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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 06:36 AM
Original message
STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday June 9
Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday June 9, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 8, 2010

Dow... 9,939.98 +123.49 (+1.26%)
Nasdaq... 2,170.57 -3.33 (-0.15%)
S&P 500... 1,062.00 +11.53 (+1.10%)
Gold future... 1,240 -5.80 (-0.47%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.20 +0.01 (+0.22%)
30-Year Bond 4.12 +0.01 (+0.19%)



Market Conditions During Trading Hours


Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold






Handy Links - Market Data and News:
Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:

The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong      Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:

LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 =
11









This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 06:37 AM
Response to Original message
1. There you are, ozy
hope all is well today.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:05 AM
Response to Reply #1
5. Good morning.
:donut: :donut: :donut:
DU would not load for me this morning. I spent an hour trying. Other sites loaded perfectly well. :shrug:
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 06:49 AM
Response to Original message
2. Index Futures - I think I can...I think I can...I think I can....
S&P 500 1,062 +2.60 +0.25%
DOW 9,928 +14.00 +0.14%
NASDAQ 1,793 +1.50 +0.08%
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 06:55 AM
Response to Reply #2
4. Euro up, Oil up, US markets up...same old/same old. n/t
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:11 AM
Response to Reply #2
10. If They Had Another Half Hour Yesterday, The HFT Could Have Gotten
Edited on Wed Jun-09-10 07:15 AM by Demeter
the DOW back over 10,000.

Who are they trying to kid?


The Beige Book comes out at 2 PM. Expect all hell to break loose.
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 10:49 AM
Response to Reply #2
57. I knew I could...I knew I could...I knew I could....
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 06:51 AM
Response to Original message
3. Ayuh
:donut:

Will the SCB stop the crash of CHF for more than 80 seconds today, or will their supply of EURO's dry up?
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:13 AM
Response to Reply #3
11. Translation?
I don't speak Alphabet
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:40 AM
Response to Reply #11
25. Well
Ayuh is Maine speak for yes, no, maybe or I'm constipated.

SCB = Swiss Central Bank
CHF = Swiss currency

The CHF has fallen for the past week...The CHF is normally pretty solid and not a currency that bounces around....The EURCHF chart looks like a nice steady down slope until the SCB (presumably) tries to sep in with a block..The first attemps worked for a few hours last week. Yesterday the move was shorted faster than HF trade.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:51 AM
Response to Reply #25
30. I KNEW About the Ayuh!
I did spend 29 years in New England, after all. I call it my Great Exile.

Thanks, it makes sense. The Swiss franc used to be the one currency people ran to in an inflationary crisis.
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 08:06 AM
Response to Reply #30
42. Go ahead,,,,shit on NE
I for one can use the fertilizer
:hide:
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 08:13 AM
Response to Reply #42
44. I'm Just Returning the Favor!
Edited on Wed Jun-09-10 08:14 AM by Demeter
Besides, the Mainiacs were the sanest of the lot...but oh, those NH and Mass. people!
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 08:20 AM
Response to Reply #44
50. Massholes?
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:07 AM
Response to Original message
6. Today's Reports
10:00 Wholesale Inventories Apr
Briefing.com 0.5%
Consensus 0.5%
Prior 0.4%

10:30 Crude Inventories 06/05
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior -1.90M

14:00 Fed's Beige Book Jun

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:14 AM
Response to Reply #6
12. Ahead of the Bell: Wholesale Inventories
Edited on Wed Jun-09-10 07:22 AM by ozymandius
WASHINGTON – Inventories held by wholesalers are expected to have posted a fourth-straight increase in April while sales likely went up for 13th-straight month. Both gains would be signs pointing to a sustained economic recovery.

Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect that inventories at the wholesale level rose 0.5 percent in April, slightly higher than the 0.4 percent March gain.

These analysts forecast that sales were up 0.6 percent after a 2.4 percent surge in March, a gain which was more than double what analysts had expected.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100609/ap_on_bi_ge/us_wholesale_inventories_ahead_of_the_bell



Inventories always rise at seasonal changes. So I would not regard any jumps in Summer inventory as a bona fide boost in wholesale/retail confidence.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 10:45 AM
Response to Reply #6
55. Reports In
10:00 Wholesale Inventories Apr
Actual 0.4%
Prior 0.7%
Revised from 0.4%

10:30 Crude Inventories 06/05
Actual -1.83M
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:08 AM
Response to Original message
7. Oil near $73 in Asia on hopes of rising demand
KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia – Oil prices rose to near $73 a barrel Wednesday in Asia, bolstered by hopes of rising fuel demand ahead of the release of U.S. weekly crude inventory data.

Initial inventory data by the American Petroleum Institute showed further substantial drops in crude stocks last week, signaling fuel demand growth, said Victor Shum, an energy analyst at consultancy Purvin & Gertz in Singapore.

The market will be watching to see if the more comprehensive Energy Information Administration data due to be released later Wednesday confirms the API figures, he said.

In other Nymex trading in July energy contracts, heating oil rose 0.093 cent to $1.9746 a gallon, and gasoline was up 0.61 cent to $1.9952 a gallon. Natural gas was down 2.2 cents to $4.786 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:10 AM
Response to Original message
8. Fed officials send conflicting signals on rates
CHICAGO/KANSAS CITY (Reuters) – Two top Federal Reserve officials on Tuesday offered opposing signals on the direction of interest rates, highlighting an increasingly salient split within the central bank.

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans argued high unemployment and low inflation justified holding benchmark interest rates at very low levels.

But in a forum in Kansas City, colleague Thomas Hoenig reiterated his call for the U.S. central bank to begin raising rates soon, bringing them to one percent by end of summer from their current rock-bottom range of zero-0.25 percent.

Still, the divergence does send mixed signals to financial markets, which are already vulnerable because of ongoing anxiety about Europe's debt problems.

The nervousness and its impact on interbank lending has captured the Fed's attention, with some officials saying it strengthens the case for keeping borrowing costs low.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100609/bs_nm/us_usa_fed
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:11 AM
Response to Original message
9. Fed Rate Increase Pushed to 2011 as Inflation Ebbs, Survey Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atD3QbqaK6wE&pos=6

June 9 (Bloomberg) -- Record-low inflation and prolonged unemployment mean the Federal Reserve will hold off raising interest rates until 2011, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
......
Read: There is no recovery, and Ben and Timmy ain't done giving the world to there banking buddies. And you folks that save and didn't use your house as a credit card, well that's just too bad. :grr:
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:55 AM
Response to Reply #9
32. I don't trust them.
But, wouldn't be surprised to see them let the TBTF keep sucking free dollars from the Fed and turning around and making eleventy billion dollars off of that.

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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:18 AM
Response to Original message
13. AP source: SEC putting in new market rules soon
WASHINGTON – Regulators are expected to put in place in the coming days new rules aimed at preventing a reoccurrence of last month's stunning stock market "flash crash."

The Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to approve the rules calling for U.S. stock exchanges to briefly halt trading of some stocks that mark big swings.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100608/ap_on_bi_ge/us_market_plunge_sec
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:19 AM
Response to Original message
14. Global stocks diverge, gold hits record high
LONDON (AFP) – European stocks and the euro fell on Tuesday over mounting fears about the economy, as nervous investors pushed the price of 'safe-haven' gold to a record high above 1,250 dollars an ounce.

London slid 0.82 percent, Frankfurt shed 0.80 percent and Paris lost 0.77 percent in midday deals following further sharp losses on Wall Street overnight.

The picture was different in Asia where Tokyo closed up 0.18 percent, Hong Kong added 0.56 percent and Sydney won 1.28 percent as dealers hunted for bargains following recent losses across the region.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100608/bs_afp/stocksforexworld
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:24 AM
Response to Original message
15. Tax break for money managers hangs on amid financial debate
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/07/AR2010060703685.html?nav=hcmoduletmv

For three years in a row, many of the country's wealthiest financiers have held on to what critics call an enormous tax break for Wall Street. The story is the same every time: A measure that would change the tax treatment of "carried interest" passes the House, only to hit a wall in the Senate.

It's back, this time in the jobs bill approved by the House last month. And if ever there were a time to pass a tax increase on billionaire money managers -- between public anger at Wall Street and lawmakers grasping for revenue anywhere they can find it -- this would be it.

Yet the Senate looms. Two powerful Democrats -- Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (Nev.) and Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (Mont.) -- were working Monday to soften the tax provision, to satisfy the concerns of a few senators worried about its effect on venture capitalists. Aides said Senate leaders are optimistic that they can muster the 60 votes needed to pass the change, but it could lead to problems in the House.

The provision would haul in roughly $18 billion by raising taxes on the income of people who run private-equity firms, venture-capital shops and real estate investment partnerships. Carried interest is the cut these firms make off the appreciation of their clients' portfolios.

When the firms sell long-run investments, those profits are treated as long-term capital gains, which means they're taxed at no more than 15 percent. Critics say those earnings should be taxed as ordinary income, or as much as 39.6 percent, because the partners manage other people's money, not their own.

"This is not a tax benefit that's available to doctors or teachers or firefighters," said Victor Fleischer, an associate professor of law at the University of Colorado at Boulder. "It's a tax benefit that's only available to investment managers."

Industry lobbyists won some concessions in the House bill. First, the tax increase would not take effect until 2011, when half of the carried interest would be taxed as ordinary income, with the rest still as capital gains. After 2013, 75 percent would be treated as ordinary income.

Given the lack of sympathy for Wall Street, lobbyists are playing up how the measure would affect lower-profile members of their coalition: commercial real estate investors who form partnerships to invest in strip malls and office buildings. According to the industry trade group Real Estate Roundtable, there is $6.5 trillion worth of commercial real estate in the United States. Of that amount, real estate investment partnerships own $2 trillion.

"We are in a full-scale effort to make sure that senators understand this is a Main Street tax increase," said Jeffrey DeBoer, president and chief executive of the Real Estate Roundtable. DeBoer added that raising the tax could jeopardize the value of already-struggling commercial real estate developments.

The effect on venture capital has also raised worries in Silicon Valley and among some academics, who say the higher tax could discourage the kind of investing that led to companies such as Google and Amazon.com.

"At a time when the nation is in desperate need of innovation in the life sciences and clean technology industries, how could we possibly consider penalizing those professionals who are committed to bringing these breakthroughs to market?" wrote a handful of science professors from Harvard, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and other universities in a letter to President Obama in May.

Robert Johnson, founder of Black Entertainment Television and a private-equity investor, added his voice to the mix, arguing that the rule would lead to "a rapid decline" in minority-owned private-equity firms. As the measure comes up for debate in the Senate, lobbyists say they are focused less on killing the rule altogether and more on negotiating the percentage breakdown on the taxation. They're also asking senators to pay attention to a related measure that's mostly flown below the radar, which would make it more expensive for partners to sell their own firms. The bill would tax these sales as ordinary income, rather than capital gains.

Lobbyists say some senators have been surprised to learn about this other tax. "When you talk to . . . who have been in business they basically say, 'You're joking, right?' " one industry executive said.

But Democrats want to keep the higher tax on sales of investment partnerships, arguing that financiers would not be taxed at a higher rate for any money of their own put into building their businesses. Instead, they would no longer pay a lower rate for profit earned from the investments of others.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:27 AM
Response to Reply #15
17. WSJ Adds: Showdown on Fund Taxes
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703302604575294750452297416.html?mod=dist_smartbrief

...Not all partnerships are getting hit by the Senate bill. For example, some publicly traded oil and gas partnerships avoided several of the more onerous requirements of the carried-interest provision...

.......Another little-noticed change in the Senate proposal could in 10 years effectively force publicly traded partnerships such as Blackstone and Fortress Investment Group to change their structure, and either cease being publicly traded or face taxation as corporations.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:29 AM
Response to Reply #17
18. Bloomberg Notes Senate Politics: Democrats Propose Trimming Tax Rise on Fund Managers (Update2)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601208&sid=avZTwy6TciJQ

........

Lawmakers will begin debating amendments to the plan while aiming for a final vote by early next week. Baucus expressed confidence he had the votes to fend off attempts to further alter the tax on investment fund managers’ profits, known as carried interest.

Democrats, who control the Senate with 59 votes, need the support of at least one Republican to overcome efforts to stall the measure. One potential Republican backer, Senator Susan Collins of Maine, signaled today she may be willing to back the carried interest tax increase, saying “a case can be made” for the move....
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:25 AM
Response to Original message
16. Swiss parliament votes to shield UBS data from U.S.
Almost a year after the U.S. government declared a historic victory in its campaign to penetrate Swiss bank secrecy and unmask American tax dodgers, the agonizingly negotiated August 2009 deal with the Swiss government was on the verge of collapse Tuesday.

The lower house of Switzerland's parliament voted to prevent the country from making good on its pledge to turn over the names and financial secrets of as many as 4,450 Americans who held undeclared accounts at Swiss banking giant UBS.

A Swiss court had already ruled that commitment illegal, and the Swiss Federal Council had sought the parliament's retroactive endorsement in a creative effort to salvage the deal.

If the Swiss fail to comply with the deal by the deadline in August, the U.S. government will face difficult choices. Should it reopen a legal battle, or should it renegotiate with Switzerland and settle for less?

For Switzerland, UBS and the United States, the imperiled agreement was a diplomatic way out of a high-stakes showdown.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/08/AR2010060805254.html
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:31 AM
Response to Reply #16
19. This is the thanks we get for bankrupting the US to Keep UBS Alive?
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:40 AM
Response to Reply #19
24. The Swiss government bailed them out.
Not the U.S. - as far as I can find any information going back to 2008.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:52 AM
Response to Reply #24
31. A Lot of AIG Money Went There, Though
Edited on Wed Jun-09-10 07:55 AM by Demeter
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:55 AM
Response to Reply #31
33. True.
I forgot about the AIG scam, covering for their trading losses.
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MilesColtrane Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 09:16 AM
Response to Reply #16
53. That huge gust of wind from up north?
Edited on Wed Jun-09-10 09:17 AM by MilesColtrane
That was every member of Congress breathing a big sigh of relief.

Only the dumbest ones keep their bribe cash in their freezers.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:33 AM
Response to Original message
20. "Volcker rule" at issue as reform bill nears finale
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6575PN20100608

....White House economic adviser Paul Volcker, in a letter obtained by Reuters, said he firmly opposes exemptions to his rule being sought by banks that say they make only small investments in private equity and hedge funds.

At the same time, some Senate Democrats were moving to toughen the Volcker rule by reducing the latitude given to regulators in implementing it once it becomes law -- a prospect now widely seen as all but certain, likely within weeks.

Conflict over the rule -- which threatens the profits of banking giants such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley -- came as a congressional conference committee prepared for its first meeting on merging House and Senate reform measures into the biggest bank regulation overhaul since the 1930s.

After days of behind-the-scenes talks among conferees, the committee will hold its first public meeting on Thursday, with the goal of completing its work by June 26, Representative Barney Frank, the committee chairman, said on Tuesday.

House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi will appoint Democratic members from that chamber to the joint Senate-House committee on Wednesday, Frank told reporters.

Frank and other conference committee leaders will have the difficult job of balancing Democrats' desire for a hard-hitting bill with the need to retain some support from Republicans who have generally sided with Wall Street in resisting changes.

The completed House-Senate package must win passage in each chamber before it can be sent to Obama to be signed.

FRANK, DODD VOW OPEN PROCESS

Frank said conferees will aim to work for six to eight days between Thursday and June 26. He and his Senate counterpart, Democrat Christopher Dodd, said they would make committee sessions as open as possible.

Using the Senate-passed legislation as a starting point, conference members will have to propose changes a day before they are voted on, in an effort to avoid the secret deal-making that has marked past conference committees, Frank said.

