WORLD NEWS TRUST: Presto Change-o (James Kunstler)

[Tace]

James Kunstler -- World News Trust

Nov. 10, 2008 -- As the election campaign ground on like a 3000-mile race between a greyhound and an armadillo, the media kept harping on Barack Obama's vague promises of "change." We now know what the main promise was: regime change, right here in the USA, not in some place where the natives wear strange headgear. Mr. Obama's victory was a moment of epochal exhilaration, not least because he appears to be a decent and intelligent person self-made from a humble background -- someone who has personally bought tube socks in the K-mart, worried about money, and made many trips in a subway car.

The current occupant of the White House, however, has sedulously prepared for his successor the biggest shit sandwich the world has ever seen, and there is naturally some concern that Mr. Obama might choke on it. The dilemma is essentially this: the consumer economy we all knew and loved has died. There will be pressure from nearly every quarter to keep it hooked up to the costly life support machines even though it is dead. A different economy is waiting to be born, but it is nothing like the one that has died. The economy-to-come is one of rigor and austerity. It is not the kind of thing that a nation of overfed clowns is used to. Do we even have a prayer of getting to it, or are we going to squander our dwindling resources on life support for something that is already dead?

A case in point: the car industry. The Big Three, all functionally bankrupt, are now lined up for bail-outs from the treasury's bottomless checking account. Personally, I believe the age of Happy Motoring is over. Many Americans have already bought their last car -- they just don't know it yet. The current low-ish price of oil is a total fake-out, having to do much more with asset-dumping in the paper markets than the true resource supply-demand equation. Most of the world (the media for sure) has ignored preliminary leaks from the International Energy Agency's (IEA) forthcoming report which forecasts global oil depletion to be 9.1 percent in 2009. This is a staggering figure, very likely to offset whatever slack we see in global demand from the worldwide economic crisis. In fact, the global oil markets are poised for the most severe dislocations ever seen, meaning it's a toss-up what happens first in the USA: a major leg back up in oil prices, or shortages, hoarding, and rationing.

For my money (literally) there are only two main reasons that any portion of the car industry should be rescued at the present time: one, because we need somebody to manufacture engines for military vehicles, and two, because we need somebody to manufacture rolling stock for the revival in passenger railroad service that will have to be a centerpiece of the future economy if we want to remain a civilized nation.

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http://www.worldnewstrust.com/wnt-reports/commentary/presto-change-o-james-kunstler.html

[villager]

1. I agree with him about "door number two," as the main reason to keep those companies...

...alive.

We don't need more SUVs, finally. But we will need rolling stock. And soon.

[Tace]

3. I'm For That

One of the things I agree with Kunstler about is the need for a revamped rail system.

[Eurobabe]

4. I'm hoping Biden will push that agenda = Mr. Amtrak

[teknomanzer]

6. We made a mistake in the 1950's

Spending money to build interstate highway system which should have been used to improve the US rail system. The US has piss poor public transit systems because we opted for airlines and autos. Both became lumbering giants unable to sustain themselves with bailout after bailout - corporate welfare. We also missed another opportunity in the 70's and 80's when we could have gotten a jump start on green technology. Now the change will have to be swift and painful because the clock is running out on the petroleum based industrial age.

[tblue]

2. "The current low-ish price of oil is a total fake-out"

Yep. We are in for a wild ride. But it's the only way out of this mess. At least we'll have someone with a brain in his head to lead us out of the mire.

[katty]

5. shit sandwich, life support, fake-out...yup all that & more