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struggle4progress Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 08:31 PM
Original message
Almost half voters say Blair should go
<snip>
Blair's public ratings have plummeted since the Iraq war, and growing numbers of Labour MPs are openly wondering whether he has become an electoral liability.
A YouGov poll for The Sunday Times found 46 percent of those surveyed said Blair should quit before the next election, expected in about a year's time.
Another 22 percent want him to go soon after an election, while just 20 percent say he should stay, according to the poll.
Asked whether they trust Blair, 61 percent said "no" and 36 percent "yes."
<snip>
http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsPackageArticle.jhtml?type=...
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Jacobin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 08:35 PM
Response to Original message
1. Good
Anyone allied with SmirkCo's world conquest agenda needs to get the boot.
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goforit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 08:38 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Here Here!!!.............Hasta la Vista .....baby!!!!
LOL!!!
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AP Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 08:53 PM
Response to Original message
3. So, um, he'd win an election? Less than half voters say Kerry shouldn't be
president, which is why he's going to be the next president.

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Spazito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 09:11 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. I would say that this is very telling...
Asked whether they trust Blair, 61 percent said "no" and 36 percent "yes."

Blair is "dead man walking" imo. His party knows they are out of the money unless they turf him early enough before the next election.
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0007 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 09:16 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. When is the next election?
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Spazito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 09:22 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. Good question, unlike the US election system..
Edited on Sat May-15-04 09:26 PM by Spazito
the Prime Minister "drops the writ" which calls for the election and he can do that anytime within a 5 year period, most do not go the full 5 years unless they are in deep trouble. I will check and see when Blair was re-elected, that will tell us when the 5 year period is up.

Edited to add: Blair was re-elected in 2001 so the latest he can call an election for is 2006, so I suspect it will be sometime in later 2005.
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saracat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-16-04 04:36 AM
Response to Reply #7
11. I read that
The election will be this summer.Probably June.
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struggle4progress Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 09:23 PM
Response to Reply #3
8. Not the way I read the article:

"46 percent of those surveyed said Blair should quit before the next election (and) another 22 percent want him to go soon after an election" sounds like 46 + 22 = 68% are saying they've grown tired of Tony.
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AP Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 11:40 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. Perhaps this was the most incriminating stat the paper could come up with.
Maybe the asked people straight out if they'd vote for Blair if the election were today and a majority said yes.
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struggle4progress Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-16-04 11:21 AM
Response to Reply #9
13. Could be. Gotta link? eom
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Blasphemer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-16-04 12:11 PM
Response to Reply #3
17. dupe
Edited on Sun May-16-04 12:14 PM by Blasphemer
nt
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depakid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 09:20 PM
Response to Original message
6. Had he given BushCo the cold shoulder
Edited on Sat May-15-04 09:21 PM by depakote_kid
he'd be celebrated as a hero now. Instead, he went along with them and now he'll be the goat- possibly even throwing Britain back under Tory rule... which is not a bad outcome at all for the multi-nationals and the Republicans here in the states. They'll be laughing all the way to the bank.

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vajraroshana Donating Member (762 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 11:50 PM
Response to Original message
10. I have email buddies in the UK
I think the poll is skewed. It's probably like 70% or more want him out.

There's a lot of anger there, and it's been strong and sustained against Blair-Bush Co.
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Iceburg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-16-04 05:33 AM
Response to Original message
12. Unfortunately in a FPTP parliamentary system those numbers
Edited on Sun May-16-04 05:35 AM by Iceburg
are not good enough to ensure defeat of Blair. Remember in the UK the electorate votes only on local candidates -- not directly for the leader. The leader of the party that obtains the greatest number of seats becomes the prime minister. In this First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) type of election system it is not uncommon to win the majority of the seats without winning the majority of the votes. To illustrate let us examine the distribution of votes in one consistuency where a total of 52,000 votes are cast.

Candidate A (Labour): 22,000 votes 42% of popular vote
Candidate B (Tory) : 17,000 votes 33% of popular vote
Candidate C (Lib Dems): 13,000 votes 25% of popular vote

This type of distribution is VERY common in the UK (and Canadian) parliamentary systems. The last Canadian election (2000) only 40% of total votes cast were "liberal" votes, yet the Liberals won a clear majority by taking 57% of the available seats in parliament (172 out of 301)

http://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/results.html

In closing, I would say (with great disappointment) Tony Blair's numbers look like he is headed for either another majority government (albeit weak) or a minority goverment (most number of seats but less than 50% of total seats available)
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Spazito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-16-04 11:28 AM
Response to Reply #12
14. At the moment the Labour party is behind in the polls...
and, in Parliamentary systems, it is often the practice to hold off dropping the writ in hopes of bumping up support if it is less than the opposition. Blair has until May of 2006 to call an election and he has two choices, call it soon before the #'s drop further or hold off till later in hopes that something will turn around the #'s. I think he is hooped because his party will drop him in order to turn the #s around.
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phoebe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-16-04 11:47 AM
Response to Original message
15. even if Blair is voted out, don't for one second think that he will
be out of the loop as far as influence. We all know that these folks are handed prestigious behind-the-scenes posts with some influential company, bank, government think tank or the like. It will be interesting to see who Blair affiliates himself with after the noise of the elections dies down. We all know the saying "actions speak louder than words"..
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Spazito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-16-04 12:00 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. My bet will be the Carlyle Group, which will be ironic...
as he will then be working side by side with the man he defeated, John Major.
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