"We certainly have no reason to try to keep the public out," Frank said. "We've benefited from its presence, he added," noting that public attention so far has had the effect of making the legislation tougher on Wall Street.

Dodd said the Senate conferees, who have already been appointed, will hold an initial meeting on Wednesday.

The Volcker rule was first proposed in January by Volcker and President Barack Obama, stunning capital markets.

It would curb proprietary trading by banks for their own accounts unrelated to customers' needs; bar them from sponsoring hedge funds and private equity funds; and limit their future growth through a new cap on market share.

The Senate bill, approved last month, endorsed the rule, but subjected it to a two-year study by regulators that critics said left the door open to watering it down later.

The Volcker rule is not in the House bill, but the bill has language that would let regulators bar proprietary trading at institutions that threaten financial stability.

Senate aides said large banks are pressing for "de minimis" exemptions to the Volcker rule that would let them invest in outside funds for marketing or relationship purposes.

VOLCKER "ABSOLUTELY" OPPOSES EXEMPTIONS

"I absolutely oppose any such modification" of the Senate bill, Volcker said in his May 17 letter sent to Dodd.

"Allowing a bank to invest in a speculative fund goes against the very intent of the (Senate) bill as we seek to define those activities that are worthy of government protection," he said in the letter.

The fight over the Volcker rule was unfolding in tandem with efforts by banks to kill another proposed measure that would force them to spin off their swap-trading desks....
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:34 AM
Response to Original message
21. Europe to press ahead with tax on banks
http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE6573EE20100608

The European Union said on Tuesday it would press ahead with its own banking levy after the world's top economies failed to agree on taxing an industry seen as a main culprit behind the global economic meltdown.

Business | G20

Finance ministers finished talks on Tuesday to tackle bloated public debts with a promise to find a way of taxing banks more, days after a meeting of the Group of 20 countries ditched such an idea.

"The EU must be proactive and determined in following that up," Spanish Economy Minister Elena Salgado said of the G20 move.

Austrian Finance Minister Josef Proell, commenting on taxing financial or banking transactions, said: "The G20 was a setback. But not for Europe. We still want this and will continue to advocate it -- the sooner the better."

German Deputy Finance Minister Joerg Asmussen warned of growing impatience among voters at a lack of progress in calling bankers to heel after the crisis.

"There is nervousness in our parliaments and among the people that not enough is being done on financial reform," he said. "That is why we want to see results."

"Over and above the bank levy, we should introduce a financial transaction tax. We will try to reach a global consensus but if that is not possible, we ... should move forward in Europe."

THROWING DOWN GAUNTLET

A consensus is growing in Europe that banks should be charged for the costs of financial crises but though the EU is moving slowly towards taking such measures to cut lenders' profits, there is disagreement over how this should be done.

Last weekend, the G20 finance ministers dropped plans for a global bank levy in the face of opposition from Japan, Canada and Brazil, whose lenders sailed through the credit storm unharmed.

This throws down the gauntlet to the European Union to go it alone. Many of the EU's leaders have said they will do so, but European diplomats said on Tuesday that differences remained in their approach.

A European levy on banks could be calculated, for example, on the size of their loan book.

Britain and France would use the money for public spending, while Germany wants it ring-fenced for future crises.

A financial transaction tax is even more controversial because many believe such curbs in Europe would drive trading to other continents.

Luxembourg Finance Minister Luc Frieden said many questions remained unanswered.

"We need to discuss the goal of such a tax. Is the goal to make certain financial activity more difficult? Or to bring more money into state coffers? Or thirdly, to bring money into a reserve fund for bank rescues?"

In a draft report outlining the bloc's message to G20 leaders who meet in Toronto this month, EU officials signalled the Union could extend a levy, which may be used to wind down stricken financial groups, beyond banks to insurers.

"A levy should be applied to all banks, and possibly to other categories of financial institutions on the grounds that their failure would pose risks to financial stability and/or because they would profit from financial stability," the document said.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:35 AM
Response to Reply #21
22. G-20 pursues systemically important banks, despite abandoning levy
http://www.risk.net/risk-magazine/news/1653191/g-pursues-systemically-banks-despite-abandoning-levy

...The Financial Stability Board (FSB) is preparing a shortlist of possible measures to be presented for consideration at the next G-20 summit in Toronto on June 26–27. The list is expected to include details of possible capital or liquidity surcharges, as well as enhanced on-site supervision, and the G-20 is scheduled to decide on a definitive approach by year-end.

"We're looking at how we can improve the incentives for large institutions to take into account the externalities they create for the whole financial system. Surcharges are the easiest way to do it, but there are other means, such as enhanced and more intrusive supervision," says a European regulator close to the FSB and Basel Committee discussions on systemically important institutions.

Although a capital surcharge would be designed to increase the ability of a systemically important institution to absorb losses, and wouldn't flow into government coffers in the same way as a bank levy, it could be just as draining on bank resources. And while the G-20 has set aside plans for a levy, that won't stop some countries pushing ahead. UK chancellor of the exchequer, George Osborne, has already said he will outline proposals in his emergency budget on June 22.

In those countries where a levy is pursued unilaterally, the combination of a levy and a capital surcharge could have severe implications for bank business models, argue some observers. That has led some authorities to suggest taking more time to work out how to deal with systemically important banks, to avoid stifling them with excessively harsh measures.

"We're not hoofing this into the long grass, but there's no rush on this type of thing. 'Too big to fail' is a problem, and at the moment, there's no plan on what will happen if one of the big banks fails, beyond panic and writing a cheque. So we need a better answer, but if the response is more intrusive regulation and a fatter rulebook, that would have missed the point," says the head of financial stability at one European central bank.

His opposite number at another central bank echoes the point and says it would be foolish to draw up firm plans for a capital surcharge before the full impact of the Basel II reform proposals is known. "Clearly, the Basel III proposals are going to enhance the way banks cover their risks, so some Basel Committee members don't see any reason to have a capital surcharge for banks that would already be affected by Basel III."...
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:38 AM
Response to Original message
23. Stock Splits Go ‘Out of Fashion’ for S&P 500: Chart of the Day
SEEING AS THERE ISN'T ENOUGH PROFIT FOR ONE SHARE, LET ALONE TWO OR MORE....


REVERSE SPLITS ARE MORE LIKELY, TO NOT FALL INTO PENNY-STOCK LAND

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ahgSytRNNNVs&pos=15

Three companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index are splitting their shares this week. A decade ago, this would have been a routine number. Now it qualifies as a deluge.

The CHART OF THE DAY displays the number of splits in S&P 500 stocks each year since 1995, as compiled by S&P. Last year, AmerisourceBergen Corp. was the only company in the index to go this route. The highest total for the past 10 years was 38 splits, recorded in 2004. That’s less than half the peak of 100 in 1997.

“Traditionally, splits were used to keep stocks in a price range,” Howard Silverblatt, a senior index analyst at S&P, wrote yesterday in an e-mail. “The concern was that if prices were too high, investors, especially individuals, would not buy them.” The issue has faded and splits have gone “out of fashion,” Silverblatt wrote.

Data compiled by Bloomberg supports his conclusion. Of 17 stocks in the S&P 500 that closed at more than $100 yesterday, seven have never been split: AutoZone Inc., CME Group Inc., First Solar Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Google Inc., IntercontinentalExchange Inc. and Mastercard Inc.

Two other stocks, Intuitive Surgical Inc. and Priceline.com Inc., have only had reverse splits. These moves effectively made a single share more costly rather than cheaper, as splits do.

Express Scripts Inc. fell below the $100 threshold after yesterday’s completion of a 2-for-1 split, the first for an S&P 500 stock since AmerisourceBergen took the same action last June 15. General Mills Inc. will carry out a 2-for-1 split today, and Danaher Corp. will follow suit on June 11.

