The Debates: Why Kerry Is The Underdog

[RedEarth]

One thing is certain in the upcoming Presidential debates: George W. Bush won't be, to use his own word, "misunderestimated." After besting smartypants Al Gore (news - web sites) four years ago in the court of public opinion -- if not on debate points -- Bush earned his spurs as an effective rhetorician whose folksy "average Joe" approach in televised encounters has disarmed foes in three straight elections. And while Republican spinners will build up John Kerry (news - web sites) as a brilliant debater with a track record worthy of the National Forensic League Hall of Fame, it is the President's challenger, not the President, who is on the spot as the debates open at the University of Miami on Sept. 30.



Kerry, whose eight 1996 Senatorial debates against Republican rival William Weld are the stuff of Massachusetts legend, will have to be in top form. After six months in the lead or deadlocked, the Democratic nominee has dropped behind Bush. Equally disconcerting to Dems, Bush now is the people's choice to handle two of the three top issues -- terrorism and Iraq (news - web sites) -- while he's holding his own on the economy. The three Presidential debates and one Vice-Presidential face-off could be Kerry's last best chance to reshape the contest. "The debates are going to be enormously important," says his campaign manager, Mary Beth Cahill.


For Kerry to break through, he will have to survive a clash of debating styles. Bush tends toward the vernacular, while Kerry is far more formal. The plainspoken Bush needs to avoid factual error. The more cerebral Kerry needs to avoid condescension. Immodesty is "the common mistake senators make and why they don't get elected as Presidents," says Republican pollster Ed Goeas. "If Kerry falls back to where he's comfortable -- I'm smarter than George W. Bush -- he will lose the debates."


Americans, say Goeas, want a candidate who is "strong enough to govern." That's why top Democrats say Kerry, while on the stage near Bush, must appear to be a plausible Commander-in-Chief. "The threshold issue (voters) want to be assured of is that they will be safe and their country will be safe," says House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.). To score, Kerry must outline his plans for the war on terrorism and postwar Iraq "with a great degree of clarity and forcefulness," says Hoyer.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=66&ncid=703&e=5&u=/bw/20040927/bs_bw/c3902072mz013

[The Backlash Cometh]

1. Minor point:

Kerry can only be the underdog in this fight. He's the challenger. If Bush is EVER considered the underdog at this point in the game, he should just concede.

[Parche]

2. debate

Isnt the 30Sep debate not about foreign policy? and about domestic
only?

[PermanentRevolution]

7. Debate order

They swapped the first and third. First one's foreign policy, third one's domestic.

[chenGOD]

23. How does that play for the candidates vis a vis the average viewer?

I would think this is better for Kerry, cause the last debate the average viewer will remember is the one on domestic olicies, and Bush sure hasn't done the US any great favours. Job loss all over the place, economy in the shitter for many (except those buying Hummers and in the upper 3 percent of wealthy people), surely Kerry can nail him on domestic issues?

I mean he can nail bush easily on Foreign Policy (can you think of a time when America was less liked in the global community?) and the "war on terror" (no Osama Bin Laden, and the alerts are still flowing, even after 3 years of fighting the damn thing), so surely this will play well for Kerry?

Of course the debate moderators will be placing the questions up there on the tee for bush to take a swing at with the whiffle bat.

[shockingelk]

3. "The plainspoken Bush needs to avoid factual error"

uh ... what else does Bush have going for him other than factual error?

[truthisfreedom]

12. translated: "the simpleton bush needs to avoid lying"

that's more like it.

[paulpaul]

4. His punishment for running against Howard Dean

...

[Zomby Woof]

15. uh huh

Sure thing pal.

[Skittles]

5. Bush did NOT "best" Gore in the debates

expectations for that stupid f*** Bush are so low that when he utters a coherent statement the press takes it like the second coming. The press told the American public this crap that Bush was good but anyone who watched the debates knew Gore won them.

[shockingelk]

6. here's the difference in '04

in order to support his positions, he has to ignore facts ...

- Iraq is not peaceful
- his tax cuts did not create jobs, but did create a huge deficit
- Where's Osama?
- he's an extreme anti-environmentslist

[Carolab]

8. Don't forget

what Medicare is doing to the elderly, NCLB to the children, and the lack of benefits are doing to the military. And what about those oil prices? Whose making money there?

[Zero Gravitas]

22. Gore won the 2000 debates

the SCLM just spun it make Bush look good & they haven't stopped spinning since.

