STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 13 September

[ozymandius]

Monday September 13, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 129
DAYS UNTIL W* GETS HIS PINK SLIP 50
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 276 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 330 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 543
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1026
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 10, 2004

Dow... 10,313.07 +23.97 (+0.23%)
Nasdaq... 1,894.31 +24.66 (+1.32%)
S&P 500... 1,123.92 +5.54 (+0.50%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.18% -0.02 (-0.45%)
Gold future... 403.80 +3.40 (+0.84%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[UpInArms]

1. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.62 Change +0.23 (+0.26%)

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?font=Reuters&pv_noticia=MTFH41643_2004-09-13_12-01-29_L13638136

FOREX-Dollar struggles to recover after data set-back

LONDON, Sept 13 (Reuters) - The dollar bobbed just above three week lows against the euro and Swiss franc on Monday, struggling to recover after weak U.S. inflation data on Friday raised doubts about the pace of future U.S. rate hikes.

Friday's surprise decline in U.S. producer prices gave support to expectations the U.S. central bank might forgo a rate increase in November, and possibly December as well, although another rate hike later this month is widely expected.

Figures on U.S. retail sales, consumer sentiment and consumer prices are due later this week and will be closely scrutinised for clues on the health of the U.S. economy. Data on the U.S. current account and net capital inflows are also scheduled. "The producer prices were certainly a big factor in reducing rate expectations in the U.S. But, we still believe there is a rate hike in the pipeline for September," said Ian Stannard, currency strategist at BNP Paribas.

By 1140 GMT, the euro was a touch weaker on the day at $1.2240 <EUR=> but still less than a cent from Friday's three-week high. The greenback was 0.4 percent firmer against the yen at 110.02 <JPY=> but still within well-worn ranges.

Some dealers said the yen was suffering from speculation of acquisition- related outflows after the Wall Street Journal reported Japan's Sony Corp <6758.T> had raised its offer to buy the MGM <MGM.N> film studio to nearly $5 billion.

...more...

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/content/100270/content.asp?menu=currencies&dia=1392004

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DXM4)

The DX opened lower at our initial Support level of 88.96 ahead of the Aug. PPI and promptly ‘sold-off’, as a weaker than expected report showing a dip to 0.1% had traders taking more risk off the table, sending the DX to a morning Lo of 88.38 before bouncing to 88.48 at the start of the afternoon session. As falling oil prices helped the ‘equity’ market stage a late comeback, the DX recovered to a close of 88.61, down 47 tics and down 111 tics for the week. The prospect for two more ‘rate increases’ by year-end may be in question, based on the latest PPI info, hence the sell-off. The s/t trend remains ‘negative’, along with weak momentum indicators suggest a test of the Aug. low of 88.05. A lower open may find Support at 88.29 and 87.98, while an open above 88.70 should find Resistance at 89.01 and 89.42. The COT report shows commercials liquidating ‘longs’ and adding to their ‘shorts’, decreasing their Net Long position to 2,953 contracts.

...more...

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

2. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +303.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.5. Expectations remain intact for a higher open as the futures indications trend higher... The indices' positive finish to last session's trade, along with the sweeping gains seen in overseas trading, has prepared the cash market for an upbeat start.

8:33AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.0. Futures trade continues to point to a higher open for the indices in an extension of last week's winning streak... Relief the September 11th anniversary did not bring about a spate of bad events has prompted more buying interest in equities.

8:03AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.5. Shaping up for a higher open for the cash market in response to the hefty gains seen in Asia (Tokyo's Nikkei +1.5%) and Europe (Germany's DAX +1.2%)... Follow-through interest from Friday's late- day rally has also played a role in the positive tone.

ino.com

The September NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight and is breaking out above the 50% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 1415.25. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish but becoming overbought hinting that a short-term top might be near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1375.78 are needed to confirm that the rebound off August's low has come to an end. If September extends the rebound off August's low, the 62% retracement level crossing at 1441.98 is the next upside target. The September NASDAQ 100 was up 4.00 pt. at 1417.50 as of 5:49 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was higher overnight and is breaking out above the 75% retracement level of the July- August decline crossing at 1125.15. If the rally continues, a test of gap resistance crossing at 1131.19 is December's next upside target. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish but overbought hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1115.59 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[ozymandius]

3. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood - Dangerous Times

THE DOW REPORT
Dangerous Times

The danger of the current market environment continues to mount. The talking heads and politicians on TV continue to tell us how great the economy is. I can’t deny the fact that the market has indeed been rather resilient. It is this resilience that I believe makes the current environment so dangerous. To the casual observer it may appear that the bearish case is no longer valid because we have held up so well. Yet, the bullish case is iffy simply because of the fact that the market topped some six months ago and has since just chopped back and forth. This has served to confuse and frustrate both the bulls and the bears. This has also served to keep both the bulls and the bears hopeful. My technical work leads me to believe that this market is just as dangerous and maybe even more so than it was in 2000.

-cut-

The most interesting aspect of this extreme complacency or lack of fear is that it is occurring in conjunction with some very bearish underlying technical conditions. One such condition is the Dow theory sell signal, which occurred way back in September 1999. I have referred to this Dow theory sell signal as the “master sell” signal because of the fact that it occurred in the third phase of the late great bull market. We still remain under this “master sell” signal today. Since this “master sell” signal we had a major Dow theory non-confirmation which occurred at the 2000 top.

-cut-

Things are always the most bullish at the top and all of the political leaders will tell you so. They will continue to tell you so all the way down to the bottom as well. The Dow theory does tell the truth if we will listen. Just prior to William Peter Hamilton’s confirmed Dow theory sell signal Roger W. Babson tried to warn the public of the dangers. On September 5, 1929 Roger W. Babson wrote, “Sooner or later a crash is coming which will take in the leading stocks and cause a decline of from 60 to 80 points in the Dow-Jones barometer.” The following good news was spread in the face of a confirmed Dow theory sell signal which Dow theorist William Peter Hamilton warned of and confirmed in October 1929. Few listened to these guys because it simply wasn’t what they wanted to hear. No, the public wanted to here that everything was going to be OK, that this time was different and that the Dow theory was bunk.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

4. Delta Plan May Not Fly

Delta Air Lines (DAL:NYSE - news - research) may be planning radical changes to avoid bankruptcy and to reinvent its business, but the outlook on the carrier remains the same: grim.

