http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/24/AR2006102401248.html?referrer=email&referrer=email&referrer=emailWhen It Comes to Politics, Charlie Cook Has the Prophecy Market Cornered
By Dana Milbank
Wednesday, October 25, 2006; A02
Please tell us, Seer of Future Congresses, how many seats the Democrats will pick up in the House on Election Day.
"Twenty to 35," Cook answers.
And how about in the Senate, O Prophet on the Potomac?
"At least four," the man with the crystal ball says. "Most likely five or six."
What fate does the seer see for Sen. George Allen (R-Va.)?
"He wins ugly, but he wins," Cook divines.
And, pray tell, how are the planets aligning for Rep. Curt Weldon (R-Pa.)?
"Gone," he decrees.
All are looking for the same thing: next month's election returns. And Cook has them. "Senators Santorum in Pennsylvania and Mike DeWine in Ohio are pretty much done," he told the Piper audience at the Willard hotel. And the lifelines of Sens. Conrad Burns (R-Mont.) and Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.) aren't looking any longer. "I'd be surprised if any of those four can survive," Cook informed the crowd of lobbyists, diplomats and journalists.
He commissions his own poll, and his column appears once a week in the National Journal. A Nexis search finds 873 mentions in the past 60 days for him and his company, the Cook Political Report.
And while he's not always on the mark (he admits to having "tread marks on my forehead" after understating the Republican gains in '94) he's close enough that nobody challenges his forecasts. "I'm not as much of an expert as he is, so I have to defer to him," said Dick Gephardt, a former House Democratic leader, after Cook's talk to the Piper firm.
Cook gave the same speech about Frankenstein and hurricanes, then offered some presidential prognostication for dessert. "I would give McCain a 60, 65 percent chance of winning the Republican nomination," he disclosed. By contrast, he added, "I'll win the Tour de France before Rudy Giuliani wins the Republican nomination."
The oracle hopped into a waiting sedan to catch his flight to Boston. The car ride gave him the first chance in hours to check his BlackBerry -- and to make some last-minute revisions to his prophecies. "Montana closing more than thought," he typed in an e-mail to a reporter. "Burns might not be dead yet."
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