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Spazito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 11:41 AM
Original message
Dollar's Decline Is Reverberating
During a routine sale of U.S. Treasury bonds in early September, one of the essential pillars holding up the economy suddenly disappeared.

Foreigners have been regularly buying nearly half of all debt issued by the U.S. government. On Sept. 9, for the first time that anyone could remember, they stayed home.

snip

But the episode demonstrated how much the U.S. economy is dependent on other countries to bankroll its free-spending ways. That fragility is becoming even more precarious because of recent declines in the U.S. dollar to multiyear lows, some economists say.


Amid worries about bulging U.S. budget and trade deficits, the greenback dropped last week to a record low against the 5-year-old euro, a 12-year low against the Canadian dollar and a nine-year low against an index of major currencies. Many analysts don't see anything that will stop the decline.

more

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=2026&e=...
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Yavin4 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 11:42 AM
Response to Original message
1. We Don't Need Money Any More
We have Jesus.
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Kellanved Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 11:43 AM
Response to Original message
2. the "experts" predict that we'll reach 1 = $1.40 soon.
:scared:
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SpecialK84 Donating Member (55 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 12:04 PM
Response to Reply #2
14. It's so stupid.
I'm studying in London right now where the pound fluxates between 1.84 - 1.91. It's just *GREAT* having to DOUBLE everything I buy ... you woudln't believe how quickly that adds up!!


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Flammable Materials Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 12:09 PM
Response to Reply #14
18. I think I might be heading off to the UK ...
... and see if my ex-pat friend can help me find a job.

Then I can start wiring my paychecks back home to my family like the farm-workers do Stateside.
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Kellanved Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 12:10 PM
Response to Reply #14
19. Yes
I was stateside recently. It was sorta nice to get 25% rebate on everything, still it is not healthy. And as the local economy needs American tourists, I am quite afraid about the development.
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Menshevik Donating Member (674 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 02:30 PM
Response to Reply #14
52. I'm studying in London too
The exchange rate SUCKS. I think I'm going to open a British bank account and move my money over here.
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cliss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 12:38 PM
Response to Reply #2
28. We're there.
I just checked the Financial Bulletin of the Oregonian on Friday Nov. 12.

To my amazement, it said Euro = 1.40
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eleonora Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 12:58 PM
Response to Reply #28
32. Hmm weird. Here it says 1.29
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flygal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 01:18 PM
Response to Reply #2
41. you must be over here in Germany....
I recognize the "walk" picture on your avatar. We moved over here two years ago and it was almost at par with the Euro.
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Kellanved Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 01:45 PM
Response to Reply #41
44. yup
I'm back in Berlin. The GDR-style walk sign is taken from the traffic lights round the courner. :hi:
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The Zanti Regent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 11:43 AM
Response to Original message
3. why, JESUS will heal the dollar!
and the PRESIDENTIAL PRAYER TEAM will pray for divine intervention to eliminate the national debt...

(SARCASM MODE NOW OFF)
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pa28 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 02:58 PM
Response to Reply #3
54. And if that fails . . .
go to the holy scriptures of Milton Friedman. "Thou shalt reduce taxes on rich people and all thine ills shall be cured."
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Deja Q Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 11:44 AM
Response to Original message
4. Obviously, 59 million people want this.
Otherwise they would have voted * out.

We need to do every grassroots effort to remind those nitwits at every opportunity.
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rfranklin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 11:48 AM
Response to Reply #4
7. Actually, they are too stupid and confused to know what they...
were voting for--the PIPA study showed that. They were so bamboozled by the Bushistas that they have no idea what they voted for. And if anything goes wrong, it's the fault of clinton and the liberals.
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Vitruvius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 12:13 PM
Response to Reply #7
21. And they take it for granted the blue states will bail them out --
Edited on Sun Nov-14-04 12:15 PM by Vitruvius
like we always do. They blame Clinton & the Dems for their boy Bu$h's foulups, then scream for a bailout from the Democratic blue states.

