Iran’s Regime: Marching Toward a Cliff

[Turborama]

A special comment by Tamim Ansary, author of Destiny Disrutped: A History of the World Through Islamic Eyes

june 22nd, 2009

The Khomeinist regime in Iran is in terminal trouble; but that doesn’t mean Iran is about to repudiate Islam and become a secular democracy. In order to see where Iran is going, it’s important to see where it’s been.

In the tumult of 1978-79, master strategist Ayatollah Khomeini appropriated the nationalist impulse into his Shi’i Islamist movement. He was in a good position to do so because Shi’ism had been intertwined with “Iranianism” for over five centuries. Indeed, it was a defiant Shi’ism that set Iran apart from its powerful Ottoman and Moghul neighbors and let it emerge into history as a nation-state.

By making his brand of Islamism the face of Iranian nationalism, Khomeini combined two streams of revolutionary enthusiasm and used it to crush the third stream, the democracy movement of the secular modernists.

In the next several decades, while the world mourned the death of Iranian democracy, Khomeini and his successors made good their promise to nationalist pride and thus secured their grip on the country. They humiliated the United States; beat back Iraq; eradicated all traces foreign cultural influence in Iran; and forged a menacing state able to project its power through Lebanon into the Arab-Israeli conflict.

But recently the Khomeinists have faltered. The ascension of Ahmadinejad has hurt them. The trouble with Ahmadinejad is not that most of the world sees him as a villanous thug (that by itself could have helped him domestically.) The problem is that most of the world sees him as a laughable buffoon, a donkey: he brings shame upon the nation. And he compounded his flaws by mismanaging the economy. Iranians worried about tomorrow’s livelihood feel their country’s power and prestige waning. As a result, the regime’s ownership of the nationalist agenda erodes. If it loses that chip, it must rely purely on its Islamic credentials for legitimacy and even in Iran, that’s not enough.

http://therumpus.net/2009/06/iran’s-regime-marching-toward-a-cliff/">Continues


(I don't agree with what he says about the votes but, as he himself writes, "that no longer matters")

Edited to fix the link.

[IndianaGreen]

1. K&R

By appearing to commit a blatant dishonesty in order to put his own man in the drivers seat, Khamenei has cost himself an aura of impregnable authority, and this will hurt him because, for all the military and police resources at his command, the Supreme Leader’s authority ultimately derives from rectitude and religious learning, not bodyguards and guns. As soon as people stop believing in his rectitude, guns won’t save him.

http://therumpus.net/2009/06/iran’s-regime-marching-toward-a-cliff/

Right on target! I also read that Khamenei has lung cancer and that he stole the election to get his son to succeed him. Of course, this will make the system look like a monarchy, not a republic.

[chimpymustgo]

2. There is so much we have to learn about Iran. Great analysis - and wow - on the Khameni lung cancer

Where did you read that, IG?

[Turborama]

4. Did you catch the thread about the Iran documentaries?

If not, here's the link...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x5891705

Very insightful viewing.

[chimpymustgo]

5. Thanks, I'll take a look tonight.

[IndianaGreen]

6. Huffington Post's Iran blog

But the story can be googled in several places:

It says Khamenai has lung cancer and wanted to have his son as Supreme Leader (the position that Rafsanjani wants), and that the attempt to alter the election results was done in an attempt by Khamenei to eventually allow his son Mojtaba to replace him. It says that at the core the argument is not just about Mousavi but the overall system of government, as it's becoming a like Monarchy rather than a republic. So far, it says, most of the clerics have not accepted Ahmadinejad presidency, and quotes Ayatollah Javadi Amoly saying of the attack on Tehran University students, 'no Muslim will destroy another's property, they must be foreigners.'

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/kpete/10037

It is being said that the reason for the coup d'etat is Khamenei's growing health problems and the severity of his lung cancer. His son Mojtaba wanted to keep the role of Supreme Leader in the family and needed the presidential power to be sympathetic and close to home on the issue.

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/rafsanjanis-40-ctd.html

[provis99]

3. where'd you read about Khamenei making his son his successor?

I'd like to see that; it would be really important in showing the current regime is nothing but an updated version of the Pahlavi Shah regime.

[IndianaGreen]

7. Please read post #6

for the info on Khamenei's lung cancer.