Rasmussen 3 day tracking - Bush 47.9/47.0 Oct 3 4 point spread

[papau]

is about gone


Date Bush Kerry
Today 47.9 47.0
Oct 4 48.6 46.1
Oct 3 49.0 45.4


I wonder if the ABC / Washington Post tracking poll will be honest enough to show the same movement

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

[greekspeak]

1. How long till we start seeing the debate's real effects in these polls?

I am fully expecting a Kerry lead any time now, and it has yet to materialize. I guess it just takes time for things to sink in and the results to start showing up. Falling numbers for the shrubery is a good thing, none the less. But then I ask myself why I even bother to pay any attention to polls. None of them reflect reality. If they did, I think we would see much stronger numbers on Kerry. God forbid the pollsters give us the numbers without cooking them.

[4_Legs_Good]

2. I think we're seeing a *bounce* for Kerry from the debate...

but bounces usually fade. What we need is to turn the bounce into momentum by a big Edwards win today and a serious victory on Friday.

I don't know if my heart can hold on until election day. This is all soooooo stressful.

david

[Career Prole]

4. Is it a sin...

...to pray for bad job numbers for Friday?

[PROGRESSIVE1]

5. I would like to see a loss of 50,000 jobs or more.

If it gets us a win then fine.

[4_Legs_Good]

8. I agree ONLY because I think that a Kerry win

will get those people their jobs back along with the millions of others who have lost their jobs since January 20, 2001.

david

[NEDem]

12. How does 107,863 soon to be lost jobs sound?

Bloomberg News
Published October 5, 2004, 9:43 AM CDT

U.S. employers' announced job-cut plans jumped 41 percent in September from the same month a year earlier, suggesting employment growth is not picking up after a slowdown in the second quarter, a private survey found.

The number of planned payroll reductions as measured by Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. rose to 107,863, from 76,506 in September last year. This was the first time since January that announced planned job cuts exceeded 100,000, the Chicago-based recruiting firm said in a statement.

"The return to six-figure job-cut levels paints a grim picture for ongoing economic growth, as such activity is generally considered a measure of how companies view future business conditions," Challenger Chief Executive John A. Challenger said.

Economists have been expecting the labor market to pickup after a lull in growth in the April-June quarter led to lower-than- expected job gains. The Labor Department may report Oct. 8 that 150,000 jobs were added last month, up from 144,000 in August, the median of forecasts in a survey by Bloomberg News.
....snip

Copyright © 2004, Chicago Tribune

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-041005jobs,1,844883.story?coll=chi-business-hed

[RoyGBiv]

6. Pray for the report ...

The job numbers are already bad. You needn't pray for that. The question is whether they are reported accurately, or how they are reported.

Jobs numbers can be manipulated just like any other "number" that is actually based in part on a statistical model.

So just pray for some truth in advertising. :-)

[4_Legs_Good]

7. Good suggestion!

It's been difficult to know what to hope for lately! When we know that some short term bad news is positive for a long term recovery (with a new administration).

We all want what's best for the country and jobs, but we *know* that the best thing that can happen is to get rid of the George Jr. administration.

david

[Career Prole]

9. Pray for the greater good...my conflict is resolved!

Thanks, guys! :hi:

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

3. My take...

The country is polarized, but each candidate has 4-5 percentage points of his support that is soft. Given a persuasive argument, they could be peeled away from their "chosen" candidate. Bush had a chance last week to solidify his support and weaken Kerry's -- foreign policy and the War on Terror are Bush's supposed strong points.

Now we're going into a series of three debates (one Veep, two Presidential) that play to Kerry's strengths. I look for the Edwards/Cheney debate to further soften up Bush's base of support (especially among women and younger voters). The Town Hall format should further shake look some Bush support, with the final debate doing even more damage.

It's going to be an incremental change; my guess is 1-2 points shift in the polls every ten days or so.

[amandabeech]

10. I think that we'll see continuous movement through the debates.

Recall that many of the "undecided" voters in the various media focus groups were very impressed with Kerry after the debate, but were not totally sold. Many were at least, if not more, interested in domestic issues, and seemed to be withholding final judgment until that debate.

Friday's town hall debate may not move as many voters to Kerry, but I am confident that the domestic policy debate will show a very nice increase for Kerry, because the Shrub domestic policies, particularly health care, don't have much appeal, unless all a voter wants is a tax cut, and he already has all those people sewn up.

[papau]

11. ABC News tracking poll differs from Ras - Bush gains a point in spread!

Vote Preference Among Likely Voters
Bush Kerry Nader
10/4 51% 45 1
10/3 51 46 1