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kskiska Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-18-04 09:54 PM
Original message
WP: Democrats Reassess Prospects to Win House
As Kerry's Momentum Lags, Hopes of Regaining Majority of Seats Dim, Analysts Say

Democrats' hopes of regaining the House majority this fall -- never bright at best -- appear increasingly dim, in part because of Sen. John F. Kerry's lackluster campaign performance over the past six weeks, numerous analysts say.

In late July, as upbeat Democrats held their convention in Boston, party leaders said they had capable, well-financed House candidates poised in several states to exploit a nationwide trend that seemed just around the corner. "Democrats can win the House back if this breeze, this movement for a change, continues," said Rep. Robert T. Matsui (Calif.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Since then, however, Republicans conducted a sharp-edged convention in New York, Kerry was slow to respond to attacks on his character and policies, and many of the Democrats' most promising House challengers seemed frozen in place.

When the Massachusetts senator appeared to gain momentum entering and exiting the Boston convention, "the theory was it would all seep down to the House races," said Amy Walter, who tracks House contests for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. "But it hasn't happened." Among top Democrats, she said, "you just don't hear that same level of enthusiasm you did a month ago."

more
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A32029-20...
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grasswire Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-18-04 09:56 PM
Response to Original message
1. you know what to do
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mreh Donating Member (56 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-18-04 10:00 PM
Response to Original message
2. So they think putting this crap in the paper will deter us?
The only ones they are fooling are themselves. (imho)
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Rose Siding Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-18-04 10:00 PM
Response to Original message
3. I need a drink

Doesn't this just frost your cookies:

Two Democratic gains in special elections this year -- in Kentucky and South Dakota -- were offset when lawmakers elected as Democrats from Texas and Louisiana switched to the GOP
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Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-18-04 10:07 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. I don't know how it is elsewhere but.....
.....where I live, Washington State, the voters are likely to elect Democrats to one maybe two Congressional seats currently held by Republicans.
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alfredo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-18-04 10:50 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. Our congressional contests have been pretty good `
here in Ky. We might be able to take back a seat or two.

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baby_bear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-18-04 10:50 PM
Response to Reply #4
8. Yo_Mama, which seats are you thinking of?
Are you thinking that the 8th will be taken over by Dave Ross (that he will beat Reichert) and that Nethercutt's position will revert to the Dems?

Just wondering what you are thinking...

s_m
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Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 12:19 AM
Response to Reply #8
12. I think the 8th will likely go to Dave Ross
Reichert thinks he's got fame for catching Gary Ridgeway but he should have solved the Green River case years earlier. A few more women night be alive today if he did.

I understand there is a pretty strong Democratic candidate in Netehrcutt's district. That is the one I'm less certain about.
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Yupster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-18-04 10:10 PM
Response to Original message
5. Gonna lose about five
here in Texas where I live thanks to a very special bout of redistricting.
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Jane Austin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-18-04 11:19 PM
Response to Reply #5
10. Have you seen any polls in those districts?
I'm dying to know how it's going.
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Nevernose Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 12:52 AM
Response to Reply #5
14. Fuckers.
I get regular updates from my family in East Texas. I feel your pain. Texas is going to hell in a handbasket. Move to Arkansas ro Louisiana or New Mexico while the gettin's good.
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mitchtv Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-18-04 10:28 PM
Response to Original message
6. My district is liberal republican
will likely stay that way. The Dems in California are in complete disaray, or so it seems in my end of the district. Arnold has them reeling.Not a set of balls in the bunch. On the assembly seat however, I see a pickup for Dems.
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IndianaGreen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-18-04 11:01 PM
Response to Original message
9. Well, let's not ignore how the GOP has cheated to insure a victory
Thanks to aggressive GOP-led redistricting there last year, five Democratic lawmakers from Texas are fighting for survival in districts redrawn to favor Republicans. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (Tex.), the plan's chief engineer, told reporters last week that Republicans are ahead in all five of those races, a claim Democrats dispute. "We will gain seats in this election," DeLay said.

Texas is not the only state where GOP redistricting efforts have hurt progressive candidates. And Texas is not the only state in which the GOP has used aggressive tactics in purging voters from the rolls. He who makes the rules, controls the game!
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DU9598 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-18-04 11:47 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. Iowa
We are not likely to knock off any of the four repukes and Leonard Boswell, our only Democrat, is running a crappy campaign and could well get knocked off.
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depakid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 12:45 AM
Response to Original message
13. More drivel from the Washington Post
I've come to the conclusion that there's nothing that paper won't say and no slant too bias for them.
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oldsneakers Donating Member (88 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 02:37 AM
Response to Original message
15. Democrats still leading in national voter preference
They're at least 5 points ahead. This should equate to a 5-10 seat pickup. In actual fact there are only about 25 seats in play and the last I looked we were doing pretty good in more than half of them.
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davsand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 09:14 AM
Response to Original message
16. You will see a lot of split tickets in November.
I really think a lot of people will vote in anger this year. I think what will materialize in the end will be a strong anti-incumbent feeling for several specific races.

I'm seeing it even at a local level where there are both GOP signs and Dem signs in yards. Last week I drove down a major street and saw at least a couple of yards with local GOP signs sitting in the same yards with Kerry Edwards signs. I even saw a yard that had all Dem signs except for ONE local race where it is a weak Dem running...

I think the House may still be in play, but I doubt that anyone can call it just yet.


Laura
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Green Lantern Donating Member (277 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 12:14 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. I have heard from some Greens
that while they are voting for Kerry for Pres, they are not going to support Dems for Congress as a payback for the DP efforts regarding ballot access.
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pinkpops Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 12:29 PM
Response to Original message
18. Kerry needs national adds. The national pools affect
perceptions in swing states. The typical schmuck just reads the headlines, wants to follow the flock.
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pfitz59 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 12:30 PM
Response to Original message
19. "Fire-fighting" 'LIE-beral media'......
trying to dampen Dem spirits! "Give up, don't vote, it's not worth it, why bother, you're gonna lose"...etc, etc. Messages overt, covert, subliminal and otherwise. The COROPORATE MEDIA is banking on low voter turnout. Spread apathy and undermine confidence. 2 months to go and they say "give up the fight". I say "NEVER!"
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stepnw1f Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 12:30 PM
Response to Original message
20. "Lackluster Performance" or Just Plain Media Ignorance
Talk about painting pictures. I love how these folks frame issues or make issues up. Yet Bush doesn't have a performance to run on, but the media is always more than happy to shill for him. Notice how Bush never has to say more than a few sound bites for his campaign?

Then the media comes out to speak for him. Talk about performance! One big act is what I see.
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