Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Al-Qaida sows seed of its own decline

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Editorials & Other Articles Donate to DU
 
mgc1961 Donating Member (874 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-26-10 08:25 AM
Original message
Al-Qaida sows seed of its own decline
There is a lot of reporting on how terrorist groups get started and how they develop, but very little about how they end. Obama administration officials have been saying for weeks that its drone attacks over the past year have got al-Qaida on the run, but experts say it isn't just drone attacks that are weakening al-Qaida. The group is defeating itself.

Al-Qaida is still a serious threat, and nothing could deny the fact the group is focused on attacking the U.S. any way it can. But if history is any guide, terrorist groups can eventually burn out.

The Ways A Group Can End

Audrey Kurth Cronin, a professor at the National Defense University, lists the way such movements end.

"There are different ways that groups end, and those include decapitation, the capture or the killing of the leader," she said. "Sometimes negotiations can help lead to the end -- success which is, by the way, relatively rare; failure where groups lose popular support; and finally reorientation of the violence of a group."

In other words, the group comes to the conclusion that terrorist attacks aren't getting them any closer to their goal. That's basically what happened with the Irish Republican Army in the late 1990s. A car bombing carried out by an IRA splinter group in Omagh, Northern Ireland, in 1998 killed 29 people, including nine children. Cronin, who wrote a book called How Terrorism Ends, said that bombing sparked such outrage among the people of Northern Ireland that it gave impetus to the Good Friday peace talks.


More at http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=12...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
zipplewrath Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-26-10 09:15 AM
Response to Original message
1. 3 things
It helps tremendously if they can happen in concert.

1) The terrorists screw up. Bomb the wrong place, the wrong people, the wrong time, or anything along that line and it can "redefine" them as the folks doing the "wrong thing". These kinds of acts really undermined the '60s radicals in this country, and as the story said, undermined the IRA.

2) The money dries up. It actually takes alot of money to be terrorists on a 24/7 basis, and much of that money ends up paying to "protect" them from governments. It can lead to them being involved in relatively "common" criminal activites like gun running or the drug trade and ultimately that undermines their fund raising. Pretty soon they just become a common "gang" that occasionally does something political.

3) The issue dissolves or "morphs". Hard to work up alot of anger over violent Native America rights when they own the biggest casino in the state. Issues can pass the terrorists by. Often, attempts by the terrorists to "go mainstream" in some sense, or to go "legit", can take down the more violent aspects of their cause.

The biggest screw up that Bush made was given them the war they wanted. Ending both of them will do more than anything else to take away their purpose for being (item 3) and restrict their available funds (#2). They are already doing #1, and if we would stop doing it (bombing innocents) it will spell the beginning of the end.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
whattheidonot Donating Member (301 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-26-10 12:27 PM
Response to Original message
2. change
Al qaida stated goals of a strict conservative Islamic world will do them in. they do little good in the long run. once people have to live under them their problems would really start. Arabs have to defeat Al qaida , with our help, not the other way around. If AL Qaida is defeated in Iraq without us that is their end. We now provide a huge impetus for them. We cannot be seen to be actively fighting these wars. We cannot directly beat them.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Wed Apr 16th 2014, 05:58 AM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Editorials & Other Articles Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC