STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday June 10

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday June 10, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 9, 2010

Dow... 9,899.25 -40.73 (-0.41%)
Nasdaq... 2,158.85 -11.72 (-0.54%)
S&P 500... 1,055.69 -6.31 (-0.59%)
Gold future... 1,234 +4.10 (+0.33%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.20 +0.02 (+0.50%)
30-Year Bond 4.13 +0.02 (+0.41%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
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Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
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Handy Links - Government Issues:
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Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:30 Initial Claims 06/05
Briefing.com 450K
Consensus 450K
Prior 453K

08:30 Continuing Claims 05/29
Briefing.com 4600K
Consensus 4600K
Prior 4666K

08:30 Trade Balance Apr
Briefing.com -$39.5B
Consensus -$41.3B
Prior -$40.4B

14:00 Treasury Budget May
Briefing.com $142.0B
Consensus $142.0B
Prior $189.6B

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[ozymandius]

3. Ahead of the Bell: Monthly Trade

WASHINGTON – The U.S. trade deficit is expected to widen slightly in April as a rebound in exports of aircraft will be offset by higher oil imports. Economists are concerned that all the turmoil in Europe will cut into U.S. exports in coming months, weakening economic growth in the United States.

Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect that the trade deficit widened slightly to $41 billion in April, up 1.5 percent from March. The Commerce Department will release the report at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday.

The deficit in March rose 2.5 percent to $40.4 billion, the highest level in 15 months, as rising oil prices pushed crude oil imports to the highest level since the fall of 2008. The big jump in oil imports had offset another strong gain in U.S. exports in March.

American sales are also threatened by the fact that the euro, the common currency of 16 European nations, has fallen in value against the dollar as investors, worried about possible defaults in countries such as Greece, have fled to the safety of dollar-denominated investments.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100610/ap_on_bi_ge/us_monthly_trade_ahead_of_the_bell

[ozymandius]

5. Ahead of the Bell: Jobless claims

WASHINGTON – The number of people filing new claims for jobless benefits likely dipped last week for the third week in a row.

Wall Street economists expect claims will fall by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 448,000, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters. The Labor Department will issue the report at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday.

That would be the third-straight drop in claims, which are closely watched because they are considered a gauge of the pace of layoffs.

The decline in claims has been agonizingly slow, and has added to concerns that weak hiring could slow the recovery. Many economists believe sustained job gains won't take place until claims fall below 425,000.

After falling steadily in the second half of last year, initial claims have been stuck at about the 450,000 level since the beginning of the year.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100610/ap_on_bi_ge/us_jobless_claims_ahead_of_the_bell

[Dr.Phool]

33. New claims "fell" to 456,000?

Something's wrong here.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37612338/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/

Total benefits rolls fell by 255,000. No mention that they ran out of benefits. Claims they found work.

[Statistical]

40. Total claims is kinda worthless stat.

New claims is an indication of how rapidly companies are laying off workers.

[TalkingDog]

49. But they did find work.

Just not the paying kind. The work they are doing now mostly consists of looking for a job and calculating the variables of a shrinking money supply and a steady state debt load.

[ozymandius]

2. Oil hovers above $74 as US crude supplies drop

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered above $74 a barrel Thursday in Asia after falling U.S. crude inventories suggested demand is improving.

Crude supplies fell more than expected last week, dropping by 1.8 million barrels, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said Wednesday. Analysts had expected an increase of 1.3 million barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

In other Nymex trading in July contracts, heating oil rose 0.42 cent to $2.0138 a gallon and gasoline gained 0.19 cent to $2.0416 a gallon. Natural gas was up 2.7 cents at $4.704 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[DemReadingDU]

4. The toon today, the 4th guy

could be labeled Lobbyists
:evilgrin:

[ozymandius]

6. Good one.

Customizable, even.

[tclambert]

10. There are so many to kick, he's likely to lose a shoe.

[DemReadingDU]

12. or both shoes!

[ozymandius]

11. "Don't make me break my foot off..."

Those are some easy targets there.

[DemReadingDU]

14. good one!

[Loge23]

26. He'll have to kick the idea around a little

Which foot to use?
How hard?
What angle?
Is an ass kicking appropriate?

"Ah, forget it. The American people want to look forward, not backwards."

[DemReadingDU]

29. Too much thinking

it's easier to make no decision

[Dr.Phool]

34. It's complicated.

If you saw John Stewart the other night, you'd understand.

[DemReadingDU]

38. have a link?

or which day? I could search the comedy channel

[Dr.Phool]

42. Tuesday. here's the link.

GD-Jonestown was having a hissy fit over it yesterday. It starts about 3:40. complications start at about 7:00 min. in.


http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-episodes/tue-june-8-2010-christopher-hitchens

[DemReadingDU]

46. AssQuest 2010

Yeh, these are complicated issues, internationally complicated!

Jon Stewart can figure this out, good show!

[nc4bo]

27. What a dumb statement.

That was my first thought when Pres. Obama said it.

Toon is on point.

Mr. President should have AND could have hit the ground running on Inaug. Day but he chose not to. Instead he chose to surround himself with insiders and scoundrels. Free passes for all.


No change. No hope.

[DemReadingDU]

28. Indecision

Obama hasn't kicked anyone's ass yet

[ozone_man]

53. You just don't understand 3D chess.

He's six moves ahead of you, on another plane entirely. :)

It will all be much clearer in six years, just like NAFTA was after Clinton was out of office. Of course some things like the repeal of Glass-Steagall are still becoming clear 10 years after Clinton. Waiting for those 600 trillion in derivatives to implode.

