Report Says Problems Led to Skewed Surveying Data (exit polls)

[quaoar]

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/05/politics/campaign/05poll.html?adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1099631240-7j+dxf+JB4lE/DEOc4iqBg

By JIM RUTENBERG

Published: November 5, 2004


The new $10 million polling system used by many news organizations to predict the outcome of the presidential race had a number of problems that led to the early erroneous impression that John Kerry was heading for victory, according to a report prepared by the system's architects.

The report, written by Joe Lenski and Warren Mitofsky and obtained by The New York Times, details systemic glitches that skewed the data in ways of which several news organizations, who paid tens of thousands of dollars for the service, were not aware.

In some cases, the report said, survey takers could not get close enough to the polls to collect adequate samples of voters opinion. They were often stopped by legal barriers devised to keep people electioneering - not necessarily bona fide poll canvassers - away from voters.

The report also theorized that the poll results more frequently overstated support for Mr. Kerry than for President Bush because the Democratic nominee's supporters were more open to pollsters. Whatever the case, according to the report, the surveys had the biggest partisan skew since at least 1988, the earliest election the report tracked.

[w13rd0]

1. Bullshit...

...they are trying to tell us all these "moral values voters" didn't leap at the opportunity to sing the praises of Jesus Bush, what the fuck ever...

[DELUSIONAL]

16. They want it both ways -- "values" from the exit polls

but they say that the Kerry lead is faulty.

Which one of these is correct -- both cannot be correct.

If the exit polls were invalid for Kerry then they also had to be invalid for the "values" response as a reason for voting for Kerry.

There is massive brain washing going on -- Rove is very good -- very very good.

He is blaming the victim -- US because we don't have the correct moral "values" -- Bull shit.

It pissed me off that some democratic leaders are picking up this meme.

[okieinpain]

20. I don't think the dem leaders are saying we lost on values issues,

I think they are saying we lost because we didn't lie about value issues like repugs. that's what I've be advocating, shit lie about it like the repugs do. and there base is smart enough not to say shit while they are doing it.

[aquart]

2. Pasture pastry.

[Dover]

3. So it's clear (if you had any doubt) that the media was in on it again

They are feeding into the attempts to head off the weakest link in their coverup of this blatant fraud. Don't doubt yourselves just because they own the messenger.

[hedda_foil]

4. What utter and complete nonsense.

But the survey data this time around certainly created a sense of demoralization among Democrats who had seen the Election Day polling data - leading some of Mr. Kerry's supporters to speculate that the data was accurate but the actual vote was fraudulent. A participant in Mr. Coll's online chat asked him, "What about the possibility that the exit polls are right and the vote count is wrong?''

The report debunked that as a possibility.


---------

So they turned around a statistical report in one day and conclusively debunked the possibility that the polls were right. Of course, the reporter doesn't seem to have a clue about whether the "debunking" was utterly convincing or simply blather and nonsense, since he doesn't bother to describe it at all.

This is bullshit cubed!

[high density]

5. Why is it the media is assuming the "moral values" numbers are accurate

But the "I voted for John Kerry" numbers ARE NOT accurate? This is so sick.

[proReality]

6. How soon will they change the name of the "Homeland" to

Oceania? Has anyone received the memo yet?

[Nordic]

7. It's the "preemptive lie"

to borrow from somebody else on another thread.

This is pure BS to cover the fact that exit polls have almost NO margin of error.

yeah right "gosh, the exit polls in THIS election were sooo different!"

No they weren't. What was different here was the voter fraud.

[Furity]

8. Did they detail the systemic glitches

in the new voting machines? Just wondering.

~Furity

[fearnobush]

9. Systematic glitches only found in battleground states. It was Stolen!!!

[blurp]

10. Read the FAQ from the people that conducted the polling

http://www.exit-poll.net/faq.html

I thought this was odd:

"How do you select sample precincts?
"The polling places were selected as a stratified probability sample of each state. The purpose of stratification is to group together precincts with similar vote characteristics. A recent past election was used to identify all the precincts as they existed for that election. The total vote in each precinct and the partisan division of the vote from this past race are used for the stratification. In addition, counties are used for stratifying the precincts. The total vote also is used to determine the probability of selection. Each voter in a state has approximately the same chance of being selected in the sample."

Stratification? Why?

Based on a previous elections? Why?

Why not just a random sample?

[blurp]

11. Also says margin of error +/-4% for exit polls

"The margin of error for a 95% confidence interval is about +/- 3% for a typical characteristic from the national exit poll and +/-4% for a typical state exit poll. Characteristics that are more concentrated in a few polling places, such as race, have larger sampling errors. Other nonsampling factors may increase the total error. "

I think whomever employed these guys needs to get their money back.

[mcg]

12. No, it was the Diebold'd counts that were skewed, the election was stolen

'Walden O'Dell, chief executive of North Canton-based Diebold Inc. ...

In an invitation to a Republican fund-raiser at his suburban Columbus mansion, O'Dell said he was "committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes for the president next year."'

<http://www.diebold.com/whatsnews/inthenews/executive.htm>

<http://www.commondreams.org/headlines03/0828-08.htm>

[AndyTiedye]

14. Let's Put That in the Proper Context

"committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes for the president"
Walden O'Dell, CEO

[shrike]

18. Read Palast's article. He makes a convincing case for fraud.

[bettyellen]

13. CAN'T REALLY COMPARE %' S TILL THEY ARE ALL COUNTED, CAN WE??? NO!!!!!!

[koopie57]

15. these are the same people

who will look up at the sky and see it is blue, but a blue sky doesn't fit with their agenda. They tell us the sky is red. 51 percent are happy to be told what to think.

[DeepModem Mom]

17. kick

[lefthandedskyhook]

19. I will never swallow these lies