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charlyvi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 09:21 PM
Original message
Kerry Will Win Huge--Read This
Kerry will win huge
by Chris Bowers

In 162 days, John Kerry will defeat George Bush in a landslide, probably winning more than 400 electoral votes. 79 days later, John Kerry will become the 44th President of the United States. Then, it will finally be time for a Democrat to govern again.

In the 1960's, Bob Dylan wrote "The Times, They Are A-Changin'." In 1990, Tim Robbins aptly and astutely wrote, "The Times Are Changin' Back." Right now, I see no reason not to conclude the times are changing once again. Bush is facing imminent collapse, and wholesale public rejection of him, his policies and his ideology. The pendulum is swinging in the other direction; the dialectic is starting to rebalance itself. We are at the brink of a turning point in the history of this country, and from twenty-five years of ashes there will arise a new, progressive phoenix.


I am calling the election right now. Considering the numbers I see, there is no reason to do otherwise. Click on the time stamp to read my argument.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2004/5/24/221910/226
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aquart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 09:26 PM
Response to Original message
1. Kerry, a progressive phoenix?
That will be interesting.

Can I have my national health care now?
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charlyvi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 09:27 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Compared to Shrub....
He's Karl Marx.
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progdonkey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 09:28 PM
Response to Original message
3. I agree
Every historical precedent is pointing towards a sweeping defeat of Bush this November. Every election that has involved an incumbent in the past century has ended with a landslide either for or against the incumbent; there are no examples of incumbents just barely winning or losing. Also, no incumbent with approval ratings at this time in the campaign below 50% has been re-elected. So, if historical precedent is any guide, Bush will lose, and he will lose big!
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charlyvi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 09:29 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. From your lips....
To the Electoral College's ear!!!!
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DEMVET-USMC Donating Member (789 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 09:35 PM
Response to Original message
5. The Times They Are a`changing.
I agree. That song often drifts through my mind these days. We are gong to take back our Nation from the likes of BOY GEORGE and his CHICKENHAWK buddies. ...Oscar
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charlyvi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 09:36 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. LETS MAKE FDR PROUD!!!!
That's all.
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DEMVET-USMC Donating Member (789 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 09:45 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. LET`S MAKE "FDR"PROUD
Indeed, let us all do just that and throw in a little payback for what that era`s Bush and Walker families did to or Nation and the World. They helped to create the NAZIS. For this story and many others go to <www.tarpley.net >. Click unto the BUSH BIO.. ...Oscar
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MrTriumph Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 09:43 PM
Response to Original message
7. Pundit BS: "Events driven" election
Edited on Tue May-25-04 09:46 PM by MrTriumph
Hey, the talking heads have this new expression: events driven. They pontificate that Bush is not in control of the election, that future events out of his control will determine it. What BS!

Bush pushed wrong headed proposals about war, Medicare, the environment, faith-based social programs and tax breaks through a Congress that would rather "go fishin'" than ask the hard questions and rolled over a news media that was more afraid of losing sources than reporting.

With out-sourcing, high gas prices and bad tax policy the economy is going nowhere. With bad assumptions and no appreciation of reality to base decisions, prospects for the war in Iraq are dismal.

These events have been driven by none other than Geo. W. Bush. When you hear talking heads proclaim otherwise, contact them and tell them about the value of personal responsibility.
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benburch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 09:55 PM
Response to Original message
9. Lets hope (and work) for coat-tails a mile long.
We can and MUST have a Democratic sweep of the open Senate and House seats in November.

Please give to your local candidates!

Please WORK for your local candidates!

Our future depends on you!
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alcuno Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 09:56 PM
Response to Original message
10. It's not enough to win. The Repubs have to get beaten badly.
This country is completely polarized by the Republicans and they need to be shut down, at least for a time. Winning is not enough. A close election will simply continue their bombastic displays. They need to be trounced and sent scurrying back into their holes.
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Mike Niendorff Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 10:09 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. hear hear!

Don't leave them with even a shred of hope of a comeback. Hand them total defeat, total discreditation, total rejection. Don't even leave them ashes to cling to.


MDN

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Old and In the Way Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 10:24 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. Totally agree.
If we do take Congress, look for Kerry to open the dark history of our government over the last 40 years. I think we have to confront these un-American fascists once and for all. Clinton was too weak or tainted to take on the BFEE/BCCI implications.....and he didn't have a reinvigorated grass roots that we have today. But I suspect that Kerry understands that this society will never get healthy until this cancer is exposed and repudiated. The moderate Republicans have lost control of their party to Big Oil and Big Religion with the Bush family as the CEO. We have to bring it all out into the light of day and confront this evil head on if we want to really begin to make progress as a society.

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umtalal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-26-04 11:34 AM
Response to Reply #12
15. Amen n/t
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Luvpurp Donating Member (105 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-26-04 07:17 AM
Response to Original message
13. Before we get too excited
MYDD predicted that the the Dems would retain the Senate in 2002 with a chance to take back the House and was making these predictions right up to election day. Still this is a good site for horse-race analysis for lots of seats.
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Stuckinthebush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-26-04 08:17 AM
Response to Original message
14. Nice, but...
Never get cocky.

Also, these horse race numbers are not meaningful at the current levels. If Kerry had a double digit lead in most of the polls, then I'd feel good.

Don't forget, the presidency is won by electoral votes, not popular vote. We have to look at the swing states to make have an informed discussion on the state of the race today.

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yellowcanine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-26-04 11:59 AM
Response to Original message
16. I keep thinking about that 14 point lead Dukakis had over Bush in 1988....
I know, not much is the same - every election cycle has its own dynamic but that kind of is the point. This election cycle has its own dynamic - forget past elections, including pronouncements about incumbents being below 50% approval. Remember, Clinton beat Bush convincingly in electoral votes with only 43% of the vote. Weird things happen. Nader could be a factor or not. Iraq could explode or not. There could be a major terrorist strike - or several - or not. Gas prices could continue upward - or drop significantly in time to help Bush out a little. Anyone who uses the word "will", as in Bush will win, Kerry will win, etc. - is just blowing smoke. Right now my gut tells me that Kerry will probably win. But this is May. We are in a fast paced information saturated environment. A week is a long time in this environment, let alone 6 months......
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charlyvi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-26-04 12:05 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. That Was Before Willie Horton....
Bush I began trashing and trashing him; Bush* has thrown over 120 million worth of negative ads at Kerry but it hasn't worked yet. Also, Bush I wasn't an incumbent, with a shitload of bad policy behind him.
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yellowcanine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-26-04 02:41 PM
Response to Reply #17
20. But you have kind of made my point.
The unexpected happens. Look, it is just as possible that the unexpected will hurt Bush as it will help him. My point is we don't know, so let's not start picking cabinet members until after the election, please. And yes, Bush is an incumbent with a shitload of bad policy behind him - but an incumbent can benefit from events (even bad events such as a terrorist attack) as well - so again, we have to keep our powder dry and continue to do everything possible to elect Kerry - no complacency allowed.
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charlyvi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-26-04 03:10 PM
Response to Reply #20
22. I am far from
being complacent. I was pointing out to you, rightly, that Bush I did not carry the baggage * is carrying; Dukakis was ahead against an unknown quantity; Kerry has managed to stay even with a known quantity even though they have tried their best to Dukakisize him. Events can change, yes, but how * handles these events will decide the outcome of the election--and we all know how poorly he handles events. My point is that Kerry is in a stronger position now than Dukakis was then. I stand by that opinion.
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yellowcanine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-26-04 02:44 PM
Response to Reply #17
21. Your statement is kind of like saying, "My team was winning big before
that guy hit the grand slam.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-26-04 01:02 PM
Response to Original message
18. It's Not Enough To Drive the GOP From the Government...
they must also be prosecuted, to the full extent of the law, at home AND in the world courts. That's the only thing that will lay the ghosts.
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tom_paine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-26-04 01:24 PM
Response to Original message
19. This can only happen with a relatively uncorrupted voting system
I don't believe Imperial Amerika has one of those.

Just in case I am wrong, I am working like hell to try and make it happen!
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struggle4progress Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-26-04 04:06 PM
Response to Original message
23. Look, we told you months ago Kerry would win by a landslide
<snip>
The main factor causing the Presidents decline is John Kerry.

Yes, thats right. The man people are saying people havent embraced yet. The man people are saying hasnt been campaigning enough. He is the reason President Bushs numbers are tumbling.
<snip>
But the simple reality, as we said in that March 4 article, is that Kerry is not the typical liberal the Democrats have been throwing out as their candidate, nor is he the take-it-on-the-chin schmoozer Clinton was. Kerry is not from the Harvard wimp breed of Northeasterner, he is from the Boston-in-your-face breed. His war veteran status is not just a status, it is a part of who he is. In short, as we have been saying much to some peoples chagrin is that John Kerry truly is the real deal in terms of being a tough as nails war hero.

And while the entire rest of the media has ignored this factor, it has changed the perspective of the American people in terms of how they feel about President Bush and his administration. The very presence of a war hero on the other side of the aisle has taken away the free ride Bush had been given with regard to being thought of as the better choice in terms of foreign policy. Previously the American people felt they had no real alternative to consider and that Republicans were the military and the military was all Republican.
<snip>
http://www.moderateindependent.com/v2i10elections.htm


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