[DemReadingDU]

57. Ah, another dimension

that's when we cross over into The Twilight Zone :eyes:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzlG28B-R8Y

[tclambert]

7. BP down below $30 per share now. A month and a half ago, it was $60

The takeover/acquisition crowd have to be salivating at that. I wouldn't be surprised to hear Warren Buffett buys into BP.

They may wait, though, expecting the price to fall further.

[ozymandius]

9. Wise to wait.

Hurricane season has not sent its first tempest yet.

[Demeter]

13. The Hand-Wringing Over BP Contrasts Nicely With the Non-Hand_Wringing Over the Gulf

It's disgusting.

[Po_d Mainiac]

21. +1,000

[Tansy_Gold]

35. Ditto n/t

[Statistical]

41. BP was below $30 yesterday. BP - plc (ADR) Pre-market: 32.11 +2.91 (9.97%) n/t

[tclambert]

66. Now BP is up 10%

Wild fluctuations.

[ozymandius]

8. Highlights from the Fed's latest economic survey

WASHINGTON – The Federal Reserve's survey of economic conditions found growth has spread to all parts of the country for the first time since the recession began.
The survey, released Wednesday and known as the Beige Book, is based on information collected from the Fed's 12 regional bank districts. The last time the 12 regions all showed growth was in late 2007.

BOSTON

(This region covers Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and part of Connecticut.)

Software and information technology firms reported "demand up significantly" from a year ago. Companies in the manufacturing, pharmaceutical and IT industries are modestly increasing hiring. Firms that had frozen pay are reinstating merit-based raises. The European debt crisis and the strengthening dollar are concerns for firms with international business, but growth is expected to continue. Commercial real estate leasing was flat and in some cases "noticeably improved" compared to a few months ago.

NEW YORK

(This region covers New York and parts of Connecticut and New Jersey.)

The economy strengthened with "scattered signs of improvement in the job market." Retail sales were strong in April but slowed in May. Tourism in New York City improved in April and May, with Manhattan hotels reporting higher occupancy. Commercial real estate leasing has "picked up noticeably" this year, though vacancy rates are still edging up. Rents "appear to be bottoming."

PHILADELPHIA

(This region covers Delaware and parts of Pennsylvania and New Jersey.)

The economy grew modestly. The business outlook is "positive but cautious." Manufacturers reported demand for their goods slowly increasing. Merchants said sales rose in May from April, and spring apparel sales continued to do well. Bankers said there has been a "small increase" in business lending, as demand for loans has also risen.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100609/ap_on_bi_ge/us_fed_economy_regions

[Demeter]

16. Detroit ISN'T Chicago, Guys

and lumping them together obscures the fact that the Rust Belt is frayed and about to snap. Another Potemkin statistic.

[ozymandius]

15. World stocks up on Fed report but BP weighs

European stocks rose moderately Thursday as an upbeat economic report from the Federal Reserve outweighed worries about the debt crisis and BP's stock plunge to 13-year lows.

Investors were also preparing for an interest rate decision by the European Central Bank, with special focus on the bank's outlook and details of its bond-buying program.

Britain's FTSE 100 gained 13.11 points, or 0.3 percent, to 5,098.97. Germany's DAX added 30.94 points, or 0.5 percent, to 6,015.69, and France's, CAC-40 was up 35.74 points, or 1.0 percent, to 3,482.51. The euro rose to $1.2085 from $1.1980.

European stocks rose moderately Thursday as an upbeat economic report from the Federal Reserve outweighed worries about the debt crisis and BP's stock plunge to 13-year lows.

Investors were also preparing for an interest rate decision by the European Central Bank, with special focus on the bank's outlook and details of its bond-buying program.
Britain's FTSE 100 gained 13.11 points, or 0.3 percent, to 5,098.97. Germany's DAX added 30.94 points, or 0.5 percent, to 6,015.69, and France's, CAC-40 was up 35.74 points, or 1.0 percent, to 3,482.51. The euro rose to $1.2085 from $1.1980.

Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 stock average on Thursday added 66.55 points, or 0.7 percent, to 9,505.39.

South Korea's Kospi index rose 14.80, or 0.9 percent, to 1,662.02 while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was up 1 percent at 4,427.70. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.5 percent to 19,717.62. Benchmarks in Singapore, Taiwan and New Zealand also were up.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100610/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[ozymandius]

20. Asia markets mostly rise on upbeat data; Shanghai off 0.8%

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Asian markets ended mostly higher Thursday as upbeat economic data from China, Japan and Australia as well as gains in commodity prices helped investors overlook losses on Wall Street and the euro zone's fiscal troubles.

Chinese stocks declined, however, with shares of real-estate developers taking a hit as continued increases in property prices sparked worries that Beijing might be forced to implement more restrictive policies.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Average and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 gained 1.1% each, as South Korea's Kospi rose 0.3% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index inched up 0.1%. Taiwan's Taiex jumped 1.6%, while China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.8%.

Chinese shares lost ground despite data that the country's exports surged 48.5% in May from a year earlier, boosting the monthly trade surplus to $19.5 billion, as investors focused on a separate data release about property prices. The figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that property prices in China's biggest cities rose for a 12th straight month in May, climbing 12.4% on a year-on-year basis.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/asia-shares-end-mostly-higher-on-upbeat-data-2010-06-10?reflink=MW_news_stmp

[Demeter]

17. Fee disclosure is coming to your 401(k)

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fee-disclosure-is-coming-to-your-401k-2010-06-10?siteid=YAHOOB

JUST IN TIME TO SHOW YOU WHERE THE LAST FEW PENNIES OF YOUR SAVINGS WENT...

Investors lost a battle this week, but the war isn't over. Lawmakers in the Senate decided to drop a measure that would have forced the 401(k) industry to disclose fees to participants. But that's OK, because the numbers still favor retirement savers.

