"Race for the House" - Armstrong (the "72-hr plan" won't save the GOP)

[greeneyedboy]

http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/10/30/71417/418

showing that the GOP's mythical 72-hour GOTV machine ain't gonna save them this time:

Race for the House - Jerome Armstrong on mydd.com
. . . . Let me just first of all state that http://www.pollster.com/mystery_pollster/karl_roves_math.php">Karl Rove is on crack. For all his talk of a 72 hour program (the basis of advantage which seems to be leafletting super-church parking lots the Sunday previous the election) and having THE polls, he's merely befuddling the reporters of the simple fact that remains the core of this election: The independents are aligned with Democrats. It was that way http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/10/24/64120/757">last week, and it's been that way all the time, since last summer.

{graph from http://www.galluppoll.com/ELECTION2006/ }

The base support remains about the same (and that's being generous to Republicans), but there are about half of the Republican incumbents with PVI's {PVI=partisan voter index=advantage of one party or the other in number of registrations in an area} of 10% or less Republican seats, and they are all potentially on the table this election. That's why the field of competitive Republican-held House discticts has risen from 37 last November, to 49 this past April, to 57 in August, and now up to 72. And it is comparative to '94, when 101 Democratic-held seats were in play. . . .

The best estimates put the number of seats gained by Democrats at http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2006.html#house">around 20 from this conservative, and 10-24 from the http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/battle_for_the_house_of_representatives-51.html">Republicans at RCP, at 8-26 by http://www.cqpolitics.com/images/41politics-cht1.pdf">CQ's current projection, and anywhere from 16 to 40 from http://www.pollster.com/house.php">Pollster.com, and from 24-29 by http://www.mydd.com/images/user/217/House_Forecast_2006.htm">Chris Bowers...

Look at the anecdotals, like George Bush having to go to Elko, Nevada and help out the wingnut in NV's rural 2nd CD, and yet can't be seen to help out the cash-deprived Republican Porter in the NV 3rd of Las Vegas. Democrats are going to pick up unexpected seats in 2006, without a doubt. Maybe it's in ID, or a couple in FL, or three in CT.

I bet it's gonna be a fun night next Tuesday, and that Democrats pick-up at least 21 seats in the House.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/10/30/71417/418