Bush clear leader in poll [ Gallup: 55%-42%]

[demoman123]

WASHINGTON — President Bush has surged to a 13-point lead over Sen. John Kerry among likely voters, a new Gallup Poll shows. The 55%-42% match-up is the first statistically significant edge either candidate has held this year.

Among registered voters, Bush is ahead 52%-44%.

The boost Bush received from the Republican convention has increased rather than dissipated, reshaping a race that for months has been nearly tied. Kerry is facing warnings from Democrats that his campaign is seriously off-track.

With 46 days until the election, analysts say the proposed presidential debates offer Kerry his best chance to change the race.

"It doesn't look like the new consultants and strategies of attacks are the right ones" for Kerry, says Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign. Kerry in recent weeks added veterans of the Clinton White House to his team and began criticizing Bush more sharply on Iraq and other issues.

Dowd says Kerry at this point would "have to defy history" to defeat a sitting president.

http://usatoday.printthis.clickability.com/pt/cpt?action=cpt&title=USATODAY.com+-+Bush+clear+leader+in+poll&expire=&urlID=11666886&fb=Y&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.usatoday.com%2Fnews%2Fpoliticselections%2Fnation%2Fpresident%2F2004-09-17-gallup-poll_x.htm%3FPOE%3DNEWISVA&partnerID=1660

[Roland99]

1. That poll is pure BS

and has been posted about many times in the GD forum.

Gallup had Bush up 52-39 at the end of Oct. 2000...think they're accurate?

[demoman123]

16. It may be BS but this is new. The earlier Gallup showed an 11 point lead.

I am just the messenger. I do not want that war criminal GW Bush to be elected, either.

[Voltaire99]

47. Kerry is in DEEP trouble. He changes, or it's Dukakis II.

You don't have to (and shouldn't) take Gallup's word for it.

Instead, consult the pro-Kerry electoral-vote.com. According to the best numbers available Kerry is in dire shape, with only a month and a half to go.

Rather than pretending that the corporate pollsters are lying, we must being talking about what can be done to save this moribund campaign. Krugman, among others, has this week laid out some very nice steps for Kerry, but the candidate seems as doggedly ineffectual as ever.

[JohnnyCougar]

51. Oh, stop it, for crying out loud...

Gallup pols are bullshit. The question is, "Why are you such a sucker for Rove tactics?"

[demoman123]

55. This is just the kind of attitude that can sink Kerry.

The attitude is: "Let's all close our eyes and pretend that everything is okay."

[Swamp Rat]

75. Who specifically is giving you this message and how?

You said, "The attitude is: "Let's all close our eyes and pretend that everything is okay."" - from whom does this attitude come? Who is closing their eyes?

[demoman123]

78. Read the posts.

I can't do everything for you. But I'll narrow it down. Read the posts to which I have replied.

[Swamp Rat]

83. You have not answered my questions.

"I can't do everything for you." - And I can't get blood out of a turnip.

If you come to DU and post sweeping generalizations and one poll, don't be surprised if inquiring minds respond.

You have yet to answer my specific questions:

You said, "The attitude is: "Let's all close our eyes and pretend that everything is okay."" - from whom does this attitude come? Who is closing their eyes?

[demoman123]

84. Read the posts to which I have replied.

There you will find the attitude that information such as the Gallup poll in this thread should not be posted here because it may damage Democratic morale. For example, read #60. There are also others, if you take the trouble to look.

[Swamp Rat]

86. I did and yet you do not answer my simple questions

You have yet to answer my specific questions which concern the Democratic party. I would honestly like to know:

You said, "The attitude is: "Let's all close our eyes and pretend that everything is okay."" - from whom does this attitude come? Who is closing their eyes? You also said, "This is just the kind of attitude that can sink Kerry." Are you speaking about JohnnyCougar's attitude or a general attitude of a certain number of Democrats?

As per your suggestion, I took the trouble to re-read your posts. You posted, "This is just the kind of attitude that can sink Kerry." in post #55. That was BEFORE saracat made her comment in post #60. Who is making negative statements about Democrats?

You said, "There you will find the attitude that information such as the Gallup poll in this thread should not be posted here because it may damage Democratic morale." Are you engaging platitudes here?

In some other thread, we might discuss posting etiquette, about who tells who to read posts, and implications of laziness. Do not expect everyone to read all of your sub-threads and tangential conversations because time does not allow it.

By the way, don't vote for Bush! He's an alien lizard!

[demoman123]

135. Then I think perhaps you might consider...

reading them again. And re-read my posts, too. They are good for you. Eventually, you will find in them the truth you seek. :)

And, BTW: that should be "alien shapeshifting reptilian."

[Swamp Rat]

144. dupe... DU server is actin' crazy!

dupe

[Swamp Rat]

146. Another... DUPE!

error error error

[Swamp Rat]

147. Ah Grasshopper, I know what's good for me...

A permanent move back to Brasil, a hammock under palm trees, and other sundry Earthly Delights.

While listening to Ray Taliaferro's radio show on KGO San Francisco early this morning, a caller mentioned some guy named David Icke (not sure about the last name) and "alien shapeshifting reptilians." Well, he's not the first person to discover this. And most folks who have seen Paul Wolfowitz know that their capacity to shape-shift matches their megalomaniacal audacity and reptilian ego.

[DuaneBidoux]

145. I think refusal to analyze objectively is what he's talking about...

I come on a few times and have said that Kerry needs to learn to be more articulate and succinct in his presentation style (see Edward speak if you want to know to what I refer). I've been blasted in response with posts such that "I'm giving aid and comfort to the enemy." We can only prayer that within the Kerry camp itself there is not a refusal to do such indepth analysis. Just because I'm saying Kerry should dumb-down his message for example doesn't mean I don't support him. Refusal to contemplate reality that doesn't fit your ideology is exactly the kind of shit that got Bush to drag us into Iraq. I've always wanted to believe progressives were in general better than that. Perhaps not on this forum however.

[Swamp Rat]

149. DU MESSAGE BOARD RULES

(My comments in [])

http://www.democraticunderground.com/forums/rules.html

PERSONAL ATTACKS, CIVILITY, AND RESPECT

5th paragraph:

Democratic Underground is a "big tent" message board which welcomes a broad range of progressive opinions. As such, you are likely to disagree strongly with many of the comments you see expressed here. Please do not take these differences of opinion personally. The simple fact that someone disagrees with you does not give you the right to lash out and break the rules of this message board. A thick skin is usually required to participate on this or any message board.

****

SPECIAL GUIDELINES RELATING TO THE 2004 ELECTION

2nd paragraph:

Negative attacks are an unavoidable part of any political campaign, and therefore they are permitted against any Democratic presidential candidate. However, once the Democratic party officially nominates its candidate for president, then the time for fighting is over and the negative attacks against candidates must stop. The administrators of this website do not wish for our message board to be used as a platform to attack and tear down the only progressive on the planet with any hope of defeating George W. Bush. Constructive criticism and even outright disappointment with the candidate may be expressed, but partisan negative attacks will not be welcome. If you wish to contribute to the defeat of the Democratic candidate for president, then you are welcome to use someone else's bandwidth on some other website. As the election season draws closer, we may expand this rule to include Democratic candidates for other political offices.

For more information, please read "DU and the 2004 Democratic Presidential Primary".

[Almost_there]

92. I'm not one to believe polls, but...

I won't every say that polls are the end all be all of anything, but, let's be honest, Gallup builds their entire company on polls, and if they are SO wrong SO frequently, no one would hire them to do polls anymore. If you have a source where Gallup is so off the main stream, so out of the truth, please post it. Don't just say "Gallup had Bush ahead 52-39 in Oct 2000" with no link.