Why should they be logical, why should they bother to think, why should they do anything to remedy their own stupidity & make better choices in future, when we always pick up the pieces for them?
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VivaKerry Donating Member (609 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 12:59 PM
Response to Reply #7
34. They choose to be stupid and uninformed/
The signs and symptoms and hard core information is available. They CHOOSE to be stupid, or they don't care. They must make great soup in their church's soup kitchens or something!
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SemperEadem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 01:10 PM
Response to Reply #34
40. and the irony about the churches is
that they lock there doors everyday but Wednesday evenings for bible study and Sunday mornings for service. There is not one church I know of that has its doors open every day, using their kitches to feed the hungry in their communities.
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pretzel4gore Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 09:09 PM
Response to Reply #40
75. remember the song 'california dreaming'?
it would be impossible now, as it says 'went into a church, and got down on my knees to pray' etc cuz all the damn churches are locked up tight! (and no one suggests that locking up churches maybe led to people thieving etc; it's always of course, the thieving led to locking up the churches!)
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Chipper Chat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 01:53 PM
Response to Reply #7
45. Blame It On Clinton
Yeppers - Today's edition of the Fort Wayne Journal Gazette (p. 4A) has an article on the "faith" of Bush voters. Among the sundry comments about Kerry being a flip-flopper and "not religious" (#*grrrrr#@^*) is a quip from a 44-yr-old engineering technician who offers this explanation of Bush's economy woes:
"Bush should not be held accountable for all the nation's ills because CLINTON drove the policies that created the problems."
YEAH, RIGHT!
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Kellanved Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 01:58 PM
Response to Reply #45
46. we have an easy rule of thumb
:"nothing will bring the Dollar down faster than a Bush in the WH". (although it was pretty low during the first half of Clinton's first term as well)
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barb162 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 11:44 AM
Response to Original message
5. the dollar will keep sinking and sinking; I thinkn we are headed for a
depression
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ilovenicepeople Donating Member (883 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 12:38 PM
Response to Reply #5
29.  your country has been completely bankrupted
it's only logical that the dollar would follow it's predetermaned path.You can allways ask Cuba to bail you out.
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kittykitty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 05:55 PM
Response to Reply #5
64. Me too. I get premonitions about these things And I've always been right
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silvershadow Donating Member (321 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-15-04 10:22 AM
Response to Reply #5
91. i agree.
add outsourcing and uncontrolled spending to the mix and I bet it is another Great Depression.
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librechik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 11:45 AM
Response to Original message
6. Rapture soon, no worries!
In case of Second Coming, this economy will be unmanned.
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JPace Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 12:26 PM
Response to Reply #6
25. Jesus is coming to feed us all with fishes and loaves...
no need for money anymore.
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kostya Donating Member (769 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 11:48 AM
Response to Original message
8. kick
:kick:
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pretzel4gore Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 11:54 AM
Response to Original message
9. devaluating the dollar helps bush
dammit....i read that the busheviks are transferring debt somehow, by lowering the major currencies exchange rate viz the $US, plus propping up agribiz etc... they also have the 'samson' option: if too much pressure put on US, the busheviks let dollar totally collapse, ruining global economy...all the big players will protect the $US so bushinc can recklessly do whatever they want...when we call bushinc a criminal operation, it's not just rhetorical
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Kellanved Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 12:01 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. but that doesn't work for new debts
And "propping up" agribiz is fine and all - but the US economy is import and investment dependent. Imports are getting insanely expensive and while a weak dollar is good for attracting foreign investments, a falling dollar is not - it has to be somewhat stable.

Any way: it is one thing more than anything else: screwing the middle class.
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pretzel4gore Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 12:28 PM
Response to Reply #10
27. which just convinces me more
that bush never got anywhere near the numbers the bushevik media claim; even stupid people do not vote for theory when bread and butter at stake. It's a coup d'etat, an overthrow of legal authority going on...so help spread the news!
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cliss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 12:43 PM
Response to Reply #9
30. I agree that these guys are Riverboat Gamblers,
however there will come a day when the rest of the world SIMPLY CANNOT prop us up anymore. They will be dealing with their own economies spiraling downhill. They have their own citizens to consider, too.

