THE MATH Weekly – For Two Weeks Ending Sunday, Oct 12 – Obama 380, McCain 158

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THE MATH Weekly – For the Two Weeks Ending Sunday, October 12, 2008


Contents:
1. Current Stats
2. Electoral Votes
3. Strength of Electoral Votes
4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004
5. Popular Vote
6. National Polls
7. Obama’s Seventeen
8. Trading and the Wigand Electoral Average
9. This Week’s State Polls (Detail)
10. Probabilities and Potentials
11. Sources and Links







1. Current Stats

With only 23 days remaining until the election, the stock markets have crashed around the world but John McCain refuses to talk about the economy for fear of losing the election. Almost all of McCain’s ads are negative, and hatred is creeping out of his campaign rallies in an atmosphere that can be described as “ripe for racism.” This has reverberated with voters, and Barack Obama has taken and held double-digit leads in many national polls over the past week. Obama has won both of his debates with McCain so far, and Joe Biden won his debate with Sarah Palin, who has been found by an independent investigator to have abused her power as Alaska Governor in the Troopergate Scandal.

States moving to the left this week are: Florida (27), Georgia (15), Iowa (7), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (20), Pennsylvania (21), Virginia (13) and West Virginia (5). No states moved to the right this week. Florida, Missouri, Nevada and Ohio all switched sides this week, red to blue.


Election Day: Tuesday, November 4, 2008


Number of Days Until the Election: 23 days


Current Projected Electoral Votes:
Obama – 380
McCain – 158
Needed to Win – 270


Current Projected Popular Vote:
Obama – 66,974,190 … (49.0%) … (+5,284,845)
McCain – 61,689,345 … (45.1%)
Barr – 3,467,579 … (2.5%)
Nader – 2,959,762 … (2.2%)
McKinney – 273,352 … (0.2%)
Undecided/Other – 1,584,992 … (1.2%)


Swing States Leaning:
Obama – 63.01%
McCain – 36.99%


Projected Popular Vote if Undecideds Break the Same as Swing States:
Obama – 67,972,735 … (49.6%) … (+5,696,943)
McCain – 62,275,792 … (45.5%)
All Others – 6,700,693 … (4.9%)


Probability of Obama Win – 100.0% (if the election were held today)


Strength of Projection – 95.2%



^ FIGURE 1a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ FIGURE 1b. This chart shows the seats projected to be picked up by Democrats in November in Congress. The projection is from Electionprojection.com.




2. Electoral Votes (270 needed to win)

Obama is currently winning 57.4% of the electoral votes outside of the margin of error, compared to McCain’s 29.4%. The number of electoral votes within the margin of error shrinks to 71 this week. Once we consider Obama’s lead in the swing states (63.0%-37.0%) and add how well he is doing in the states within the margin of error (momentum), his electoral vote projection arrives at 380, up from 339 two weeks ago.



^ FIGURE 2a. This chart shows the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%). A pie chart is used to illustrate the percentage of the total 538 electoral votes up for grabs this year.



^ FIGURE 2b. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and the possible route for the next seven days.







3. Strength of Electoral Votes

The electoral votes from states within the margin of error dropped from 137 electoral votes two weeks ago to 71 electoral votes this week. West Virginia (5) moved into the margin of error this week, while Florida (27), Minnesota (10), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (21) and Virginia (13) moved out.



^ FIGURE 3a. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%). A pie chart is used to illustrate the overall percentage of the electoral votes in each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak” means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows the weekly tracking of the five categories of strength for the electoral votes. The dark blue line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Strong Obama category (Obama leading by 10% or greater). The light blue line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Weak Obama category (Obama leading between 5% and 9%). The yellow line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the margin of error (either candidate leading by 4% or less). The pink line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Weak McCain category (McCain leading between 5% and 9%). The red line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Strong McCain category (McCain leading by 10% or greater).



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate sorted into each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak” means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error and is referred to as “Lean.”