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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:41 AM
Response to Original message
26. Greece is tapping China's deep pockets to help rebuild its economy
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/08/AR2010060805312.html?hpid=topnews

....Spurred on by government incentives and bargain-basement prices, the Chinese are planning to pump hundreds of millions -- perhaps billions -- of euros into Greece even as other investors run the other way. The cornerstone of those plans is the transformation of the Mediterranean port of Piraeus into the Rotterdam of the south, creating a modern gateway linking Chinese factories with consumers across Europe and North Africa.

The port project is emerging as a bellwether for Greek plans to pay down debt and reinvent its broken economy by privatizing inefficient government-owned utilities, trains and even casinos. This week, the Chinese shipping giant Cosco assumed full control of the major container dock in Piraeus, just southwest of Athens. In return, the Chinese have pledged to spend $700 million to construct a new pier and upgrade existing docks.

The Greek government, for its part, is taking on the powerful unions in a bid to ensure that the Chinese can introduce dramatic changes to increase efficiency and productivity. That effort has ironically turned the Greek Communist Party -- which is closely aligned with the labor unions -- into the fiercest critic of China's economic march on Greece.

The Greek government is also courting China for a bevy of other projects, including a sprawling new distribution center in the industrial wastelands west of Athens, a monorail line, five-star hotels and a new maritime theme park. Greek hotels, eager to fill rooms as crisis-weary Europeans cut back on travel, are also wooing Chinese tour operators as never before. The whitewashed island of Santorini has started selling itself as the ideal spot for "Big Fat Mandarin Weddings" and has seen a surge in fairytale nuptials by wealthy Chinese as a result....

...Pattern of investing

The Chinese have plunked down billions from Angola to Peru to ensure the delivery of natural resources to feed China's red-hot economy as well as to guarantee unfettered and cost-effective shipment of its exports abroad. The investments here in Greece, analysts say, are part of China's plan to create a network of roads, pipelines, railroads and port facilities -- sort of a modern Silk Road -- to boost East-West trade.

Forced in April to turn to the European Union and International Monetary Fund for a $140 billion bailout, Greece fits perfectly into China's pattern of investing in challenging environments. China is building a new commercial maritime base in Greece at a time when other European nations remain suspicious of Chinese state investment. France, citing national security risks, recently blocked a bid by China to take over a French firm.

Alarm is also growing that China's plans will flood Europe with cheap Asian imports.

"There is growing unease in Europe at the extent and size of their trade imbalance with China," said Jonathan Wood, global issues analyst at Control Risks in London. "They are worried about finding themselves in the same situation as the United States, running a high trade deficit with China."

Yet the Greeks see Chinese investment as nothing short of a gift from the gods. The biggest question facing the troubled European Union is how nations with uncompetitive economies such as Portugal, Spain and Greece can reinvent themselves to be more on par with the successful nations of Northern Europe. Greek officials say Chinese investment is offering a glimpse into how this nation can do just that by building on its expertise in shipping.

"The Chinese want a gateway into Europe," Theodoros Pangalos, Greece's deputy prime minister, said in an interview. "They are not like these Wall Street pushing financial investments on paper. The Chinese deal in real things, in merchandise. And they will help the real economy in Greece."

Yet the privatization of the port also shows how difficult such a transition might be, particularly as Greece tries to privatize more of its economy.

35-year lease

The Chinese deal for the port began to come together in 2006, with Cosco taking transitional control of the main dock at Piraeus on Oct. 1, 2009. It came in armed with a 35-year lease and a mission to whip the notoriously inefficient container docks into shape.

The unloading of a mid-size cargo ship could take as long a week at Piraeus, days longer than at a modern, well-run port such as Rotterdam, now Europe's largest. Many in the shipping industry blamed Greek state workers. "The problem is, the workers were trained to make more money without working," said Nicolas Vernicos, owner of a shipping company whose tugboats have been subcontracted by the Chinese to operate at the port. "That is Greece's problem."

The unions at the port had been striking off and on for months to protest the Chinese arrival. Greece's Socialist government, which came to power in October, initially stood behind the unions, almost scuttling the Chinese deal.

But as Greece's economy went into a tailspin, the government did an about-face, not only welcoming the Chinese at the container dock but also entering into new talks with them for a major shipping repair hub at the port as well as a huge new distribution center.
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As part of the deal, 500 union workers at the port were gradually replaced -- allowing the Chinese to bring in cheaper subcontractors. To calm the unions, the government offered 140 workers up to $2,000 a month in pension payments, while others were promised government jobs elsewhere.

The unions and the Greek Communist Party say the Chinese are hiring subcontractors with fewer than 20 workers -- putting them just below the legal threshold in Greece to form organized unions. In addition, they say, the new workers are being pushed too hard, pointing to an incident three weeks ago when two new hires were hospitalized after being injured on the job.

"We are not only giving up national sovereignty but selling our workers out," said Nikos Xourafis, a labor leader with the Greek Port Workers Association. "That can't be the answer for Greece."
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:42 AM
Response to Reply #26
27. Greek Default Seen by Almost 75% in Poll Doubtful About Trichet
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:43 AM
Response to Original message
28. GM, Ford Accelerate Shift to Mexico Workers Making $26 a Day
This is how our corporate citizens rebuild the decimated middle class... someplace else.

June 9 (Bloomberg) -- Mexico’s share of North American auto production may rise at a quicker pace as General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler Group LLC seek out workers making less than 10 percent of what their U.S. counterparts earn.

The lower labor costs may help the U.S. companies build smaller cars profitably amid demand for fuel-efficient vehicles in the wake of last year’s recession. Mexico’s gains will come at the expense of workers in the U.S. and Canada, said Dennis DesRosiers, president of DesRosiers Automotive Consulting Inc.

“There is going to be more capacity put into North America and Mexico is going to get more than its fair share,” DesRosiers said from Richmond Hill, Ontario.

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-09/gm-ford-to-accelerate-growth-at-mexico-plants-where-workers-get-26-a-day.html
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hamerfan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:58 AM
Response to Reply #28
35. Thanks for the link, Ozy!
When someone asks me why I didn't buy a nice American car, I can show this to them and watch their head explode.
hamerfan
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 08:04 AM
Response to Reply #35
41. You're welcome.
This article makes me angry. We bailed out the auto makers to save >2 million American jobs connected to that industry. Now these companies plan to pay back the money by shifting employment to a country where the daily average is equal to about 1.3 hours of American labor. Just infuriating!
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 08:15 AM
Response to Reply #41
45. And So Obamaesque!
The least he could have done was put strings on that money.
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MilesColtrane Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 09:21 AM
Response to Reply #28
54. Too bad we spent all that money building a border wall.
It will make it harder to get into Mexico when we go in search of jobs.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:51 AM
Response to Original message
29. Paul Volcker will not back down.
Ritholtz highlights some passages at his blog with excerpts from the NY Times Review of Books.

“Has the contribution of the modern world of finance to economic growth become so critical as to support remuneration to its participants beyond any earlier experience and expectations? Does the past profitability of and the value added by the financial industry really now justify profits amounting to as much as 35 to 40 percent of all profits by all US corporations? Can the truly enormous rise in the use of derivatives, complicated options, and highly structured financial instruments really have made a parallel contribution to economic efficiency? If so, does analysis of economic growth and productivity over the past decade or so indicate visible acceleration of growth or benefits flowing down to the average American worker who even before the crisis had enjoyed no increase in real income?

There was one great growth industry. Private debt relative to GDP nearly tripled in thirty years. Credit default swaps, invented little more than a decade ago, soared at their peak to a $60 trillion market, exceeding by a large multiple the amount of the underlying credits potentially hedged against default. Add to those specifics the opacity that accompanied the enormous complexity of such transactions.

The nature and depth of the financial crisis is forcing us to reconsider some of the basic tenets of financial theory. To my way of thinking, that is both necessary and promising in pointing toward useful reform.”