At some point, maybe sooner than we realize, the other players are going to put down their cards as the US keeps upping the ante. They'll say, "I fold". And then the poker game will be over.
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ontheMark Donating Member (83 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 07:39 PM
Response to Reply #30
70. High deficit + Low dollar =
Low wages and high prices, just what * buddies like. Us little folks can buy US silver coins rather than gold. You can make small investments over time.
As rates climb, get ready for real estate to fall. DON'T RE MORTGAGE! If you have silver, gold or euros, you'll be able to buy for, whats now, Penny's on the dollar. Good luck all.
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DuaneBidoux Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 08:43 PM
Response to Reply #9
74. Devaluating a currency helps an economy if it is gradual and controlled.
If it is a collapse trust me it won't help Bush. We would see a spike to 15% interest rates even without growth in the economy, and housing prices would collapse and you would have a debt "unwinding" (read: depression). Trust me, no sitting party will benefit from a Depression, Democrat OR Republican.
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jsquared Donating Member (63 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 09:32 PM
Response to Reply #74
78. A depression would discredit the Republicans and their hypocritical
policies for decades to come. Frankly, I believe there would have been little Kerry could have done to prevent the inevitable results of GWB profligacy. Better that it blows up on their watch, if it's going to have to happen.
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DuaneBidoux Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-15-04 12:39 PM
Response to Reply #78
94. GWB only added (albeit enormously) to a problem that has been going
on for decades, with only a slight reprieve under Clinton: That is the concentration of wealth into a very small oligarchy that writes the rules for their own benefit and screws everyone else. The system is becoming unsustainably top-heavy. Most billionaires now pay less percentage tax than middle class, and the flat tax will shift the burden even further downward. We are eating away at the middle class-the heart of what really sustains this economy.

Maybe it is sustainable, but it is hard to see how year after year this can go on without major shit eventually hitting the fan.
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Pig_Latin_Lover Donating Member (295 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 12:02 PM
Response to Original message
11. At least gays can't marry in 11 states
That's worth the price, right?
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Pig_Latin_Lover Donating Member (295 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 12:02 PM
Response to Original message
12. Dupe
Edited on Sun Nov-14-04 12:03 PM by Pig_Latin_Lover
(dupe)
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BlueManDude Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 12:03 PM
Response to Original message
13. ...but Larry Kudlow said everything was allright?
dollar in decline - try America in decline.
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Chimpanzee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-15-04 08:34 AM
Response to Reply #13
87. I hate that Kudlow bastard!
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VegasWolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 12:04 PM
Response to Original message
15. The american public stated that they were not concerned
about the economy in this election. These suckers
get what they deserve.
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alexisfree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 12:06 PM
Response to Original message
16. Gold!!! Its been secure and is accepted by any country in the world.
When the dollar falls you will only have paper...I asked a bank manager what would happen if there was an economic crisis those your bank have enough money so people can with drawl there savings...Her answer no...We would close the bank...

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girl gone mad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 06:47 PM
Response to Reply #16
66. Just make sure..
you go for the real thing and not gold stocks. If the economy does collapse, that piece of paper will probably be worthless.
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Flammable Materials Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 12:07 PM
Response to Original message
17. Guess I'll be tucking away some of my paycheck in Euros ...
... starting tomorrow.
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Kellanved Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 12:11 PM
Response to Reply #17
20. probably not a good time to do so.
The Dollar already is too low to make it worthwhile.
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girl gone mad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 06:45 PM
Response to Reply #20
65. It can always go lower. n/t
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DuaneBidoux Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 08:41 PM
Response to Reply #20
73. The dollar will go much much much lower. Tomorrow?
Maybe not. Next month? Maybe not...But at a trade deficit of nearly 6% of GDP it will go lower as surely as the sun will rise tomorrow.

Kerry would have had the same problems...but the problem is long term and comes from 30 years of Repug mismanagement of the economy (with one president trying to straighten it out in the 90s and almost succeeding).
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Donkeyboy75 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-15-04 08:41 AM
Response to Reply #20
88. I agree, Kellanved.
But, I must say I'm glad I'm being paid in euros now. :)

As I'm sure you know, the EU is in fits over this, and is exploring every possible avenue to stunt the ascent of the euro against the dollar. Changing over now might be a bad idea...
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juajen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 12:13 PM
Response to Original message
22. Would a reversed presidential election change this? Just wondering.
Is it too late? Would Kerry have had the same problem? Maybe this is why he conceded so early. Let * face his own music.
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VegasWolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 12:19 PM
Response to Reply #22
23. Well for a start, chimp has a weak dollar philosophy along
with an offshoring jobs is a good idea philosophy.
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mrdmk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 08:35 PM
Response to Reply #23
72. Also, every business enterprise Mr. Bush Jr. started
went right down the tubes. :nuke:
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PROGRESSIVE1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 12:22 PM
Response to Original message
24. Another recession is on the way. Bush has made it hard to...
buy imported goods. Most of what we Americans buy is IMPORTED. We have to pay more for everything which means we have less money to spend. Also, the interest rates will be going up to offset the massive increase in the national debt.

