The Original Obama: How John Edwards Has Gone From Golden Boy to Old Hand

[BeyondGeography]

By: Stanton Abramson
The Emory Wheel

<...But Edwards remains strong in straw polls from the early primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire, where he still draws support from his strong grassroots effort leftover from 2004. He also appears to be organized labor's first choice for the Presidency, which offers him a strong boost in the economically troubled, old-economy states of the Great Lakes region.

Yet through all this, Edwards remains unpopular in North Carolina. Ever since Al Gore lost the election and his native Tennessee to George W. Bush in 2000, we have been reminded of the impact of a candidate winning his or her home turf. Edwards must first show that he can win North Carolina, and that means he must convince skeptical voters like me that he is their candidate.

While I applaud his immersion in foreign affairs issues, his strong voice for health care reform and his devotion to his wife, I still feel that Edwards is a man in a hurry. There's still a bitter taste in my mouth from Edwards' undistinguished term in the Senate. I can't shake the feeling that he used the voters of my state to gain a national foothold.

The 2008 campaign is just beginning, and John Edwards will have many opportunities to court his native Tar Heels and Americans from coast to coast.

His is a campaign of challenges: a stiff battle in Democratic fund-raising, endorsements and for cautiously skeptical voters like me. To emerge as the Democratic nominee, Edwards is going to need to use both his style and his newly realized substance.>

http://media.www.emorywheel.com/media/storage/paper919/news/2007/04/10/Editorials/The-Original.Obama-2831383.shtml

Comment: We've had a lot of back and forth on this board about the quality (or lack thereof) of John Edwards' Senate term and his popularity (or lack thereof) in his home state. This is a fairly thoughtful piece that suggests these are still major issues for Edwards to overcome, especially in NC. The columnist is basically sympathetic and could easily wind up supporting Edwards; the Obama tie-in is pretty weak (Illinois would give him a landslide if he's the nom); this is really all about Edwards.

[skipos]

1. Nobody talks about the fact that Mitt wouldn't win MA

NC usually votes 14% more Republican that the rest of the country in Presidential elections. As a VP Edwards lowered that to 11% or so in 2004. I don't think he would win NC in 2008, as Presidential candidates usually get about a 10% boost in their homestates.

[Ferret Annica]

2. He has his work cut out for him regarding the hearts and minds of people in N.C.

I lived there many years while in the Army and found much of the state to be a conservative backwater of a political cesspool. Person ally I would not hold it against Edwards if he can't win the bubba vote in his home turf.

[Blackhatjack]

6. I live in North Carolina and the tide has turned ... Edwards is popular here...

There are plenty of conservatives that support the troops here that are plenty mad at the way the Republicans have misused and abused the troops. Many would never vote for George Bush again, and the Republican Party here never mentions George Bush in any way --but they are saddled with him as long as we are in Iraq fighting.

In a later reply to this thread, and other DU threads, I provide some of the facts to back up this position.

[Ferret Annica]

13. I am glad to hear that

I was in the 82nd Airborne Division and 7th Special Forces during my 9 years near 'Fayettenam' at Ft. Bragg and I remember Jesse Helms, Charles Grandison (Charlie) Rose III, and run ins with the Klan at tables with pearls of wisdom in their literature explaining how Joanne Little, a Black prisoner was guilty of murdering a guard, not the victim of a rape. ... And need I mention I was there during the Greensboro slaughter where protesters were gunned down. Lovely.

With all due respect to you and as a Pacific Green party member from Oregon who doesn't have much resonance with any conservative, I don't care for North Carolina politically or socially, but it is sure a pretty state. Where they haven't clear cut the native forest to replace it with corn rows of crop trees that is.

[Blackhatjack]

16. NC is still very supportive of the troops and their families, but it has changed since Bush won...

I have lived here all my life except for 3 years and I remember the events you mentioned. I think people have the wrong idea about NC because it has supported Republicans running on a support the troops theme in the past.

THat will not happen this time. People here are plenty mad, especially about how the troops and their families have been misused and abused. It does not get a lot of media play because they continue to remain silent in public, but privately they are upset.

North Carolina Democrats have maintained the majority of registered voters. It is generally the independents/unaffiliated voters that have swung elections to Republicans here in the past.

However, it won't happen this time. The polling of independents/unaffiliated voters shows they are more upset with the War in Iraq than Democrats, and leaning heavily toward Democrats. Polling shows Edwards is popular here and would win here if he is the Democratic Nominee.

BTW we have had to fight off the Bush Administration constantly to keep them from selling and cutting trees from public lands here. It is a full time job.

More recently, the Bush Administration has been ignoring all the courts and going forward illegally with building a US Naval Airstrip next to one of the nation's premier wildlife preserves. The damage will be extensive and irreparable. Just this week, one of our Republican Senators finally felt the heat and came out against it. However, nothing seems to stop the Bush Administration even though they will continue to alienate even more voters.

[Larkspur]

3. Woodrow Wilson lost his home state and won the Presidency

[BeyondGeography]

4. Looks like Polk was the only other

if you count their state of residence at the time of the election.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_major-party_United_States_presidential_candidates_who_lost_their_home_state

[Blackhatjack]

5. This Opinion Piece is Simply WRONG ... here are the facts...

Abramson writes: "Yet through all this, Edwards remains unpopular in North Carolina."