4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004

At this point in 2004, John Kerry was trailing George W. Bush 260 electoral votes to 274 electoral votes, with 4 tied. Comparing Obama’s projection to Kerry’s in 2004, we see that Obama has 150 more Strong electoral votes now than Kerry had at this point then. And Obama has 27 fewer Weak electoral votes than Kerry had then. There are also 63 fewer electoral votes within the margin of error than there were at this point in 2004. Bush was stronger in 2004 than McCain is now, as Bush had 14 more Strong electoral votes and 46 more Weak electoral votes then.



^ FIGURE 4a. Electoral-Vote.com is a valuable source for electoral vote tracking. This graph shows the electoral progress of the 2004 election between John Kerry and George Bush, along with descriptions of factors that seems to have changed the course of the race. I include on the left side a snapshot of the electoral vote projection for each candidate on this date back in 2004.



^ FIGURE 4b. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%) on this date in 2004 (Kerry vs. Bush). A pie chart is used to illustrate the overall percentage of the electoral votes in each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error.



^ FIGURE 4c. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com.) Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the near future.




5. Popular Vote

Obama is currently projected to win 49.0% of the popular vote, and he is leading McCain by 3.9%. Barr is taking 2.5% of the vote, while Nader is polling at 2.2% and McKinney is polling at 0.2%. The percentage of Undecideds dropped this week to 1.2%. Factoring in the swing states to get an idea how the Undecideds will vote, Obama’s projected popular vote margin increases to 4.1%.



^ FIGURE 5a. This chart shows the percentage of the projected popular vote for each candidate with a percentage still undecided. A pie chart is used to illustrate the percentage of the projected 126 million votes up for grabs this year.



^ FIGURE 5b. I am projecting 136 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth and new voter registration totals for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations in millions as well as the percentages. The scale is between 0 and 136 (in millions), and a majority of votes (half) would be 68 million votes.



^ FIGURE 5c. I am projecting 126 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the weekly tracking of the total popular vote percentages, and compares them to the final percentages received by past Democratic candidates. The scale is 0 to 100%, with a majority being 50%.



^ FIGURE 5d. This graph from FiveThirtyEight.com shows a correlation between a candidate’s lead in the popular vote and that candidate’s probability of winning the electoral vote and the election, if the election were held today.




6. National Polls

The national daily tracking polls are a good indicator of the projected popular vote, and there is a correlation between the lead in popular vote and the probability of winning the electoral vote. A three-point lead in a national poll would correlate to a 97% probability of winning the electoral vote, according to FiveThirtyEight.com.

Gallup’s daily tracking average for Obama jumps two percentage points to 51% this week, while Rasmussen’s daily tracking average for Obama moves up two percentage points to 52%. Meanwhile, DailyKos & Research 2000’s daily tracking average for Obama increases three percentage points to 52% and the Diageo/Hotline daily tracking average for Obama moves up two percentage points to 50%. The Real Clear Politics Average this week is 49.9% for Obama, which is an increase of 2.0% from last week. Obama is now leading McCain in Gallup by 9%, leading by 7% in Rasmussen, leading by 12% in Research 2000, leading by 10% in Hotline and leading by 7.6% in RCP.

The Daily Trackers showed Obama leading by 4.5% two weeks ago as a whole, but his lead jumps on average to 8.3% in the Daily Trackers this week. That’s a 3.8% turnaround in two weeks. In the Big 12 National Monthly Polls, Obama’s lead grew from 3.3% two weeks ago to 5.3% this week on average. Looking at all national polling together, Obama went from leading by 3.7% overall last week to leading by 6.3% overall this week, a jump of 2.6%.



^ FIGURE 6a. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.



^ FIGURE 6b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.



^ FIGURE 6c. The national daily tracking polls are indicators of the potential popular vote lead for a candidate. This graph compares the trend lines of Obama’s lead in the national daily tracking polls and averages with my projected trend line of Obama’s lead in the popular vote. The red line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Gallup Daily Tracking polls. The purple line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Rasmussen Daily Tracking polls (with leaners). The blue line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Real Clear Politics’ aggregate state poll average. The dark green line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from my daily projection of each candidate’s popular vote, based on state polls and projected votes on election day in each state. The light green line shows my actual daily tracking of Obama’s popular vote lead over McCain. Taking all these daily tracking items together, we can see a true range of Obama’s lead over McCain over time and a possible trend for the future of this race.