:eyes:
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fwiff Donating Member (184 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 03:05 PM
Response to Reply #24
56. Very true. It is a negative feedback loop
because the exchange rate favors the euro so much, the european companies are still making their money, but the US profit margins are quickly shrinking. How is this going to help our economy?
Interest rates were artificially decreased to 'stimulate' the economy, which worked a little, but they now only have one way to go. It was an all or nothing gamble.
The cost of all goods are heading up and the lag from oil prices is just starting to show in the market. Yet the major oil co.s posted huge profits this quarter.
It's gonna get tighter and tighter and inflation's going up no matter what they tell us with the smoke and mirrors.

Bastid ingnoramuses. (51%) :grr:
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PROGRESSIVE1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-15-04 08:28 AM
Response to Reply #24
86. Kick!
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 12:27 PM
Response to Original message
26. A fluke? HA!
Usually indirect bidders, which include foreign governments, are heavy buyers at Treasury auctions. This time, their purchases were less than 3%. Traders speculated that Japan was finally calling it quits.

What happened was never explained, but neither was it repeated.

"It turned out to be a fluke," said Kim Rupert, managing director for global fixed-income analysis at Action Economics, a consulting firm. "But at first blush, it was 'Oh my gosh.' "



I have no idea what that first snip is all about. The big problem of the last auction was that private investors were for the first time, net sellers - they sold more than they bought and it was the central banks that sucked it up. :shrug:
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Spazito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 12:49 PM
Response to Reply #26
31. Because of the 4 paragraph rule, I had to choose which...
to leave out and yet get the context of the article through in hopes that everyone would read the whole article and see the part that you have posted, thanks for posting it!
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Gin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 12:58 PM
Response to Reply #31
33. what advice should American workers....middle income..no stock or 401K
follow? Should we keep all money out of banks and accesible? I understand the seriousness...but need advice on what to do.

What suggestions do you guys have for us to do when the dollar and our financial system collapses?
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VivaKerry Donating Member (609 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 01:04 PM
Response to Reply #33
37. Not an economist:
but I would tend to want to keep a lot of canned foods on hand and a source for heat. Seriously. Seems like even if you kept your cash accessible, it wouldn't be worth anything in the scenario you describe. So you have $3,000 in dollars in the bed cushion, and everything collapses, and a carton of milk costs $300!

Remember in Germany with people with a wheel barrow full of cash to buy bread?
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VegasWolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 02:06 PM
Response to Reply #37
47. Right, then they dumped the marks onto the street and stole the
wheelbarrow.
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Spazito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 01:04 PM
Response to Reply #33
38. I would start buying euros, diversifying and reducing my risks...
also, check with your bank regarding deposit security. In Canada, the banks secure up to 60 thousand dollars so if the bank were to fold, up to 60,000 dollars would be returned to you. I don't know if US banks have the same policy.

Re purchasing euros, take a percentage of your money to purchase them rather than all of it.
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amandabeech Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 02:19 PM
Response to Reply #38
49. In the U.S., depositors are covered for at least $100,000
per individual or family. The amount may be considerably larger, because different types of accounts, say IRAs or Trusts, are counted separately.

However, it may take some time to get your money back after a bank closes, so it is advisable to have money in more than one bank if things get rough.

Frequently, though, the practice in the U.S. is to encourage solvent banks to take over failing banks, so that depositors do not lose access to their money at all.

Depending on the situation, it might also be possible for depositors in a failed bank to get their entire deposit over $100,000 back. During the Savings and Loan crisis in the Bush II regime, no depositors lost money.

This bailed out Bush cronies and probably saved some folks from being lynched (including Neil), but seniors who had their retirements tied up in S&L accounts received all their money back.
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Spazito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 02:20 PM
Response to Reply #49
50. Thanks for the info, it is good to know!
*
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jsquared Donating Member (63 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 10:14 PM
Response to Reply #49
80. If there's a major bank crisis, I can't imagine there being enough money
in the US government insurance fund to cover everything. Also, I believe that half of bank loans these days are tied to real estate so problems in that sector (due to rising interest rates) could bring down many banks.
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Starlight Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 10:38 PM
Response to Reply #80
84. If we have a depression deep enough to close the banks
there won't be any money available to pay depositors.
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KitSileya Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 03:02 PM
Response to Reply #33
55. I'm definitely not an economist,
but I'd start learning some new skills - frugality, self-sufficiency, other practical skills. If the dollar goes the way of the 1930s mark, a kitchen garden is more valuable than a wheelbarrow full of dollars.