WRONG. Here are the facts and supporting LINKS:

http://www.wral.com/news/local/politics/story/1226333/

Public Policy Polling, an independent research firm in Raleigh, surveyed 635 likely Democratic voters and 847 likely Republican voters by phone on March 5. The poll results have margin of error of 3 to 4 percent.

In the presidential campaign, former U.S. Sen. John Edwards leads current Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton by a narrow margin. Edwards captured 29 percent of the response, while Obama passed Clinton for second with 25 percent and teh former First Lady garnered 21 percent.

So among all Democratic contenders Edwards is the most popular choice.

And Democrats are the majority party in North Carolina with the highest percentage of registered voters:

http://people-press.org/commentary/display.php3?AnalysisID=140

According to Pew Research:

In every recent election cycle, more North Carolinians have identified as Democrats than Republicans, and the party's lead is about the same as it was in 2000.
(In 2006, 39% were registered Dems and 34% were registered Repubs.)

And as pointed out on another thread here, Edwards is the only candidate pulling 6% of Independents nationwide, and winning head to head matchups with Giuliani and McCain.

Opinion pieces are just that. However, Republican talking points like "Edwards remains unpopular in North Carolina" do not hold up in the face of facts.

[BeyondGeography]

7. Not impressive

Hillary leads Obama 49-17 in NY. A four-point margin makes the columnist's point if you ask me.

http://www.ny1.com/ny1/content/index.jsp?stid=1&aid=68562

[Blackhatjack]

9. I thought the author made the point that Edwards was unpopular in North Carolina...

... which I just proved that is not the case. Still unimpressed?

[BeyondGeography]

10. You cite a poll where he's barely winning, I cite a poll where one of his rivals

is way ahead in her home state...It's clear he has his work cut out for him in NC (and is still unpopular with many voters there), based on the facts you supply.

[Blackhatjack]

12. I am sorry, I assumed you could understand the statistics without being spoon fed....

North Carolina is not New York. North Carolina has returned from supporting Bush in the last 2 Presidential Elections to its Democratic roots.

You and your linked college freshman blogger alleged "Edwards is not popular in North Carolina" which is simply untrue.

Last time I checked, the candidate with the highest percentage of endorsement by Democratic voters in North Carolina IS considered the MOST POPULAR. But you artfully avoid this point by ignoring th statistics.

But that is ok, just keep generating the Edwards hit pieces --it just gives those of us who know the truth and have the facts on our side the opportunity to expose the smears as unsupported by the facts.

[BeyondGeography]

15. Calm down

You are not doing Edwards any favors by citing a poll where he leads Obama by four points in his home state, that should be clear to you. How much time has Obama spent in NC all his life and he's almost within the MOE against your candidate(!)

Edwards has a claim on 29% of the Democrats in his home state after running for president since 2003. By any measurement, that's weak, yet it's proof positive to you that he's not unpopular. I'd say the college freshman makes more sense than you so far.

[Blackhatjack]

17. Well you obviously will cling to your false beliefs in face of contrary evidence....

It is clear that there is nothing in the Republican opposition research storage chest to use against Edwards that was not used last time. So I expect the same lines of attack to be used again this time.

However, people who don't have the facts on their side usually pound the table and quote 'opinionated' columnists as a substitute for support of their misguided allegations.

You need to remember that those of us who live in North Carolina have a better idea of how Edwards is perceived than those who pontificate from afar. I assume your college freshman blogger who says he is from Raleigh, NC was your best stab at getting a local person to agree with your skewed view of Edwards' popularity.

Sorry, but your saying it does not make it so. (But it is a nice warm up to what we will face from Republicans here if Edwards gets the Democratic Nomination.)

[Blackhatjack]

8. The author is a college freshman, with little written to use as a gauge of his judgment

"Stanton Abramson is a College freshman from Raleigh, N.C."

Nothing wrong with being young and opinionated. However, without more than this one article he has written we cannot accurately gauge the judgment of this author.

He may be from Raleigh, but I find many of his opinions to be erroneous and unsupported by the facts.

[BeyondGeography]

11. Is this statement unsupported?

"When he left office in 2005, Edwards' Senate resume included only one credential: he helped co-sponsor the 2001 McCain-Edwards-Kennedy Patients' Bill of Rights."

[Blackhatjack]

14. YES. Do you understand that support is more than an allegation?

Just because you believe in your mind(and the mind of your college freshman blogger) that Edwards' Senate resume included only one credential DOES NOT MAKE IT SO.

I would now have to wonder if your "concerns" about Edwards fall into a different category than just an insightful poster.

[MasonJar]

18. In the first place Gore did not lose the election, and the only reason

he lost Tennessee was the shenanigans of Bill Frist. He and Jeb must have conferred. Frist sent out mailings to minorities giving the wrong day for the vote; he set up roadblocks to intimidate blacks; he also (as Bush chairman in Tenn) saw to it that many were expunged. Gore was too busy running in other states to pay attention to Tenn.