There are 50 million 401(k) participants who deserve to know how much they are paying for their retirement account. By contrast, there are just a few dozen lawmakers and few dozen lobbying groups that don't want 401(k) investors to know just how much things cost.

Now don't get me wrong. Those who advocate against 401(k) fee disclosure make some valid points. It's quite possible that the systems in place can't produce the reports that would be mandated. It's quite possible that investors might not use or they might not understand the fee information.

But that doesn't mean it can't be done or that it shouldn't. After all, many vendors are capable of telling customers what things costs and do tell customers what things cost. And most customers are able to make sense of those numbers. For instance, hospitals tell patients not just the cost of a blood test, but the costs associated with testing every single element of our blood, including good and bad cholesterol and triglycerides. Car dealers reveal to customers the costs associated with buying a car, including the holdback and wholesale financial reserves.

Lawmakers are more than welcome to drag their collective feet on this one. They are more than welcome to buy into the lobbying groups' point of view on this one. But investors will win the war if visionaries and watchdogs get their way.
Putnam leads the way

Consider: In May, Putnam Investments became the first mover. The company is disclosing all of the fees in the defined-contribution plans it manages, including investment management, servicing (including advisory fees), and recordkeeping. For plan sponsor executives, Putnam will break out asset manager revenue from servicing revenue -- and show the amounts paid to every investment management firm that offers funds to a retirement plan. What's more, Putnam will identify adviser payments, and disclose specific dollar costs for recordkeeping and plan servicing. Putnam is disclosing these fees first to plan sponsor executives and later this summer to plan participants. To plan participants, Putnam plans to provide fund expense ratios, transaction fees, and other information.

There's plenty to debate about why Putnam did this. Some say it was nothing more than a public relations ploy in an extremely competitive 401(k) market that has Putnam trying to takeaway business from those firms with a larger share of the market.

Putnam says it's doing it for the right reasons, acting in the best interest of 401(k) plan participants. "We believe working people and employers have a right to know exactly what they are paying for all elements of their 401(k)s and other retirement plans and that financial service providers have an obligation to offer them this information and explain the value they're paying for," Robert Reynolds, Putnam's president and chief executive, said in a release in May. Read that release.

No matter the reason, Putnam will force 401(k) plan providers to follow suit, especially once plan participants and sponsors start demanding it from their current providers.

"Other providers will follow," Ary Rosenbaum of The Rosenbaum Law Firm wrote in a recent posting on LinkedIn about Putnam's plan to disclose fees. "Full fee disclosure is the future."

Others agree. "I am a huge fan of fee transparency; it is a hot-button topic with plan sponsors and advisers," Brian Douglas , a regional pension consultant at Retirement Alliance Inc. wrote on LinkedIn. "Bundled and un-bundled providers will have to follow suit and as a benefit it will create an environment where it's easier for advisers, consultants and/or plan sponsors to make an apples-to-apples comparison."

Putnam is not the first to disclose fees in the 401(k) market. Many record-keepers and third-party administrators already do so. But Putnam is thought to be the first of the big firms to do it.

Consider also what certain lawmakers are saying. Democratic Rep. George Miller of California, the chair of the House Education and Labor Committee, this week said in a release that the U.S. Senate's proposed elimination, from the jobs bill currently being debated, of important reforms to expose hidden 401(k) fees was "unacceptable" and he vowed to fight to include the reforms. The 401(k) fee disclosure provisions were part of a bill the House of Representatives approved and sent to the Senate on May 28. Read the 401(k) provisions at this website. See story on House votes to extend jobless benefits, tax breaks. See story on Senate takes up jobs bill, makes substantial changes.

Those in the 401(k) world, participants, sponsors and providers, are also waiting on the Labor Department to issue final regulations on 401(k) disclosure this month.
Expense ratios are 'not the holy grail'

To be fair, there are those who take a measured approach to the issue of fee disclosure.

"The concept of fee disclosure is good, period," said Ross Marino, chief executive of 401(k) Rekon, a provider of research and training for financial advisers. "It makes the market more competitive when sponsors and advisers are more informed. When there's full disclosure, it's a better market."

But Marino is also fearful of the unintended consequences of fee disclosure. If people become obsessed with fees, they might lose sight of the need to create a portfolio that's prudent, for instance. For instance, some investors might need an emerging growth fund, which tend to have high expense ratios compared to other funds, in their portfolio but opt for a low-cost fund that they don't need or that duplicates the investment objective of another fund.

"Expense ratios are just a data point, not the holy grail to success," Marino said. "An obsession with fees might leave people picking funds that aren't right for them."

Marino also envisions the possibility of plan providers and sponsors having to unbundle services and offering participants services a la carte. If that happens, participants might opt of services that they might need, such as investor education, Marino said.

Others are in the "yes, but" camp too. "Any disclosure that is too complex for the 'decider' to immediately grasp and use is counter-productive and is better left unstated," said Louis Harvey, president of Dalbar, a financial services market research firm. "For fees to be useful in decision making the 'decider' has to understand what the fees are and what they are buying," he said. "401(k) fees should be subjected to this standard. Instead of disclosing the complex sets of relationships, employers and employees would be well served with fee statements that showed the services provided and the dollars paid or anticipated. The breakdown of services provided should be limited to items that are familiar to the employer and employee."

So here we are. The Senate is now debating its version of the jobs bill, and it's possible lawmakers will reverse their decision to remove the fee disclosure provision. But if not, that's OK. Fee disclosure is really more a question of when -- not if.

