Poll puts Bush, Kerry about even (CNN/Gallup poll, released Sunday.)

[Reciprocity]

Things are looking up y'all.


Poll puts Bush, Kerry about even
Results indicate gain for senator over last such survey
Sunday, October 3, 2004 Posted: 2338 GMT (0738 HKT)

<Snip>
The poll showed Kerry and Bush tied at 49 percent each among likely voters interviewed. Among registered voters Bush had 49 percent and Kerry 47 percent. Independent candidate Ralph Nader was favored by 1 percent in each group.

<Snip>
By contrast, Bush was ahead of Kerry among likely voters 52 percent to 44 percent in the Gallup poll conducted September 24-26. Among registered voters in that poll, the spread was 53 percent for Bush and 42 percent for Kerry. Nader had 3 percent among each group.

<Snip>
The latest poll talked with 1,012 adult Americans by telephone Friday through Sunday, after the presidential debate Thursday. Among those interviewed, 934 said they were registered voters and 772 indicated they were likely to vote.
http://edition.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/03/gallup.poll/

[still_one]

1. It's all bullsh*t

Don't believe any of it. We have to fight like hell, but Kerry will win this election by at least 5%

[Reciprocity]

5. Yea I just read this news article when the CNN poll came out.

Designed to enlighten, polls often add confusion to races
Absentee voters and people with only cell phones left out of surveys
By Josh Richman, STAFF WRITER
http://www.sanmateocountytimes.com/Stories/0,1413,87~11268~2443420,00.html

<Snip>
Anecdotal data suggests there could be a rapidly growing number of young, technologically savvy and perhaps liberal-leaning, voters with only cell phones who are utterly invisible to pollsters, Trounstine said. Usually, when an age group or some other demographic is underrepresented in a polling sample, pollsters can weight the few respondents they've got to make up for the disparity. If there are no such respondents in the sample at all -- like the people with only cell phones -- there's no way to compensate.

<Snip>
In California, registered voters declare a specific party affiliation or decline to state any, making it easy for pollsters trying to build a representative sample, he said. "But you can't do that in states like New Hampshire, where you don't register by party -- and that's a swing state. So how do you model the electorate?"

<Snip>
MoveOn.org, Michael Moore and other liberal entities have attacked the Gallup polling organization recently for methods it uses to identify "likely voters" and for oversampling Republicans, resulting in a bias against Kerry.
For more..
http://www.sanmateocountytimes.com/Stories/0,1413,87~11268~2443420,00.html

[Dogmudgeon]

2. WTF?

Gallup had Bush ahead by as much as 13 points last week. And they are well-known to use methods that skew their results toward the conservative/Republican side.

What happened?

--bkl

[RebelOne]

3. Because they can't deny the debate poll results.

[Beetwasher]

4. Headline SHOULD BE!

Kerry SURGES! Erases Bush Bounce Completely!!

[Moderator]

6. Duplicate

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x881648