The New Comeback Kid-Hillary Clinton is building a firewall in New Hampshire.

[rodeodance]

http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=f71658ab-17b3-4c51-b852-5046e32a287a
The New Comeback Kid

Hillary's plan to win it all in New Hampshire.

E.J. Dionne, Jr, The New Republic Published: Friday, October 26, 2007


Quietly but systematically, Hillary Clinton is building a firewall in New Hampshire. She can afford to lose the Iowa caucuses as long as she can win here. She can't afford to lose both states.

As a result, say Democrats with long experience in state politics, Clinton has been doing everything "the New Hampshire way." She has carefully cultivated strong personal ties that go back to her husband's 1992 campaign and has built an organization with deep local roots. Although a victory by Barack Obama in Iowa could still propel him to a triumph here, Clinton is setting herself up to withstand an Obama surge by using New Hampshire to become, if necessary, the second Comeback Kid.

The latest poll of likely Democratic primary voters, released on Thursday by the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College, found Clinton with a commanding 42.6 percent. Obama had 21.5 percent and John Edwards, 13.9 percent.

Clinton's advantage reflects the difficulties Obama has had in turning the enthusiasm he created in the early days of his campaign into enduring support. "Barack seems flat," said Arnie Arnesen, a former Democratic candidate for governor who is now a broadcaster and commentator. "The magic we experienced in December hasn't been sustained."

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[PATRICK]

1. Dione I know about and also the NR

So who is Arnie Arnesen, a losing candidate for governor that we should give any real weight to this opinion?

OK I got off my cramped fingers and Googled. She is about to be an ex-broadcaster as well because her liberalism has touched upon issues unhealthy to some of the advertisers such as big cars. Sounds a little discouraged of late and it might rub off on her view of the candidate she supports if it is Obama. I wonder how she got to talk to Dionne in the first place and how she rates as having her finger on the pulse of things in her state?

Interesting, but then I have always said Obama has had the unenviable position of a young first-timer to overcome. A serious shot at the presidency always meant that big passionate risks would have to be taken with the result of failure being most probable. Calculations with less risk on the contrary are likely to have the smallest chances of success despite substituting greenness with caution. If he wanted to be president there was no sure way out than to blaze a path like the human torch. The soft poison of DLC was/is there to tip the balance against his chances as well. That whole influence automatically makes him a mere alternate to Hillary. His personal character may also militate against the winning gambit.

This being his first run, so long as he makes more friends than foes, will not damage a future shot significantly. That also means he has to show just how committed he is to actually winning THIS time. By trying not show his freshness the contrarily supports the illusion that Hillary is not also a greenhorn who before this has had two sleepwalking elections. Races are not necessarily run by the tortoises. The rabbit has to take a nap.

(I am not even going to mention- much- that Edwards is pointedly left out of this horse race scenario against the wisdom of all previous US primary elections. I think it is part of the effort to isolate any possible "must-win" victory for Edwards in Iowa into an ignored blip against the fortunes of Obama and Hillary. In their world they think Edwards would have to win humungously to overcome their studious
silencing of his chances.)

Obama is being set up like a wooden soldier to be knocked down by Hillary- with pity and clucking, snickering advice given disingenuously all the way down so long as he behaves.

[Demeter]

2. NH Is Not One of Those Bought and Paid For Type States

Screw them over, and they will screw you back, even at cost to themselves.

This ought to be very interesting.