This week, the nation's third-largest carrier announced the Delta Solution, its plan to cut costs by $5 billion through 2006 with a top-to-bottom overhaul of every aspect of its business. But reaction to the carrier's plan has been muted, and doubts are growing that the company can actually survive outside of bankruptcy protection.

-cut-

The Solution Unraveled

Delta says it is targeting $5 billion in cost cuts, but that number is a bit misleading when the plan is broken apart. The carrier said it will have cut costs by $2.3 billion through the end of 2004, forcing it to scrounge up the remaining $2.7 billion in cost savings. In a leap of faith, Delta is counting on pilots to contribute $1 billion in wage concessions, which leaves $1.7 billion in cost savings over the next two years.

Because the company hasn't provided specifics, determining where and how the remainder of the $1.7 billion in cost savings will be achieved is not easy. Furthermore, the carrier's plan uses 2002 as a base year and has a number of moving parts, including oil projections, efficiency gains from a system overhaul, debt restructurings and assumed pension liabilities.

http://www.thestreet.com/_tscfoc/markets/ericgillin/10182414.html

[ozymandius]

5. Housing shortage could worsen, warn developers (Britain)

Housing shortages could worsen as fewer properties are built because of the slowdown in the market, the House Builders Federation has warned.

The federation has issued the warning as rate rises begin to bite - the Bank of England has raised interest rates five times to 4.75 per cent since November last year. In spite of the short-term slowdown, the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister expects 189,000 more homes will be needed each year until 2021, up from 150,000 homes a year.

Pierre Williams of the House Builders Federation said the industry was "being held to ransom" by the cyclic nature of the housing market. "There is long-term undersupply in housing provision. That imbalance is making house prices rise at an unsustainable rate," he said.

story

[UpInArms]

6. OPEC Wary as Supplies Weigh on Oil Price

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6218431

VIENNA (Reuters) - OPEC may resist calls to raise oil output quotas much, if at all, when it meets this week for fear of turning a decline from record prices into a rout.

Cartel delegates say the assumption that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will legitimize existing quota-busting by raising official supply limits by a hefty six percent at Wednesday's meeting could prove wide of the mark.

Some expectations had been for OPEC to lift formal production quotas from 26 million barrels a day to match actual supply now that is running at least 1.5 million bpd higher, to help drag prices below $40 a barrel.

UAE Oil Minister Obaid bin Saif al-Nasseri said last week that an increase along those lines was likely to be considered.

But delegates say concerns are growing that cartel output at a 25-year high could produce a hefty stockbuild in the fourth quarter, when inventories normally are drawn down.

"I think there will be strong resistance to the idea of raising quotas to match current output," said a senior OPEC delegate.

...more...

[ozymandius]

15. Do they change their tune every week?

Seems to me that either OPEC or Saudi Arabia sound the keynote alternately each week regarding the price and volume of oil exports. Who is steering this ship?

[UpInArms]

20. Some Wonder if OPEC Is Still Relevant

http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2004/09/13/ap1540955.html

As members of OPEC ready for a key meeting on whether to adjust oil prices, some petroleum companies and analysts are wondering if the cartel is becoming irrelevant in the modern, global economy.

The 11-member cartel meets this week to decide whether to increase its production band and prices, or lower them, amid wildly oscillating oil markets that have been hampered by fears about Hurricane Ivan, repeated attacks on oil facilities in Iraq and instability in Venezeula.

"Production is already over quota and over the likely higher quota. The prices are already over the higher price band," Adam Sieminski, an oil price strategist with Deutsche Bank in London, told The Associated Press. "In theory, it doesn't really matter very much."

His comments came after a senior delegate told Dow Jones Newswires on Monday that there is a real possibility the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries could raise its production by as much as 2 million barrels a day, or more than 7 percent, when it meets Wednesday.

...more...

Seems like you have company in your view, Ozy.

[UpInArms]

7. Campbell Soup's 4Q Profit Declines

http://www.forbes.com/work/feeds/ap/2004/09/13/ap1540916.html

Campbell Soup Co., the world's largest soup maker, reported Monday that fourth-quarter profits fell as higher promotional spending, restructuring costs and lower sales drove earnings below Wall Street expectations.

Quarterly earnings fell to $59 million, or 14 cents per share, from $74 million, or 18 cents per share, a year ago. Excluding a gain on the sale of a California manufacturing plant and restructuring charges, the company posted earnings of 17 cents per share in the latest quarter. Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call expected Campbell to post earnings of 18 cents per share in the fourth quarter.

Sales fell 2 percent to $1.43 billion from $1.46 billion, primarily due to there being one less week in the latest quarter as well as increased promotional spending.

Douglas R. Conant, Campbell's president and chief executive officer, said, "Our sales on a comparable basis in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2004 were strong and we have good momentum as we begin the new fiscal year. As anticipated, in the United States our investment this year in quality, convenience packaging, and more focused marketing helped us to maintain substantial growth in our ready-to-serve soup business and to moderate the decline in condensed soup sales."

...more...

[ozymandius]

8. Pensions 'to pour $250bn into hedge funds'

US institutional investors, mostly pension funds, could pour $250bn into hedge funds in the next four years, and by 2008 could account for half of all hedge fund inflows in a trend that would transform the fledgling industry.

About 400 US institutions had $66bn invested in hedge funds by the end of 2003, with half of that from endowments and foundations, according to a study by the Bank of New York and consultancy Casey, Quirk & Acito, to be released on Monday. That invested capital would rise to more than $300bn by 2008, as pension funds, especially defined benefit plans, flocked to the sector, the study said.

Five years ago, hedge fund investors were almost entirely wealthy individuals and families, and inflows from pension funds were negligible. At present, they account for about 15 per cent of inflows.

-cut-

Paul Reynolds, a managing director at pension consultant Russell Investment Group, said defined benefit pension funds, such as those run by the airline and motor industries, are increasingly underfunded, squeezed between shrinking workforces and relatively low returns from bonds and equities. They are looking to alternative strategies to boost returns, he said.

story

Why does this remind me of some Florida real estate scam?

[54anickel]

21. NOOooo! More Greenspinism and the re-defining (stealing) of our

personal wealth! In that "moran's" charge over the last nearly 20 years the whole idea of personal wealth has moved from savings to investment to pure speculation (bets) and debt!

IMHO we are witnessing the coming conclusion of the greatest robbery of individual's wealth in our Nation's lifetime! But remember, I'm in the doom and gloom corner with the economic girlie-men. B-)

[ozymandius]

9. Rosy outlook from Greenspan fails to sway many economists

WASHINGTON (AFP) - The upbeat outlook from Federal Reserve (news - web sites) Chairman Alan Greenspan (news - web sites) has failed to convince many economists, who argue that the United States is likely to see tepid growth at best in the near future.

