Kerry Has Edge Over Bush In State Races, Polls Show

[KittyWampus]

Kerry Has Edge Over Bush in State Races, Polls Show

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=akONhVexju10&refer=us

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry leads President George W. Bush in the contest for electoral votes in each state that will decide the election, according to polls by the American Research Group and Zogby International.

Kerry, a four-term Massachusetts senator, leads in 19 states, including California and Illinois, that together have 270 Electoral College votes, according to polls done in all 50 states by the American Research Group. Bush leads in 29 states with a total of 253 electoral votes, including Texas and North Carolina. In 23 states the gap is within the margin of error.

The Zogby polls found Kerry leading in states with 264 electoral votes, Bush leading in states worth 241 and the two tied in Florida and Arkansas.

snip

[clydefrand]

1. Yesssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss

He's gonna win and win big!!!

[The Chronicler]

2. Kerry needs to stay on the offensive.

Never let up. Keep pushing until Nov 2nd.

[mdguss]

6. ARG poll is quality:

That ARG poll called 600 people in EACH state. That is way more statistically valid than a nationwide survey of 500 people. That poll is probably the closest thing to a true snapshot we'll get. Really, this should be emphasized. That they spent that much money--that thing probably cost 500,000 to do--tells a lot about that group's commitment to accuracy.

[sonicx]

3. News channels set off Operation Ignore

"nothing to see here folks...Should Dan Rather Resign?"

[The Chronicler]

4. lmao yup (nm)

[calimary]

9. This is actually a GOOD thing. LET them ignore this.

The longer the enemy remains lulled into complacency, the better for OUR SIDE.

Let them think bush is ahead, and has a large margin, and that everything is ducky everywhere (especially Iraq) except DanRatherLand. Let them. Let them think it's in the bag, so they don't have to sweat it. Meaning: they DON'T have to send more money. They DON'T have to worry about getting out the vote. Hell, they DON'T even have to show up on Election Day. LET THEM THINK THEY'RE IN FAT CITY. Then let them have a rude awakening on the following morning.

[NJCher]

62. junkyard dogs are never lulled into complacency

Cher

[GeorgeBushytail]

5. I am feeling great this week.

8 years of Kerry. 8 years of Edwards. I can see it coming.

The Republican Party will tear itself apart over its internal contradictions when B* loses.

[Jokinomx]

58. Welcome to the Underground GeorgeBushytail....

I hope you enjoy the company. I have said before how important this election is to chimp and the repugs...because they can see the writing on the wall.... 16 years of Democratic rule when Kerry wins.

:-)

:toast:

[GreenGreenLimaBean]

7. Keep telling yourselves

How many Gore voters are even considering switching? But how many Bush voters are out there that you know are switching?

[Chico Man]

8. How many new voters are there?

The 2000 election, if I remember correctly, was not exactly popular.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

19. Outside of Zell Miller and radio talk host Dori Monson?

No one I know of.

[UCLA Dem]

10. I love these numbers!!!

[goclark]

11. Oh Happy Day

I was asking a group of friends the other day if they volunteered to work in the 2000 campaign. NONE did anything but vote on election day.

EVERYONE of those friends is working like crazy this time and sending money to Kerry,MoveOn, sending emails, registering voters etc.

Our Democratic Energy is amazing this time!

Their energy is nothing like ours.

ROVE is another story. He has been working for four years to plant all the dirty tricks.

We must keep our eye on the prize and sock them out on Nov. 2nd.

[Libby2]

66. Our very lives depend on it..n/t

[Jokinomx]

59. Welcome to the Underground UCLA Dem....

I agree.... with so many bogus claims that chimp was 11 points up, it is good to see the real numbers.

I hope to see more of your posts as you get aquainted with the site...

:kick:

:toast:

[Jerseygirltoo]

12. Edwards is on Larry King

Right now on CNN, east coast time

[warrens]

13. That he has kept a statistical tie after all the mud is remarkable

Now is the time to pour it on. It's sad that the moron in chief can get away with his incredibly stupid, repetitive, lying crap, but that's life. Kerry has to settle on a few strong messages and just HAMMER him.

[KittyWampus]

14. It Is Remarkable. Kerry's Going To Win W/Both Hands Tied

behind his back... essentially.

Rovian dirty tricks and a media so biased it's not undeniable.

[Jokinomx]

60. Welcome to the Underground warrens....

Quite a few newbies in this thread...

I just want to say I hope your enjoy the company here. Most posters are great people with some great advice and information.

:kick:

:toast:

[Zorra]

15. This

is really good news.

[mconvente]

16. awesome news

After taking a major beating in August by all the lies by the Freepers and such, the fact that Kerry is tied now looks great. Considering how many people still aren't super sure on Kerry yet but don't really like Bush, and Kerry is still ahead, wait til we get those voters!

[gratuitous]

17. There's your shot of adrenaline

Now, vow to yourself to work hard from now until Nov. 2. Get folks registered to vote, and extract a promise from them that they WILL go to the polls. No excuses.