Robert Heinlein wrote an article giving advice on how to survive after a nuclear attack - I figure it's not too bad advice if you have to make do without paper money and imported goods.

Other than that? Gold or jewels, perhaps.
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Ima Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 01:01 PM
Response to Reply #31
36. Better get to China Mart
and buy you Xmass gifts now. The price is going up.
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amandabeech Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 04:42 PM
Response to Reply #36
60. The Chinese currency is pegged to the dollar.
No matter what what happens in the Chinese and U.S. economies, the dollar buys 8.37-8.38 Chinese yuan (or renminbi). We have been urging the Chinese to let its currency float to its market rate, which may be 20-40% higher than the current rate.

However, the Chinese only make promises about the future, and mention concerns about their rickety banking system, which are probably true, at least in part. But if they are bad at banking, the theory of comparative advantage should dictate that those world banks that are the most efficient should be able to go into China and offer their services. After all, isn't that what globalization is all about?

Anyway, all that means is that Chinese products will rise in price only because their raw materials may become more expensive, like natural gas and petroleum for plastic, etc., and transportation becomes more expensive with rising oil prices.

Eventually, the Chinese may let their currency rise because raw materials and fossil fuels may become very expensive to purchase with seriously undervalued yuan.
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 02:54 PM
Response to Reply #31
53. You're welcome. That 1st paragraph I snipped about the indirect
bidders makes no sense. Seems the author is talkin' outta their ass. :evilgrin:
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VivaKerry Donating Member (609 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 01:01 PM
Response to Reply #26
35. Ending an article like this with "Oh My Gosh!" is par for the cours
this author's editor probably said, "well, just make it as upbeat as you can, okay? For goergie."

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nashville_brook Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 03:31 PM
Response to Reply #26
57. interesting -- petrodollars vs. petroeuros
Edited on Sun Nov-14-04 03:32 PM by nashville_brook
http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/RRiraqWar.html

The Real Reasons for the Upcoming War With Iraq:
A Macroeconomic and Geostrategic Analysis of the Unspoken Truth


It would appear that any attempt by OPEC member states in the Middle East or Latin America to transition to the euro as their oil transaction currency standard shall be met with either overt U.S. military actions or covert U.S. intelligence agency interventions. Under the guise of the perpetual `war on terror' the Bush administration is manipulating the American people about the unspoken but very real macroeconomic reasons for this upcoming war with Iraq. This war in Iraq will not be based on any threat from Saddam's old WMD program, or from terrorism. This war will be over the global currency of oil. A war intended to prevent oil from being priced in euros.

Sadly, the U.S. has become largely ignorant and complacent. Too many of us are willing to be ruled by fear and lies, rather than by persuasion and truth. Will we allow our government to initiate the dangerous `pre-emptive doctrine' by waging an unpopular war in Iraq, while we refuse to acknowledge that Saddam does not pose an imminent threat to the United States? Furthermore, we seem unable to address the structural imbalances in our economy due to massive debt manipulation, unaffordable 2001 tax cuts, record levels of trade deficits, unsustainable credit expansion, corporate accounting abuses, near zero personal savings, record personal indebtedness, and our reliance and over consumption of Middle Eastern oil.

Regardless of whatever Dr. Blix finds or does not find in Iraq regarding WMD, it appears that President Bush is determined to pursue his `pre-emptive' imperialist war to secure a large portion of the earth's remaining hydrocarbons, and ultimately use Iraq's underutilized oil to destroy the OPEC cartel. Will this gamble work? That remains to be seen. However, the history of warfare is replete with unintended consequences. It is plausible that the aftermath of the Iraq war and a U.S. occupation of Iraq could increase Al-Qaeda sponsored terrorism against U.S. targets, or more likely create guerilla warfare in a post-war Iraq. Moreover, continued U.S. unilateralism could create economic retribution from the international community or OPEC.