[hamerfan]

23. NOT a plug,

But I'm glad I'm with TIAA-Cref. They have disclosed their 403(b) fees for a long time now, and they are very reasonable.
hamerfan

[mrdmk]

58. Ross Marino can take his fee discloser concept and stick it were the sun does not shine!

Oh, excuse me, my bad for it is already there...

[ozymandius]

18. US Foreclosures Fall, Bank Repossessions Hit Record High

The national foreclosure rate continued to fall in May from the previous month, according to a new report released Thursday.

However, bank repossessions reached a record high during the same month, a sign that lenders are focusing on their backlog of foreclosure inventory before tackling new distressed loans, according to foreclosure database website RealtyTrac, which released the report.

“What it looks like is that the lenders are focusing on processing the delinquent loans they already have rather than initiating new foreclosures,” said Rick Sharga, senior vice president of RealtyTrac. “They’re managing inventory to prevent a free fall in home prices.”

Foreclosure activity dropped 3.27 percent in May from the previous month, and was up 0.45 percent from May 2009. In all, 322,920 properties generated a foreclosure notice. One in every 400 homes in America received a foreclosure notice in May. (Foreclosure notices are defined as a default notice, auction sale notice or bank repossession.)

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37599834

[Demeter]

19. May foreclosure rate steadies as banks hold back

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100610/ap_on_bi_ge/us_foreclosure_rates


MY GOD, THE SPIN IN THE HEADLINES IS MAKING ME SICK!

The foreclosure crisis appears to be leveling off.

The number of people facing foreclosure is nearly flat from a year ago, according to the latest report from a private foreclosure listing service. A third fewer people are receiving legal warnings that they could lose their homes. And foreclosures are receding in some of the hardest-hit cities.

Still, the number of foreclosures remains extraordinarily high. Experts caution that a big reason for the stabilization is that banks are letting delinquent borrowers stay longer in their homes rather than adding to the glut of foreclosed properties on the market. New consumer protection laws, which vary by state, have also meant borrowers can spend more time in their homes.

A new wave of foreclosures could be coming in the second half of the year, especially if the unemployment rate remains high, mortgage-assistance programs fail, and the economy doesn't improve fast enough to lift home sales.

"It's not anything like a recovery yet," said Rick Sharga, a senior vice president at RealtyTrac Inc., a foreclosure listing service.

RealtyTrac reported Thursday that nearly 323,000 households, or one in every 400 homes, received a foreclosure-related notice in May. That was up 0.5 percent from a year earlier but down 3 percent from April. The report tracks notices for defaults, scheduled home auctions and home repossessions.

But in a sign that the crisis is far from over, the number of homeowners who lost their homes to foreclosure hit a record of nearly 94,000 in May. That number may finally peak next year, as lenders try to work their way through millions of delinquent loans.

Economic woes, such as unemployment or reduced income, are the main catalysts for foreclosures this year. Initially, lax lending standards were the culprit. Now, homeowners with good credit who took out conventional, fixed-rate loans are the fastest growing group of foreclosures.

A record high of more than 10 percent of homeowners with a mortgage had missed at least one payment as of the end of March, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. But the number of homeowners just starting to show trouble is trending downward as the economy improves.

"That's a very good thing," said Thomas Lawler, an independent housing economist in Virginia. But he noted that even with that positive trend, "you are highly likely to see an acceleration in the number of actual completed foreclosures."

Lenders are offering to help some homeowners modify their loans. But many borrowers can't qualify or they are falling back into default. The Obama administration's $75 billion foreclosure prevention effort has made only a small dent in the problem.

About 25 percent of the 1.2 million homeowners who started the program over the past year had received permanent loan modifications as of April. About 23 percent of those enrolled dropped out during a trial phase that lasts at least three months. Many more are in limbo.

Among states, Nevada posted the highest foreclosure rate in May. One in every 79 households there received a foreclosure notice. However, foreclosures there are down 16 percent from a year earlier.

Arizona, Florida, California and Michigan were next among states with the highest foreclosure rates. Rounding out the top 10 were Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Utah and Maryland.

Las Vegas continued to be the city with the nation's highest foreclosure rate, but activity there was down 18 percent from a year earlier. And nine out of the top 10 cities with the highest foreclosure rates posted annual declines. The exception was the Vallejo-Fairfield area in California, where foreclosures were up 1 percent from a year ago.

Foreclosed homes are typically sold at steep discounts, lowering the value of surrounding properties. That's a concern for local communities, and a drag on the economic recovery.

In recent months, home prices have started to sink again after stabilizing last summer. Economists at Goldman Sachs predicted in a report last week that prices will fall about 3 percent nationally over the next year, with the largest declines in cities where mortgage defaults are rising.

"The housing market remains plagued by enormous excess supply," wrote Goldman economist Sven Jari Stehn.

[Demeter]

37. The Housing Non-Recovery By Whitney Tilson

http://dailyreckoning.com/the-housing-non-recovery/

...In early May of 2008 housing prices had already been declining for two years. The Bear Stearns hedge funds had blown up a year earlier. NovaStar and New Century Financial had also blown up a year earlier. The subprime crisis was well upon us. And many, many people thought that this was going to be contained to subprime.

But we announced that the data led us to believe the contrary and we delivered our analysis in a presentation entitled, “Why We’re Still in the Early Innings of the Bursting Housing and Credit Bubbles.” We concluded that things were terrible and that there was no sign of a bottom. Obviously, that forecast was on target.

So where are we today?

Two thirds of American homes have mortgages – 56 million mortgages outstanding. A little over half are owned or guaranteed by government entities. 35% are held on the balance sheets of banks and thrifts, and 15% are so-called private label securities that went to Wall Street. This last piece was the sub-prime stuff that was some of the very worst mortgage debt ever written.