This race is statistically VERY close, the bounce should fade, but, just because you don't LIKE a poll doesn't mean it isn't true. Please keep that in mind. You can't like some polls that are accurate and dislike others and that makes them inaccurate.

Keep up the FIGHT!!!!!!! Its still 47 days away!

~Almost

[leesa]

116. Pssstt...the media and polling corporations are corrupt.

They WILL hire each other to produce the desired result.

[The_Counsel]

120. I Don't Believe Polls Much Either, But...

"I won't every say that polls are the end all be all of anything, but, let's be honest, Gallup builds their entire company on polls, and if they are SO wrong SO frequently, no one would hire them to do polls anymore. If you have a source where Gallup is so off the main stream, so out of the truth, please post it. Don't just say "Gallup had Bush ahead 52-39 in Oct 2000" with no link."

One need only go to Gallup's own website and find their polling history. If memory serves, Gallup did have Gore getting as low as 39% of the electorate the week before the election. It struck me as odd then, as everyone was saying how tight the race was. Turns out Bush didn't have a lead at all, nationally...

One other thing: Gallup is apparently living off of it's own name and past reputation at this point. For years, they were the ONLY polling firm that most people had even heard of. They were even ACCURATE on occasion. As of now, their polls are so out of whack that I can't think of a single reason why anyone in their right mind would put any stock into them. Other than "Gallup says my candidate is ahead," that is...


"This race is statistically VERY close, the bounce should fade, but, just because you don't LIKE a poll doesn't mean it isn't true. Please keep that in mind. You can't like some polls that are accurate and dislike others and that makes them inaccurate."

You know what...? I don't "like" the polls that have Bush ahead by 1 point, but I find it to be a helluva lot more accurate than "Bush by 13..."

[bleedingheart]

91. While I think Kerry isn't losing right now I have to agree

that he has to start going after Bush's jugular in order to survive.

No more nice campaigning...this is war.

[meisje]

111. Thats it, I'm voting for Bush!

I need to be on the winning team! Not

You bunch of girlie posters... stop your crying!

[jumpstart33]

102. He can't keep changing his message. He has good one. Stick to it

and pound it home. To hell with the polls. Tell the truth, shame the devil, and win or lose, give it your best shot!! If this nation wants Bush, they should have him. A more peaceful and fulfilled life for Kerry!

[Snivi Yllom]

109. Gallup is historically a pretty accurate poll

Kerry needs to focus his message now.

[jkshaw]

139. Pollsters are not sampling cell phone users

The votemaster at <http://electoral-vote.com/> mentions this fact today (9/17/04) and also links to a Jimmy Breslin column <http://www.newsday.com/news/local/newyork/columnists/ny-nybres163973220sep16,0,5538561.column> in which Breslin says: "There are almost 169 million cell phones being used in America today....There is no way to poll cell phone users, so it isn't done." He calls the polls nowadays, all of them, a sham.

169 million possible voters is a lot of voters not being included in these polls, and they're mostly young people between the ages of 18 and 25, 40 million between 18 and 29, and young people are leaning toward voting for Kerry-Edwards.

I've wondered for many weeks about cell phone users myself and have written to a couple of blogs wondering whether the pollsters realize they're calling mostly older, perhaps mostly conservative, people. We're certainly among that age group, and we have two cell phones and get our news from the Internet and are Democrats, but we're not exactly in the majority in this state, Utah.

Perhaps it's wishful thinking, but I can see another fiasco like the Truman-Dewey polling in which the pollsters used telephones, unaffordable to the working class at that time, and so unwittingly called the election for the Republican, Dewey.

http://www.dragongoose.com

[Born Free]

80. work harder...

The poll is telling us we must not lose our stride , we must not sit down and take it easy, we must contribute in any way we can. The worse the predictions they make the more we need to work - we are talking about America's future here, in Iraq there are people giving up their lives , the least we can do is stand up for America, open your wallet, give till it hurts, if you can give time to help, then do it - help in any way you can, writing letters to the local papers, talking to friends and neighbors. There is something all of us can do and regardless of how insignificant if ma seem to us, when all the effort is combined it will overwhelm the right wing fanatics. We are fighting for our children, and our grandchildren wee are fighting to save America.

[demoman123]

85. Good post. n/t

[onehandle]

2. Kerry gaining in battlegrounds.

And will win with them.

The Gallup poll is bogus.

[alittlelark]

6. The Galluping Horseman of the Apocalypse

just had to say it eventually...so obvious

[shockingelk]

89. Even if Gallup is noty an outlier (graph) ...

Otherr polls in the same timeframe show Kerry gaining



http://fearofclowns.com/text/net_difference_poll_results

[Judi Lynn]

93. Now that's HELPFUL. Looking good. Thanks a lot. n/t

[Almost_there]

103. Am I reading this wrong?

Perhaps I am completely bass ackwards here, but, every poll has Bush ahead (Kerry in the -, right?), with Newsweek and Democracy Corps showing a trend back to Kerry, Zogby essentially remaining flat, with a 1% Kerry "-", Time, ABC, Gallup, CNN/USA Today/Gallup showing a sharp Bush trend, Fox actually remaining neutral (must be to energize the freepers), and ABC/Wash post to come out soon.

I don't see this as "great news", but, I don't by any means see things as lost. Not by a long shot. We are still a month and a half away! But, if I am misreading this poll, please help!

~Almost

[shockingelk]

138. You're reading it right

I think the thing to notice is how close all the polls were to one another before the DNC convention and how widely they began to vary immediately afterward.

Honestly, I think the FOX poll's "likely voters" definition is more accurate than others - their polls show Kerry doing better among LVs ...

[Lerkfish]

3. thanks for sharing..in other news, Dewey defeats Truman

:)

[demoman123]

19. I am just conveying a published story about a poll. Should I keep silent?

Should we all just not look at results or claims that we don't want to believe? I think that strains rationality.

[delhurgo]

30. That seems to be the modus operandi around here.

If the poll showed the exact opposite numbers these same people would be cheerin, hootin, and hollerin how Bush is toast.

This seems like a pretty big lead to me though. I think its probably more like around 6 points, but who knows, this could be the first poll to show the backlash about the Memogate story.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

35. CNN/Gallup/USA Today have been discussed many times as...

...being nothing more than rightwing shills.

CNN proves their rightwing bias every single day with their television broadcasts.

USA Today is a VERY conservative newspaper.

If you drew a straight line consisting of all of the best known polling outfits, Gallup would occupy the far rightwing position.

IMHO, the only poll that has been consistently close to the mark is the Zogby Poll.

[Almost_there]

104. Question...

Seriously, I don't believe every poll I see, knowing that every one has SOME internal bias, if there was a poll showing Kerry ahead by 25 points, I couldn't possibly embrace it. If 10 polls show one thing, and one shows something totally different, which do we believe?

I have always thought of CNN as relatively impartial, and I've been SCREAMED at by wing nuts as to how LEFT LEANING they are. I see where you claim that they are simple shills for the right. Either they are a bunch of schizophrenics in Atlanta, or, they are somewhat neutral to have the right absolutely view them as a leftist mouthpiece and at the same time to have you bash them as right wing shills. I can't get my news from sources with bias that simply overflows into the reporting, and I think you know what I mean (FoxNews, NewsMax, Drudge) and I know that we have similar things www.evilgopbastards.com as an example) ad other "news" sources, so, which is it? CNN is leaning which way? Is every poll we disagree with corrupt, but, the ones that prove our direction are dead on?

~Almost

[Tommy_Douglas]

131. You have to keep in mind....

That RW wingnuts think everything has a liberal bias unless its Fox news. So that right their gives you an idea of what they think news should be.