7. Obama’s Seventeen

Overall trading for the 17 states that the Obama Campaign is targeting this year leaped 182.40 points to 1073.50 this week, an increase of 10.7%. This is above the majority mark of 850.00. All states gained ground this week except for Montana (3).

Figure 7c below shows how all 17 states are polling together as a group over time. Barack Obama’s trend line is soaring above 51% in that graph, while John McCain’s trend line is plummeting below 43%.



^ FIGURE 7a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.



^ FIGURE 7b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.



^ FIGURE 7c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.




8. Trading and the Wigand Electoral Average

Obama’s Intrade shares closed at 77.3, up from 56.4 two weeks ago. His shares on Rasmussen Markets rose from 57.5 to 77.3 this week. Our Wigand Electoral Average leaped from 52.23 two weeks ago to 63.20 this week for Obama, as Florida, Missouri, Nevada and Ohio moved into Obama’s territory and Indiana began trading with an Obama majority.

Overall trading for our 12 swing states in the Wigand Electoral Average jumps 103.60 this week to 750.00 for Obama, well above the majority mark of 600.00. All states gained ground this week. Obama is leading McCain overall in our 12 swing states by a margin of 63.0% to 37.0%. This is up 9.1 percentage points from two weeks ago for Obama.



^ FIGURE 8a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 8b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). The scale is 0 to 1200, with 600 being a majority. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 8c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 8d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.




9. This Week’s State Polls (Detail)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)



^ Probability of winning a state, found by cross-referencing a
candidate’s percentage lead with the poll’s margin of error.


