Bush's Social Security Equation Comes Up Short on Money, Trust

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Bush's Social Security Equation Comes Up Short on Money, Trust -Is it already time for the White House to unveil Plan B on Social Security? That may seem premature, given both the infancy of the debate and President Bush's track record in passing his agenda. But he's facing a potentially decisive shortage of two ingredients indispensable to a cause as big as restructuring Social Security: money and trust. By Ronald Brownstein.
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Bush's Social Security Equation Comes Up Short on Money, Trust

Ronald Brownstein February 7, 2005

Is it already time for the White House to unveil Plan B on Social Security?

That may seem premature, given both the infancy of the debate and President Bush's track record in passing his agenda. But he's facing a potentially decisive shortage of two ingredients indispensable to a cause as big as restructuring Social Security: money and trust. Without more of both, Bush appears to be headed for a crackup.

Bush still has important assets in this fight. He has shown he can unify Republicans behind his agenda. GOP legislators have seen tangible rewards — a gain in seats — from sticking with him. And the concern, especially among young people, that Social Security eventually won't have enough money to pay promised benefits strengthens Bush's case that something must be done.

Those are all reasons not to count out Bush as he presses his fundamental redesign of Social Security. "He doesn't lose many of these battles when he puts his mind, his energy and his voice into it," insisted one senior Republican strategist.

But even many of Bush's staunchest allies are expressing open pessimism about his prospects on Social Security. GOP strategist Grover Norquist, the maestro of a broad alliance of conservative groups, talks about restructuring Social Security as a long-term goal that could require years of Republican electoral gains.

Why the gloom? While Bush has spent weeks formulating his proposal and marketing strategy, he's allowed the debate to drift against him.

Except for Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson, every Senate Democrat has expressed opposition to Bush's core idea: diverting about one-third of the payroll tax that now funds benefits for retirees into individual investment accounts for workers. And even Nelson seems likely to join his colleagues.

Several Republican moderates, most prominently Senate Finance Committee member Olympia J. Snowe of Maine, have also criticized the idea.

Just as strikingly, Rep. Jim McCrery (R-La.), the chairman of the House Ways and Means subcommittee supposed to consider Bush's plan first, told reporters last week that the White House probably would need to abandon the idea of carving out part of the payroll tax for investment accounts.

House Republicans always have been the shock troops for Bush's agenda, and he may yet muscle them into line on Social Security too. But they are not volunteering to rush this hill.<snip>