Post-Convention Polls Mixed On Kerry Bounce - Reuters

[WillyT]

<snip>

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New polls gave a mixed picture on whether Democratic presidential nominee Sen. John Kerry got a "bounce" from the party's convention, and a CNN-USA Today Gallup poll on Sunday even showed the Democratic ticket trailing the Republicans' among likely voters.

But a Newsweek poll released on Saturday said Kerry gained a four-point boost in the polls from the Democratic National Convention held last week in Boston.

Kerry had been hoping for a measurable surge in public approval, known as a bounce, which sometimes has given nominees a double-digit boost in the polls following their four days in the spotlight at the convention. Democrats this year have said the closely divided electorate and relatively small number of undecided voters made a big bounce unlikely.

The CNN-USA Today poll of about 1,000 respondents conducted on Friday and on Saturday showed President Bush garnering 50 percent to 47 percent for Kerry among likely voters. Bush trailed Kerry among likely voters earlier in July, 47 percent to 49 percent.

<snip>

Link: http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=5837612

Anybody know what exactly defines the 'bounce'? Is it first polls? Is it one day after? One week after? Do you have to look at several weeks worth of data from before the convention to after the convention???

What are the polling and analysis protocols here?

:shrug:

[Ediacara]

1. Is it just me

Or does Gallup have a history of having polls that are all over the place (5-10% jumps in either direction on a weekly basis), and just plain poor...?

[sallyseven]

2. It a cnn poll. Worthless.

[Mr.Green93]

3. watch for good polls the first of the week

[WillyT]

4. That's What I Was Thinking !!!

Which poll, good or bad, is the poll that determines the bounce?

:shrug::crazy::shrug:

[SPURGEMAN23]

5. RNC trying to influence this weeks polling

The way I see it, is that they want to create an impression that Kerry did not do as well as he did (he did well) and is NOT likely to win. Best way to do that is to flash a poll that has Bush ahead, which in their minds will influence people that will be polled this week. They try to do something EVERY day to decieve and manipulate. They did NOT want to have the only polls over the weekend to show a bounce and outright lead for Kerry, they wanted to counter that perception.

They will do what it takes; count on it.

[magnolia]

11. Exactly!

Before the convention they kept predicting a 15 pt. bounce because that's what Clinton got. But they failed to mention that Clinton was in the 30's before his convention.

[Beetwasher]

6. The CNN/Gallup Poll is NOT An Abberation

It is a deliberate and calculated attempt at propoganda and disinformation, at least IMO...

[qanda]

7. How about the lack of coverage?

This is the least covered convention ever! I'm talking about the networks that everyone usually watches. The news that got most of the coverage was "Shove it!"

[customerserviceguy]

10. It may have been the least covered by the networks

but there are at least three 24/7 news channels covering it, and yes, I suppose I'm counting Fox. Cable and satellite TV are in a large proportion of homes, and if people wanted to see convention coverage, they could have found it. Of course, access to a hundred or so channels means that they could avoid it, too. The Republican convention will be equally ignored by the Big Three networks.

As for the "shove it" news, we really can't blame that on Bush. But I'm sure he'll have his pre-convention gaffe, too.

[struggle4progress]

8. Bay State Poll Results: Kerry Seen as More Compassionate, Honest than Bush

Romney Approval Rating Mixed

NORTH ANDOVER, Mass. (BUSINESS WIRE)
Aug. 1, 2004
Overview of Bay State Poll:

-- John Kerry was seen as much more compassionate (61% to 27%), somewhat more honest (48% to 40%), and as a slightly stronger leader (52% to 47%) than President Bush

-- 42% of those polled saw the war in Iraq the most important issue in the upcoming presidential race, however 30% said jobs and the economy would be most important to them personally in casting their vote

Perspectives on the DNC

-- About half (53%) of those polled felt the costs and inconveniences of having the convention outweighed the benefits. Only about a third (25%) felt the benefits outweighed the costs.

-- Only 29% of those polled changed their work/travel plans due to the convention

-- 41% of those polled paid more attention to this year's convention than they normally do to such events

These findings come from the Bay State Poll, a quarterly survey of Massachusetts's residents, conducted by the Center for Public Opinion Research at Merrimack College. Six hundred and one (601) randomly selected state residents over the age of eighteen were interviewed by telephone between July 18th and 28th, 2004. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.1%. Detailed results and methodological information are available at www.merrimack.edu/polling.
<snip>

http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20040801005006&newsLang=en

[agincourt]

9. They heard about the terrorists,

coming across the mexican border, and said "Oh shit, better give dim son 50%, or we'll get a Chernobyl."

[Merlin]

12. Why there will be no BOUNCE this year.

This is a very different presidential election year. Usually the campaign does not even begin until after the first convention. The first convention defines the first public awareness of the candidates.

This year, the campaign has been front and center for a long time already. Most people have already thought through their choices. The number of undecideds is slim.

If we pick up a couple of points from the undecideds, that could be huge.

I still believe the polls do not reflect the reluctance of Bush supporters, and the likelihood that many will stay at home.