Alabama Obama 35, McCain 55 (AEA/Capital Survey, 10/6, +/- 4.1, 554 LV)
Alabama Obama 35, McCain 62 (Survey USA, 10/9, +/- 3.7, 697 LV)
Alaska Obama 38, McCain 55 (Moore Research, 10/5, +/- 4.4, 500 LV)
Alaska Obama 40, McCain 55 (Rasmussen, 10/6, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Arizona Obama 38, McCain 45 (ASU/Cronkite, 9/27, +/- 3.1, 976 RV)
Arizona Obama 38, McCain 59 (Rasmussen, 9/29, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
California Obama 55, McCain 39 (Survey USA, 10/5, +/- 3.8, 670 LV)
Colorado Obama 44, McCain 43 (Ciruli Associates, 9/21, +/- 4.4, 501 RV)
Colorado Obama 49, McCain 48 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/28, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Colorado Obama 44, McCain 44 (Mason-Dixon, 10/1, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Colorado Obama 51, McCain 45, B1, N1, M1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/5, +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Colorado Obama 51, McCain 45 (Insider Advantage, 10/6, +/- 5.0, 485 LV)
Connecticut Obama 49, McCain 35 (Pulsar Research, 9/21, +/- 4.4, 500 LV)
Connecticut Obama 54, McCain 38 (Survey USA, 9/25, +/- 3.8, 686 LV)
Delaware Obama 55.5, McCain 38.4 (West Chester University, 10/7, +/- 5.0, 429 LV)
Florida Obama 47, McCain 48 (Survey USA, 9/28, +/- 4.1, 599 LV)
Florida Obama 47, McCain 47 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/28, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Florida Obama 49, McCain 46 (Public Policy Polling, 9/28, +/- 3.2, 941 LV)
Florida Obama 51, McCain 43 (Quinnipiac University, 9/29, +/- 2.9, 836 LV)
Florida Obama 46, McCain 42 (Suffolk University, 9/30, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Florida Obama 51, McCain 43, B1, N3, M1 (CNN/Time, 9/30, +/- 3.5, 770 LV)
Florida Obama 49, McCain 46 (Insider Advantage, 9/30, +/- 4.0, 532 LV)
Florida Obama 52, McCain 45, B0, N1, M0 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/5, +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Florida Obama 48, McCain 46 (Mason-Dixon, 10/5, +/- 4.0, 625 RV)
Florida Obama 49, McCain 44 (Research 2000, 10/7, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Florida Obama 50, McCain 47 (Rasmussen, 10/8, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Florida Obama 52, McCain 44 (Strategic Vision, 10/8, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Georgia Obama 44, McCain 52 (Survey USA, 9/29, +/- 3.8, 677 LV)
Georgia Obama 44, McCain 50 (Insider Advantage, 9/30, +/- 4.0, 561 LV)
Georgia Obama 43, McCain 50 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/1, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Georgia Obama 45, McCain 54 (Rasmussen, 10/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Georgia Obama 43, McCain 50 (Strategic Vision, 10/7, +/- 3.0, 800 LV)
Georgia Obama 46, McCain 49 (Insider Advantage, 10/9, +/- 4.0, 531 LV)
Indiana Obama 45, McCain 48 (Survey USA, 9/29, +/- 3.8, 687 LV)
Indiana Obama 45, McCain 46 (Research 2000, 9/30, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Indiana Obama 46, McCain 46 (Research 2000, 10/1, +/- 3.5, 800 LV)
Indiana Obama 46, McCain 48, B5, N0, M0 (CNN/Time, 10/6, +/- 4.0, 667 LV)
Indiana Obama 43, McCain 50 (Rasmussen, 10/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Iowa Obama 55, McCain 39 (Research 2000, 9/30, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Iowa Obama 54, McCain 41 (Survey USA, 10/9, +/- 3.8, 692 LV)
Kentucky Obama 41, McCain 53 (Mason-Dixon, 9/25, +/- 3.7, 717 LV)
Kentucky Obama 42, McCain 52 (Rasmussen, 9/30, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Maine Obama 51, McCain 46 (Rasmussen, 10/2, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Michigan Obama 51, McCain 41 (Public Policy Polling, 10/1, +/- 3.6, 731 LV)
Michigan Obama 56, McCain 40 (Rasmussen, 10/8, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Minnesota Obama 53, McCain 41, B1, N2, M0 (CNN/Time, 9/30, +/- 3.5, 849 LV)
Minnesota Obama 46, McCain 47 (Survey USA, 10/1, +/- 3.7, 725 LV)
Minnesota Obama 55, McCain 37 (Star-Tribune, 10/2, +/- 3.7, 1084 LV)
Minnesota Obama 54, McCain 40 (MN Public Radio, 10/5, +/- 4.8, 418 LV)
Minnesota Obama 52, McCain 45 (Rasmussen, 10/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Minnesota Obama 47, McCain 46 (American Research Group, 10/7, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Mississippi Obama 44, McCain 52 (Rasmussen, 9/30, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Missouri Obama 47, McCain 46, B2, N2, M0 (CNN/Time, 9/30, +/- 3.5, 744 LV)
Missouri Obama 50, McCain 47, B1, N1, M0 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/5, +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Missouri Obama 46, McCain 49 (American Research Group, 10/6, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Montana Obama 44, McCain 52 (Rasmussen, 10/1, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Montana Obama 45, McCain 50 (American Research Group, 10/8, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Nebraska Obama 37, McCain 56 (Rasmussen, 9/30, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Nevada Obama 47, McCain 49 (American Research Group, 9/28, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Nevada Obama 49, McCain 44, B1, N4, M0 (CNN/Time, 9/30, +/- 4.0, 684 LV)
Nevada Obama 48, McCain 47 (Insider Advantage, 9/30, +/- 5.0, 437 LV)
Nevada Obama 51, McCain 47 (Rasmussen, 10/2, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Nevada Obama 49, McCain 47 (Insider Advantage, 10/6, +/- 5.0, 468 LV)
Nevada Obama 50, McCain 43 (Research 2000, 10/6, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 49, McCain 37 (St. Anselm College, 9/30, +/- 3.5, 823 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 53, McCain 43 (Rasmussen, 10/2, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 53, McCain 40 (Survey USA, 10/5, +/- 3.9, 647 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 51, McCain 43, B3, N1, M0 (CNN/Time, 10/6, +/- 3.5, 813 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 52, McCain 43 (American Research Group, 10/8, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Jersey Obama 48, McCain 39 (Strategic Vision, 9/27, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
New Jersey Obama 52, McCain 42 (Survey USA, 9/28, +/- 4.0, 611 LV)
New Jersey Obama 50, McCain 37 (Farleigh Dickinson, 10/2, +/- 3.5, 790 LV)
New Jersey Obama 50, McCain 42 (Rasmussen, 10/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
New Mexico Obama 45, McCain 40 (Albuquerque Journal, 9/26, +/- 3.8, 659 LV)