[leesa]

9. Bullshit. The debates were pre-called by the media.

Bush can babble whatever nonsense he wants to and his pet media will call it for him. Remember, Gore lost because of sighs, make-up and using the word "lock-box" too many times. It made no difference that Bush didn't make any sense and was incoherent.
They are starting to plant the seeds of Bush being a real contender. Don't let them do it. He is a complete idiot and he can't speak coherently.

There is no debate on the planet this guy could win if the media weren't his pals.

[Algomas]

10. The fact that Kerry is deemed the underdog...

The fact that Kerry is deemed the underdog is a testament to the utter failure of the Democrats. They are so corrupt and complicit in the Bu$hco heist of America that Kerry has no credibility whatsoever. Given the track record of the Bu$h gang, Kerry should be leading by a huge margin. Instead, his mealy mouth rhetoric makes him come across as a wannabee Bu$h clone on most issues. Hence the flip-flopping charge.
Dean should have been the candidate. He came to the fight with far less baggage than Kerry, who after all is a compromised carreer hack just like the Repukes he is up against. Dean would have been much more forceful in calling out the traitors in the WH.
In this case of the pot calling the kettle black, people will choose the one who looks best in a cowboy hat.
Welcome to the new improved "managed democracy" ahead.

I think I need to go cry myself to sleep now comrades...

[Zomby Woof]

14. Dean lost

Let it go... lol

Cry yourself to sleep, indeed. :eyes:

[Guaranteed]

17. Bush had just better not win,

or we'll ALL be cryin'.

[The_Casual_Observer]

11. "while he's holding his own on the economy"

Holding his own what? Is it just me or are we being led down the path by these assholes?

[pfitz59]

13. "Debate" is a misnomer.....

Correct name should be "two-person press conference". These are not debates. Format favors Bush* because he will get slow-pitch softballs with unlimited strikes! The whole format is a joke....

[Bandit]

21. Yes that is exactly what they should call them

The questions are all well known in advance and practiced by each candidate. The candidates are not allowed to directly interact with the other candidate and no surprise questions will be allowed from any audience member. If a person from the audience asks a question that wasn't pre-screened they will be cut off. That is for the Townhall format that they will have for their second debate These are really just a farce created to make the candidates shine. Of course Bush* is going to win. The fix is in.

[chenGOD]

24. Not softballs...rather....

they will be set up on the tee for him to swing at with the whiffle bat.

[countryken]

16. "The Debates: Why Kerry Is The Underdog"

Kerry and Bush will likely know the questions ahead of time, and Bush is predictable. When Kerry goes first, he should stomp all over Bush's lines with responses such as, "while mr. bush has said in the past (blah blah blah), but recently has had a policy of (blah blah blah) and has tried to wrongly interpret my consistent position of (blah blah blah), let me clarify what I have contended all along.....

Be brief and concise.

[Disturbed]

18. The format and the rules suck!

The Neo Fascists have taken over every facet of our system with the backing of Corp. Amerika, incl. Media.

If J. Kerry and J. Edwards win this election I will be real surprised and happy but the deck is stacked heavily against them.

I agree that H.Dean at least would have been an exciting difference to the Clown In Chief. He probably would have had even less chance than Kerry of winning but the past few months would have had more spark. Hmm...I wonder who Dean would have chosen for VP?

[kysrsoze]

19. Absolutely the way to go. BTW....

Welcome to DU!

[warrens]

20. Snicker

Let them keep building the punk up. Kerry is going to take him apart. Our only worry is if the morons in the general populace feel sorry for him.

THIS time he has a paper trail he can't lie about. The war is going REALLY REALLY bad, the economy sucks, bin Laden is still running around making funny faces at him...

Kerry only has to say, to the flip flop charges, "I supported the right of the President of the United States to intervene to keep our country safe. I did not vote for an incompetent bungler and liar to go for an oil grab."

[Zerex71]

25. Speaking of the debates...

This from CNN.com:

Bush planned a low-profile day at his Crawford, Texas, ranch Tuesday, "crystallizing" his thoughts on policy and sharpening zingers, Bartlett said.

The ranch has an important mind-clearing effect, he said.

"I'm sure some of the best zingers he's given have been (written) out there with a fishing pole in his hands," Bartlett said.


What the hell is there to "crystallize" other than his meth lab??? Also, since when can Junior fish on a pig farm?

[Hand]

26. He doesn't exactly fish...

There's an indoor pond with captive frogs and lots of firecrackers...

:grr:

[Fovea]

27. when can Junior fish on a pig farm?

Do you really want to think about that question?

Ewwww.
Two words... Catfish. Pigpond.
Ewwww.