The question we as Americans must ask -- Can the US military control by force all oil-producing nations and dictate their oil export transaction currency? In brief, the answer is no. Will we forfeit any pretense of practicing free-market capitalism while we enforce a military command economy for global oil transactions? Is it morally defensible to deploy our brave but nave young soldiers around the globe to enforce U.S. dollar hegemony for global oil transactions via the barrels of their guns? Will we allow imperialist conquest of the Middle East to feed our excessive oil consumption, while ignoring the duplicitous overthrowing of a democratically elected government in Latin America? Is it acceptable for a U.S. President to threaten military force upon OPEC nation state(s) because of their sovereign choice of currency regarding their oil exports? I concur with Dr. Peter Dale Scott's sentiments on this question:
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Petrodollar Warfare Donating Member (628 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-15-04 11:27 AM
Response to Reply #57
93. Petrodollar Warfare Stage II - Iran and their euro-denominated Bourse..
Edited on Mon Nov-15-04 11:28 AM by Petrodollar Warfare

'The Real Reasons Why Iran is the Next Target:
The Emerging Euro-denominated International Oil Marker'

http://globalresearch.ca/articles/CLA410A.html

The Iranians are about to commit an "offense" far greater than Saddam Hussein's conversion to the euro of Iraqs oil exports in the fall of 2000. Numerous articles have revealed Pentagon planning for operations against Iran as early as 2005. While the publicly stated reasons will be over Iran's nuclear ambitions, there are unspoken macroeconomic drivers explaining the Real Reasons regarding the 2nd stage of petrodollar warfare - Iran's upcoming euro-based oil Bourse.

In 2005-2006, The Tehran government has a developed a plan to begin competing with New York's NYMEX and London's IPE with respect to international oil trades - using a euro-denominated international oil-trading mechanism. This means that without some form of US intervention, the euro is going to establish a firm foothold in the international oil trade. Given U.S. debt levels and the stated neoconservative project for U.S. global domination, Tehran's objective constitutes an obvious encroachment on U.S. dollar supremacy in the international oil market."


"...It is abundantly clear that a 2nd Bush term will bring a confrontation and possible war with Iran during 2005. Colin Powell as the Secretary of the State, has moderated neoconservative military designs regarding Iran, but Powell has stated that he will be leaving at the end of Bushs first term. Of course if John Kerry wins in November, he might pursue a similar military strategy. However, it is my opinion that Kerry is more likely to pursue multilateral negotiations regarding the Iranian issues.

"...A successful Iranian bourse would solidify the petroeuro as an alternative oil transaction currency, and thereby end the petrodollar's hegemonic status as the monopoly oil currency. Therefore, a graduated approach is needed to avoid precipitous U.S. economic dislocations. Multilateral compromise with the EU and OPEC regarding oil currency is certainly preferable to an Operation Iranian Freedom, or perhaps an attempted CIA-sponsored repeat of the 1953 Iranian coup operation "Ajax" part II. Indeed, there are very good reasons for U.S. military leaders to be "horrified" at the thought of a second Bush term in which Cheney and the neoconservatives would be unrestrained in their tragic pursuit of U.S. global domination.

"...Pentagon sources confirm the Bush administration could undertake a desperate military strategy to thwart Irans nuclear ambitions while simultaneously attempting to prevent the Iranian oil Bourse from initiating a euro-based system for oil trades. The later would require forced "regime change" and the U.S. occupation of Iran. Obviously this would require a military draft. Objectively speaking, the post-war debacle in Iraq has clearly shown that such Imperial policies will be a catastrophic failure. Alternatively, perhaps a more enlightened U.S. administration could undertake multilateral negotiations with the EU and OPEC regarding a dual oil-currency system, in conjunction with global monetary reform. Either way, U.S. policy makers will soon face two difficult choices: monetary compromise or continued petrodollar warfare.

"I am a firm believer in the people. If given the truth, they can be depended upon to meet any national crisis. The great point is to bring them the real facts."

- Abraham Lincoln

"Whenever the people are well-informed, they can be trusted with their own government. Whenever things get so far wrong as to attract their notice, they may be relied on to set them to rights."

- Thomas Jefferson

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Art_from_Ark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 05:45 PM
Response to Reply #26
63. Japan's not "calling it quits"
There's just no reason to buy dollars as long as the yen is still below the threshold of pain for Japanese exporters.

Threshold of pain = 105 yen/dollar (more or less)
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0007 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 01:07 PM
Response to Original message
39. .....somethin' like that giant sucking sound Ross told us about?
...economists and academics say there are real reasons for concern. If the dollar falls too far too quickly, they say, those all-important foreign investors will abandon the U.S. in favor of stabler places.
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bluedeminredstate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 01:38 PM
Response to Original message
42. My mom who lives in Canada
but gets U.S. Social Security said her most recent check had an exchange rate of 17 cents. When I was there in August it was 33 cents. Last Summer it was 59 cents.
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Spazito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 01:43 PM
Response to Reply #42
43. Yep, I just took my US greenbacks to the bank and only received...
17% as well. I used to save my US dollars for holidays, etc, but cannot afford to keep losing on them so am dumping them as fast as I can, sadly.
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VegasWolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 02:10 PM
Response to Original message
48. I'm selling my US dollars while they're still worth 71 cents. n/t
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Chicago Democrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 02:21 PM
Response to Original message
51. The US should just start printing money!!!
I think the effect is exactly the same...