New Mexico Obama 52, McCain 44 (Survey USA, 9/30, +/- 3.8, 698 LV)
New Mexico Obama 49, McCain 44 (Rasmussen, 10/1, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
New York Obama 58, McCain 36 (Siena College, 9/29, +/- 4.0, 631 RV)
North Carolina Obama 46, McCain 49 (American Research Group, 9/28, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
North Carolina Obama 47, McCain 45, Barr 3 (Public Policy Polling, 9/29, +/- 3.0, 1041 LV)
North Carolina Obama 50, McCain 47 (Rasmussen, 9/30, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
North Carolina Obama 44, McCain 42 (Elon University, 9/30, +/- 4.6, 477 RV)
North Carolina Obama 50, McCain 44, Barr 2 (Public Policy Polling, 10/5, +/- 2.8, 1202 LV)
North Carolina Obama 49, McCain 48, B2, N0, M0 (CNN/Time, 10/6, +/- 4.0, 666 LV)
North Carolina Obama 46, McCain 49 (Survey USA, 10/6, +/- 4.0, 617 LV)
North Carolina Obama 48, McCain 43 (Civitas/TelOpinion, 10/7, +/- 4.0, 598 LV)
North Carolina Obama 46.0, McCain 47.8 (WSOC-TV, 10/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
North Carolina Obama 49, McCain 48 (Rasmussen, 10/8, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Ohio Obama 47, McCain 48 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/28, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Ohio Obama 48, McCain 49 (Survey USA, 9/29, +/- 3.8, 693 LV)
Ohio Obama 47, McCain 45 (Insider Advantage, 9/29, +/- 4.0, 512 LV)
Ohio Obama 50, McCain 42 (Quinnipiac University, 9/29, +/- 3.4, 825 LV)
Ohio Obama 49, McCain 42 (Columbus Dispatch, 9/30, +/- 2.0, 2262 LV)
Ohio Obama 49, McCain 43 (Democracy Corps, 10/1, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Ohio Obama 47, McCain 48, B1, N1, M0 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/5, +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Ohio Obama 51, McCain 45 (ABC News/Wash Post, 10/5, +/- 3.5, 772 LV)
Ohio Obama 49, McCain 43 (Public Policy Polling, 10/5, +/- 2.8, 1239 LV)
Ohio Obama 48, McCain 45, B2, N3, M0 (CNN/Time, 10/6, +/- 3.5, 749 LV)
Ohio Obama 46, McCain 48 (University of Cincinnati, 10/6, +/- 3.0, 876 LV)
Ohio Obama 48, McCain 45 (American Research Group, 10/7, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Ohio Obama 48, McCain 46 (Strategic Vision, 10/8, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Ohio Obama 49, McCain 44 (Insider Advantage, 10/9, +/- 4.0, 509 LV)
Oklahoma Obama 34, McCain 64 (Survey USA, 9/29, +/- 3.8, 656 LV)
Oklahoma Obama 29, McCain 66 (TvPoll.com, 10/5, +/- 3.5, 801 LV)
Oregon Obama 54, McCain 43 (Rasmussen, 10/9, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 49, McCain 42 (Muhlenberg College, 9/26, +/- 4.5, 581 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 48, McCain 43 (Franklin & Marshall, 9/26, +/- 3.5, 767 RV)
Pennsylvania Obama 50, McCain 42 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/28, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 49, McCain 41 (Morning Call, 9/28, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 54, McCain 39 (Quinnipiac University, 9/29, +/- 3.4, 832 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 50, McCain 41 (Muhlenberg College, 10/1, +/- 4.0, 610 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 50, McCain 40 (Morning Call, 10/2, +/- 4.0, 602 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 51, McCain 39 (Muhlenberg College, 10/3, +/- 4.0, 597 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 50, McCain 40 (Morning Call, 10/4, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 49, McCain 38 (Muhlenberg College, 10/5, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 52, McCain 42 (West Chester University, 10/5, +/- 4.5, 504 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 55, McCain 40 (Survey USA, 10/6, +/- 3.9, 653 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 48, McCain 38 (Morning Call, 10/6, +/- 4.0, 589 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 54, McCain 41 (Rasmussen, 10/6, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 50, McCain 38 (Muhlenberg College, 10/7, +/- 4.0, 602 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 54, McCain 40 (Strategic Vision, 10/7, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 51, McCain 38 (Morning Call, 10/8, +/- 4.0, 602 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 50, McCain 39 (Muhlenberg College, 10/9, +/- 4.0, 602 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 52, McCain 40 (Morning Call, 10/10, +/- 4.0, 602 LV)
Tennessee Obama 36, McCain 48 (Middle TN State U, 9/21, +/- 4.0, 635 RV)
Tennessee Obama 39, McCain 55 (Mason-Dixon, 9/24, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Tennessee Obama 39, McCain 58 (Rasmussen, 9/29, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Texas Obama 43, McCain 52 (Rasmussen, 9/29, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Texas Obama 38, McCain 57 (American Research Group, 10/8, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Vermont Obama 65, McCain 32 (Rasmussen, 10/6, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Virginia Obama 50, McCain 47 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/28, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Virginia Obama 46, McCain 49 (American Research Group, 9/28, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Virginia Obama 51, McCain 45 (Insider Advantage, 9/29, +/- 5.0, 436 LV)
Virginia Obama 52, McCain 42, B2, N2, M0 (CNN/Time, 9/30, +/- 4.0, 684 LV)
Virginia Obama 45, McCain 48 (Mason-Dixon, 10/1, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Virginia Obama 51, McCain 39 (Suffolk University, 10/5, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Virginia Obama 53, McCain 43 (Survey USA, 10/5, +/- 3.9, 666 LV)
Virginia Obama 50, McCain 48, B1, N0, M0 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/5, +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Virginia Obama 51, McCain 43 (Public Policy Polling, 10/7, +/- 3.2, 917 LV)
Washington Obama 53, McCain 43 (Rasmussen, 10/2, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
West Virginia Obama 50, McCain 42 (American Research Group, 10/8, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 49, McCain 40 (Strategic Vision, 9/26, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 50, McCain 42, B4, N1, M0 (CNN/Time, 10/6, +/- 3.5, 859 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 52, McCain 42 (Survey USA, 10/6, +/- 3.9, 672 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 54, McCain 44 (Rasmussen, 10/6, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 51, McCain 41 (Research 2000, 10/6, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)