Greenspan on Wednesday said the economy appears to be weathering a slowdown related to the steep rise in oil prices, arguing that the expansion "has regained some traction."

But some experts say Greenspan may be putting the best possible spin on an economy that is just muddling through.

-cut-

"The Fed chairman is not above politics," said Shenfeld, who argues that the central bank has put itself in the position of boosting rates weeks before the presidential election or acknowledging that the economy is faltering.

story

[ozymandius]

11. Greenspan defies the intentional role of the Fed chairman.

What is so viscerally repulsive about this man, to me, is that he sees no problem with tuning his language to rhyme with Bush's campaign rhetoric.

In ten years, will we look upon his tenure and feel some urge to hit our heads against the wall?

[UpInArms]

14. Fed chairman meets frequently with Bush officials

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/5074781/

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's visits to the White House and meetings with top administration officials increased sharply after President Bush took office in January 2001, according to records released to an academic researcher under the Freedom of Information Act.

<snip>

But Fed spokeswoman Michelle Smith said Tuesday that Greenspan met with administration foreign policy officials to discuss international economic policy. Particularly since the U.S. invasion of Iraq last year, Middle East instability and its potential effects on the world oil supply have been key concerns. Another frequent topic is the interplay of economic and foreign policy issues in many areas.

"The chairman believes a central mission of the Federal Reserve is to contribute in whatever way possible to the stability of the American economy," Smith said. "Although they are unelected officials, the Federal Reserve must be accountable to the American people as it undertakes that effort."

Greenspan met more frequently with Treasury officials during the Clinton administration than during the Bush (I) administration, the records show. Smith, who worked at the Clinton Treasury Department before joining the Fed, noted that international economic policymaking was more concentrated at Treasury in the Clinton administration.

Since the 1950s, when the Fed's independence was firmly established, its chairmen have generally taken pains to maintain their distance from the executive branch. The Fed's ability to conduct monetary policy without regard to political fallout is thought to be key to its credibility in financial markets.

<snip>

Greenspan's frequent contacts with the Bush administration do raise questions for Kenneth H. Thomas, a lecturer in finance at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. "There's the appearance that might not just be affected by economic winds, but possibly by political winds," said Thomas, who obtained records of Greenspan's appointments back to 1996 through the Freedom of Information Act, and who published his findings in an article in the American Banker last month.

Thomas praised Greenspan's performance as Fed chairman, but noted that Greenspan provided critical support for the Bush tax cuts, and now advocates making the tax cuts permanent. In a presidential election year, Thomas said, Greenspan's close contacts with the administration "become at least a potential appearance problem."

<snip>

But Greenspan's methods clearly changed after Bush took office. The Fed records show that Greenspan has called on the White House Council of Economic Advisers about as often during Bush's years as he did in the four years of President Clinton's second term. However the number of appointments with other White House officials jumped sharply with the new administration, from an average of three per year from 1996 through 2000, to 44 per year in 2001 through 2003. The chairman has already made 12 such visits in the first three months of this year, the latest data available.

The chairman has met with Vice President Cheney at least 17 times since early January 2001; Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, 11 times; Rice, 12 times; Card, six times; Powell, once; Deputy Defense Secretary Paul D. Wolfowitz, twice; and Cheney's chief of staff I. Lewis Libby, once, according to the Fed's copies of Greenspan's schedule.

Greenspan had at least four official appointments with Cheney and one with Rumsfeld before the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, according to the Fed records.

...more...

[54anickel]

22. WHAT?!?!? WTF? Cheney, Dumsfeld, Condi, Wolfie, et al?

At least under Clinton it was focused on the Treasury. WTF do these PNACers have to do with monetary policy and the Fed?

This is extremely disturbing to me UIA.

[UpInArms]

23. disturbs me also, 54anickel -

do you remember the EO that was issued on March 20, 2003 prior to the Iraq invasion?

http://www.fas.org/irp/offdocs/eo/eo-13290.htm

Executive Order 13290 of March 20, 2003

Confiscating and Vesting Certain Iraqi Property

By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (50 U.S.C. 1701 et seq.) (IEEPA), the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1601 et seq.), and section 301 of title 3, United States Code, and in order to take additional steps with respect to the national emergency declared in Executive Order 12722 of August 2, 1990,

I, GEORGE W. BUSH, President of the United States of America, hereby determine that the United States and Iraq are engaged in armed hostilities, that it is in the interest of the United States to confiscate certain property of the Government of Iraq and its agencies, instrumentalities, or controlled entities, and that all right, title, and interest in any property so confiscated should vest in the Department of the Treasury. I intend that such vested property should be used to assist the Iraqi people and to assist in the reconstruction of Iraq, and determine that such use would be in the interest of and for the benefit of the United States.

I hereby order:

Section 1. All blocked funds held in the United States in accounts in the name of the Government of Iraq, the Central Bank of Iraq, Rafidain Bank, Rasheed Bank, or the State Organization for Marketing Oil are hereby confiscated and vested in the Department of the Treasury, except for the following:

(a) any such funds that are subject to the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations or the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations, or that enjoy equivalent privileges and immunities under the laws of the United States, and are or have been used for diplomatic or consular purposes, and

(b) any such amounts that as of the date of this order are subject to post-judgment writs of execution or attachment in aid of execution of judgments pursuant to section 201 of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002 (Public Law 107 297), provided that, upon satisfaction of the judgments on which such writs are based, any remainder of such excepted amounts shall, by virtue of this order and without further action, be confiscated and vested.

Sec. 2. The Secretary of the Treasury is authorized to perform, without further approval, ratification, or other action of the President, all functions of the President set forth in section 203(a)(1)(C) of IEEPA with respect to any and all property of the Government of Iraq, including its agencies, instrumentalities, or controlled entities, and to take additional steps, including the promulgation of rules and regulations as may be necessary, to carry out the purposes of this order. The Secretary of the Treasury may redelegate such functions in accordance with applicable law. The Secretary of the Treasury shall consult the Attorney General as appropriate in the implementation of this order.

Sec. 3. This order shall be transmitted to the Congress and published in the Federal Register.

George W. Bush

THE WHITE HOUSE,

March 20, 2003.

[UpInArms]

24. the EO in August 2003 was interesting also

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/08/20030829-1.html

Executive Order
Executive Order Blocking Property of the Former Iraqi Regime, Its Senior Officials and their Family Members, and Taking Certain Other Actions

By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (50 U.S.C. 1701 et seq.) (IEEPA), the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1601 et seq.), section 5 of the United Nations Participation Act, as amended (22 U.S.C. 287c) (UNPA), and section 301 of title 3, United States Code, in view of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1483 of May 22, 2003, and in order to take additional steps with respect to the situation in Iraq,

I, GEORGE W. BUSH, President of the United States of America, hereby expand the scope of the national emergency declared in Executive Order 13303 of May 22, 2003, to address the unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States posed by obstacles to the orderly reconstruction of Iraq, the restoration and maintenance of peace and security in that country, and the development of political, administrative, and economic institutions in Iraq. I find that the removal of Iraqi property from that country by certain senior officials of the former Iraqi regime and their immediate family members constitutes one of these obstacles. I further determine that the United States is engaged in armed hostilities and that it is in the interest of the United States to confiscate certain additional property of the former Iraqi regime, certain senior officials of the former regime, immediate family members of those officials, and controlled entities. I intend that such property, after all right, title, and interest in it has vested in the Department of the Treasury, shall be transferred to the Development Fund for Iraq. Such property shall be used to meet the humanitarian needs of the Iraqi people, for the economic reconstruction and repair of Iraq's infrastructure, for the continued disarmament of Iraq, for the costs of Iraqi civilian administration, and for other purposes benefiting the Iraqi people. I determine that such use would be in the interest of and for the benefit of the United States. I hereby order:

Section 1. Except to the extent provided in section 203(b)(1), (3), and (4) of IEEPA (50 U.S.C. 1702(b)(1), (3), and (4)), or regulations, orders, directives, or licenses that may be issued pursuant to this order, and notwithstanding any contract entered into or any license or permit granted prior to the effective date of this order, all property and interests in property of the former Iraqi regime or its state bodies, corporations, or agencies, or of the following persons, that are in the United States, that hereafter come within the United States, or that are or hereafter come within the possession or control of United States persons, are blocked and may not be transferred, paid, exported, withdrawn, or otherwise dealt in:

(a) the persons listed in the Annex to this order; and

(b) persons determined by the Secretary of the Treasury, in

consultation with the Secretary of State,

(i) to be senior officials of the former Iraqi regime or

their immediate family members; or

(ii) to be owned or controlled by, or acting or purporting to

act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, any of

the persons listed in the Annex to this order or

determined to be subject to this order.

Sec. 2. The Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Secretary of State, is authorized to confiscate property that is blocked pursuant to section 1 of this order and that he determines, in consultation with the Secretary of State, to belong to a person, organization, or country that has planned, authorized, aided, or engaged in armed hostilities against the United States. All right, title, and interest in any property so confiscated shall vest in the Department of the Treasury. Such vested property shall promptly be transferred to the Development Fund for Iraq.

Sec. 3. (a) Any transaction by a United States person or within the United States that evades or avoids, has the purpose of evading or avoiding, or attempts to violate any of the prohibitions set forth in this order is prohibited.

(b) Any conspiracy formed to violate any of the prohibitions set forth in this order is prohibited.

Sec. 4. For purposes of this order:

(a) the term "person" means an individual or entity;

(b) the term "entity" means a partnership, association, trust, joint venture, corporation, group, subgroup, or other organization;

(c) the term "United States person" means any United States citizen, permanent resident alien, entity organized under the laws of the United States or any jurisdiction within the United States (including foreign branches), or any person in the United States;

(d) the term "former Iraqi regime" means the Saddam Hussein regime that governed Iraq until on or about May 1, 2003;

(e) the term "coalition authority" means the Coalition Provisional Authority under the direction of its Administrator, and the military forces of the United States, the United Kingdom, and their coalition partners present in Iraq under the command or operational control of the Commander of United States Central Command; and

(f) the term "Development Fund for Iraq" means the fund established on or about May 22, 2003, on the books of the Central Bank of Iraq, by the Administrator of the Coalition Provisional Authority responsible for the temporary governance of Iraq and all accounts held for the fund or for the Central Bank of Iraq in the name of the fund.

Sec. 5. I hereby determine that the making of donations of the type specified in section 203(b)(2) of IEEPA (50 U.S.C. 1702(b)(2)) by or to persons determined to be subject to the sanctions imposed under this order would seriously impair my ability to deal with the national emergency declared in Executive Order 13303 and expanded in scope in this order and would endanger Armed Forces of the United States that are engaged in hostilities, and I hereby prohibit such donations as provided by section 1 of this order.

Sec. 6. For those persons listed in the Annex to this order or determined to be subject to this order who might have a constitutional presence in the United States, I find that because of the ability to transfer funds or other assets instantaneously, prior notice to such persons of measures to be taken pursuant to this order would render these measures ineffectual. I therefore determine that for these measures to be effective in addressing the national emergency declared in Executive Order 13303 and expanded in scope in this order, there need be no prior notice of a listing or determination made pursuant to section 1 of this order.

Sec. 7. The Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Secretary of State, is hereby authorized to take such actions, including the promulgation of rules and regulations, and to employ all powers granted to the President by IEEPA and UNPA as may be necessary to carry out the purposes of this order. The Secretary of the Treasury may redelegate any of these functions to other officers and agencies of the United States Government, consistent with applicable law. All agencies of the United States Government are hereby directed to take all appropriate measures within their authority to carry out the provisions of this order.

Sec. 8. The Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Secretary of State, is authorized to determine, subsequent to the issuance of this order, that circumstances no longer warrant inclusion of a person in the Annex to this order and that such person is therefore no longer covered within the scope of the order.

Sec. 9. Nothing in this order is intended to affect the continued effectiveness of any rules, regulations, orders, licenses, or other forms of administrative action issued, taken, or continued in effect heretofore or hereafter under 31 C.F.R. chapter V, except as expressly terminated, modified, or suspended by or pursuant to this order.

Sec. 10. This order shall not apply to such property as is or may come under the control of the coalition authority in Iraq. Nothing in this order is intended to affect dispositions of such property or other determinations by the coalition authority.

Sec. 11. This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, instrumentalities, or entities, officers or employees, or any other person.

Sec. 12. This order is effective on 12:01 a.m. EDT on August 29, 2003.

Sec. 13. This order shall be transmitted to the Congress and published in the Federal Register.