Any bitter partisan on both sides will view the media that way.

I'm sure many here merely want a media that's accountable, truth seeking, and asks the questions the public wants answered. And I don't think America really has that anymore if it ever did.

[drdtroit]

37. No one is directing their comments at you

they are simply pointing out the absurdities of these polls.

[demoman123]

49. Oh yes they are. Read the comments. n/t

[JohnnyCougar]

53. If you look at the results

You find that the race is a dead heat. The Gallup poll does not constitute results.

[saracat]

60. Yes. When the polls fed this negativity.

Particularly when the poll is not supported by any of the others! Whey do you think it okay to ecourage people to give up?
That is what happens when people are bobbarded by fake polls.
Some people may get mad and work twice as hard but others have been exhausted by continual fighting since 2000 and may just give up. I hope you don't want to add to any sense of discouragement by these polls.

[demoman123]

62. You are claiming that I am trying to undermine Democratic morale. Not so.

I am only posting a news story from a regular news source about a political poll. If you think the poll is wrong, say why.

[saracat]

74. The poll is Gallup. That is why. Read below!

) Gallup is stunningly incompetent:

-- One week before the 2000 elections Gallup showed Bush leading by 13 points.

-- They also had Dewey beating Truman.

-- It's a wonder anyone takes them seriously as a pollster.

2) There is clearly something wrong with their methodolgy:

-- 14 of the last 16 Gallup polls have been the most pro-Bush of any taken at the same time. The odds of that happening randomly are about 1 in 14,000

-- They have consistently oversampled Republicans in their polls -- despite the fact that self-identified Democrats have been at least equal to self-identified Republicans in the every national election of the last 20 years, Gallup chooses to poll more self-identified Republicans than Democrasts.

-- In fact, in the 2000 election, 39% of the electorate described themselves as Democrats and 35% as Republicans. If you weight Gallup polls to those numbers, Kerry would be leading in most of their surveys.

3) Gallup's likely voter model is has been discredited:

-- The formula by which they determine who is a likely voter is bizzare and complex and always inaccurate.

-- Their last poll showed Bush voters 10% more likely to vote than Kerry voters despite the fact that the eletion-day difference between the parties hasn't been more than 4% since at least 1992.

-- Their likely voter model almost certainly leaves out those who didn't vote in 2000 so they aren't even sampling a representative electorate.

4) Gallup is run by a right-wing Republican.

-- Gallup is no longer run by the legendary Frank Gallup. They now are run by a right-wing CEO who has given money this year to support the right wing agenda. This bias is reflected in the polling.

5) Every other poll has shown movement toward Kerry.

-- Bush is fading because of the wrong choices he made in Iraq and the wrong direction he has taken the economy. No flawed poll can change that.

-- The American people will decide on election day whether they want to continue the current direction. They will hold Bush accountable and they will further discredit Gallup.

[demoman123]

77. This is much better than your previous post.

You are attacking the poll instead of me, and giving reasons. I knew you could do it! :)

[Almost_there]

105. Excellent Post!!!

n/t

[patcox2]

119. Even the worst poll can be accurate about a trend.

First thing they teach you in survey research class, no poll can be relied upon for an truly reliable number (i.e., exactly what percentage of the people support Bush and what percentage support Kerry). But even the most flawed tracking poll can give reliable information about trends so long as the flaws are consistent. So long as Gallup uses the same wording and methodology in each poll, the information about a trend down for Kerry and a trend up for Bush must be taken seriously.

It is truly odd that all the other polls show a reversal in the bounce and a trend back to Kerry. Thats strange, again in light of the fact that trend information is generally reliable from even the worst of polls. Could mean Gallup is indeed the worst pollster out there.

My survey research professor was an executive at Harris, which I am glad to see recently released a poll showing very good news for Kerry.

[Name removed]

94. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Lerkfish]

101. my comment was directed at Gallup, not you.

Gallup was bought and is funded by pro-bush interests. They consistently rate Bush 5-7 points higher than other polls. I consider them blatantly partisan and their methodology is suspect if not downright fraudulent.

I also think using them to declare trouble for Kerry is like unto the famous headline: Dewey defeats Truman...in other words: premature AND wrong.

[The_Counsel]

123. No.

We're saying that Gallup not only isn't the polling "be all that ends all," it's gone completely batty. Just about every other poll shows this thing as a dead heat, but Gallup says it's all over? Who's right? Gallup or the majority of other reputable pollsters? My guess would be the majority -- especially given Gallup's shitty track record of late...

[Borgnine]

4. Bull-fuckety-shit

When every other poll shows the race tied and knowing Gallup's wild fluctuations in 2000, I don't even know why they're considered to be credible anymore.

[alittlelark]

8. But, but....

the Bu*hista's love 'em (and pay good $$$ for their blow job)

[demoman123]

18. You can cuss me AND the poll all you want, but these are the results.

Other polls may get different results. But it is important to look at all the information that is out there and not to confuse what is true with what we want to be true.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

29. The "results" of what exactly? Why do you consider this to be...

...a valid poll? Who did they poll, and what geographic area of the country was polled?

CNN/Gallup/USA Today is currently the most right-leaning poll in operation today. It is little better than rightwing propaganda presented as an honest poll.

IMHO, maybe you're the one that's gotten confused.

[demoman123]

50. What results do you think?

Gallup has been polling for a long time, and deserves to be considered among other polls. Where did I say it was "valid"? Nowhere. Your remarks suggest that you to want others to censor the news they present around here. But this is contrary to the spirit of this forum.

[RoyGBiv]

54. Why are you taking this so personally?

In the "spirit of this forum" people also tend to respond to news stories they think are skewed by stating such. It has nothing to do with you. It was the story to which the comments were originally directed. I've posted a number of LBN threads that have received a similar hue and cry. It's not *me* the respondents were yelling at.

But, because you've taken comments about the poll personally, you make it seem as though you are trying to defend the poll.

[demoman123]

57. Because I am being told, in effect, that it is wrong to post this poll.

Read the comments. Not just the headlines. And I am not defending my ego or the poll, but rather the principle of looking at the evidence, even if it runs counter to what you want to believe.

[RoyGBiv]

64. Admittedly...

One or two of the original respondents seemed to indicate the person thought you were re-posting an old poll. But -- and I honestly mean no disrespect, nor am I flinging any accusations -- your response to that seemed a bit too defensive, which in my view is what has generated some of the rest of the responses, such as mine for example. I think when one does post "bad news" one should be prepared for the different kinds of responses it will receive. Some don't want to believe it. Others may have genuine reasons why it should not be believed. We're going through some weird stuff right now with all the apparent bias in mainstream media. We're frustrated and anxious and are on the verge of burnout. Nov. 3 can't get here fast enough for me.

Anyway, I "get it." I do not think stories such as this should not be posted. Neither do I think the responses to them that indicate Gallup's history of inaccuracy this distance in time from an election should be taken as "ignoring the bad news" or some such thing. Most of all, I think polls of all kinds should be treated as sort of a novelty that may or may not indicate the way things are leaning and not the end-all-be-all of where we are at. They change, daily, and as such mean basically nothing except for their effect on people's perceptions and morale.

[hansolsen]

96. Right, it is wrong to post this poll and yell fire. If we want to know

what the hell Gallup reports, the only thing we're looking for is a good laugh.

[demoman123]

143. Thanks for your input.

It's good to continue this discussion.

[JohnnyCougar]

56. And as a scientist

it's also prudent to disregard outliers, such as the GALLUP POLLS!!!!! Remember, this is not reality, it's politics!!!