Go Volcker!
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wordpix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 08:05 PM
Response to Reply #29
76. this old guy is sharp as a tack
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:57 AM
Response to Original message
34. Hungary Suffers from Foot-in-Mouth Syndrome
from Roubini's RGE email



A little less than a month ago, RGE’s Mary Stokes and Michael Hendley published an analysis reflecting on the Hungarian Fidesz party’s rise to power in the country’s April parliamentary elections. Despite generally positive market reactions to the party’s strong mandate, Stokes and Hendley urged RGE clients to take a cautious stance toward Hungary, given the Fidesz party’s “hazy policy agenda,” and noted that “Fidesz does not look wedded to continuing the previous government’s tight fiscal stance.”

Now many of their concerns have come to the fore. In early June, Hungarian markets reeled amid comments from Fidesz officials that the country’s budget deficit could balloon well beyond the 3.8% of GDP target for 2010. Even more disturbing, one top Fidesz party official suggested Hungary appeared headed for a Greek-style fiscal crisis. While the officials later backtracked, markets remain spooked. The danger is that such reckless comments are a prelude to reckless policies. The previous government, led by then Prime Minister Gordon Bajnai, worked hard to gain investor confidence, which Fidesz officials are now frittering away.

As the saying goes, “Once bitten, twice shy.” Given investor nervousness, the new government’s economic policies are likely to come under the microscope. Any perceived recklessness by the government could raise questions about debt sustainability, shake investor confidence and trigger rating downgrades. RGE does not believe that Hungary is “another Greece,” and the government is not facing any significant rollover risk this year. Nevertheless, the country’s large public debt burden (the EU’s fourth largest at almost 80% of GDP) means the government needs to make regaining fiscal credibility its top priority.

To this end, the Fidesz government went into damage control mode this week and announced an economic action plan aimed at reining in public finances. The plan includes a special bank tax, public sector spending cuts, a cut in the corporate tax rate, and a recommendation to ban foreign exchange-denominated mortgage lending. However, the devil will be in the details and in the implementation. It’s unclear that this plan will be enough for Hungary to meet this year’s 3.8% of GDP target agreed upon with the IMF. Moreover, the government has yet to announce any structural reforms, one of the expectations when Fidesz came to power.

A newly updated RGE Critical Issue examines Hungary’s fiscal position as well as analysts’ reaction to the recently announced economic action plan. But the recent turmoil affords a chance to turn back and take a deeper look at some of the longer-term concerns we have about Hungary’s government and the country’s economy.

First, clashes between Fidesz and the central bank remain a major concern. Immediately after the election, Fidesz party leader Viktor Orban went on the attack against central bank president Andras Simor for investments he had made in Cyprus, which Simor defended. Meanwhile, party officials criticized the central bank for exacerbating the country’s downturn by not cutting rates fast enough. Party officials do not appear overly concerned about political interference in central bank affairs, which does not bode well for the new government’s ability to retain investor confidence.

Second, the government has added to problems by failing to spell out a clear policy agenda. Immediately after the election, the general consensus was that Fidesz would not significantly loosen fiscal policy because it would spook markets and raise borrowing costs. However, what is economically rational is not always politically rational. Fidesz politicians have repeatedly stated, without giving many specifics, that their overarching goal is jumpstarting economic growth, which is what the party promised voters in the run-up to the April election. Failing to deliver on that promise could alienate supporters, and some have interpreted officials’ recent ill-advised comments as a way of laying the groundwork domestically to justify not meeting electoral promises. What is most concerning is the apparent disconnect among officials, based on recent comments, and the new government’s lack of a cohesive message.

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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:59 AM
Response to Original message
36. Foxconn to scrap ‘factory town’ model


Head of world’s largest contract manufacturer announces fundamental changes to the way it relates to its workers by abandoning the model of running big ”factory towns”
Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/BLH300/ZBAF86/OFBYP/KELBRK/LQRIV8/PJ/t

NO DOUBT COMPLETE WITH "COMPANY STORE"
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 08:18 AM
Response to Reply #36
49. The Chinese worker is slowly awakening
And Hu is letting it happen (Strikes at Honda/etc).

That endless supply of cheap labor may have it's limits after all.

Who knows :shrug: maybe the PRC figures they are going to need domestic consumption to keep the lights burning as the rest of world grows dim.
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bread_and_roses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 09:00 AM
Response to Reply #36
52. you know, not long ago I made a reference to "the company store" and the young person I was talking
to had no idea what the phrase meant. Such is the state of labor education in our schools. I can remember my Dad singing the song...'cause I owe my soul to the Company store..."

We sure knew what it meant.
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TalkingDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 11:57 AM
Response to Reply #52
61. Yeah, that's all we need. Educated slaves.
What did you learn about Helen Keller in school? What did you learn about her from watching those insipid TV dramas?

Did you know she was a Union Organizer (helping to found the ACLU)? That she spoke for and to striking workers? That she was a declared socialist?

Instead we get the Republican wet dream of Helen Keller: A severely disabled person who, through her own hard work, grit and determination, became self-sufficient; even famous. Why screw up a perfectly good Horatio Alger story with her silly little personal views?

I was working a practicum at a middle school once and in looking over lesson plans for history lesson, saw a description of the Bolshevik uprising.

Let me put it to you this way....it didn't discuss the Bolsheviks in a positive light. It didn't explain that whole towns were literally starving to death while the Romanovs stripped them of the fruits of their labor and lived in luxury.

Instead it painted them as crazy malcontents.

So, if we tell people the truth of history, that everything they know is wrong; some poor schmucks are going to take those lessons to heart. As the rustic farmer explained, regarding his sheep Harold, to the vacationing city gent: "He's that most dangerous of animals, a clever sheep" Why? Because Harold was trying to teach the other sheep to fly and potentially gain their freedom.

City Gent: Well why don't you just get rid of Harold?
Rustic: Because of the enormous commercial possibilities should he succeed


Besides, we all know that history is written by the victorious.
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 01:32 PM
Response to Reply #61
64. And Albert Einstein was a card carrying member......
of the American Federation of Teachers. You don't hear about that either. While I may not be as smart in physics as he was-I am smart enough to be an AFT member.
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mbperrin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 01:23 PM
Response to Reply #52
63. I teach economics in high school, and mine know.
But my background is a bit odd. My grandfather was an organizer for the IWW in the oilfields out here in the 30s, and my dad helped organize the postal worker's union in the 60s.

Jake was left for dead at the edge of town in 1934 after meeting with some company goons. He spent 4 years flat on his back in bed recovering and then went right back to it. He was trouble. I forgot to mention that he came here from Germany in 1902, so he was a foreign troublemaker as well!

So my students get introduced to scabs, strikes, speedups, company stores, Pinkertons, Wackenhuts, and the Baldwin-Felts detective agency. I do get some suspicious looks from some of my colleagues, but the kids seem to like it.
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tclambert Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 04:01 PM
Response to Reply #52
72. That line is from the song "16 tons"
Edited on Wed Jun-09-10 04:06 PM by tclambert
"You load sixteen tons, 'n what do ya get?
Another day older and deeper in debt.
Saint Peter, don'tcha call me, 'cause I can't go;
I owe my soul to the company store."

Merle Travis first recorded it in 1946. Tennessee Ernie Ford had a gigantic hit with it in 1955. It was used in the movie Joe Versus the Volcano.

Merle Travis: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5pfVvqLM_e4

Tennessee Ernie Ford: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Joo90ZWrUkU

Johnny Cash: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tfp2O9ADwGk&feature=related

Dennis Kucinich: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGmYhTYLbno
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 05:07 PM
Response to Reply #72
74. Who knew Kucinich could sing?

That was great!


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bread_and_roses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 07:08 PM
Response to Reply #72
75. thanks t c - i do remember that lyric, but couldn't remember name of song (n/t)
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 08:00 AM
Response to Original message
37. Report: Revolving Door Spins Quickly Between Congress, Wall Street
WASHINGTON -- Organizations in the financial services sector have deployed at least 1,447 former federal employees to lobby Congress and federal agencies since the beginning of 2009, according to a joint analysis of federal disclosure records and other data released today by Public Citizen and the Center for Responsive Politics.