GEORGE W. BUSH

THE WHITE HOUSE,

August 28, 2003.

--

especially in light of the $8.8 Billion in missing funds.

[54anickel]

25. Reads like a license to pillage to me. The 8.8 billion is obviously

simply considered fair game.

[UpInArms]

10. His urgent message about the deficit is reaching its audience

http://www.sptimes.com/2004/09/13/Columns/His_urgent_message_ab.shtml

excerpt:

For the record, the complete title of Peterson's book is Running on Empty: How the Democratic and Republican Parties Are Bankrupting Our Future and What Americans Can Do About It (Farrar Straus Giroux, $24). Consider it an equal-opportunity basher of any and all U.S. leaders who choose to ignore one of the country's great looming financial and demographic nightmares.

What haunts Peterson is a frightful mix: a growing national debt, the rapidly aging U.S. population, and the already out-of-control payments to the elderly via Social Security and Medicare programs.

The combination means we're heading for a runaway debt that, left unaddressed, will dump an enormous bill on the next generation or two. Or three. That "bankrupting our future," to quote the book's title, is immoral, Peterson argues.

Has the country's checking account ever gone from black to red so quickly? When President Bush took office, the federal government basked in a 10-year projected surplus of $5.6-trillion. Now we're looking at an estimated debt approaching $7.4-trillion, if all of Bush's current tax cuts are made permanent. That means deficits averaging $740-billion a year.

Let's be crystal clear. This book likely never would have seen the light of day - and absolutely never reached bestseller status - if Bush had not taken office in 2001 with a surplus in the federal budget and then plunged the nation rapidly back into the red.

How? With three big tax cuts, the bursting of the stock market bubble, the impact from the 9/11 attacks, and (most of all) the war in Iraq. The war's cost alone comes to about $7.4-million per hour, $122,820 per minute.

All this presidential campaign talk of economic recovery galls Peterson, who at age 78 sees much of today's so-called uptick based on money borrowed from future Americans.

Now, he believes, more Americans are starting to catch on to the shell game. Vice President Dick Cheney's stance that "deficits don't matter" is nonsense to Peterson.

The Bush administration wants to cut taxes, yet still spend at unsustainable levels. Peterson calls them "big government Republicans" who daydream that the U.S. economy can simply grow big enough to replenish any and all deficits ahead.

Even fiscal conservatives, traditional Bush allies, are starting to snipe. Stephen Moore of the Club for Growth, a group that raises money for conservative political candidates, last week called Bush's fiscal record "abysmal."

...more...

[ozymandius]

13. I saw this book at Border's yesterday.

Displayed very prominently just inside the door at the New Release tables. It looks like the stack had been picked over as there was a noticeable dent in Running on Empty compared to other books.

[KoKo]

18. Somehow I think he would advocate cutting social and entitlement programs

before reigning in the military spending for programs like "Star Wars" and the waste that Rumsfelds Pentagon is engaged in with giving out contracts to their buddies at Halliburton, and private mercenaries for hire at Blackwater and Caci and paying operatives like Chalabi and their other renegade informants.

Whenever Republicans talk about spending going out of control, it's the people who have to suffer and not the folks like Petersen. I'm glad he's concerned and he certainly should be. Maybe some folks will wake up to the reality that Bush has been a big spender and created more government beaurocracy in four years than any Democrat has been able to achieve. Incredible that Repugs always run on "fiscal discipline." And, Clinton gets no credit for attempting to turn any of it around.

[UpInArms]

12. 9:37 EST markets are open

Dow 10,316.39 +3.32 (+0.03%)
Nasdaq 1,898.67 +4.36 (+0.23%)
S&P 500 1,124.10 +0.18 (+0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.182% +0.002

bit of hangover pre-opening blather:

9:16AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.5. Still looks like a moderately higher open for the cash market at the end of pre-market trading... Look for the tech sector to outperform in the early action.

[UpInArms]

16. Qwest ex-CEO Nacchio may face SEC civil action-WSJ

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=6217029

NEW YORK, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Joseph Nacchio, former chief executive of Qwest Communications International Inc. (Q.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , may soon face civil charges over improper accounting at the No. 4 U.S. local phone company, the Wall Street Journal said on Monday, citing unnamed people familiar with the matter.

The Journal's report comes after a person familiar with the situation told Reuters on Friday that Qwest had agreed to pay $250 million to settle SEC financial and disclosure fraud charges, without admitting or denying wrongdoing.

According to the Journal, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission recently sent a "Wells notice" to Nacchio indicating that its enforcement staff plans to recommend civil charges.

A Wells notice gives a recipient a chance to respond to show why charges should not be brought.

Nacchio might face charges related to helping Qwest improperly inflate revenue, the newspaper said, citing unnamed people familiar with the matter.

Denver-based Qwest, the dominant local phone company in 14 U.S. states from Minnesota to Washington, restated $2.5 billion of revenue for 2000 and 2001. Nacchio resigned from the company in June 2002.

...more...

and this made me remember -

http://www.hindu.com/2003/10/04/stories/2003100402751501.htm

Carlyle group invests in QuEST

CHENNAI: The Carlyle Group has announced that it has invested $6 million in Quality Engineering and Software Technologies LLC (QuEST), a leading provider of engineering solutions for advanced technology products in the aerospace, automotive and power generation, oil and gas, and industrial product domains. The funds will be used to grow QuEST's infrastructure and facilities in the U.S. and India as part of its ongoing global expansion plan and support the company's acquisition strategy, according to a release. This venture capital investment came from Carlyle Asia Venture Partners II, a $170 million fund that invests in technology companies in Asia and India, the release adds.

[ozymandius]

17. Some blather for you at 10:25

Stocks Higher As Profit Worries Ease

NEW YORK - Stocks moved narrowly higher in early trading Monday as investors discounted another technology profit warning and focused instead on positive outlooks for third- and fourth-quarter earnings.

While some investors were concerned that rising energy prices would undermine third-quarter results for many companies, a new report by J.P. Morgan Securities said disappointing earnings would not be a factor. The brokerage also raised its year-end target on the Standard & Poor's 500 index to 1,200 from 1,150.

