Bush Expects Upward Revision to Jobs Data

[papau]

Bush has CEA "estimate" Jan 05 payroll jobs revision as + 288,000 -but does not plan to release the memo to the public -and because it is a guess - the WH says it may be closer to 500,000, or as little as +100,000.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1203&e=4&u=/nm/20041005/bs_nm/economy_jobs_memo_dc&sid=95609869


Bush Expects Upward Revision to Jobs Data

Tue Oct 5, 3:20 PM ET By Tim Ahmann

PHILADELPHIA (Reuters) - The White House expects revised data due on Friday to show job creation from March 2003 to March 2004 was much more robust than thought, economists who received a White House memo on the subject said on Tuesday.

The memo from the president's Council of Economic Advisers estimates that payroll figures for the 12-month period will be revised upward by 288,000 jobs, the economists said. Current data shows just 709,000 jobs were created in that stretch. <snip>

The Massachusetts senator has hammered Bush over the 913,000 jobs shed since the Republican took office. Kerry hopes to gain from the prolonged bout of job market weakness when voters go to the polls in four weeks. <snip>

CEA chief Gregory Mankiw on Tuesday characterized the memo as just an internal "guess." <snip>

[papau]

1. First QTR 04 revised data likely to make result much lower -but this is *

The Commerce Department has already lowered figures on first-quarter wage and salary growth and analysts have wondered whether this was because payroll growth was more sluggish than first thought or compensation weaker.

These revisions will not be incorporated into the data until it nails down a final number early next year.

Most economists focus on payrolls (as opposed to the smaller Household survey that gives us that nice 5.4% unemployement rate), which is based on a much larger sample, and the Labor Department says it is the most reliable jobs gauge.

[Moderator]

2. Not LBN

Oct 5th date....you post the numbers that are now out