[hansolsen]

95. These are not "results" as you claim. Gallup is propaganda. N/T

[yardwork]

5. The media shills will be all over this tomorrow

They'll ignore every other poll and crow about how Bush has it in the bag. I hope it makes a lot of Republicans complacent about their candidate. Maybe they'll skip voting this year.

Meanwhile, the Democrats will be stampeding to the polls.

[edbermac]

11. Stampede is right!...after the last election, we're out for blood!

:kick:

[POed_Ex_Repub]

12. Actually, I think the idea is the opposite

They want to disenfranchize Kerry voters by making them think Bush is way ahead...

Pretty sick how one poll is trumped up while the others are ignored... If there were an outlier poll that had Kerry in the lead you'd be hearing the crickets chirping.

[JDPriestly]

7. Where are all the Bush voters?

We sure don't have many in southern California. I have never seen such enthusiasm among Democrats or so many Democrats. The Republicans seem to have their legs between their tails.

Today, we tabled at a farmer's market in L.A. Some Republicans set up a table next to us. We never sold so much stuff. It was amazing. I gave a brochure to a Republican. He took it and told me (one of very few) that he was going to vote Republican. I said I respect everyone's right to have their own opinions. He thanked me and said it is a shame that politics has become so hostile. To make a long story short, he ended up telling me a number of reasons for voting against Bush. Amazing -- even the Republicans don't like or trust Bush. I realize that California is strongly Democratic, but I have not seen this in past elections. There is something strange about polls that show Bush ahead.

[tedzbear]

44. My 86 year old mom is voting for Kerry and she used to be Republican.

She and most of her church friends HATE Bush and HATE Cheney even more.

My mother's switch to Kerry is a vastly more accurate political compass than the dubious Gallop poll. Now if it turns out my Repug older brother votes for Kerry (and he might, being a Vietnam vet) then I'll know Kerry's got it in the bag.

[JackDragna]

68. I wish I could agree.

There's a lot of sentiment here of "How could Bush be ahead? People where I live don't like him." Unfortunately, most people here don't tend to associate with conservatives. I wish the polls were incorrect, but considering how numb most Americans are to Bush's wars and lies, it's very easy for me to accept that he's ahead. We make grandiose statements about "how could Bush be ahead? He did X, Y, and Z!" without realizing most Americans don't care. The same Americans who thought the war was great in the first place can be cajoled and scared into supporting the man again.

[Almost_there]

106. How does San Diego County lean?

I'm more curious than anything, I know LA is a democratic stronghold, but, I am curious about San Diego county. Its a lot larger than San Fran area, and I wonder about the number of retirees etc that live there. Just curious if you can help me out.

~Almost

[bluestateguy]

9. All right that's it

I am REALLY losing my patience with the doom and gloom posts here. I am going to ask the Administrators for an "Only positive Kerry" rule here. That is, absolutley NO posts that put the Kerry campaign in a bad light, no news of bad polls and no posts that even mention anything critical. Sorry, but I've heard it all now, and have no need to hear it anymore.

Only positive Kerry spoken here.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

32. And I'm losing my patience with those DU posters who seem utterly...

...incapable of recognizing propaganda, even if it exists in a polling form.

CNN, Gallup, and USA Today are rightwing shills...any polling they do is extremely suspect.

[Name removed]

52. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[JohnnyCougar]

58. Knock it off...

There is good reason to believe this pol is fake.

[demoman123]

59. Knock it off? What does that mean? Exactly what?

And exactly what reasons do you have for believing this poll is a fake?

[JohnnyCougar]

65. History and extensive knowledge in statistics

that's my reasons...

[demoman123]

66. That says nothing.

It's just a meaningless appeal to your own authority. Give some real grounds or, to borrow an expression from you, "knock it off."

[JohnnyCougar]

67. Nope.

Your post is just a meaningless appeal to Rove.

Look, If you read my posts throughout this thread, you would understand.

[JackDragna]

69. He makes a good claim.

There seems to be a tendency for people to accuse any poll where Bush is ahead of using faulty methodology. Instead of pillorying people who put these polls up, why don't you point out why the poll is in error?

[JohnnyCougar]

72. I already did...

When one poll is so off the mark from the other 19 polls released, than it is BS. Remember, 1 out of 20 polls can be off by more than 3% on each side.

[JackDragna]

73. Just because a poll isn't representative of a general sample..

..does not make it flawed. It may be an "outlier", as you refer to it, but the same methodology could be used in each poll and one could still get widely disparate results.

[Name removed]

97. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[0007]

126. The trolls and shills are out in droves on this one

CNN showed a poll this morning where over 150,000 voted.

Who do you believe CBS or Bush's Guard record?

Over 60% believe CBS and just 40% believed junior.

CNN took the poll down, and now these trolls are coming up with this bogus. Gallup poll.

[sampsonblk]

10. Nonsense

These polls have been consistently off. They sucked in 2000 also.

[alfredo]

21. gallup usually sides with bush in its polling.

in 2000, Zogby got it right.

CNN uses Gallup.

[featherman]

13. Sampling error most likely - definitely an outlier

Scary, though, how USA Today writes it up as infallible pronouncement of the Almighty.

[goforit]

14. Remember Venezuela?????......This is a PR repeat!!!!

[PartyPooper]

15. Since Kerry is doomed, I'm packing my bags and moving overseas.

Flame away.

:tinfoilhat:

[dolstein]

17. These kinds of headlines are lethal

It doesn't matter whether the poll is accurate or not. People are going to perceive that Kerry is struggling. It's hard to win people over when the you campaign appears to be in a freefall.

[demgrrrll]

25. I disagree. I think it has become something akin to the boy who cried

wolf. I laughed when I saw this thread. Predictable. All the other polls show Kerry/Bush in a dead heat.

[Zorra]

41. Good point. The poll is only the vehicle for the propaganda. I suggest

that someone investigate the methods used in conducting this poll - I'd bet that the methods for conducting this poll were deliberately skewed to favor Bu$h for the sole purpose of putting out a propaganda headline.

[Kimber Scott]

20. Why is this poll so different than all the other polls?

I don't get it. I think somebody needs to shove a "poll" up these people's ass. Might straighten them out a bit, eh?

[COSFlyer]

26. What is

What is gallup's background? Pub inclined, accurate? Rove controlled?

I just think it needs to be dropped as an abberation.

READ THE SIG!

[Teaser]

27. Several Reasons

1)Bad Sampling.

For some reason, R's seem overweighted in GAllup's last few polls. No idea why this happened. Maybe their phone lists need updating.

2) Crappy likely voter model.

Do you know where your polling place is? IF you're not sure, or you think it might be have moved and don't know the new location, you're probably gonna get bumped off their likely voter rolls. It's a major part of their formula.

[MnFats]

22. Polls now subject to wild fluctuations so as to render them useless.

the ONLY message is that each of us must work our asses off to get Kerry elected or we face four more years of ... --- hell, they'll be four years like we have never imagined! Bush, unshackled from any accountability, will involve us in wars right and left, do away with our civil rights, destroy unions and the environment....hell after four years you won't even recognize this country....


Poll in the St. Paul Pioneer Press today shows Bush up by 9 percent.
One three days ago by the Mpls. Star Tribune had Kerry ahead, if i recall, by about 8.

[Teaser]

23. Let's see, 6 recent polls have it a tie...

and Gallup gives Bush a 13 point lead.

What crap. I almost want this poll to maintain a constant Bush lead till the end, just so it's reputation crumbles on election day.

[Carolab]

24. Disagree

It should spark MORE voter turnout, not LESS

[scarface2004]

28. gallup

must be sucking gop cock!!!

[farmboxer]

31. Harris Poll Has Kerry Ahead

I think Kerry is much further ahead than the polls show. I believe it is a way to prepare Americans for a new coup, like America's first coup back in the year 2000! The Right Wing Republican corporate mainstread news media is for Bush. Remember 2000! Never forget! I will vote if I have to crawl to the polls! I just can't stand anymore of Bush! It's strange, but most people, with whom I converse, do not like Bush, and I mean a lot of Republicans! So, I smell a RAT!

Where is James Carville?

[drdtroit]

33. They forgot to say that this is a poll

of registered Repukes. The polls are out of play because everything is so fucking corrupted and they are simply being used as a tool to disude voters. Eff these criminals!

[dennis4868]

34. The Rassmussen poll....

gave Bush his biggest lead in a long time...only 4-5 points though which is alot for that poll....

[Teaser]

38. Rosh Hashana

nt

[dennis4868]

39. huh?

:shrug:

[JohnnyCougar]

61. I'm not surprised...

Any poll is likely to fluccuate by a few points every time it's done. In two days, it could be a 4% Kerry lead, and I wouldn't be excited. Polls have both a magin of error and a confidence interval. The margin of error on these presidential polls is usually around 3% and the confidence interval is 95%. That means that anything within 3 points is correct 95% of the time. That means every 19 polls you read, 1 is bullshit beyond the 3% mark. This one is obviously the bullshit one becouse it doesn't match up with the other 19. Got it?

[Newsjock]

36. Take your complaints local

USA Today is published by Gannett, the nation's largest publisher of local newspapers. There are dozens of Gannett outlets, quite possibly in a town near you. The profits from that local newspaper go directly to Gannett.

Here is a list of Gannett's local newspapers. Your local paper may be somewhat more enlightened than USA Today, but (as a former Gannettoid, I know this) their local editors are scared absolutely sh*tless of complaints from local readers. If circulation falls, those editors are out of a job.

You can call USA Today headquarters all you want, but you'll achieve nothing. On the other hand, if you call your local newspaper and make yourself heard as a local reader, you can help effect change.

[Emillereid]

40. Does anyone know which poll has the best record for accuracy -- over

time and for different kinds of elections. I mean how in the hell can Harris and Zogby and Gallup etc. be so different and yet still be in the polling business year after year. Certainly they are not all equally accurate or reliable.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

42. The best way to check the various polling groups is to uncover...

...where each gets their funding.

[Emillereid]

158. That's not what I'm looking for -- I want to know if any of the

various polling companies have a better historical record for accuracy than the others. With the spread we're seeing they can't all be right!

[Erika]

43. For God's Sake, Stud UP!

The Harris and the Pew are far more prestigious than this poll. And this poll is before the news that the CIA thinks Iraq is doomed. Get a grip.

[demoman123]

70. Do what? Am I supposed to do something with my stud?

Attack the poll. That's what you disagree with.

[frylock]

45. what's the moe on gallup; +/- 10?

If you watched Olbermann tonight, he believes that "memogate" is working in Kerry's favor, and I am inclined to agree, as the bogus inflated RNC bounce has been all but eliminated.

[JohnnyCougar]

63. the MOE is so high

that my keyboard won't last long enough to type the number.

[loveable liberal]

46. i guess depending on how bush* rigs the voting machines

will determine his margine of victory. Personally I dont think he'll win. what we need is either the white house, the senate or the house. any one of those 3 and bush will be screwed.

[JCMach1]

48. Flashback 2000- Bush 52 Gore 39

a CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll also released Friday. That poll gives Bush a 52 percent-39 percent edge over Gore. More important, both polls show the same snapshot of the current state of the presidential campaign: a solid advantage for Bush.

http://www.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/10/27/cnntime.poll/index.html


Gallup is whacked...

[nolabels]

71. The polls said the Hugo was also losing in Venezuela

Polls skewed by persons needing a certain type of result.

[Swamp Rat]

76. Yeah, Carmona and his buddy Reich

:hi:

[BootinUp]

88. Yep

Has Gallup ever written an explanation for their lousy results the last time? If an organization doesn't learn from their mistakes they are bound to repeat them.

[hansolsen]

98. Yah, they blame it all on the late breaking news that Shrub had a DWI.

That is bullshit, IMO. The polls were biased and they needed a handy excuse to rationalize that the vote came out different.

[Name removed]

79. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Judi Lynn]

81. Here are two polls I checked.

Zogby:

Bush-Kerry Race Tied As RNC Bounce Fades, New IBD Survey Shows
A new IBD/TIPP poll put President Bush and Sen. John Kerry in a dead heat, suggesting Bush's post-convention bounce is quickly disappearing.

In IBD/TIPP's first poll of likely voters, conducted Sept. 7-12, both men garnered 47% in a two-man race and 46% in a three-way race. In the latter scenario, independent Ralph Nader would take just 3% of the vote.

Among registered voters, Kerry holds a two-point edge over Bush, with or without Nader, the poll found.

For polls taken after Labor Day, pollsters consider "likely voters" a more accurate indicator of actual election outcomes.
(snip/...)

http://www.zogby.com/Soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=9392

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Harris:

The Harris Poll® #59, August 19, 2004

Bush and Kerry Neck and Neck Says Harris Poll
The presidential election is still very close. Neither President George W. Bush nor Senator John Kerry is campaigning hard, but neither has found a way to pull ahead. In the latest Harris Poll, the two candidates are tied 47 to 47 percent among likely voters. The only Harris Poll to find either candidate to have a clear lead was in June, when a poll taken shortly after President Ronald Reagan’s death reported a ten-point Bush lead. We believed (and reported) this to be a blip caused by the good feeling surrounding the memories of the popular Republican president and President Bush’s success in associating himself with the public’s good feelings about him.

Another indicator of how close the presidential race is now (which does not necessarily mean it will be close in November) is that President Bush’s latest job ratings (48% positive, 51% negative) are worse than the equivalent ratings of recent presidents who were re-elected for a second term (Clinton, Reagan, Nixon) but better than those of his father President George H.W. Bush and President Carter, who both failed to win re-election, at this time in their campaigns for re-election.

However, in August 1976, President Gerald Ford’s ratings (48% positive, 45% negative) were slightly better than President Bush’s current ratings, and he went on to lose a very close election to Jimmy Carter that November.

This latest nationwide survey by Harris Interactive® was conducted by telephone between August 10 and 15, 2004 among 1,012 adults.
(snip/...)

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/index.asp?PID=489

[PATRICK]

82. We need a definitive track record of campaign polls

I saw one person in a Buzzflash commentary do a list of polls from 2000, all with the same discrepancies, the usual suspects and how so-called reputable polls missed the margin of error consistently in favor of Bush- so much so as to call in question their validity except as a self-fulfilling push for Bush. In the closing days of the campaign, the Gore 'surge" was noted I believe mainly by Reuters and ABC. The others showed the usual reluctance to say it was even close, that Gore even had a chance.

Then the voters they had tried to discourage, had not counted in their samplings, turned out in agonizing sufficiency to turn back the fraud just enough- but not enough to enable Gore to overcome further fraud.

And guess what? The furor over exit polls(surprisingly accurate and at odds with the now forgotten media polls AND with suspicious results in suspicious states) was the belligerent pre-emption by the GOP so that even more pollsters would be cowed into favoring the GOP view of these "scientific" measures.

After watching that blankety blank Gallup expert defend himself on CNN with the usual "scientific" and historical record in their favor I think it is more to the point not to use the polls but to weight them in a context of their abuse and error, in samplings, in preferred(even ideological)interpretations and in method.