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Wright Patman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 03:40 PM
Response to Original message
58. The 'flyover' rubes who voted
for ChimpCo don't have much money to begin with. Our economy was long ago destroyed by Wal*Mart and the various free trade agreements.

People around the sticks where I live operate on fear and hate of the 'lib'ruls' and 'homos' and even the remaining blacks who live in these parts (the most ambitious moved to California) have reason to worry. I have sensed a disturbing retrogression in race relations. Ironically, the Baptist pastor who openly campaigned for ChimpCo from his downtown pulpit is very enlightened on that issue and would agree with what I just said.

I said after I watched this election that they'd have to take to the streets again in a new civil rights movement to overcome the high-tech Jim Crow now firmly in place. They were given about 30 years to start voting the "right" way by the GOP and its voting machine makers. Since they wouldn't, they can register and vote all they want, but the GOP is counting their touchscreens for ChimpCo.
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DulceDecorum Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 04:23 PM
Response to Original message
59. ... and so T-Bill trader Cantor Fitzgerald
Edited on Sun Nov-14-04 04:25 PM by DulceDecorum
sued Saudi Arabia for the loos of its "employees."
That Cantor Fitzgerald treats its employees like dirt when they are there,
and sues when they leave.

One of the most hypocritical, stupid and insincere victim-playing acts was done not by a person but by an entire company. Cantor Fitzgerald, an overpaid, over-complimented money grubbing company (let's not forget what they do) lost hundreds in the WTC attack. The company took a blow unequaled in American business. In the immediate aftermath, there was sympathy for the company... Then, in the months following, this serpent of business reared its ugly head. First, it whined that a competing company tried to lure executives away from it and actually had the gall to take legal action, saying it was not right and fair for a competitor to use the event for business... not long afterward, Cantor had NO PROBLEM doing exactly that as it aired commercials with staffers who survived. -- Crosshairs
http://www.rotten.com/library/crime/corporate/canter-fi... /

And I haven't even said anything about the guy who was PEED ON
(yes, URINATED UPON)
by a Cantor EFF partner.
http://www.thestreet.com/pf/comment/easymoney/29867.htm...

Those T-bill traders will do just about ANYTHING for a dollar.....
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demgrrrll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 05:24 PM
Response to Reply #59
61. That guy from the street article was a very very strong person. He
deserves a settlement of some sort for putting up with that kind of abusive behavior. What in the world is happening in America.
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DulceDecorum Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 09:45 PM
Response to Reply #61
79. Cantor Eff is BAD NEWS
The absolute worst.

If you do some research into them,
and their connections to terror,
what you find will knock your socks clear across the room.

It is not for nothing that their CEO,
Howard Lutnick,
is known as
the Grim Weeper.
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VegasWolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 05:29 PM
Response to Original message
62. LBN: now + 3 more years: US dollar worth .23 cents to the euro.
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sphincter Donating Member (153 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 06:50 PM
Response to Original message
67. My guess would be
that the vast majority of the people who voted for * doesn't even know that other countries have other currencies than the USD.
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alexisfree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 06:52 PM
Response to Original message
68. im glad let it crash....Its time to look time to look into GOLD..
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Art_from_Ark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 08:21 PM
Response to Reply #68
71. Be careful what you wish for
A dollar crash would hurt the most vulnerable, and likely lead to worldwide calamity
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aneerkoinos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 09:15 PM
Response to Reply #71
76. Yup, let it crash
US lead capitalist world order is hurting the most vulnerable and creating worldwide calamity. Let it crash, another world is possible.
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DBoon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 09:26 PM
Response to Reply #71
77. And how is this different from what Bush has already been doing?
eom
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 07:04 PM
Response to Original message
69. Heh, left off on Friday at 83.69. Now at 83.62 in the early market hour.
Looks like 83.15 is the next downside target.

The December Dollar closed sharply lower on Friday and below monthly support crossing at 83.75. The daily ADX (a trend- following indicator) is turning bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the decline continues, monthly support crossing at 83.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 84.54 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted.



