Mason/Dixon poll: Presidential Race in NC considered a dead heat

[King of New Orleans]

http://www.wral.com/news/3530033/detail.html


Full results to be released tomorrow. Apparently George Bush leads by 3 points (within the margin of error.

[calico1]

1. I wonder how accurate the Mason Dixon polling is?

A 3pt difference is good. It disproves the poll that showed him 15 pts ahead. Its interesting they mentioned the "triangle" as being the most Democratic area. Is this where Duke Univ. is located? My little sister works there and I thought she referred to the area where she lives as the "triangle."

[King of New Orleans]

3. Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill

is what is referred to as the triangle and it is the most Democratic part of NC.

[calico1]

4. Ok, thanks. That's what I thought.

[Digit]

15. Raleigh is more Repuke

Chapel Hill and Durham are more Democratic.
Asheville also leans Democratic.

[Literate Tar Heel]

23. surprisingly, Buncombe County (where Asheville is)

went to Bush by 9 points in 2000, even more than the 7 points he won Wake County (Raleigh) by ... Chapel Hill and Durham (Orange and Durham counties) are heavily Democratic (went to Gore by 26 and 27 points), as are the lightly populated counties in the northeast of the state and the counties in the southeast with high Native American populations ... the largest urban population, Mecklenburg County (Charlotte), went to Bush by 3 points (about 7500 votes) but I'd be surprised if he wins there this time

[qanda]

2. Bush lost 12 points in two days

Wow! That's an amazing trick... Like, the Congressman on Crossfire said today, keep believing those polls and we'll get back to you on November 2.

[DeaconBlues]

5. I'm gettin' dizzy

trying to keep up with these polls. One poll says Bush has a double digit lead and another is within the margin of error. Of course, the only one they mention on the news is the one with the Bush lead...

Polls ain't worth shit.

[King of New Orleans]

7. Polls are worth shit, but not the end all be all

they just have to be look at critically. There were some very odd flaws to the Gallup Poll in NC (odd likely voter adjustment, odd assumption of turnout).

[Lex]

13. CNN/Gallup had shitty, inaccurate poll.

They had never polled in the state before.
They polled ONLY over the weekend--notoriously inaccurate results follow.

Mason-Dixon is a long-time state pollster and this poll in far more in-line with the past 3 months of data coming out of this state.

[Triana]

6. mwahahahaaa!

Awesome!

:)

[GainesT1958]

8. This poll last had Dub ahead by 7 points, as I recall..

So...four points inside of two months is pretty good!:D

As I said...North Carolina officially became a "battleground state" on July 6. Won't be long before it turns into a "leans Kerry" state...and NEXT...well..we all turn BLUE!:7

:kick:

B-)

[King of New Orleans]

9. but the margin dropped to 1 point

if Edwards was added to the ticket. So, they essentially pre-polled what kind of bounce Kerry could get from adding Edwards and the post-announcement poll essential confirms that (both being within margin of error)

[bushwakker]

10. Ya think Drudge will "Red Light" this one?

doubt it.

[mmonk]

11. That's more accurate

The other poll showing a bush lead widening as soon as Kerry picked Edwards was ludicrous on its face.

[Lex]

12. This poll is far more reliable than CNN/Gallup & is line w/ last 3 months.

That CNN/Gallup poll showing Bush far ahead in NC was crap.

Why?

Mason-Dixon is a long-time pollster in NC.

CNN/Gallup had NEVER done a statewide only poll in NC.
CNN/Gallup did a WEEKEND ONLY poll, which is notoriously inaccurate.

Mason-Dixon's latest statewide poll in in-line with the trend over the last three months.

[osaMABUSh]

14. Nice quote in this article - extrapolation to the national scene

"He won North Carolina by 13 percentage points in 2000. If North Carolina is that close, say three, four, five percentage points, that's an 8 percent gain by the Democrats. If that's replicated across the country, then Kerry wins and Kerry wins pretty well," he said.

[PATRICK]

16. Judging polls

If you really get internal polling and real truth from campaign pros it will be more realistic. If.