Zogby notwithstanding- This finger to the wind of public opinion only succeeds as intuitive guesswork derived from soft, pushed and woefully disengaged opinions of people who choose to answer wheedling interviewers. We are measuring competing intuitions derived from the people and much too impressed by the numbers. Focus groups largely are candidates burying themselves in the truly amorphous mass of uninformed meandering voters, a self-castration process for would-be leaders, but more real than comforting percentages and bogus statistics.

We are all tickled pink I am sure when some Conservative arm of disinformation leans toward reality and flatters our perception of reality temporarily. That is a pathetic sign of success and to fall into the trap of granting them rueful legitimacy is to fundamentally give points away to enemies of democracy and truth.

The other main problem is an emotional one. In search of ecstasy, of the moment of rout, of the unbearable lightness of liberating the truth, of having the perfect champion acting the perfect way to defeat a criminal clown, we take the downers laughably seriously. WE should know better than to fall into the traps most people vaguely feel and rarely hear true facts about. We are still driven like mood sheep hither and thither by the push of Bush when it is us acting on quality, the wishes of the vast majority, the facts, the future.

There is no accountability, no court or entity "up there" anymore to hold our hands, to investigate unfairness, push polls, GOP fraud. Reality is in the grass roots. The top of our society is riddled and headed illegitimately. A fraud.

[Dem2theMax]

87. I've said it before, I'll say it again,

The ONLY poll that counts is the one that is taken on November 2, 2004.

Everything up till then is just noise. The only reason I come in to these poll threads is to say what I said above. Now repeat after me....'The only poll that counts'

Reading polls won't help Kerry or America. Ignoring them and working for Kerry WILL. (Watching The Daily Show helps a lot too. ;) )

Choices here are:

1. Moan and groan over every poll that comes out that has * ahead.

2. Realize that polls are just that. Polls.

3. The election is what counts.

4. KERRY IS GOING TO WIN.

I choose 2, 3 and most especially, 4! :) :) :)


(If this posts more than once, the board has gone bonkers. Not complaining. Just don't want anyone to think I'm posting while sleeping. Well, I am, but what the heck.) :)

[malatesta1137]

90. this is GREAT news!!

all the proof we need that Bush is actually behind AND desperate. To have his corrupt pollsters put him ahead in such INSANE manner is just another sign that Rove is trying to sell American fools more lies.

5 days before the 2000 elections, this same Nazi poll had Bush ahead 13 points. Gore won the popular vote.

I also remember how desperate the New York Post was at the time and released a poll showing Hillary and Rick Lazio 'dead even'. Hillary won by some 13 points.

Only a freeper or a MORON (sorry, I know, they are the same thing) would believe that a nation with 8 million unemployed and fighting an unnecessary war would give a president who turned the greatest surplus in our history into the greatest deficit A 13 POINT LEAD!

[Raster]

99. This story is bullshit. The polls referenced are bullshit. New info...

...disproves the Gallup poll.

Let this one die folks, and be wary of anyone posting the "woe is John Kerry" bullshit. That's part of the tactic.

[NYsocialworker]

100. I recall that Gallup's

final poll numbers for 2000 election were

Bush - 48%
Gore - 46%

They each had 48%

[GoddessOfGuinness]

107. Among which likely voters?

A couple of weeks ago, he had an 11 point lead among "self-described investors". You know what that means...he had an 11 point lead in a group of republicans.

The press twists the statistics of these "polls" to deliver whatever message they feel will sell more papers.

[sofa king]

108. Keep fudging, pollsters--please!

I've been thinking about this for awhile, now. I'm convinced that the polls are being manipulated to show that it's a close race.

There's plenty of possible motivations for pollsters to do this, mainly so that they can keep polling on a daily basis. There's plenty of reasons for the press to juggle the "likely voter" figures to make it look close, mainly so that they sell more ads.

But there is a silver lining to this, which is that polls which clearly show the President ahead will necessarily lead to conservative voter complacency.

Think for a moment about what kind of idiot you have to be to support the President. You have to believe that hiding out from Vietnam is more honorable than serving. You have to believe that creating false pretenses for starting a war is honorable and justifiable. You have to believe that attacking Iraq somehow harms al Qaeda. You have to believe that a President who has grown the government while shifting the tax burden on the middle class is "fiscally conservative." You have to believe that relaxing air and water cleanliness somehow benefits your children. You have to value ignorance over expertise.

This kind of dumbass is exactly the kind of person who will believe that the President has this election wrapped up. This kind of dumbass is exactly the kind of person who will think it's not necessary to vote. Meanwhile, not a day goes by without another myriad of angry voters being motivated to do something about this runaway Republican government.

Thanks to Fox News and the other charlatan news people out there, I think that "likely voters" for the President are becoming all that less likely to vote at all.

[Doosh]

110. Bush- 52% Gore 39%

that's all you need to know

all the other polls show the races tightening, gallup continues to march to the beat of there own drummer.

[DS1]

112. Kerry was getting slaughtered in Iowa during the primaries - until

people actually got to the voting booths, of course.

[Khaotic]

133. ... from Davenport, Iowa

You have it exactly right.

I can't speak for everyone here in Iowa, but from what I noticed people got sick of hearing Howard and Dick bickering and throwing mud around.

Kerry and Edwards were two of the only people that made sense and appealed to everyone.

Zogby was the only poll that had it right in the days before the caucus here.

I went down to the Kerry headquarters here in Davenport at the time and everyone knew what kind of hardwork they had done and the response that was coming in.

Kerry came here with Ted Kennedy and people responded.

While a lot of the other candidates focused on Des Moines and Cedar Rapids Kerry and Edwards didn't underestimate anywhere.

Now they're together and I believe they're covering a lot of ground, but the corporate media just isn't paying attention. I wonder why?

Can you say NewsSpeak?

[Bush2Barsoom]

113. Polls don't account for CELL PHONES!

Personally I have not had a land-line since 2000. I exclusively use my cell phone.

So no telephone-based polling organization is going to call me! How many other younger voters, who are Dems or lean Dem, are like me? Given that there are 168 million cell phones in the U.S., probably quite a few:

Jimmy Breslin on the subject:

>>Anybody who believes these national political polls are giving you facts is a gullible fool.

Any editors of newspapers or television news shows who use poll results as a story are beyond gullible. On behalf of the public they profess to serve, they are indolent salesmen of falsehoods.

This is because these political polls are done by telephone. Land-line telephones, as your house phone is called.

The telephone polls do not include cellular phones. There are almost 169 million cell phones being used in America today - 168,900,019 as of Sept. 15, according to the cell phone institute in Washington.

There is no way to poll cell phone users, so it isn't done.

Not one cell phone user has received a call on their cell phone asking them how they plan to vote as of today.<<

Full article, with quotes from John Zogby on his distrust of phone polling:
http://www.newsday.com/news/local/newyork/columnists/ny-nybres163973220sep16,0,5538561.column

[aneerkoinos]

114. wrong horse

Caveat: my opinions are opinion of an outside European observer.

DLC is inherently a defeatist crowd and by accepting their race horse you accepted defeat even before the race began. Yes, it's starting to look like the game is allready over unless some miracle happens and the "hulk" reemerges.

Kerry might make OK prime minister, but in US you don't choose prime minister but elect dictator for four years. Kerry has respectable parliamentary experience, but in your system that is handicap, not strength. It is no coinsidence that Presidents come from Governors who have shown leadership skills, not Senators who have excelled in gerrymandering, compromise making and other necessary parliamentary skills.

Simply said, Kerry can't convince the stupid sheaple, the majority of voters who look for strong leader who can communicate simple truths, not politicos with finesse.

I bet my ass Dean would have good lead in the polls. People would respect his conviction and vision, even those who vehemently disagree with him. Nobody, and I mean nobody, respects Kerry who has no conviction nor vision. People don't vote for a candidate they can't respect and offers no real alternative.

