Poll shows Kerry gaining ground in key Midwestern states

[kskiska]

Published October 12, 2004, 7:36 PM CDT

CHICAGO -- Sen. John Kerry has improved his standing over President Bush in four Midwestern battleground states where domestic concerns of health care and the economy have overtaken the issues of terrorism and Iraq with three weeks remaining in the presidential campaign, a new Chicago Tribune poll shows.

In Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin - states that are among the most contested in the nation - the president's approval rating is below 50 percent, historically a warning sign for an incumbent. While a narrow majority of likely voters in each of those four states say they are dissatisfied with Bush's handling of Iraq and the economy, they still find him to be a strong leader in the war on terror.

(snip)

In Iowa, Bush has support from 47 percent of likely voters, compared to 45 percent for Kerry. Nader attracts the backing of 1 percent. Seven percent remain undecided.

To the north in Minnesota, Kerry leads 45 percent to 43 percent, with Nader attracting support from 2 percent. The remaining 10 percent say they are undecided or plan to vote for someone else.

In Wisconsin, Kerry leads Bush, 47-43, with Nader getting 2 percent and 8 percent saying they remain undecided.

And in Ohio, where Nader's status on the ballot remains in question, Kerry leads 49-45, with 6 percent saying they remain undecided or plan to vote for someone else.

more…
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/specials/elections/chi-041012poll-story,1,7513939.story?coll=chi-news-hed

[rumguy]

1. yippee-ki-yay

motherfucker!

[Indiana_Dem]

2. Oh plluuueaazze let it be true! eom

[RobertDevereaux]

3. Yes, please, I'd like some more of that.

[kikiek]

4. You made my night! Thanks.

[liberalpragmatist]

5. If Bush is Really at 45% in Ohio

Stick a fork into him. He's done. 45% means the final result will be somewhat close, but it means it's very hard for Bush to actually win the state - he'd have to close a lot, and undecided break for the challenger traditionally.

[Zynx]

6. Good stuff, except for Iowa, but I'll take it.

[sonicx]

7. Kerry gets Iowa too if he gets 60% undecideds

[Zynx]

8. I have faith in Iowa. This race is breaking our way.

[Native_Iowan]

10. My Home State Will Come Along

Iowa has gone Democrat since it cast its lot with Michael Dukakis back in 1988. In 1984, it gave Reagan his smallest margin of victory of the 49 states he carried. Mondale only lost by a couple of thousand votes.

Good people like my folks back home are spending their retirement time working their tail off for the Dems, Kerry has led more polls there than he's trailed in recent days, and most of all - our GOTV effort in Iowa is crushing the GOP's puny effort.

I am placing the good karma on the old home to come through for us once again...

[Demoiselle]

15. Today's Rasmussen tracking poll (I think) said Kerry up by 4 pts in Iowa

Saw it here on DU earlier today. Might have been Zogby.

[are_we_united_yet]

9. Are people confusing

strong with obstinate?

[Guaranteed]

11. If this is all true, Kerry wins. nt

[faithnotgreed]

12. we lead in ohio?

[RetroLounge]

13. In Wisconsin, Kerry leads Bush, 47-43

Fucking A right he's leading.

Stupid ass repukes are going down.

The right wing radio yackers are already claiming pre-emptive vote fraud.

[Arugula Latte]

22. That's the figure that made my heart skip a beat.

Wisconsin ... Pleeeeeeeeease come back to the side of sanity.

Your polls have been a little wacky lately. All is forgiven on Nov. 2 when you turn blue.

C'mon, your state is too smart to go for Dumbass.

Let these figures be correct!

[PROGRESSIVE1]

14. Oh how sad....

for George Bush that is!

:)

[fujiyama]

16. These are encouraging numbers

IA isn't all that bad either. It's basically a dead heat. All four of these states will be close...and Kerry definetely needs to win them all.

[liskddksil]

17. Who did these polls?

[Thor_MN]

18. If Minnesota goes red, someone was tampering...

I see a lot more shrub signs than I'd like, but I think * will lose big time. The only people on his side are the dyed-in-the-wool delusional types that will vote for him because they have always voted repug. They aren't getting any mileage of the Clenis anymore

[Polemonium]

19. We're going to win this thing

pass it on

[AZCat]

20. That's not all...

Kerry's closing the gap in a certain southwestern state also.

Take it or leave it, I am happy to see we are moving in the right direction.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

21. HOT DAMN

.

[clt510]

23. chicago tribune polls seem to be outliers

For reference, outlier does not mean wrong .. just statistically they're on one side of the mean (or median) poll results. For example, take OH recent poll results (roughly last 7 days):

Chicago Tribune B45 K49 N1
ARG B47 K48 N1
Survey USA B48 K49
Rasmussen B50 K46
Strategic Vision B51 K43 N1
Columbia Dispatch B51 K44
Zogby Interactive B49 K49

The median values are Bush 50%, Kerry 48% (estimated 1-sigma error of central value=1%)

Like one of the other posters asked, I'd be interested in knowing who did these polls and how their methodology is different. I didn't look too extensively at the other states, but am pretty sure this pattern is true there as well.

[sundancekid]

24. NOT HARDLY ... strategic vision (which is repub) is one of THE outLIARS!

If you throw out the highest/lowest on an acceptable "outlier" assumption, then the Kerry lead holds steady (and it does for the other states too) ... given that the Chicago Tribune is NOT known for being a dem supporter, it's at least more credible than Strategic Vision polling which is documented as RW repub that can be "counted on" to produce "miracle" numbers that always favor you-know-who.

[Maeve]

25. That Columbus Dispatch poll was taken prior to the first debate

And did they ever hear about that when they published it the following Sunday as front page news!