Eugene Robinson: Oprah Endorsement Can Keep Obama Rolling

[babylonsister]

Oprah Endorsement Can Keep Obama Rolling
By Eugene Robinson


WASHINGTON -- The conventional wisdom says that celebrity endorsements don't mean much in politics. But the conventional wisdom also says that enormously long, difficult novels published more than a century ago don't suddenly become best-sellers today. Now we're about to see whether the "Oprah effect" can do for Barack Obama what it did for Leo Tolstoy.

The Obama campaign's announcement Monday that Oprah Winfrey will barnstorm the early primary states with the candidate she has called "my favorite guy" was big news in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Theoretically, the active support of a popular talk-show host shouldn't have much impact on Obama's prospects one way or the other. But we're talking Oprah here.

The Pew Research Center actually polled on the subject in September, shortly after Winfrey hosted a star-studded fundraiser that netted an estimated $3 million for Obama's campaign. According to the Pew survey, 15 percent of Americans said that Winfrey's endorsement would make them more likely to vote for Obama, 15 percent said less likely, and 69 percent said it would make no difference to them.

But 60 percent of respondents predicted that Winfrey's support would help Obama's candidacy, against only 3 percent who said it would hurt. And among Democrats -- who, after all, are the voters who count at this point-- 23 percent said they would be more likely to vote for Obama because of Winfrey's support, while just 13 percent said they'd be less likely to vote for him.

The Pew survey found that Winfrey's endorsement also gives Obama a boost among women (17 percent more likely to vote for him, 12 percent less likely) and African-Americans (28 percent more likely, 16 percent less likely) -- groups now leaning toward front-runner Hillary Clinton.

more...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/11/oprahs_endorsement_can_keep_ob.html