10. Probabilities and Potentials

The difference between each candidate’s Potential Electoral Votes Advantage provides a keen insight into how they are doing against each other nationwide. Obama’s potential advantage is 70.6%, while McCain’s potential advantage is 42.6%. The difference in potential advantages is Obama +28.1% (up from +13.9% two weeks ago). McCain’s potential advantage fell by 13 percentage points this week, while Obama’s potential advantage rose by 1 percentage point.

At this point in 2004, Kerry’s potential advantage was 59.5% and Bush’s potential advantage was 65.4%. Kerry trailed Bush by 5.9% in potential advantages four years ago, compared to Obama’s +28.1% lead in potential advantages now.


Highly Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 245 … (45.5%)
McCain – 134 … (24.9%)

Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 309 … (57.4%)
McCain – 158 … (29.4%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 380 … (70.6%)
McCain – 158 … (29.4%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 309 … (57.4%)
McCain – 229 … (42.6%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 404 … (75.1%)
McCain – 134 … (24.9%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 245 … (45.5%)
McCain – 293 … (54.5%)


“Highly Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling at >10% (Strong states only). “Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling beyond the margin of error (Strong and Weak states).

“Potential” electoral votes are the same as probable states, but then we add the states polling within the margin of error to give one candidate an advantage. In this scenario, one candidate takes the states where they are polling strong and weak, and also takes all the margin-of-error states.

“Blowout” electoral votes would give one candidate only their strong states (>10%) and the other candidate would win all the other states. An example would be if Obama were to win in all his base states, all the swing states, and all the states where McCain was polling weak.




11. Sources and Links

THE MATH:
Read Last Week’s Edition
Monday’s Daily Widget
Tuesday’s Daily Widget
Wednesday’s Daily Widget
Thursday’s Daily Widget
Friday’s Daily Widget

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
Electionprojection.com
3 Blue Dudes


As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything! Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du


.