-cut-

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by more than 4 to 3 on the New York Stock Exchange (news - web sites), where volume came to 141.06 million shares, compared to 141.04 million at the same point on Friday.

story

[UpInArms]

19. 10:43 numbers and blather

Dow 10,319.04 +5.97 (+0.06%)
Nasdaq 1,907.91 +13.60 (+0.72%)
S&P 500 1,126.58 +2.66 (+0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 4.175% -0.005

10:30 ET Major indices creep higher, although gains remain modest at this point... The positive disposition of the breadth figures, combined with the broad-based nature of sector participation, has helped in this matter... Most of technology (semiconductor, software, networking, disk drive) has moved noticeably higher, and found support in apparel and oil service... The latter has been boosted by the 2% jump in the price of crude oil, to $43.73/bbl, due to the negative ramifications of Hurricane Ivan on US oil supply, in particular... Right now, the path of the hurricane dictates it will run through a number of key oil rigs and disrupt production there... ..SOX +1.7%. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1605/1154. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1526/1053.

10:00 ET Stocks continue to sport a positive bias, although the Dow has dipped into negative territory... Losses in Altria Group (MO 49.01 -0.21) and Merck (MRK 45.15 -0.62) have weighed heavily on the average and offset gains in over half of its components... Merck, specifically, has been dragged lower on a FDA Advisory Panel's vote against AstraZeneca's (AZN 41.55 -2.19) anti-clotting agent Exanta - a drug which Merck was poised to receive a royalty on US sales... Drug is thus one of the weakest groups in the early action, along with banking, airline, utility, and airline... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1503/1026. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1488/929.

[54anickel]

26. 12:47 update and blather

Dow 10,336.66 +23.59 (+0.23%)
Nasdaq 1,917.52 +23.21 (+1.23%)
S&P 500 1,128.88 +4.96 (+0.44%)
10-yr Bond 4.15% -0.03
30-yr Bond 4.946% -0.025
NYSE Volume 613,392,000
Nasdaq Volume 932,711,000

12:30PM: Buyers continue to dabble in stocks, although their interest remains fairly concentrated in tech... Given the sentiment that the market reached oversold conditions over the summer, it makes sense that tech (and not blue chips) would perform best today... Sectors (such as financial - comprises 21% of the S&P 500) that still exert considerable influence in the market, though, have not shown substantial upside... Financial itself is showing gains of only 0.1%... Regional banking has been one of the worst components, with brokerage (XBD +0.3%) rounding out the top of the list...NYSE Adv/Dec 2086/1043, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1893/1028

12:00PM: It's been another morning of gains for the indices as buyers have been encouraged by the strength in Europe (Germany's DAX +1.7%) and Asia (Tokyo's Nikkei +1.5%) and a sense that investor sentiment is starting to turn positive... The tech sector successfully shrugged off a Q3 (Sept) revenues warning from Broadcom (BRCM 30.15 +2.81), gathering that it was probably the last of many from influential semiconductor players... Relief that the September 11 anniversary weekend was absent of any attacks has also led to today's buying drive...

Not surprisingly, most of the strength is concentrated in tech - semiconductor, internet, storage, and disk drive especially... Biotech has also followed suit, along with oil service... The latter has caught a bid off the over 3% advance in the price of crude oil (to $43.95/bbl)... Hurricane Ivan's anticipated path over the Gulf of Mexico crosses over several oil rigs, which raises supply concerns particularly after several weeks of US oil inventory declines...Not every industry group has found buying interest in today's trade, though - banking, tobacco, and airline have actually traveled lower...

Airline specifically has sank on US Airways' (UAIR 0.86 -0.60) second bankruptcy filing in two years - due to high fuel costs and intense competition that hangs over other airlines...SOX +3.2, NYSE Adv/Dec 2041/1029, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1881/996

11:30AM : The market continues to stretch to new session highs, led by a strong tech sector... Buyers have flocked to that area, lured by a sense that sentiment is bottoming in that group... After a horrendous summer in which the Nasdaq dived to new yearly lows, traders have found favor in tech - looking for contrarian appeal following a number of warnings... Barron's actually profiled the industry favorably today, nothing that shares now trade at a P/E ratio similar to that of the overall stock market's... SOX +3.7, NYSE Adv/Dec 1995/1006, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1850/979

11:00AM : Equities continue to run in place in the absence of meaningful news items... No real reasons have emerged today to sell stocks, but then again, no true negative catalysts have emerged either... The Nasdaq itself has paused after taking out an intraday resistance level at 1903/1904 (marks the 50% retrace of the June/August slide and the 200 day exponential moving average)... The next resistance area for the Composite can be found in today's The Technical Take (a Briefing.com Platinum Product)...

Semiconductor is doing its part to keep tech well bid - which is particularly impressive after Broadcom's (BRCM 30.15 +2.45) Q3 (Sept) sales warning... Its resilience has likely inspired more buying interest in the past minutes...SOX +2.9, NYSE Adv/Dec 1879/1059, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1752/974

10:30AM : Major indices creep higher, although gains remain modest at this point... The positive disposition of the breadth figures, combined with the broad-based nature of sector participation, has helped in this matter... Most of technology (semiconductor, software, networking, disk drive) has moved noticeably higher, and found support in apparel and oil service... The latter has been boosted by the 2% jump in the price of crude oil, to $43.73/bbl, due to the negative ramifications of Hurricane Ivan on US oil supply, in particular...

Right now, the path of the hurricane dictates it will run through a number of key oil rigs and disrupt production there...SOX +2.6, NYSE Adv/Dec 1605/1154, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1526/1053

[54anickel]

27. How to retire rich without even thinking

http://www.prudentbear.com/randomwalk.asp

snip>

Not so today. Investors enjoy running out and buying stocks, comforted that they’ll provide fine performance eventually. We don’t even need academic research to know this. We know this because retirement plan providers are launching a new product with this sentiment as its very premise.

The product is called an “autopilot 401(k).”

The idea behind this aeronautical-sounding deal is that since people can only fill out so much paperwork without screaming "stop the madness, please stop!" over and over, they need some encouragement when it comes to signing up for the company retirement plan. One way to do this is for the director of human resources to chase employees around the office with a cattle prod in one hand and a pen in the other until everyone signs up for 401(k) contributions. Since this approach can crimp company productivity, particularly in warehouse situations where employees can hop on a forklift and disappear for weeks, the autopilot 401(k) is ginning up interest.

snip>

However, it’s not the automatic contributions, but the way promoters are talking about how investments can be handled that reminds us just how warm and fuzzy stocks still seem. That’s because some plans will not only take the money, they’ll fix the asset allocation for them. The “appropriate” asset allocation, of course, will include stocks. As a plan provider explained in this AP Story the plan can not only automatically increase the rate contributed each year until the employee reaches the maximum level of contribution, it can also "...automatically put the participant into the appropriate lifestyle funds as he or she gets older.”

A lifestyle fund, as all cutting edge investors know, is a fund of funds that allocates bond and stock exposure based on the age of the participant. That is, the stock allocation for his long-term is the same as her allocation if they’re both the same age. The problem, of course, is that not all long terms are equal. The chart below from Adam Hamilton shows how some long term periods, when it comes to the stock market, are better than others.



more...

[54anickel]

28. The Corporate Paradox

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20040913-mon.html#anchor0

Corporate America just doesn’t get it. Or does it? With companies awash in newfound earnings and cash flow, most believed that US businesses would step up and deliver on the hiring and capacity expansion fronts. That hasn’t happened. Instead, companies have cut back on hiring as never before, stretched existing workforces, and earmarked investment budgets mainly toward the replacement of obsolete or worn out capital stock. The liquidity windfall has been retained for another day -- or paid out to shareholders in the form of dividends and accelerated stock buybacks. Contrary to widespread expectations, the healing of Corporate America has not jump-started recovery in the broader US economy. The critical questions: Why not, and will this trend continue?

There can be no mistaking Corporate America’s wherewithal to spend. By virtually all measures, there has been a stunning improvement in the financial position of US businesses in the past couple of years. Profit margins have rebounded sharply following the last recession. For nonfinancial corporations, economic profits (adjusted for depreciation and inventory accounting distortions) per unit of real gross value added hit 11 cents on the dollar in 2Q04; that’s up sharply from the low of 6 cents in 4Q01 and essentially back to levels prevailing in mid-1999. Dick Berner has underscored the even more stunning resurgence in corporate cash flow and liquidity; by his calculations, cash flow from current operations surged to a record 16.3% of corporate GDP in 2Q04, and the “quick ratio” (liquid assets as a share of short-term liabilities for nonfinancial corporations) hit 38.1% in mid-2004 -- up 12 percentage points in the past year and back to levels last seen in the 1960s (see his 7 August dispatch, “What Will Corporate America Do With the Cash?”). There can be little doubt of the enormous strides taken by Corporate America in recovering from the sheer devastation of the post-bubble earnings carnage of 2000-01.

Conventional wisdom has it that such miraculous healing has set the stage for US businesses to step up and deliver on the hiring and capital spending fronts. Yet nothing could be further from the truth. A jobless recovery endures as never before. Private nonfarm payrolls have risen a scant 0.3% over the 33 months of this recovery -- an unprecedented shortfall when compared with the 7.8% average gains over comparable stages of the past six recoveries. While job growth has picked up a bit over the past year, the broad industries that have contributed the most to this acceleration are concentrated in the education and health category as well as in a grouping of business services industries called “administrative and waste services” (which includes temps, janitors, and waste disposal personnel). Meanwhile, total labor input in the private economy -- as approximated by the so-called hours worked index -- is up 2.4% over the year ending August 2004; that’s 50% faster than the 1.6% increase in headcount over that period -- underscoring business’s preference to stretch out work schedules of existing workers rather than to hire new ones. In short, despite a spectacular improvement in business financial positions, there has hardly been a spontaneous regeneration of high-quality job creation.

big snip>

I fully realize it is considered almost sacrilegious these days to challenge the productivity underpinnings of this Brave New Era. There is deep conviction that America’s newfound productivity prowess is here to stay. Interestingly enough, that conviction is about to face its first test in quite some time -- brought about by a likely sharp slowdown of productivity growth in the current quarter. Hours worked in the private economy are tracking a 3.25% annualized increase in 3Q04, pointing to a scant 0.7% rise in productivity should GDP grow at around 4% as most now expect. Maybe, just maybe, the productivity story is finally coming out of the clouds and nearing the end of what has been a glorious eight-year upsurge. To the extent that US businesses understand this possibility, the corporate paradox may be telling us something very different about future prospects for the US economy.

more...

[54anickel]

29. How much to put in stocks? Try zero.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0913/p13s01-wmgn.htm

Equities aren't safe right now, say market heretics, who scoff at the buy-and-hold strategy of traditional advisers.

By Eric Troseth | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor

When Robert Shiller, a Yale economist and bestselling author, told a crowd of finance professors and economics students last spring that only 10 percent of his money was invested in stocks, they gasped.

Managers might suggest anywhere from 50 to 90 percent. But 10 percent? This was heresy.

How about 0 percent?

That's the share that investors should plow into domestic stocks, according to Ben Inker, director of asset allocation for Grantham, Mayo, and Van Otterloo & Co. (GMO), a money-management firm with some $85 billion in assets.

Welcome to a contrarian view of today's equity markets. A small but vocal band of heretics is calling into question not only the profit potential of stocks but also the foundation for conventional wisdom about investing. Even for those who disagree with them, their arguments serve as a reality check for the market.

Are conventional portfolios really as safe as experts say?

"Don't be surprised that the Wall Street brokerage firms spend most of their time telling you that stocks are cheap," warns Mr. Inker. "Wall Street likes the market. It likes trading. Wall Street makes a lot more money off of trading stocks than trading bonds."

more...

[llmart]

36. I agree with you but......

when your company doesn't offer any options that are "safe" such as a guaranteed income fund or money market fund, where do you choose to put your 401K money? I had lots of money in stocks outside my 401K during the Clinton years, but as soon as Bush was appointed I withdrew all that money and paid off my house. I just knew he would screw up the economy. It's the best money move I ever made.

[54anickel]

38. I don't know. I've not heard of a 401K that didn't offer some type of

money market like account. Out of curiosity, which investment firm is running your company's 401K? I've had past experience with Principal, Vanguard and one other who's name escapes at the moment. They all offered a MM type of account.

[llmart]

39. It's Merrill Lynch.

They offer some conservative options, but it looks to me like they're all stocks and bonds.

[54anickel]

30. Speeches ignore impending U.S. debt disaster

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2004/09/12/MNG2S8NOI21.DTL

Washington -- The first of the 77 million-strong Baby Boom generation will begin to retire in just four years. The economic consequences of this fact -- as scary as they are foreseeable -- are all but ignored by President Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry, who discuss just about everything but the biggest fiscal challenge of modern times.

Yet whoever wins the 2004 race will become the first U.S. president to confront what sober-minded experts across the political spectrum describe as an impending "fiscal catastrophe" lying right around the corner.

Astronomical federal debt, coming due as the Baby Boom generation collects Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, is enormous enough to swamp the promises both candidates are making to voters, whether for tax cuts, health care, 40,000 more troops or anything else.

"Chilling" is the word U.S. Comptroller General David Walker uses to describe the budget outlook.

"The long-term budget projections are just horrifying," added Leonard Burman, co-director of tax policy for the Urban Institute. "I've got four children and it really disturbs me. I just think it's irresponsible what we're doing to them."

more...

[54anickel]

31. Undaunted Cowardice

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/bonner/bonner091304.html

snip>

This year, both parties have shown a real genius for propaganda. If you dare to face up to the realities of the U.S. financial system... you are an "economic girlie man." Real men just take it as an article of faith that the "resourcefulness of the American people" will somehow override the laws of economics...

Except for a few cranks and Don Quixotes such as Pete Peterson, Ron Paul and Laurence Kotlikoff, no one in Congress, academia, the administration, the Republican or Democratic parties, nor in the Federal Reserve has the courage to face up to any of America's looming debacles.

Americans get poorer by $2 billion per day. Who even mentions it?

The American government has run up $44 trillion worth of obligations - with no way to pay for them. Who cares?

Americans now absorb as much as 80% of the entire world's savings - not to build a profit-making economy, but merely to maintain current levels of consumption against a backdrop of slipping real incomes. Who warns them?

American workers now face stiff competition from 3 billion foreigners who will work harder, longer and for a fraction of the pay. Unless he tightens his belt, saves furiously, and learns to produce higher quality goods and services... the average American is going to lose ground in the years ahead. Who has the guts to tell him?

U.S. householders owe more money to more people than ever before in history. A financial collapse will not just affect rich speculators... instead, like the hyperinflation in Germany in the early '20s, it will reach down to the bedrock of American householders... and upset it badly.

snip>

"I don't see how anyone with an IQ over 70 can be anything but utterly pessimistic about the long-term outlook for the U.S. economy... " writes Marty Whitman of Third Avenue Funds. "Everybody's - and I mean everybody's - emphasis is on the short-term outlook. Nobody, but nobody is focused on solving real structural problems, organic structural problems that exist."

No. That would take courage, the one thing the nation most needs and most hasn't got.

[MARALE]

32. kick!

[UpInArms]

33. 3:31 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,304.22 -8.85 (-0.09%)
Nasdaq 1,906.95 +12.64 (+0.67%)
S&P 500 1,124.56 +0.64 (+0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.151% -0.029

3:00PM: Equities trend lower again, deterred by conviction on the part of buyers that cannot be described as strong... Advancers do claim a lead over decliners at the NYSE and Nasdaq, but not by a convincing margin... With no real upside catalyst out there, it has been difficult to turn today's advance into a broad-based rally... As long as groups like financial and consumer staple lag behind, it cannot be expected that the market will break out of its range... Media/ entertainment has been one group that has been extremely active today...

Time Warner (TWX 16.52 +0.01) dropped its bid for Metro-Goldwyn- Mayer (MGM 11.55 +0.44) and cleared the way for Sony (SNE 35.97 +0.68) to buy the company for an estimated $2.94 bln - something CNBC reported earlier this afternoon...NYSE Adv/Dec 2002/1239, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1843/1189

2:30PM: Market improves some although has not made a significant move to the upside... Influential groups such as financial, health care, energy, and technology have barely budged although they continue to sport healthy gains... The Nasdaq's failure at its latest resistance area has likely stymied buying interest at this point... As pointed out earlier, news items have not been plentiful and traders have based their decisions largely on sentiment... The belief that the Q3 (Sept) earnings season cannot be any worse than the warnings period has ushered in a good deal of buying interest...NYSE Adv/Dec 2059/1174, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1891/1133

2:05PM : Major indices back off their best levels as the semiconductor group recedes... Traders have taken some profits from the sharp pop, although the sector continues to sport gains in excess of 2.7%... Managed care has been another large winner over the course of the day - in response to Cigna's (CI 68.39 +0.71) reiteration of its FY04 (Dec) EPS outlook of $1.25-1.40... The group has been under pressure as of late and rounded out some of the worst groups of late summer... Traders have thus used Cigna's reaffirmation as a reason to buy on weakness...

Separately, the August Treasury Budget was just released at the top of the hour and came in at -$41.1 bln (consensus of -$40.0 bln)... So far, it's had little effect on the indices... NYSE Adv/Dec 2023/ 1188, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1841/1165

[54anickel]

34. Slip-sliding away per the 3:30 blather

3:30PM: The market continues to deteriorate, quickly approaching its session lows... Investors have reduced exposure following the morning's run - cognizant of a number of market-moving events (see Briefing.com's Economic Calendar) later in the week... Economically-sensitive groups, not surprisingly, have been punished the most severely in the afternoon pullback... Banking, basic material, transportation, and cyclical are all negative for the day... Tech, though, has held on to most of its gains - poised to finish +1% or more for most sub-sectors... NYSE Adv/Dec 2043/1244, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1802/1247

[54anickel]

35. Hmmm, but the DOW has taken a miraculous jump in just the past

few minutes from when I looked. Was down over 12 points, now climbing rapidly in a last ditch effort to get back in the black.

[54anickel]

37. U.S. stocks end higher; Nasdaq back above 1,900

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/040913/4851b2d927e67c43757f5a34dd3ac5bd_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Another surge in technology stocks propelled the Nasdaq past the 1,900 level for the first time in almost two months Monday while blue chips stalled ahead of key economic data set for release later this week.

The Nasdaq Composite Index (NasdaqSC:^IXIC - News) closed up 16.07 points, or 0.9 percent, to 1,910.38 - marking its first close above 1,900 since July 20.

snip> Gotta love this part, it's a bull. Bull! :eyes:

"With a little bit more optimism out there right now I think the market can handle some of these setbacks just as long as they don't become overwhelming," said Paul Mendelsohn chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services.

Other strategists, meanwhile, said investors were beginning to look further to the future.

"We're finally hearing investors point to valuations based on 2005 estimates," Cantor Fitzgerald U.S. market strategist Marc Pado told clients. "That means they've basically written off the results for the remainder of this year and are starting to look past the current inventory problems."

Smith Barney increased its recommended equity allocation to "overweight" and lowered its cash weighting, citing a more constructive view for 2005.

The firm now suggests a portfolio weighting of 60 percent equities (up from 55 percent), 35 percent bonds and 5 percent cash (down from 10 percent), vs. the benchmark weightings of 55 percent equities, 40 percent bonds and 5 percent cash.