This small army of registered financial services sector lobbyists includes at least 73 former members of Congress, of whom 17 served on the banking committees of either the U.S. House of Representatives or the Senate. At least 66 industry lobbyists worked for these committees as staffers, while 82 additional lobbyists once worked for congressional members who currently serve on these key committees.

“Wall Street hires former members of Congress and their staff for a reason," said David Arkush, director of Public Citizen’s Congress Watch division. "These people are influential because they have personal relationships with current members and staff. It’s hard to say no to your friends, but that’s what Congress needs to do. Listening to them would result in a bill that would fail to get the job done and would disappoint the American people."

http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2010/06/report-revolving-door-spins-quickly.html



We really need publicly financed elections and barriers against lobbying for former congressional staffers.
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wordpix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 08:11 PM
Response to Reply #37
77. also spins quickly between BigOil execs & MMS, Dept of Interior, DOE
same thing---those with Congressional connections get plum exec jobs in the industry and then swing them out the door to work as "regulators" who are really plants to help the industry. :puke:
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 08:00 AM
Response to Original message
38. Merkel spells out €80bn spending cuts


Drastic public spending cuts totalling more than €80bn are unveiled, combined with up to 15,000 job cuts in the public sector, as part of a sweeping austerity package
Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/DHGUVV/V10ELS/WH2F8/YH77I6/3O2BD8/QR/t

I NEVER THOUGHT ANGELA HAD A DEATH WISH--MAYBE THE LAYING OF HANDS BY W TURNED HER.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 08:02 AM
Response to Original message
39. Deal on mechanism for eurozone rescue package


Finance ministers from the 16 eurozone countries have agreed on the key mechanism by which they will operate the landmark €750bn stabilisation facility for the eurozone’s most vulnerable members
Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/DHGUVV/V10ELS/WH2F8/YH77I6/6V76Q7/QR/t
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 08:03 AM
Response to Original message
40.  Eight top managers convicted over Bhopal disaster

A court in Bhopal convicts one of the country's top industrialists and seven others of criminal negligence over the devastating gas leak that killed thousands of people more than 25 years ago
Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/DHGUVV/V10ELS/WH2F8/YH77I6/S3LJ2B/QR/t
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 08:10 AM
Response to Original message
43. Gravity Defying Economics The misguided optimism of modern day economists
http://dailyreckoning.com/the-misguided-optimism-of-modern-day-economists/


The world economy is airing its dirty laundry...and America is the "least dirty shirt" in the pile. That's how Bill Gross, manager of the world's largest bond fund, sees the state of world's largest economy.

Mr. Gross is being polite. We'd say the US looks more like the least dirty pair of undergarments...after a very scary opening scene of a very long horror movie. Moreover, as reckoners who have children will surely attest, it's much harder to clean dirty cloths than it is to dirty clean ones. That truism is especially so when the kids wearing the clothes enjoy playing in the mud, as kids tend to do. Unfortunately for the voting (and non-voting) citizens of the world, their elected (and unelected) officials like nothing more than a little roll in the dirt before recess.

Mr. Gross' comments came after a Bloomberg survey concluded that America is now the preferred capital destination for worldwide investors. According to the study, almost 4 in 10 investors surveyed believed the United States would yield the greatest opportunities over the coming year, double the percentage from only 6 months ago. Those same investors rated Brazil as the second most promising market (29%), with China and India rounding out the top four, respectively.

The story makes for some enticing headline fodder...but it's not all "whiter whites and brighter colors."

The same survey also found that "Forty-two percent of investors now believe the world economy is deteriorating, double the 21 percent who thought so in January. US investors were the most pessimistic about the global economy, with 58 percent saying it is getting worse versus 31 percent of Europeans and 35 percent of Asians. Europeans were the most pessimistic about their own region, with 40 percent viewing it as deteriorating; 21 percent of US investors viewed their home region negatively, while 9 percent in Asia felt that way."

But wait a minute! Aren't the Europeans rioting in the streets? How can they be more optimistic than their American comrades? Aren't the Greeks torching buildings? Aren't the Spaniards up in arms? Didn't the Hungarian government just reveal that the economy there was in a "very grave situation"? Didn't David Cameron, the new British PM, just announce that the problems in Ol' Blighty were "worse than we thought"? And that's to say nothing of the Italians and the Irish, the Slovenians, Romanians and Portuguese. And these folk are almost twice as positive as the Americans? Where's their spirit of doom and gloom?

Could it be that American investors are simply better informed than those across the pond? Or could it be that people simply don't know what they're talking about? Your editor has no clue. Many an overconfident man was knocked out in the first round...and sentiments don't pay the bills.

We do know, however, that nobody can spend his or her way to prosperity, whether they are an individual investor, a Fortune 500 company or a sovereign state with a Keynesian enthusiast at the helm. Debts must eventually be repaid...or defaulted on. It's a case of "what goes up..."

But no matter how solid the laws of gravity may be, there will always be men who try to subvert them. Skydivers refer to such men as "casualties." Politicians refer to them as modern day "economists."

Ben Bernanke is one such man. When asked yesterday whether the US economy would likely suffer a "double dip recession" Bernanke replied, "My best guess is we'll have a continued recovery it won't feel terrific."

As near as we can tell, Mr. Bernanke has missed the point entirely. He assumes that the economy is recovering. It is not. He sees a renewed enthusiasm among consumers (which is, in itself, dubious at best and waning at worst) as bricks on the road to the Land of Milk and Honey.

"So far this year the news is pretty good," he said. "We've seen consumers coming back."

But consumers are not coming back, at least not in any kind of sustainable manner. Wages are going down. Hours are being cut. Credit is contracting. And even if they were coming back, what on earth are they spending? They have no money! Secondly, the private debts of yore have not been repaid; they have merely been collectivized and dumped on to the public books. They are still the same debts as they always were, only now they are much bigger, threatening to drag entire nations asunder instead of poorly managed private institutions.

This trend of debt-collectivization has driven spendthrift central governments to what Anthony Crescenzi, an investor at Bill Gross' Pacific Investment Management Co., refers to as the "Keynesian endpoint."

"Time, devaluations, and debt restructurings might be the only way out for many nations," Crescenzi wrote in an e-mailed note titled "Keynesian Endpoint." Debt-fueled spending programs aimed at combating the global financial crisis of 2008 are among policy tools now "being seen as a magic elixir that has morphed into poison."

As our Reckoner-in-Chief, Bill Bonner, tirelessly reminds readers, we are in the throes of the Great Correction. There is not a shade of recovery in the mix. Firstly, the jobs situation is worsening, as is evident to anyone who bothers taking more than a cursory glance at Friday's woeful employment report, on which Bill has more thoughts below. Secondly, the non-recovery in housing is about to get a whole lot more non-recovering.
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 08:33 AM
Response to Reply #43
51. The Park Street episode at the bank comes to mind
Here's the receipt for your deposit....oops, your money is gone....move along, this line is for bank customers only. (or something like that)
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Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 12:01 PM
Response to Reply #51
62. South Park.
I loved the repeat episode last night, where they sprung Shamu from captivity, and sent him "home" to the moon.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 08:15 AM
Response to Original message
46. Nigerian spam email of the week
From: Dudley Caruthers Esq (Barrister at Law)

Subject: BP Related Agreement Entitlement

E-mail:

Dear Friend

I am the private solicitor for Mr Tony Hayward, the esteemed Chairman and Chief executive of British Petroleum. My client has various personal and family related holdings of BP stock and options. Due to his faithful long standing service to BP the total value of his holdings amounts to in excess of 100m pounds sterling. Mr Heywood is a British citizen but it has been my sorrowful duty to advise him that his personal and family wealth is at great risk of being wrongfully confiscated by US authorities acting extra-territorially under special powers authorised by the US government and with the secret consent of a supine UK political and legal establishment.

Mr Heywood is also at great risk of losing his personal liberty and becoming another victim of the long reach of the politicised USA legal system in the same way that was meted out to other British subjects including, most egregiously, the 3 bankers from Natwest (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NatWest_Three). Unfortunately I am not able to advise or assist him in this regard as my expertise lies in the structuring of executive compensation schemes and the management of private endowments; but I am horrified at the witch hunt being perpetrated on my client by the Obama administration and its agencies and I will do all that I can to safeguard my client's financial position.

