[Bush's toast] U.S. Q3 GDP increases 3.7% vs. 4.3% expected

[strizi64]

8:30am 10/29/04
U.S. Q3 GDP increases 3.7% vs. 4.3% expected

By Rex Nutting

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) – The U.S. economy grew at a less-than-expected 3.7 percent annual rate in the third quarter after growing 3.3 percent in the second quarter, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. Economists were expecting gross domestic product to grow 4.3 percent. Consumer spending increased at a 4.6 percent rate while business investment grew at a 11.7 percent rate. The core inflation rate increased 0.7 percent annualized, the lowest in 42 years. Real disposable personal incomes increased 1.4 percent, and the personal savings rate fell to 0.4 percent, its lowest level since the Depression.



http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/default.asp?scid=0&siteid=mktw

This is much less then expected :hippie:.....

[depakid]

1. You can probably expect that to be sorrected downward too

after the election, of course. :eyes:

[tritsofme]

2. 4.3% was a ridiculous projection

with $40-$50 oil.

I thought it would be 3%

[Wright Patman]

3. Personal savings 0.4 percent

Lowest level since the Depression. Stunning profligacy. How dare you think you need food, clothing and shelter?

Sir Greenspan has told you people you need to start saving because he's about to yank Social Security and Medicare away from you.

OTOH, you have * and Giuliani saying shopping until dropping is patriotic. Whom to believe?

[Renew Deal]

4. Bush Toast

[wishlist]

5. "lowest level since the Depression" for personal savings

Overall pitiful numbers. I know my family is certainly not saving much in past two years due to higher medical and energy costs and choosing to use disposable income to help out political candidates this year, which we have never before done.

The record home ownership due to low interest rates and the fever to purchase property probably has something to do with the low savings rate also, since so many homeowners (who owe huge amounts on their homes) are sinking all they have into their homes to either make payments or for expensive repairs/remodeling.

[happynewyear]

12. Prosperity is just around the corner - Herbert Hoover 1930

Lots of repairs going on here right now - watching the savings shrink by the second.

What a comparison - the Great Depression and 2004! :grr:

Thanks a lot for nothing *!

:dem: :kick:

[carolinalady]

6. steven friedman on cnbc

this is a "very encouraging" number we have come out of what economists have called a soft patch. Tribute to the growing economy. Leesman adds"and we have low inflation"
business caution: yes, but d/t remarkable bubble in stocks in 1990's people are being cautious.
election: are you surpised election so close? i think Am. people realize President inherited this problem and his poliicies have gotten us out of it.
My take: Great spin job Steve.

[ProfessorGAC]

7. 0.7% Inflation Huh?

Let's do a little math, shall we?

Average person puts 18k miles per year on their car. Average car gets 24mpg. This requires 750 gallons of gas.

One year ago, that would have cost the average consumer $1130. Now, it would cost $1540. The difference is $410.

The median national income is $46k (approximately). The difference in expenses for the average consumer is then $410/$46,000. That's 0.89%. So, the average direct cost for automotive fuel purchases went up by 0.89% for anyone at the median.

That means that for about 62% of the population, the cost of gasoline itself had a 0.7% or greater effect on net purchasing power, at a probablility of 90%. This does, of course, not count those other related costs like natural gas and heating oil.

So, inflation is only 0.7% annualized? See, i told you there were too many dumbasses in the field of economics.
The Professor

[TahitiNut]

9. "core inflation rate increased 0.7 percent annualized" (Strange wording)

It sounds to me like the "core inflation rate" might've gone from 2.0% to 2.7% - since that would be an increase in the rate.

[RivetJoint]

10. Well, core inflation EXCLUDES energy and food costs....

so your little math, which uses gasoline costs, is not applicable.

Shouldn't an economist know that?

[Yavin4]

14. Well, I'm Jude Law

If you exclude the good looks, great acting career, and a British accent.

[ProfessorGAC]

15. That Was My Point, Genius

The inflation rate is NOT 0.7% as stated. That's because it doesn't include the direct cost of energy and food.

Man, are you that dense or do you intentionally attempt obtuse? The whole point of my post was that the 0.7% is MEANINGLESS! How could you have missed something so simple? (Actually, i don't need to ask.)
The Professor

[RivetJoint]

17. The CORE inflation rate does NOT

include food and energy, moron. Are you sure you are a professor?

Nest time make your point without using a factor that is excluded from the measure (ie.e, gasoline). By the way, "professor" some prices do go DOWN.

[ProfessorGAC]

18. I Know That You Twit!

It's pretty obvious now that you lack the skill of reading for comprehension.

My whole point is that the core inflation rate SHOULD include the cost of direct energy expenditures. It doesn't because the econ community hasn't gone through the simple math in my first post.

The POINT you MORON, is that the impact on people of this change in price is as great or GREATER than the CPI and that excluding it is ridiculous.

Of course, since you're obviously denser than tungsten, you wouldn't have been able to follow that simple point.

Do me a favor dumbass: Stop reading my posts. I am a professor, and your insults are not only sophomoric, but unnecessary. YOU are the one who failed to get the point. YOU are the one who refuses to get it after having it explained TWICE. YOU ARE THE MORON.
The Professor

[TahitiNut]

8. 3.66% actually

... and that'll undoubtedly be revised downward. When ultimately adjusted for constant dollars, it'll probably be less than the population growth which means that per capita GDP has declined.

[papau]

11. GDP growth weaker than expected (imports up 7.7%)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A8633-2004Oct29.html

Economy Grows at 3.7% Rate in 3Q

By Jeannine Aversa
Associated Press Writer
Friday, October 29, 2004; 9:55 AM

The U.S. economy grew at a 3.7 percent annual rate in the third quarter -- a pace that was slightly better than in the spring but not as strong as many analysts expected. Friday's government report was the last such broad snapshot of economic activity before Election Day.

The reading on gross domestic product (GDP) for the July-to-September quarter -- the last broad snapshot of economic activity before Election Day -- followed a 3.3 percent growth rate in the prior quarter, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

Analysts were predicting that the economy, which Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan had said hit a "soft patch" in the late spring, would gain traction and expand at a more brisk 4.3 percent rate in the third quarter. <snip>

"The economy right now is running in the middle lane. We're not in the fast lane but we're not on the shoulder or in the break down lane," said Richard Yamarone, economist with Argus Research Corp. <snip>

http://money.cnn.com/2004/10/29/news/economy/gdp/

GDP growth weaker than expected
Third-quarter increase of 3.7% above prior quarter but below Wall Street forecasts.
October 29, 2004: 10:20 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The economy grew at an annual rate of 3.7 percent in the third quarter, the government reported Friday, up from the prior quarter but well below forecasts on Wall Street. <snip>

Growth was helped by strong consumer spending, while inflation remained tame. A slower buildup in inventories by businesses, as well as the trade deficit, were a drag on growth.<snip>

But companies scaled back their investments in building inventories. Private businesses increased inventories $48.1 billion in the third quarter, following an increase of $61.1 billion in the second quarter.

<snip>Exports of goods and services increased 5.1 percent while imports grew 7.7 percent. Both exports and imports grew at a slower rate than in the second quarter.

[Robert Oak]

13. record trade and budget deficits? no problem...not! n/t

[Sinnerman]

16. Pathetic Growth

Once Kerry's in you will see average quarterly growth around 8-10%
I think bill Clintons growth was around 15% a quarter

[demigoddess]

19. oh, you mean 'bush is toast' not 'bush's toast'

I thought he had made a toast to the great economy he had given us. I know you guys type quickly but, please, use the english language so we can understand it.