But it still leaves one with a complex judgment prone to rationalization, pessimism, optimism or vision limits. In fact the bigger the picture the better, even more than bigger samples.

Polls are mushy opinion barometers. Translating that into the process of how people come to decide to vote is dependent on some events and the firm factors. The firm factors such as "I want Carter out!" or "Clinton has done a good job!" are much stronger than polls will show. Bush has earned strong negative factors that will cause many people to vote against him who supported him before- or at least not to vote for him. He has picked up no significant votes anywhere else and no enthusiasm. he has no winning base, just a cozy life raft of the deluded(and that is not being insulting. To be a Bush voter means having to swallow and spit out outrageous untruths and onerous stupidities.)

Those deceived by the power perks of an incumbent President- legendary among deferential pols who believe their own myths- can neglect the simple situation. That the Democrats, outnumbering the GOP are united, enthused with a great ticket that has not even hit its peak yet. That the GOP is a horror show where the divisions are widening out of fear and scandal. That the only things going for the incumbent despite the uselessly rosy commercials are fear, bald lies and cheating- and unfortunately even most of their own KNOW it.

Kerry is running a campaign for president. The uncharismatic(to put it kindly)inarticulate, anti-President is running Die Gotterdammerung. We are witnessing an absurdity kept afloat by Bush's deferential media support and Dems pulling the punches probably in deference to that.

ALL the signs point to a blowout where the main curiosity is to see which red states finally participate, which are stolen. Our main worry is the unknown, not whored up conventional wisdom about this or that factor used to keep Bush viable. The unknown is really the choice of cheating and lying that they will make, the crises they have pimped for just such an occasion. That is the only reason the reasonable conclusion cannot be stated and why the herd ambling to the Kerry waterhole has not broken into a stampede.

[GaryL]

17. Agreed.

What I found most astounding was that these idiots could even dream of floating a trial balloon about postponing the election. They must be getting absolutely desperate. The neo winger in my office tried to explain this away as not something Rove and Co. knew about which I countered by saying if they had no idea this moronic notion was being pondered, then the wheels are REALLY coming off the cart.

[Lex]

18. It was THEIR OWN guy who suggested it.

DeForest B. Soaries Jr. was appointed by the Bush Admin to the U.S. Election Assistance Commission.

He is the guy who wanted to know what it would take to stop the election.

He directed the inquiry to Tom Ridge, Bush's Homeland Security appointee.

AND BUSH DIDN'T KNOW ABOUT ANY OF THIS?

Sheesh. It's his own people asking about it!

[Media_Lies_Daily]

19. I bet Soaries was playing the role given to him by the NeoCons...

...when he directed that question to BOTH Ridge and Ashcroft.

[Lex]

20. Yeah, and isn't it cute how they act like

they have no idea where the issue came from?

[Lex]

21. "Full results to be released tomorrow."

Hope to see those full numbers sometime today!

[Lex]

22. CNN shows the Mason-Dixon numbers & says NC is in play!

Hahahaha!

Their own poll---they didn't even bring their own stupid, wrong poll up in the discussion!

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

24. The payoff quote...

North Carolina State University Political Science professor Andy Taylor said the lack of Democratic bump is good news for the president, but there is bad news, too.

"He won North Carolina by 13 percentage points in 2000. If North Carolina is that close, say three, four, five percentage points, that's an 8 percent gain by the Democrats. If that's replicated across the country, then Kerry wins and Kerry wins pretty well," he said.

Kerry doesn't have to win in North Carolina -- if he can do well enough to drain Bush's effort from the Battleground States, the game is over.

[Literate Tar Heel]

25. something annoying about that quote though

he says "He won North Carolina by 13 percentage points in 2000. If North Carolina is that close, say three, four, five percentage points, that's an 8 percent gain by the Democrats"

well, the poll shows a 3 point lead ... why does he say "three, four, five" and then "an 8 percent gain" (13 minus 5)?? ... why not "two, three, four" and then "a 10 percent gain" (13 minus 3)?