It’s very easy to get complacent about the mortgage market, as housing prices have stabilized and foreclosures have stabilized, you know, ‘we don’t have to worry about that anymore.’ But I’d argue to the contrary, let me show you why.

Fourteen percent of America’s 56 million mortgages are already delinquent or in foreclosure. So if you multiply 56 million by 14%, that means that 7.8 million people right now are not paying their mortgages. 7.8 million homeowners have been delinquent for 30, 60 or 90 days…or are in foreclosure already. 91% of the people who are currently not paying are never going to get back to current, according to recent statistics. So that means that of 7.8 million people not paying their mortgage, 7.2 million are never going to get back. So that’s a problem. 7.2 million homes. 7.2 million mortgages will go into foreclosure…eventually. GRAPH AT LINK

Mortgage Delinquencies and Foreclosures

And the real story is even worse than the nearby chart suggests. Because of loan modification programs, the government, banks and servicers have dramatically slowed down the foreclosure process. The banks have been modifying everybody, slowing down the foreclosure pipeline and not taking properties onto their books. CHART AT LINK

So what this means is that the rate of NON-foreclosure on delinquent borrowers is climbing sharply. As the nearby chart illustrates, 24% of the people who have not made a mortgage payment during the last two years have still not been foreclosed on. That’s how clogged the foreclosure pipeline is.

Home Foreclosures

So what’s going on? Well, there are a lot of modifications going on the past year. But modifications don’t really work very well. It turns out that even when you cut someone’s mortgage payment by 50% or more, half of them still default within 12 months. The re-default rate is astronomical…even when you cut the monthly payments dramatically.

So why is that? Because the real driver is people being under water, people who have no ‘skin in the game.’ Basically what we did in this crisis is we gave American homeowners a $2 trillion “call option” on home price appreciation. But when the value of their properties fell below their debt levels, they handed the keys to the lender; that’s what people do. And that’s what American homeowners have done.

To some extent American homeowners are now minimizing the human toll of losing homes and so forth. Purely as a group, on an economic basis, they’re the only rational players in this bubble. They’ve pocketed $2 trillion in cash and now, when the value of the property falls below their debt, they’re walking away. As it turns out, the unemployment rate isn’t really much of a driver of default rates. Instead, it’s all about home equity…or the lack thereof.

So what does the future hold? Foreclosures are starting to spike back up as the trial ‘mods’ are failing and moving into foreclosure. If we’re very lucky, home prices will stabilize here. But if interest rates go up, and if we don’t properly deal with those 7.85 million people who aren’t paying their mortgages and those delinquent mortgages turn into foreclosures, look out below!

Today about 17.2% of homeowners are underwater. But if home prices drop 10% from here, 27% of homeowners would go underwater. In other words, a 10% drop in home prices would cause a 56% increase in the number of people underwater…which would almost certainly lead to another surge in defaults.

So I really think the housing market is on a precipice right now, where we need some very strong intervention by the government, by the banks and the servicers to offset what, in the absence of strong action, would be a resurgence of foreclosures, which would lead to a fresh drop in home prices, which will lead to even more defaults… And you can get into the vicious cycle that we were in back in ’07 through ’08.

One big problem in all of this is second liens. You have $842 billion in second liens outstanding and the majority of them are owned by the Big 4 banks. And you have this bizarre situation where American consumers are not making the $1,200 monthly payment on their first lien, but maybe just to prevent harassing phone calls from debt lenders, they are paying the $150 second lien. Well, that means that the banks are looking at this and they’re holding all of these second liens at par, even if the first lien has already gone bad.

This situation makes the banks very reluctant to approve a short sale, since that would completely wipe out the second lien. Because if you write down the first lien, the second lien is a zero. Of course, banks just don’t want to do that because it’s a huge amount of money that would wipe out the equity of these Big 4 banks, if they were to mark these second liens to zero. This is a big problem.

Then there’s commercial real estate. The majority of commercial real estate loans that are coming due, nothing is happening on them. They don’t get refinanced, but they don’t get foreclosed on either. It’s “extend and pretend” or “delay and pray.” That’s what’s going on with commercial real estate.

Net-net, there’s more pain to come in the real estate market.

[AnneD]

54. The Housing non recovery

aught to go nicely with the jobless recovery :eyes:

Exactly how stupid do they think we are. I don't know what it will take for folks to take to the streets with pitchforks but the loss of Ted Kennedy's seat and the Union activity in Arkansas should be telling the centrist Dems a clear message: the natives are restless.

From that 'un named source' yes we may have pissed away 10 mil, but last time I looked-it was OUR 10 mil to piss away. From the way the admin is trashing teachers-the dems shouldn't be counting on much support there either. Just my on the ground observation. Oh and the Dems have pretty much lost Houston too. Damn shame-they could have turned Texas blue. I still have hope for Bill White (D)for governor.

[Tansy_Gold]

70. I have a problem or two with this -- unless I've got it all wrong

"To some extent American homeowners are now minimizing the human toll of losing homes and so forth. Purely as a group, on an economic basis, they’re the only rational players in this bubble. They’ve pocketed $2 trillion in cash and now, when the value of the property falls below their debt, they’re walking away. As it turns out, the unemployment rate isn’t really much of a driver of default rates. Instead, it’s all about home equity…or the lack thereof."

1. I don't think they've "pocketed" $2 trillion in cash. While it may be a matter of semantics, I think it also needs to be looked at in terms of how that $2T has been recycled into the economy.

A. Mortgage loan of $400k on a house sold for $450k. When the value drops to $300k, who "pocketed" the $150K difference? The seller did, and that money is no longer a debt. The lender stands to lose it, if the buyer defaults, but the homeowner sure as hell didn't put it in his pocket.