[Lochloosa]

1. Good mornig phrigndumass

Nice trend lines...

[phrigndumass]

3. Good morning to you, Lochloosa :)

:donut: :hi:

[mucifer]

2. Thank Phrig! Your posts always make me feel good.

I had a great time yesterday canvassing in Gary Indiana! Lots of enthusiasm. I mean it was ridiculous. It's a VERY economically depressed area. We had no negative responses. But, then again it's segregated out there we didn't canvass one white person. Lots of people answered the door with a smile saying "I already registered to vote". I think they've been heavily canvassed there but they don't mind seeing us again. I know there are plenty of parts of Indiana that are VERY red. But, Gary is great!

[phrigndumass]

4. "I already registered to vote" ... in Gary IN! Wow!

That's a very good sign :D

Thanks for working for Obama there!

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

5. Good morning!

Great work :)

I still don't agree with the Maine polls. Though I know that you are not the one conducting them. Maybe I just live in an area that really loves Obama, but I see signs everywhere and everyone I know is voting for him or has already in early voting.

[phrigndumass]

6. Happy Sunday :)

I think on election day Obama will have a wider gap over McCain in Maine. It might help Allen as well (fingers crossed) :D

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi: :bounce:

[rosesaylavee]

7. Great way to start the day1

Thanks for doing this for us!

K & R

[phrigndumass]

10. yw :)

:hi:

[trthnd4jstc]

8. Thanks for the work. Wow! n/t

[phrigndumass]

20. yw :)

:hi:

[Parentalcontrol]

9. That's what I call a royal ass-whoopping

Reminiscent of Clinton's victory over Dole.

[grantcart]

11. whew still hanging on in Vermont

9 straight polls in Florida showing an Obama lead


Can Florida keep it straight this time?


Governor (happily engaged) Crisppy not spending anymore time at McCain rallies.


This has to be the highpoint.


Those lists of state polls are so dramatic.


Thanks.

[phrigndumass]

12. I really hope we can hang on to Vermont on election day

A 33 point lead is a little too close for my liking. We need to remember, though, that we shouldn't be complacent and Obama certainly can't win Vermont unless all the votes are counted.

(this could be the inspiration for a snark post, lol)

[psychmommy]

13. f'in yeah phrig.

you have kept me encouraged even when things were getting stagnant. i am so excited now. i like some sports and i know how things can change with 2 minutes left, so i won't get complacent. it just makes me wanna scream to see these numbers. thank you so much phrig, grantcart and dbmk. the funniest part is that mccain is a gambler-don't you think the intrade numbers are killing him the most. hahaha (insert evil laugh)

[phrigndumass]

14. McCain needs to be careful, lol ... he could gamble away all of Cindy's money

or lose it in the stock market or something ... Maybe McCain will talk about the economy more when he receives one of his quarterly investment statements in the mail this week.

These trends are very real, and I'm excited about them myself! :D

:hi:

[dbmk]

15. It makes me immensely proud

..to have taken just the tiniest part in this.

And from what I read on the potentials, onlty a blowout saves McCain now - given the definitions used?

[phrigndumass]

18. Your part is much bigger than you think :)

Freeing up my time with your programming has enabled me to post these stats with ease, and it also gives me time to dig a bit deeper into them. You gave the gift of time!

:yourock:

You're right about McCain ... he would need to grab several of Obama's safe states (weak blue) and everything to the right of it to have a chance. It's possible to do that in 23 days, but definitely not probable, not in this political climate.

:hi:

[yellerpup]

16. You set the table with the most delicious stats!

Thanks, phrig! :donut: I'm satisfied! K&R! :dem:

[phrigndumass]

19. Strap on a feed bag and dig in!

It's an early Thanksgiving, lol

:hi:

[yellerpup]

22. Hey, I'm there!

:hi:

[JeffR]

17. After 8 years of fuzzy math

it's nice to see math reclaimed & rehabilitated by the good guys.

[phrigndumass]

21. Does that make this "new math"?

:7

Thanks! :hi:

[mackerel]

23. lol

[JeffR]

24. New and much improved!

:hi: