U.S. Intelligence Shows Pessimism on Iraq's Future -NYT

[Rose Siding]

WASHINGTON, Sept. 15 - A classified National Intelligence Estimate prepared for President Bush in late July spells out a dark assessment of prospects for Iraq, government officials said Wednesday.

The estimate outlines three possibilities for Iraq through the end of 2005, with the worst case being developments that could lead to civil war, the officials said. The most favorable outcome described is an Iraq whose stability would remain tenuous in political, economic and security terms.

"There's a significant amount of pessimism," said one government official who has read the document, which runs about 50 pages. The officials declined to discuss the key judgments - concise, carefully written statements of intelligence analysts' conclusions - included in the document.

The intelligence estimate, the first on Iraq since October 2002, was prepared by the National Intelligence Council and was approved by the National Foreign Intelligence Board under John E. McLaughlin, the acting director of central intelligence. Such estimates can be requested by the White House or Congress, but this one was initiated by the intelligence council under George J. Tenet, who stepped down as director of central intelligence on July 9, the government officials said...........
As described by the officials, the pessimistic tone of the new estimate stands in contrast to recent statements by Bush administration officials, including comments on Wednesday by Scott McClellan, the White House spokesman, who asserted that progress was being made.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/16/politics/16intel.html?hp

[mike_c]

1. no shit....

Dumbya commissioned a clue.

[acmavm]

2. But he's too stupid and arrogant to understand a word of it. "Things are

getting better."

[legin]

3. There is a report here

by a british think tank which might be relevent:
http://www.riia.org/index.php?id=189&pid=168

[mike_c]

4. the thing that struck me about that report is that from the PNAC...

...perspective, outcome #3 might be the most desirable, i.e. a fragmented Iraq whose meltdown inflames antagonism between Shi'a and Sunni's throughout the Islamic middle east. Chaos. This would both justify a long-term "security need" in the region-- U.S. military-- and weaken the governments of most middle eastern states.

[amandabeech]

6. Some sort of Shia alliance or nation would control a very, very

significant percentage of the oil in the region. Southern Iraq, southeastern Iran, Kuwait and northeastern Saudi Arabia are really some of the richest oil provinces. If the Shia get together, I'm sure that the U.S. would try to exploit the situation to secure oil resources. After all, we could say that we got rid of Saddam, liberated the Shia holy sites (ha!) and provided political power to the Shia over the Sunnis.

[Just Me]

9. Makes one speculate "who" is actually inciting such divisions,...

,...since they best serve the neocons' plans for the region and are consistent with the divide/conquer/control approach utilized by the neocons(even against Americans).

[are_we_united_yet]

5. Perhaps

you should have listened to that 1 million person focus group

[DeepModem Mom]

7. Page-one lead story today -- nt

[bklyncowgirl]

8. George Tenet's parting shot? Leaked during Hurricane Ivan, hmmm?

"The intelligence estimate, the first on Iraq since October 2002, was prepared by the National Intelligence Council and was approved by the National Foreign Intelligence Board under John E. McLaughlin, the acting director of central intelligence. Such estimates can be requested by the White House or Congress, but this one was initiated by the intelligence council under George J. Tenet, who stepped down as director of central intelligence on July 9, the government officials said."

This is devestating to the administration's claims that the Iraq war is going just great.

[MaineDem]

10. One would think these NIE would occur more frequently

October 2002 and then July 2004???

Yeah, I feel safer!

[leftchick]

11. They KNEW it would be FUBAR before the invasion....

<The new estimate revisits issues raised by the intelligence council in less formal assessments in January 2003, the officials said. Those documents remain classified, but one of them warned that the building of democracy in Iraq would be a long, difficult and turbulent prospect that could include internal conflict, a government official said.>

[dArKeR]

12. What would Americans think if someone did this to their neighborhood?

U.S. intelligence officials prepared a report for President Bush (news - web sites) in late July presenting a gloomy outlook for Iraq (news - web sites), saying that at worst the country might descend into civil war, The New York Times said on Thursday. Citing government officials, the newspaper said the classified National Intelligence Estimate outlines three possible outcomes for Iraq through the end of 2005. The worst would be developments that could lead to civil war, and the best would be an Iraq with tenuous stability in political, economic and security terms. In this photo, Iraqi police survey an area destroyed by a blast in the Bataween district in Baghdad on September 16, 2004. (Aladin Abdel Naby/Reuters)

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/040916/photos_ts/mdf698049

[Moderator]

13. kick