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charlie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 10:22 PM
Response to Original message
81. We've been here before
under pere Bush. Big surprise, eh? The dollar was falling through the floor when he left office and a year later, I could only get 79 yen per dollar, down from 140 yen a few years earlier. This time though, there's no Clinton/Bentsen/Rubin deficit reduction/strong dollar team to stem the erosion. We're going deeper into the abyss than ever before... again.
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blue sky at night Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 10:27 PM
Response to Original message
82. Thanks folks, this was one interesting
Thread! What a wonderful day in the neighborhood! I guess I will go down in flames if it happens, but I have a decent pile of firewood to keep us warm till we can plant the north fourty........uh, thats right my rototiller is broke. I think we deserve to be toasted after what we have done to the middle-east and said F.U. to our former allies! Anyway, it is awesome what you folks can do, and have knowledge of....keep it up. Thanks.
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bain_sidhe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 10:30 PM
Response to Original message
83. Buy gold? You can't eat gold...
Edited on Sun Nov-14-04 10:31 PM by bain_sidhe
or wear it, the grocery store won't take it, and it makes a lousy roof.

Seriously, that's my problem with the gold bugs who say that buying gold is the best way to prepare for the coming devaluation of the dollar (and the inflation that it will cause). I mean, it's all well and good if you're positioned to actually trade gold on the world market. I'm not. My question is, what should ORDINARY PEOPLE do - the people who just basically use money to live day to day - buy food, pay the rent or mortgage, pay the utilities, etc...

Yes, we have a retirement plan through my hubby's employer, but we never actually "see" the "money," it just gets deposited into a traditional annuity account (guaranteed interest, so that's something, anyway) - and we can't touch it to "buy gold" anyway. We could conceivably buy shares of mutual funds instead of depositing the money into an interest bearing account, but we're not stupid enough to be in the stock market right now.

So, "buy gold" does us no good at all. Let's get real world people. How do we preserve our buying power to the greatest extent possible when raises are unlikely to even keep up with the cost of living (in fact the next contract that gets negotiated will probably forgo any raise just to hold the line on health insurance).

**Edited for clarity!
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Art_from_Ark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-15-04 07:39 AM
Response to Reply #83
85. For that matter, you can't eat dollar bills, either
The attraction of gold is that it has served as money far longer than any other medium, and its relatively limited (but not too limited) supply means that it cannot simply be printed in massive amounts, thus it can serve as a hedge against hyperinflation. The (surviving) French and Germans who salted away gold coins during their two world wars, for example, did far better than their compatriots who merely had paper. Same thing, to a lesser extent, for the British, whose gold sovereign (pound) after World War I was worth more than its now debased equivalent in paper.

A similar situation happened in the US during the Civil War, when gold coins (and silver, for that matter) were worth FAR more at the store than the equivalent denomination in paper.

And Latin Americans are all too familiar with what happens when printing presses go haywire. As are the Serbians, who at one time not too long ago were using 500,000,000,000-dinar notes to make daily purchases!
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nolabels Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-15-04 11:06 AM
Response to Reply #85
92. Yea but just wait on the real estate bubble lets out it's gas
The last peg holding the apple cart up :scared:
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Mike03 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-16-04 08:36 AM
Response to Reply #83
96. Gold Investments
What you say has some truth; there is also the problem of storage and selling. But there are other ways to invest in gold, including mining stocks, gold funds, and funds that are negatively correlated against the U.S. dollar and hold gold bullion. Also, I doubt anyone advocates totally liquidating one's portfolio into gold, but there would seem to be a place for it in a modern portfolio, in one form or another.
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74dodgedart Donating Member (513 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-16-04 08:49 AM
Response to Reply #83
97. Can't eat "moral values" either
Thanks Dubya
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donhakman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-15-04 08:45 AM
Response to Original message
89. George Soros made 30% by converting to Euro s
last year.

The dollar is expected to drop to 42 cents so there is still another 7% to be made in the Int Currency Market.




Cheney says "Deficits don't matter."

just like 4 heart attacks don't matter.
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Art_from_Ark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-16-04 06:23 AM
Response to Reply #89
95. What is expected and what actually occurs may be
Edited on Tue Nov-16-04 06:23 AM by Art_from_Ark
two different things.

I once had a stock that was expected to rise to $100. All the anal-ysts gave it a "buy" rating (or was that actually a "bye"?) At any rate, it went the other way, finally crashing to the single digits. So beware of what the anal-ysts recommend
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EMP Donating Member (33 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-15-04 09:58 AM
Response to Original message
90. kick
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