I am reaching out to you as it has become clear that Mr Hayward's holdings must be liquidated and held in trust for the benefit of himself and his family beyond USA or UK legal jurisdiction. Exercise of his options and liquidation of his stock is now complete but it has proven necessary to assign title to the ensuing 100m pounds of cash to a person such as yourself who resides in a non recognised tax haven country and where there is a sound basis for UK and USA authorities to recognise the legal validity of local agreements. The taxation and legal recognition agreements between your jurisdiction of Australia and those of UK and USA present a unique opportunity to protect these assets whilst providing you with a benefit in accordance with your key role. I am a keen reader of your blog and greatly admire your economic and political acumen. I immediately recognised that, at this hour of great urgency and risk to my client, you are the man who is capable of securing protection of the Hayward estate.

(...)

Transfer of the cash will only occur to you upon you executing the correct documents which are (i) the force majeure beneficiary transfer agreement (ii) a statutory declaration that the force majeure beneficiary transfer agreement was properly entered into as a verbal agreement in January 2002 and (iii) details of your Australian bank account including account name, password and account number and most critically an agreement between yourself and myself as trustee for Hayward related entities granting the trustee the right to claw back 50% (40m pounds) of the transfer at any time and requiring you to escrow the 40m pounds in a separate account.

http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2010/06/nigerian-spam-email-of-week.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BronteCapital+%28Bronte+Capital%29

What could possibly go wrong? :shrug:
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 01:53 PM
Response to Reply #46
65. Will a Swiss account do??????
:spray::eyes:
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 08:16 AM
Response to Original message
47. Here’s Why China Hasn’t Bought 191 Tons of IMF Gold
http://dailyreckoning.com/heres-why-china-hasnt-bought-191-tons-of-imf-gold/

After India bought 200 tons of gold from the IMF last November it seemed obvious to most prognosticators that China would be next up to bat. That hasn’t turned out to be the case. Yesterday, a new perspective emerged to take a stab at answering this yellow metal riddle.

From Commodity Online:

“David Lew, a keen gold market follower and bullion analyst, says there are several reasons why China is not buying gold from IMF, though there have been rumors that the Chinese central bank was planning to buy the entire 191.3 tonnes of gold from IMF.

“First and foremost is the fact that gold market in the world will turn into an immediate playground of speculation and excessive volatility if China is to buy gold from IMF. ‘Even rumors that China was buying IMF gold two months back turned the bullion market highly volatile,’ points out Lew.

“China has a relatively small position as far as gold reserves are concerned. The Chinese central bank–the People’s Bank of China–holds only 1,054 tons of gold, amounting to just 1.2% of the country’s gross domestic product. The large chunk of China’s reserves–around 70%–are held in US dollars.

“Secondly, Lew says the fact that China is not jumping in to buy IMF gold does not mean that the country is not interested in amassing gold reserves. ‘It looks China is buying gold these days from gold mines, rather than gold bullion. Clearly, China wants to balance its gold reserve position very carefully and meticulously,’ he pointed out.

“Lew feels that another reason for China not buying the IMF gold is that in doing so, the Chinese currency Yuan would appreciate. ‘China does not want its currency to appreciate by buying gold from IMF,’ Lew added.”

Lew highlights above that China has to be careful about putting its enormous reserves into any particular asset… except for Treasuries, of course. Almost every month, China continues to invest heavily in dollar-denominated assets in order to maintain the yuan’s dollar peg.

Also, China is the world’s leading producer of gold… ahead of even South Africa. So if China’s central bank chooses to buy gold it has no need to venture so far afield as to go knocking on the doors of the IMF’s DC headquarters. It can potentially take delivery without so much as leaving its own doorstep.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 08:17 AM
Response to Reply #47
48. China’s Housing Market Worse Than US Before Subprime Collapse
http://dailyreckoning.com/chinas-housing-market-worse-than-us-before-subprime-collapse/

....Li Daokui, of the central bank’s monetary policy committee, has publicly stated to China’s State Council that their nation’s housing market is deeply troubled in way that could cause profoundly negative financial and social outcomes.

From the AFP:

“‘The housing market problem in China is actually much, much more fundamental, much bigger than the housing market problem in the US and UK before your financial crisis,’ said Li Daokui, a member of the bank’s monetary policy committee.

“‘It is more than (just) a bubble problem,’ he told the Financial Times in an interview published Tuesday. The property market in the United States collapsed as too many people were unable to repay their high-risk, or sub-prime mortgages, leading to a credit crunch in which thousands lost their homes and lending dried up…

“…He warned the high cost of housing could hamper future growth by slowing urbanisation. Rising prices were also a potential political flashpoint, especially among younger people who felt locked out of having their own home. ‘When prices go up, many people, especially young people, become very anxious,’ he said. ‘It is a social problem.’”

Chinese authorities have been looking at a variety of avenues to cool the potentially overheating market. A property tax will be tested in key areas like Beijing and Shanghai, and other new restrictions on home sales have been introduced. The real estate market is structured quite differently in China, but a collapse could be just as severe for its financial system, and possibly even worse in terms of social upheaval....
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 10:46 AM
Response to Original message
56. Minnesota: In jail for being in debt

6/9/10 In jail for being in debt
You committed no crime, but an officer is knocking on your door. More Minnesotans are surprised to find themselves being locked up over debts.
By CHRIS SERRES and GLENN HOWATT , Star Tribune staff writers

As a sheriff's deputy dumped the contents of Joy Uhlmeyer's purse into a sealed bag, she begged to know why she had just been arrested while driving home to Richfield after an Easter visit with her elderly mother.

No one had an answer. Uhlmeyer spent a sleepless night in a frigid Anoka County holding cell, her hands tucked under her armpits for warmth. Then, handcuffed in a squad car, she was taken to downtown Minneapolis for booking. Finally, after 16 hours in limbo, jail officials fingerprinted Uhlmeyer and explained her offense -- missing a court hearing over an unpaid debt. "They have no right to do this to me," said the 57-year-old patient care advocate, her voice as soft as a whisper. "Not for a stupid credit card."

It's not a crime to owe money, and debtors' prisons were abolished in the United States in the 19th century. But people are routinely being thrown in jail for failing to pay debts. In Minnesota, which has some of the most creditor-friendly laws in the country, the use of arrest warrants against debtors has jumped 60 percent over the past four years, with 845 cases in 2009, a Star Tribune analysis of state court data has found.

Not every warrant results in an arrest, but in Minnesota many debtors spend up to 48 hours in cells with criminals. Consumer attorneys say such arrests are increasing in many states, including Arkansas, Arizona and Washington, driven by a bad economy, high consumer debt and a growing industry that buys bad debts and employs every means available to collect.

Whether a debtor is locked up depends largely on where the person lives, because enforcement is inconsistent from state to state, and even county to county.

In Illinois and southwest Indiana, some judges jail debtors for missing court-ordered debt payments. In extreme cases, people stay in jail until they raise a minimum payment. In January, a judge sentenced a Kenney, Ill., man "to indefinite incarceration" until he came up with $300 toward a lumber yard debt.

more...
http://www.startribune.com/local/95692619.html
:(

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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 10:51 AM
Response to Reply #56
58. yeah, because being in jail makes it SO much easier to raise money!
:banghead:

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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 11:03 AM
Response to Reply #58
59. Well, cities need money too
Edited on Wed Jun-09-10 11:14 AM by DemReadingDU
Don't cities collect money from putting people in the jail?

Edit: Who pays the costs of being in jail?
The jailed person? Taxpayers?




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happyslug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 09:22 PM
Response to Reply #59
79. According to the article the taxpayers
n/t
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 11:18 AM
Response to Reply #56
60. How medieval!
Edited on Wed Jun-09-10 11:26 AM by ozymandius
This is a modern style debtor's prison. I've read "The History of American Law" by Lawrence Friedman. Events like this, according to his relation of period accounts, were the scourge of the early days of our republic. Eventually, debtor revolts which included mobs forcefully confronting judges, lawyers (for the plaintiff) and creditors brought an end to the draconian treatment of debtors.