"I'll take 'Headlines You'll Never See' for $200, Alex."

"The answer is: 'Bush Campaign in Free Fall'."

[nine30]

18. Its not enough..

Its not enough that Kerry wins. The Republican Party should be DESTROYED. They should be utterly and completely DESTROYED, so that for the next 50 years the Democrats set the agenda..an agenda of Peace, Prosperity, Strength and Goodness.

[greyl]

20. Ummmm...

Ya know, I really wouldn't mind at all if some other parties had more influence in Washington if the Repubs were destroyed (which they won't be). One party setting the agenda doesn't sit right with my view of America.

/end tangent - back to the good news. :)

[wabeewoman]

21. There does need to be two

because one gets too arrogant but I do hope this is the end of the right wing take over of the republican party. Bring on the greens or the old republican party and let this last 4 years be a fluke in the history of America. please!

[greendeerslayer]

50. A Pleasant Fantasy

A two party system consisting of the Dems and Greens, the Repukes marginalized around the Christian right and only holding a few southern states...Well back to reality, Kerry and the Dems need to push and fight and scrape and organize all the way to Nov. 2! No let up, no let down.

[mistertrickster]

42. Oh, well, I don't know if I'd go that far. The two party system has

traditionally served our country pretty well, all things considered. The Dems can abuse their positions too if there's no loyal opposition to call them on it.

But destroy the arrogance of the Republicans who want to steal from the poor and give to the rich--yes, I agree with that.

[LeinesRed]

44. he's gotta win

and get the House and Senate back.

[CrispyQ]

53. I'll be happy if the bush cartel is destroyed.

It would be nice to take DeLay down with them, too.

My prediction: Kerry in a landslide. I don't think bushco has a clue how many people are going to turn out to vote that haven't voted in the past or haven't voted in many, many years. There will be DROVES at the polls.

[Jokinomx]

61. Hello nine30

I couldn't agree with you more.... Welcome to the Underground...:-)

BTW... I have two sisters living in Champaign :toast:

[iamjoy]

22. Tied In Florida!?

If that is true, that is awesome because we have been so distracted by the hurricanes and Dubya has been looking like Mr. Generosity passing out ice. On the other hand, north Florida is very Republican and many of them probably don't have phone service right now, so the poll could really be skewed.

[DeepModem Mom]

23. Kick!

[Dr Fate]

24. Ignore the polls- keep working hard.

If we all keep putting in a few hours a week, we can win this one!

Its SOOOO close- just keep working hard and it will happen...

[gavodotcom]

25. Edwards & North Carolina

Hi folks.

I've been having a hard time understanding the selection of Edwards for Veep. I honestly don't see what he brings to the table in terms of garnering votes.

I just don't see how he helps Kerry. Did Kerry really just need someone with a Southern accent on the ticket to win the election, or was there truly no one else?

[jwirr]

39. John Edwards

is strong for labor and jobs and that effects all of us. It also adds a "southern voice" to the ticket so that we represent more than just the Northeast. I am a northerner and will admit to my anger at southern states for their support of the RW but I also know that you cannot rebuild the Democrat Party in the south without recognizing their candidates. Go, John Edwards.

[mistertrickster]

43. He also was the strongest vote getter in the primaries.

(After Kerry, I mean) So, a lot of people liked him. Wait until you see this trial lawyer take Mr. Cheney apart in the VP debates and then it'll all be clear to you.

[RobInRaleigh]

56. edwards

G: Edwards might not bring NC into the blue aisle, true (although there's still a slim chance...and if he did, what a prize that would be!)....
however, his southern charms and style speaks almost as much to midwesterners as it does to Southerners, I think. Particularly in states like Iowa, Missouri, Ohio. I think it also does well in the SW states (AZ, CO and NM), especially seeing as Bill Richardson was not interested. Many have said that he has had more experience courting minority voters....which I do remember his senate run here in NC. It was a good African-American turnout that year that helped him win.

[Vox_Reason]

64. John Edwards is a true exemplar of the American dream

He worked hard for everything he has. Coming from humble origins, the first in his family to go to college, the son of a mill worker, he made his way in life by fighting for regular people who were up against incredible odds. He's 100% genuine, and you'd be very hard pressed to find anyone here in Raleigh who actually knows him who has anything but glowing praise for him and his family.

John Edwards is the genuine article, folks. He's very Clintonian in that he's a self-made guy who's smart as a whip, works like a dog, has his values in the right place, and is relentlessly optimistic. I defy anyone to spend an hour with him and not understand why he is so appealing. I really hope that comes across in the debate with snarl.

I'm very proud to call John Edwards a fellow Tarheel and a fellow citizen of Raleigh, and the next Vice President of the United States!

[shockingelk]

26. kick

:kick:

Also, Kerry has bottomed out and is on the upswing nationally: http://fearofclowns.com/text/net_difference_poll_results/

[callous taoboy]

27. Keep the momentum going: Send money now!

I'm poor as a church mouse but I am throwing everything I can afford to the DNC.