[Judi Lynn]

118. "Caveat: my opinions are opinion of an outside European observer."

Your "outside European observer" needs to learn more about Americans apart from rightwingnuts. There's a world of difference.

I can speak a little halting English myself,if half to.

[aneerkoinos]

128. What's you point?

Not one of the best posts by JudiLyn, IMHO. I'm sure you could attempt to educate me, both linguistically and factually, if you wanted, and respond with some actual content. I'm allways gratefull for learning experiences, given that the tone is not too condencending which raises negative feelings which make learning much more difficult.

Maybe my "halting English" didn't make it clear enough that I'm indeed an Euro and the opinions I present are my own. But I suppose you don't understand Finnish language, so maybe you can forgive if my post is not written in perfect American.

[NoBorders]

137. Your post and english were fine

Even if the content a little pessimistic. It is true that Senators don't make the best presidential candidates. But this race is far from over, and many polls show the race even.

[leesa]

115. Pure crap. No one can stand Bush. He can't possibly be above 32% in any

true vote. That is his voting base and it can't possibly have gotten any larger. The media is engaging in fraud.

[Almost_there]

125. I don't doubt that we'll win...

Leesa, the only part of your statement that I'm having difficulty with is your 32% in any true vote. I know a number of people who will be voting for the shrub, and I won't discount any poll just because I don't like its numbers.

Right now, virtually no poll has Kerry ahead by much, and several have Bush leading by more than the MOE. I just don't want to see people here blindsided in a few weeks if we don't act, act hard, fast, and continuously until November 3rd. Seriously, I think that people have gotten confused by Iraq, Afghanistan, Terra-ists, and who they all are. The repubs have done a great job of muddying the water for the everyday person out there, and we can't just assume that "well, since we hate Bush, and so many have rallied against bush, therefore, 68% must hate him too." I just don't see it that way. I am very wary of these polls, specifically Gallup who leans right, but, others show Kerry still slightly trailing, though within in the MOE.

I agree that numbers are manipulated, but, as far as out and out fraud, I just don't see it. No poll in existance supports your claim of 32% or even 42% base for bushy.

~Almost

[miss_kitty]

117. the only poll that counts

is the one in which we will enter to cast our votes on 2 November, 2004

screw Dowd. he's a neocon, and a totally asshat, his neocon leaning not withstanding

[Khaotic]

121. No one polls the "unlikely" voters

I think everyone is underestimating how many people will be voting for the first time in their lives. Even people that are older than 35 years old and have never voted will be coming out to the polls.

Every poll I've seen is of "likely" voters and registered voters.

I was at my local democratic headquarters and the word among a lot of young people are they're going to vote.

If you're not going to college or don't pay attention to the local music scene then you're probably totally unaware that those people are being stimulated.

The way the demonstrators were treated in NYC was nothing short of horrible. People that weren't even demonstrating were thrown in "little Gitmo."

This crap is getting out and programs such as "Democracy Now" are picking up viewers.

It's not mainstream, but since when does the 18-25 year old group even watch the mainstream.

Kids are just beginning to wake up and should know that if we stay in Iraq with a "with us or against us" policy toward the world then there WILL be a draft. If the country wants us out then they have the numbers to kick us out. If we have to unleash huge amounts of bombs in order to survive then we'll eventually border our efforts on genicide.

The people that are waking up are not being heard, but they will be heard at the polls.

Zogby should do a first time voter poll that focuses on those that have never voted regardless of age. I'm betting Kerry would lead by huge numbers.

[0007]

122. Is this a joke or what?

Karl Rove is getting worried and can't manipulate fast enough, 'eh?

[dave123williams]

124. Let them think they're ahead...

Maybe they'll get complacent, and not bother to vote.

[trueblew]

127. Highly Suspect

Saw the BIG Gallup headline last night on The Drudge Fudge...now, its completely off the front page. Hmmmmm...typical for the hypocrite.

[0007]

129. Something doesn't add up!

Who do you believe more on President Bush's National Guard records?

CBS News
57%
119659 votes

President Bush
43%
90280 votes

Total: 209939 votes

....and this poll has been freeped since 7:00 cst this morning, and they still can't over come the numbers.

[0007]

130. What is USA news & Gallup smoking?

cnn.com/lou

Which presidential candidate do you believe would best fulfill his campaign promises for the next four years?

President Bush
10%
1086 votes

Sen. John Kerry
85%
9259 votes

Ralph Nader
5%
553 votes

Total: 10898 votes

[phasev]

132. Rove strategy

Make Bush seem ahead in the polls right before the elections then use the power of diebold voting machines to lock in the votes. That way nobody will ever question the elections since he seemed ahead during the polls.

[MallRat]

134. This is just plain silly.

Has ANYTHING happened in this race in the past two weeks that would warrant EITHER CANDIDATE having a 13-point lead?

Silly. I could do a more scientific poll from my kitchen table.

-MR

[Almost_there]

136. NY Times / CBS News poll due today...

I think that we'll get some confirmation one way or the other when the NY Times / CBS News poll comes out today. If it has Bush ahead by 10 or more, I would at least accept the Gallup poll as being on the far edge of an MOE, pushed that way intentionally. If it comes back as it should at about 4 or 5% Bush AT BEST, then I will totally accept the Gallup poll as totally out there, be it from a simple fluke (HA!) or from a push within the poll.

Either way, I think polls are simply a measuring stick, not too much more than that. If the poll today says Bush is up by 18% and is going to take 47 out of 50 states, NO WAY I AM GIVING UP! It's only a poll! Until the last ballot is cast and counted, let's not give up this fight, ok? Keep attending rally's, keep the signs out on your lawn, talk to your friends, man (person?) the phones, and get the vote out!! Nothing is settled until November.

~Almost

[struggle4progress]

140. Bush Post-Convention Lead Slips to Tie With Kerry (Update1)

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush is in a statistical tie in three of four national polls with Democratic nominee John Kerry, who trailed by as much as 11 percentage points after the Republican National Convention. Bush leads in the fourth survey, a USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll, by 13 points.

Bush had 47 percent to Kerry's 46 percent in a Sept. 11-14 Pew Research Center poll. A Sept. 9-13 Harris Interactive poll showed Kerry with 48 percent to 47 percent for Bush. An Investor's Business Daily poll conducted Sept. 7-12 found them even with 46 percent support each. And Gallup gave Bush a lead of 55 percent to 42 percent in its survey from Sept. 13-15.

``The bounce is over,'' John Zogby, president of polling company Zogby International, said in an interview. ``This is not an 11 point race. It never was an 11 point race. I doubt it will ever be an 11-point race.''

Kerry eroded Bush's gains after the Republican National Convention by focusing on the lack of funds for job training and health-care initiatives because of the cost of the ``wrong war'' Bush is fighting in Iraq. The Republican convention, which focused on national security, gave Bush a lead of between six percentage points and 11 points in Time and Newsweek magazine polls after it ended on Sept. 2. <snip>

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aKqs4qwWUpGU&refer=us


3 polls show a White House race in flux
Rick Klein/The Boston Globe

BLAIN, Minnesota Three national polls indicate that the race for the White House is in flux after President George W. Bush's post-convention bounce.

Two of the polls, by the Pew Research Center and by Harris Interactive, show the race as a dead heat. The third, by the Gallup Organization, gives Bush a substantial lead over his challenger, Senator John Kerry.