B. Mortgage loan of $100K on a house now worth $450k. Homeowner refis to $300k, taking $200k in cash. More than likely, that $200K was spent on various goods and services that "fueled" the economy. It may have been spent on living expenses as income fell, but it was still recycled. If the value of the home drops to $300K, homeowner isn't underwater, and assuming they can still make mortgage payments, there's been no unfair advantage to the homeowner. Lender hasn't lost anything either.

C. Mortgage loan of $300K on a house sold for $300K. House now worth $150K, but homeowner can still afford payments. Yes, they're underwater, but to walk away means losing everything including a place to live. Economists, bankers, pundits and bloviators seem to be thinking solely in terms of $$$ and not in the human terms of having a place to live, a place to raise the kids, a place to have a dog or two, a place to try to build some kind of "estate" for future generations. That's been the main enticement of homeownership, I think, over renting. At the end of 20, 25, or 30 years of renting, even though it may have been a little cheaper over all, all you've got is a box of rent receipts. The mortgage payments, including interest, may be higher than renting, but eventually the mortgage does go away. So there's no cash taken out of this, but rather cash put in.

2. It's about equity, yes, but more in terms of C above than the short-term projection the author implies. Most home buyers understand that building equity is a slow process and that even with a reasonable down payment (10-15%) the equity is going to build very very slowly at first, because most of the payment is interest. Investing in a home has always been a long term proposition. I don't really think that attitude changed entirely over the past 10 years (which is how long I consider the boom/bubble to have been). And I think blaming the homeowners is STILL the easiest thing to do, because it gets the speculators, the mortgage brokers, the bankers, all the rest of them who really didn't have any skin in the game.

The homeowner -- as opposed to the speculator or the real estate investor -- always has skin in the game, and I don't think many of them are blithely walking away because oops, the house isn't worth as much as they'd like it to be. It's because they've lost their incomes and can't make the payments.


At least three homes in my neighborhood have been lost to foreclosure, and I think another will join that group before the end of the month. Maybe two. All but one were purchased at the top of the bubble; all were lost due to inability to pay as owners lost jobs. Home prices/values here have fallen 30-50% since the 2006 peak. But no one wants to be homeless. No one wants to tell their kids they have to move and give up the dog and the kitten and move in with relatives or into a cramped apartment. No one wants to admit the dream has become a nightmare. No one walks away "just" because they're underwater. They walk away because they can't pay.

The bankers aren't hurting. And why should they? They can blame all their "problems" on the people they've actually hurt.


Wankers.




Tansy Gold

[ozymandius]

22. Goldman's Hudson CDO Said to Be Target of 2nd SEC Probe

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s $2 billion Hudson Mezzanine collateralized debt obligation, sold in 2006, is the target of a probe by the Securities and Exchange Commission, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

The inquiry into the CDO may not lead to any additional actions against the New York-based securities firm, said the person, who declined to be identified because the investigation isn’t public. Michael DuVally, a spokesman for Goldman Sachs, declined to comment, as did SEC spokesman John Nester. The Financial Times reported the probe yesterday.

Goldman Sachs shares have fallen 26 percent since the SEC filed a fraud lawsuit against the firm on April 16 that related to its 2007 sale of a CDO called Abacus. Senator Carl Levin, a Michigan Democrat, said in April that Goldman Sachs’s sales of CDOs such as Hudson raised “a real ethical issue.”

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s $2 billion Hudson Mezzanine collateralized debt obligation, sold in 2006, is the target of a probe by the Securities and Exchange Commission, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

While Goldman Sachs was short on the Hudson Mezzanine CDO, meaning it stood to gain from a collapse because of the credit protection it had purchased, a marketing document for the deal released by Levin’s committee states that “Goldman Sachs has aligned incentives with the Hudson program.”

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-10/goldman-sachs-hudson-cdo-said-to-be-target-of-second-sec-probe.html

---

Dang. Those GS people had al the angles covered. Even shorting (i.e. betting the securities would decline in value) their own products.

[ozymandius]

24. Paulson/Geithner Committed Fraud in AIG Disclosures

From Ritholtz:

Go figure: Bush Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and then NY Fed President Tim Geithner misled the public as to how bad AIG’s position actually was.

The two failed to disclose to the public that the AIG problem was even worse than reported. They described AIG’s problems as a “cash squeeze” when it was in fact a full blown bailout of AIG. What was supposedly a loan to a distressed company in fact was a bailout of dubious legality.

Had the reality of the situation been properly disclosed, the $185 billion rescue might not have been made. Hence, the fraud.

Here is McClatchy:

"At the peak of the 2008 financial crisis, then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and top Federal Reserve officials told the nation that there was an urgent need for the government to lend $85 billion to the American International Group so the giant insurer’s temporary cash squeeze wouldn’t trigger global financial chaos.

Nearly two years later, taxpayers are on the hook for twice that amount, and it now appears that Paulson and senior Federal Reserve officials either plunged ahead without understanding AIG’s financial situation and the risks it posed to taxpayers — or were less than candid about one of the largest corporate bailouts in U.S. history.”

The key issue is whether the government had the legal authority to bailout AIG if they were insolvent. Hence, the motivation for declaring a cash squeeze rather than a full blown bailout. There is the secondary question of whether the rescue of AIG, as orchestrated by Henry Paulson, was really an indirect rescue of Goldman Sachs.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/06/paulsongeithner-committed-fraud-in-aig-disclosures/

---

Go read the whole thing.

[Po_d Mainiac]

25. Sure do wish Cassano would sing

Or at least hummm a few bars

[Demeter]

31. He has no motivation to do so

He got away with it all.

[Po_d Mainiac]

44. Ayuh, and TPTB bought that silence

[Demeter]

30. The ENTIRE WORLD Knew This!

That's why Congress was deluged with calls and faxes and emails telling them NOT to open the public purse to bail out AIG.

And yet Congress did it anyway.

Go figure yourself.

[ozymandius]

32. U.S. Faces 'Severe' AIG Losses, Says Panel

A watchdog panel reviewing the bailout of American International Group Inc. said U.S. taxpayers "remain at risk for severe losses" and that the government didn't act aggressively enough to protect U.S. taxpayers during the 2008 rescue.

In a lengthy report, the bipartisan Congressional Oversight Panel concluded that the U.S. government, which owns nearly 80% of the insurance giant, is likely to "remain a significant shareholder in AIG through 2012" and it is unclear if taxpayers "will ever be repaid in full."

The report contrasted with more optimistic comments Wednesday by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke before a U.S. House panel.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704575304575296822650958544.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTWhatsNews

[ozymandius]

36. Source article: AIG's problems far greater than Bush officials told public

WASHINGTON — At the peak of the 2008 financial crisis, then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and top Federal Reserve officials told the nation that there was an urgent need for the government to lend $85 billion to the American International Group so the giant insurer's temporary cash squeeze wouldn't trigger global financial chaos.

Nearly two years later, taxpayers are on the hook for twice that amount, and it now appears that Paulson and senior Federal Reserve officials either plunged ahead without understanding AIG's financial situation and the risks it posed to taxpayers — or were less than candid about one of the largest corporate bailouts in U.S. history.

AIG reported combined total losses of $110 billion in 2008 and 2009, erasing any doubt that the government stepped into a colossal mess.

Elizabeth Warren, the chairwoman of the Congressional Oversight Panel that's tracking the use of bailout money, said at a hearing in late May that the government "broke all the rules" with its rescue of AIG, which she labeled a "corporate Frankenstein" that defied regulatory oversight.

Warren, whose panel is completing a critical report on the bailout, said, "The government invented a new process out of whole cloth."

In a normal restructuring, she said, AIG's shareholders "should have lost everything, and its creditors should have taken substantial losses."

Read more: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/06/08/95534/aigs-problems-far-greater.html#storylink=omni_popular%23ixzz0qQ7RvkbQ#ixzz0qSEHBe8z

[Demeter]

39. It's Not Too Late

The shareholders can get their haircut, and the creditors can be dealt with. If there's anyone in DC with the will to do right by the US.

[DemReadingDU]

43. Party time, Dow up +180!

[hamerfan]

45. Ponies!

For all!

[Juneboarder]

59. Okay, who the heck is propping the markets up today?

How in the heck can they keep the Dow above $10,000?

[DemReadingDU]

63. wow, +265!

Maybe it is the high frequency computer algorithms? Probably tomorrow the HFT algos get changed and we'll see the market lose 265.
:crazy:

[Juneboarder]

65. Hopefully not, but ... yea.

There's been a lot of propping up of the markets, and its crazy to see upwards leaps when it should be going down (or at least that's my humble, under-educated opinion).

[DemReadingDU]

68. The markets are rigged

They're being propped up to get in the rest of the suckers before the big guys cash in their winnings and set the markets downward for a very long time where the suckers are left holding empty bags.

:(

[Juneboarder]

69. It's sad...

It's even sadder to see how many people are clueless to what is going on. It makes me wonder if, when the time comes for the markets to correct themselves and "stuff" hits the fan, will America really understand what is happening, or will they continue to salute to Faux News?

[TalkingDog]

47. Sent by a friend: PhD Thesis re-examining Depression 1.0 (it's the jobs stupid)

http://mason.gmu.edu/~jcochra1/index_files/EOM.pdf WARNING: clicking link will download this to your computer unless you have your download manager set differently than mine.....

Frankly, deadly dull to somebody like me who needs lots of pictures or, barring that, a spaceship and some aliens. But them that is interested can read up and tell me if my summary in the subject line is incorrect.

[Warpy]

72. Oh, you bet I want to read it.

If he understands it's the jobs, maybe he'll understand that what prolonged it was an addlepated, conservative Congress insisting on a balanced budget instead of continuing all the programs that were working so well.

Deficit hawks are our deadly enemy now as they were then. They're always silent as a tomb going into a depression and suddenly get that old time religion when the opposing party is struggling to get us out of one.

[Tansy_Gold]

73. it was a different economy then, and a different world, but still

it will be interesting to see how he covers it, ESPECIALLY since he's taking it from 1919 to 1939 -- 10 years before and 10 years in.


Looks like good evening reading. . ..


:evilgrin:



TG

[Festivito]

48. Debt: 06/08/2010 13,056,957,049,453.42 (UP 4,752,171,166.66) (Tue)

(Down a little. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,577,518,574,552.20 + 4,479,438,474,901.22
DOWN 61,366,300.19 + UP 4,813,537,466.85

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,231.71 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.70, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,433,839 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,196.28.
A family of three owes $126,588.84. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 6,095,991,658.28.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,267,194,160.80.
The average for the last 32 days would be 4,000,494,525.75.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 171 reports in 251 days of FY2010 averaging 6.71B$ per report, 4.57B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 957 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.4 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
06/08/2010 13,056,957,049,453.42 BHO (UP 2,430,080,000,540.34 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,147,128,045,941.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,668,134,409,437.14 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
05/18/2010 +000,360,533,772.20 ------------******** Tue
05/19/2010 +000,208,812,715.15 ------------********
05/20/2010 +010,103,129,083.31 ------------**********
05/21/2010 +000,263,393,058.28 ------------********
05/24/2010 +000,371,674,396.55 ------------******** Mon
05/25/2010 +000,937,216,055.27 ------------********
05/26/2010 +001,057,190,066.84 ------------*********
05/27/2010 +015,241,764,354.27 ------------**********
05/28/2010 -000,294,414,430.12 ---
06/01/2010 +078,359,726,143.31 ------------********** Tue
06/02/2010 +000,523,171,733.61 ------------********
06/03/2010 +004,027,515,403.86 ------------*********
06/04/2010 +000,194,136,067.09 ------------********
06/07/2010 +000,055,958,918.33 ------------******* Mon
06/08/2010 -000,061,366,300.19 ----