[llmart]

29. Come on DU'ers!

Put your money where your mouth is. I don't make much either, but I have given several times already, albeit not great amounts, but this is what grassroots politics is all about. It's each one of us "little guys" forking over maybe $5 or $10 or $50 that is helping. I haven't donated anything in a couple of decades, but this election is important to our democracy!

The Zogby news started my day out great! GO JFK!!!!

[callous taoboy]

30. kickee

:kick:

[CrispyQ]

54. I've never donated to a political group before.

This year:

John Kerry campaign
Ken Salazar campaign
Richard Morrison campaign -- gotta get the evil Tom DeLay out of office!
Dem National Party
ACLU - even tho I don't agree with all their stands, someone's gotta try to keep ashcroft in line

oh, and of course, DU ;-o

[VOX]

28. This is a tonic!

Keep fighting the good fight!

[b06jgm]

31. Polls mean nothing!! If it showed the opposite, we'd be

screaming how worthless it is. I don't even care about polls anymore.

[Jasper 91]

34. Polls do matter because they can create false expectations

WHY POLLS MATTER... IN STEALING ELECTIONS, THAT IS
Some short disturbing thoughts on what should be a much bigger topic. 60% of all voting machines are papertrail-less Diebolds and clones. The only way we can tell if an election is being stolen is if the results clash strongly with the expectations as forecast by the polls.

In 2000, the VNS exit polls were falsely tagged as "being wrong" in Florida. Result: Bush. In 2002, the VNS polls crashed the day of the election and were never used. Result: Surprising Republican sweep.

Now the 2 post-RNC polls "suddenly" show Bush gaining a 10 percent bounce, despite the improbable mathematics of such a change given the low number of undecided voters.

Fake polls could have 2 purposes: to demoralize the other side and to set expectations for a steal.

[Terran]

32. This would explain why they're dropping ads in some states

as reported in another LBN thread: MiIssouri, Arizona, couple of others. They must be seeing this and feel confident enough to concentrate on shoring up existing support in the states needed to get the 270 electors. Makes sense.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

33. Thta's right. Focused efforts bring the most return.

[dryan]

35. What does Edwards bring to the table???....

1.) extremely articulate
2.) best "stump speaker" in the Democratic party
3.) smart
4.) attractive and sexy
5.) tireless campaigner
6.) beat an incumbent
7.) southerner

[Terran]

36. Ummm....

Replying to the wrong person? Who said anything about Edwards?

[dryan]

57. sorry....

having problems with computer

[LeinesRed]

46. he's attacking hard too

especially after Cheney

[goodboy]

37. doesn't make any sense for him to pull ads does it? EOM

[doc03]

38. Just yesterday Howard Fineman from Newsweek was on Imus

and him and Imus were in agreement that it was all over for Kerry.
Fineman said Kerry had given up on Ohio and was just barely holding on in PA and if he lost PA he didn't stand a chance. Then on NBC news
yesterday afternoon Bush was what 2 points ahead of Kerry and that piece of s--- Nader made up the difference. Apparently all the polls
are total BS either way.

[drfemoe]

40. what does MM have to say about polls?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=108x115753

<snip>

My friends, it is time for a reality check.

1. The polls are wrong. They are all over the map like diarrhea. On Friday, one poll had Bush 13 points ahead -- and another poll had them both tied. There are three reasons why the polls are b.s.: One, they are polling "likely voters." "Likely" means those who have consistently voted in the past few elections. So that cuts out young people who are voting for the first time and a ton of non-voters who are definitely going to vote in THIS election. Second, they are not polling people who use their cell phone as their primary phone. Again, that means they are not talking to young people. Finally, most of the polls are weighted with too many Republicans, as pollster John Zogby revealed last week. You are being snookered if you believe any of these polls.

[LeinesRed]

45. Fineman's a Bush*t family whore

I wish Imus would have reminded him how he wrote the Kerry campaign's obituary last March. I have no use for Howard the Duck.

[mistertrickster]

41. Meanwhile, USA Today online has "Kerry pulls ads from 4 swing states"

meaning that he's so far behind there that money is wasted.

They just keep hammering away on any negative poll data for Kerry.

[Mrs_Beastman]

47. chimpy should start packing now

[DanGough]

48. The work has just begun - spread the word NOW!

I urge everybody to spread the word to undecided voters you know. We preach to the choir here so it is crucil we influence those on the fence. For many people knowing they are with the winner is all that is needed. Spread the word!

[ronnykmarshall]

49. It's gonna be a nail biter!

I really believe that Kerry will win the electoral college and edge out in the popular vote.

[LeftHander]

51. BUt KKKARL said the opposite....

And Karl ALWAYS tells the truth....

[underpants]

52. Ha! That is exactly what I was going to post

:bounce:

[Fookin_A]

55. The Only Poll I Follow

[drfemoe]

67. nm

[Zorra]

63. kick

[Rochambeau]

65. Uhmmm I think it's time for the October Surprise now...Get ready ! n/t

[TaleWgnDg]

68. you're hired, Mr. Kerry!