The Pew poll, conducted from Sept. 11 to 14, and the Harris poll, taken from Sept. 9 to 13, show the race well within the margin of sampling error among registered voters and among likely voters. All this suggests that the presidential race is running even again, despite the double-digit lead Bush opened up after the Republican National Convention ended on Sept. 2. <snip>

http://www.iht.com/articles/539334.html

New Opinion Polls at Odds Over White House Race
VOA News
17 Sep 2004, 15:29 UTC

Two new opinion surveys in the United States paint very different pictures of the presidential race. <snip>

http://www.voanews.com/article.cfm?objectID=4E632DF1-3884-458E-AC0D85CC9B161C5E&title=New%20Opinion%20Polls%20at%20Odds%20Over%20White%20House%20Race&catOID=45C9C78F-88AD-11D4-A57200A0CC5EE46C&categoryname=USA

Polls give confusing picture in U.S. race
Fri 17 September, 2004 20:45

<snip> Democratic pollster Tom Kiley said: "There was a legitimate question as to whether the post-convention bounce for Bush was in fact a bounce, a temporary bounce or a longer-term trend. That question has been answered conclusively this week. And the structure of this race (is) what it had been for months. It is a very closely contested contest over what the voters want." <snip>

http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsPackageArticle.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=585865§ion=news

[UCLA Dem]

141. Hi everyone this is my first post

I've followed DU form some time now, but I've been in college, so now that I'm free I have time to post my thoughts as well as read yours.

I decided to post today because as I was reading this thread, I noticed that some of you seemed really worried about today's Gallup poll. I don't know if this has already been mentioned, but I'm going to say it anyway.

I have a background in psychology and political psych as well. In some of the recent polls (i.e., the ones right after the RNC) there have been some major problems with sampling errors. The pollsters had not been polling voters in samples that reflect the make up of the population as a whole (i.e., if there are just a few more Republicans in the sample then actually reflected in the electorate it can throw off the whole thing).

Also, the other polls released yesterday all seemed to agree that the race is tight or Kerry is leading. When one poll is way off the others, it usually means something was wrong with their sampling method.

In my opinion, Gallup just made themselves look like fools with this poll and I won't be surprised in the next couple days if other pollsters come out and denounce it as flawed. I will be very curious to see what their methods were, as I said I think they're very questionable.

I hope this makes some of you feel better.

[0007]

142. Welcome home! Your post makes good sense to me.

Hope to see you around.

[Nancy Waterman]

148. This poll is bogus

40% GOP. 33% Dems polled.

[Almost_there]

150. CBS / NY Times poll out... 50 - 41

I am so not starting a new thread with this information, someone else please take this link, start a new discussion, and YOU get flamed. I am not willing to make my first post a CBS News / NY Times poll with not so great news. I've read through the whole poll, and there is nothing about independents, so, who knows, but, they are thorough in the questions, if a bit slanted.

~Almost

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/09/17/opinion/polls/main644205.shtml

Never mind, I've already posted this as a News link in Breaking News.

[demoman123]

152. Oh really?

So are we going to wake up now and take this problem--i.e., the problem that Kerry is behind Bush--seriously, instead of staying in denial?

I hope so. The first step towards solving a problem is admitting that there is one.

[Almost_there]

153. I know there is a problem, the issue is solving it.

Well, I made my first "News" post, so, no need to repost what I already asked. I just don't want people to bury their heads in the sand. Let's get motivated!!!!

~Almost

[demoman123]

154. Good on you. n/t

[GaryL]

156. Read it throughly.

"36 percent say they are Republican, 32 percent Democrats. The percentage that identifies themselves as Democrats in this poll is lower than it has been in CBS News Polls conducted earlier in the year".

And 20% of "liberals" cross over for B*? Bull.

[demoman123]

161. "Bull"? Why "Bull"?

In a time of national crisis, people cling to an authority figure. Bush and the RNC have pumped the crisis, and many people, including some Democrats, see him as an authority figure, rather than as the moron and war criminal that he is.

So some of them would indeed cross over.

[stepnw1f]

151. When I see Bush, I see a Victim of Self-Destruction

Like a child who snapped at a young age and drowned his anger toward his parents in alcohol and drugs. And now he wishes to drown us all. Misery does love company. Just look at a drunks company he keeps. Fooling those around him that he or she is liked.

Freepers show this trait of deceit and denial. Stemming of course from their parents' lack of love and interest in them. If they tell a truth, it may all come undone for them.

Voting for Bush is self-abuse. Note the self-destructive pattern in Bush and his kind? Selfishness is like a blackhole that sucks into itself till there is nothing left. When I look at him, I see a virus that aims to kill us all!

Like alcohol, polls are a distraction. Petrified of the inevitable: themselves.

[cyr330]

155. Check this out

Check out The Emerging Democratic Majority blog and see the article--"donkey rising." There's a link to it on salon.com. It gives a full explanation about why Gallup's polls are so fucked. I feel much better now.

[Carolab]

157. Yeah, and check this out as well

The real problem here is that Gallup is spreading a false impression of this race. Through its 1992 partnership with two international media outlets (CNN and USA Today), Gallup is telling voters and other media by using badly-sampled polls that the GOP and its candidates are more popular than they really are. Given that Gallup’s CEO is a GOP donor, this should not be a surprise. But it does require us to remind the media, like Susan Page of USA Today, who wrote the lead story on the poll in the morning paper, and other members of the media who cite this poll today, that it is based on a faulty sample composition of 40% GOP and 33% Democratic.

http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/002806.html

WE ARE BEING FREEPED ON POLLS, PEOPLE! Still, GET OUT THERE AND FIGHT AS IF IT WERE ALL TRUE! GOTV, GOTV, GOTV!!!

[EndElectoral]

159. Forget Gallup...biased

[sal]

160. Why do they need people to think * is winning?

Because he is gonna blow the some damned place up before the debates, that's why.

[greenohio]

162. Not good but..

Though I think this poll is bloated to favor *, there definitely is a theme across the polls. I haven't seen to many lately showing Kerry in the lead. Even Pew showed Bush leading, albeit, by a very very small margin.

Kerry can ignore these polls and everything is fine.
or
Kerry can adjust course.

These polls should motivate the team to work hard. Let team shrub get lazy and over-confident.

In the end, only one poll counts.

[JuniperLea]

163. wake up people!!

don't you see that this is exactly the kind of divisiveness these polls are rigged to achieve? don't fall for it! the polls are bs! look around you!

[flaminbats]

164. This poll reveals two important facts..

Fact one..most swing voters currently support the incumbents.

Fact two..John Kerry cannot win swing voters on better ideas alone.

This brings us to one basic rule that Republicans have understood for years, in elections like this you can only drive decided voters away from the incumbent not win them over! Kerry will not be able to boost his political support, but by attacking Bush on the right issues he can bring the Republicans down to our level of support.

Kerry must hammer away on Bush's plan to completely abolish Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. Bush's cuts for all forms of education, and even cuts for private school vouchers! Repeat this over and over, and never stop dammit... After all Democrats don't control Congress, so who is going to stop them? Kerry must hammer away at the draft, on the danger of more national security screw ups like 9/11, the growing danger of an attack from North Korea because of Bush, Dick Cheney selling nuclear weapons to North Korea, finally on the coming danger of our democratic government becoming insolvent and America being sold by Republicans to the lowest international bidders.

Bush leads Kerry among service people by 58% to 38%. Kerry must repeat the message that their pay will be cut under Bush, and their service time will be extended indefinitely unless they elect a new commander in chief! Kerry must bang away that Bush plans to eventually murder most of the disabled, bring in illegal immigrants to replace American workers, and arrest anyone who drives, votes, or even speaks politically without a Federally approved ID card. Kerry should also repeat the fact that Bush lost the majority of votes in 2000, and that Bush opposes allowing most American voters elect the President. Instead Bush only favors allowing a small electoral elite of 270 snobs pick our leaders.