111,348,441,037.76 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4419350&mesg_id=4420352

[Festivito]

80. Debt: 06/09/2010 13,046,148,615,770.79 (DOWN 10,808,433,682.63) (Wed)

(Up a little. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,577,892,793,467.92 + 4,468,255,822,302.87
UP 374,218,915.72 + DOWN 11,182,652,598.35

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,231.64 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.69, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,440,485 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,160.45.
A family of three owes $126,481.34. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 5,327,608,688.24.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,906,913,038.04.
The average for the last 33 days would be 3,551,739,125.49.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 172 reports in 252 days of FY2010 averaging 6.61B$ per report, 4.51B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 956 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.4 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
06/09/2010 13,046,148,615,770.79 BHO (UP 2,419,271,566,857.71 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,136,319,612,259.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,645,859,755,851.33 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
05/19/2010 +000,208,812,715.15 ------------********
05/20/2010 +010,103,129,083.31 ------------**********
05/21/2010 +000,263,393,058.28 ------------********
05/24/2010 +000,371,674,396.55 ------------******** Mon
05/25/2010 +000,937,216,055.27 ------------********
05/26/2010 +001,057,190,066.84 ------------*********
05/27/2010 +015,241,764,354.27 ------------**********
05/28/2010 -000,294,414,430.12 ---
06/01/2010 +078,359,726,143.31 ------------********** Tue
06/02/2010 +000,523,171,733.61 ------------********
06/03/2010 +004,027,515,403.86 ------------*********
06/04/2010 +000,194,136,067.09 ------------********
06/07/2010 +000,055,958,918.33 ------------******* Mon
06/08/2010 -000,061,366,300.19 ----
06/09/2010 +000,374,218,915.72 ------------********

111,362,126,181.28 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4421079&mesg_id=4421390

[Demeter]

50. Somebody Must Have Shaken Tinkerbell Into a Coma

200 points! On what? Bernanke's word?

[Politics_Guy25]

51. It's the weekly jobless claims numbers-lowest since Dec 2008 baby!

President Obama's economic strategy is working after all and the May employment number may have been an abberation if this holds imo!!

[Dr.Phool]

60. 456,000 new claims is a good number?

It's only down by 3,000 from last week because they revised last weeks numbers up 6,000. So, that's 3,000 more than they reported last week.

Continuing claims down? Yeah, by just about the number who got tossed off of the unemployment benefit rolls because they've gone through their entire 99 weeks of benefits and emergency extended benefits.

[Statistical]

67. 456,000 claims is a good number compared to 700,000 new claims a week 6 months ago.

As long as it keeps going down each week.

[Politics_Guy25]

52. More good news below

Gallup's consumer spending measure and Job Creation Index are at or near their highest levels in more than 17 months. These improvements come even as economic confidence has eroded slightly, underscoring the degree to which attitudes about the economy may diverge from actual economic behavior.

[AnneD]

55. Houston has weathered this Depression fairly well....

but this has gone on so long that thing are now getting worse here. On top of the slow down: NASA has been hit hard, the offshore drilling is really hurting now, the city is starting to implement a bare bones budget that will include lay offs, and just about every school district in the county is laying off staff.

No offense intended to you personally Politics guy-but blow smoke up someone else's skirt.

[Tansy_Gold]

56. You owe me a keyboard n/t

[AnneD]

61. I promise that....

when we are elected President and VP-I will give you the key board of your choice. Now that is one campaign promise you can count on Tansy.

[Dr.Phool]

62. What do I get out of this deal?

Court Jester? Kennel Cleaner?

[AnneD]

64. Tansy has more dogs than I do.....

She might need the Kennel Cleaner but you might want to pass. I plan to have a wine/liquor taste tester. We will have an opening. I like Margaritas.

[Tansy_Gold]

74. Chief of staff?

:hide:

[Dr.Phool]

75. Are you FUCKING RETARDED?

I'm qualified.

[Demeter]

76. Now You've Got ME Thinking!

If I had to move to DC, I'd end up taking care of my father....not sure I'd be able to fulfill any governmental duties....

Besides, I'm a very practical gal. Engineering, cooking, manufacturing...can't think of anything on the White House Staff (other than chef) that would satisfy that need for physical results.

Dog walker maybe?

It's nice to have a dream.

Speaking of Thinking....

Tomorrow is Friday, and Friday means Weekend Economists need a theme or diversionary topic to keep us all from turning into Mugambo Gurus running down the street in underwear screaming "We're freaking doomed!"

So put on your thinking caps and give us a motif. And can't use disaster again. After all, this week wasn't as bad as last week--compared to the week before.

[Tansy_Gold]

78. Yeah. Last week's theme got us locked!

:scared:

[Demeter]

79. I Don't Think It Was the Theme, but The Tenor of the Posts

which ran counter to the Cult fetishes.

[DemReadingDU]

81. It's getting weird around DU

One of the posters I occasionally read in GD, was 'asked to leave' yesterday. The thread is gone now, it's a disturbing trend.

[Demeter]

82. "Asked" to Leave?

That is weird.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

71. Winner, winner chicken dinner!

:woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:

[Tansy_Gold]

77. THAT

is a scary picture.