May we need such heated confrontations again?
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happyslug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 09:21 PM
Response to Reply #56
78. Arrest for Debt is still the law in many states, Fortunately PA is NOT one of them
Pennsylvania had the decency to abolish arrest for debt since at least 1842 (And I suspect 1820 but can NOT find a cite for the 1820 date), some other states have done similar things in regard to arrest for debt. Now if a judge (NOT a Justice of the Peace or similar local Judaical officer) can issue an order for you to pay a debt and hold you in contempt if it is NOT paid, but that is only done in extraordinary cases when the Judge after a full hearing thinks such an order is needed (and even then of questionable legality in Pennsylvania given its abolishment of arrest for debt).

This is in the Pennsylvania Constitution "Declaration of Rights" (Pennsylvania's Bills of Rights, The following is in the present Pennsylvania Constitution and has been in the Constitution of Pennsylvania verbatim since 1792):

Section 16. Insolvent Debtors
The person of a debtor, where there is not strong presumption of fraud, shall not be continued in prison after delivering up his estate for the benefit of his creditors in such manner as shall be prescribed by law.


http://www.constitutionpartypa.com/PA%20Constitution/PA%20Constitution%201968.pdf

The Actual State Statute:

42 Pa.C.S.A. § 5108

(a) Constitutional restriction.--The person of a debtor, where there is not strong presumption of fraud, shall not be continued in prison after delivering up his estate for the benefit of his creditors in such manner as shall be provided or prescribed by law.

(b) Statutory restriction.--Except in an action for fines and penalties, or as punishment for contempt, or to prevent departure from the Commonwealth, a defendant may not be arrested in any civil matter.


Sorry, I do NOT have a site, Pennsylvania was the last state to put its statute on line, and then only through a limited access through West. In the 1800s Pennsylvania was one of the leaders for reform of the laws in this country, it is not anymore. The above act was passed in 1978 as part of the Codification project to form Pennsylvania law into a code. Parts of Pennsylvania Statute have been made into Pennsylvania Consolidated Statutes referred to as Pennsylvania Consolidated Statutes. or P.C.S. for Short), and some have NOT been (Referred to as Pennsylvania Statutes, West has made an un-official codification of those statues and are referred to a Purdon's Statutes or P.S for short).

Anyway, the Legislative Act codified in 1978 had been originally was passed in 1842, I suspect modifying a previous 1820 act. In simple terms arrest for Debt in NOT permitted in Pennsylvania. It is permitted in many other states.
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Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 02:19 PM
Response to Original message
66. 3:15pm Dow turns red for the day. BP tanking...
BP down 16% as of now.
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 02:55 PM
Response to Reply #66
67. roller coaster day

up +100, now down -60

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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 02:56 PM
Response to Original message
68. 3:50pm - Damn. I thought I could....
Dow 9,882 -58 -0.58%
Nasdaq 2,156 -14 -0.66%
S&P 500 1,054 -8 -0.76%

GlobalDow 1,715 +3 +0.17%
Gold 1,235 +6 +0.45%
Oil 73.81 +1.82 +2.53%

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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 04:19 PM
Response to Reply #68
73. The blather gives some clues.
4:30 pm : Strong buying in the first part of the session saw the S&P 500 climb more than 1%, but once gains started to fade sellers stepped in to hand stocks a marked loss.

The stock market extended its advance from the prior session on the back of broad-based buying this morning. All 10 sectors in the S&P 500 made their way to higher ground and the Dow even made its way back above 10,000. However, the positive tone proved fleeting.

Energy stocks had been one of the best performers. The sector was up more than 2% at its high, but it buckled to close with a 1.3% loss, which is worse than any other sector. BP Plc (BP 29.20, -5.48) remained in focus as it closed at its lowest level since 1996 amid concerns about the safety of the company's dividend.

Higher oil prices couldn't keep sellers from piling on to the sector -- contracts closed pit trade with oil priced 3.3% higher at $74.38 per barrel. The gain move was helped by a weekly inventory report that showed a larger-than-expected draw of 1.83 million barrels when a draw of 900,000 barrels had been expected.

A pullback by the euro only added to the afternoon's selling effort. The euro had been as high as $1.207, but it was down to $1.198 with a fractional gain as trade drew to a close.

All 10 major sectors gave up their gains, but retailers managed to make out with a fractional gain. Target (TGT 52.37, -0.05) couldn't quite keep out of the red, though. Its slip came despite news that it increased its quarterly dividend by 47% to $0.25 per share.

Dow component Caterpillar (CAT 56.81, +0.20) also announced a dividend increase, which will take the stock's quarterly dividend to $0.44 per share from $0.42 per share.

Economic data was limited to a wholesale inventory report for April that showed a 0.4% increase in inventories. The report did nothing for stocks.

Fed Chairman Bernanke testified before the House Budget Committee this morning, but he offered no new insight on economic conditions.

The Fed's latest Beige Book was also out today. It stated that economic activity continues to improve across all 12 Fed districts, but the pace of recovery remains moderate.


An auction of the 10-year Treasury Notes drew a strong bid-to-cover of 3.2 and produced a yield of 3.24%. The results didn't have much of an immediate impact on Treasuries, but with the stock market's afternoon slide the benchmark 10-year Note was able to eke out a fractional gain.
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Festivito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 03:52 PM
Response to Original message
69. Debt: 06/07/2010 13,052,204,878,286.76 (UP 1,616,868,634.14) (Mon)
(Up a little. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,577,579,940,852.39 + 4,474,624,937,434.37
UP 55,958,918.33 + UP 1,560,909,715.81

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,231.78 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.70, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,427,193 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,181.83.
A family of three owes $126,545.49. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is 6,163,182,682.86.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,108,788,455.24.
The average for the last 31 days would be 3,976,246,892.17.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 170 reports in 250 days of FY2010 averaging 6.72B$ per report, 4.57B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 958 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.4 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
06/07/2010 13,052,204,878,286.76 BHO (UP 2,425,327,829,373.68 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,142,375,874,775.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,667,868,777,171.50 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
05/14/2010 -000,440,383,687.55 ---
05/18/2010 +000,360,533,772.20 ------------******** Tue
05/19/2010 +000,208,812,715.15 ------------********
05/20/2010 +010,103,129,083.31 ------------**********
05/21/2010 +000,263,393,058.28 ------------********
05/24/2010 +000,371,674,396.55 ------------******** Mon
05/25/2010 +000,937,216,055.27 ------------********
05/26/2010 +001,057,190,066.84 ------------*********
05/27/2010 +015,241,764,354.27 ------------**********
05/28/2010 -000,294,414,430.12 ---
06/01/2010 +078,359,726,143.31 ------------********** Tue
06/02/2010 +000,523,171,733.61 ------------********
06/03/2010 +004,027,515,403.86 ------------*********
06/04/2010 +000,194,136,067.09 ------------********
06/07/2010 +000,055,958,918.33 ------------******* Mon

110,969,423,650.40 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4417776&mesg_id=4417849
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Festivito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 03:55 PM
Response to Reply #69
70. Debt: 06/08/2010 13,056,957,049,453.42 (UP 4,752,171,166.66) (Tue)
(Down a little. Could not get into DU this morning. The hosting company seems to have had issues this morning. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,577,518,574,552.20 + 4,479,438,474,901.22
DOWN 61,366,300.19 + UP 4,813,537,466.85

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,231.71 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.70, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,433,839 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,196.28.
A family of three owes $126,588.84. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 6,095,991,658.28.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,267,194,160.80.
The average for the last 32 days would be 4,000,494,525.75.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 171 reports in 251 days of FY2010 averaging 6.71B$ per report, 4.57B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 957 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.4 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
06/08/2010 13,056,957,049,453.42 BHO (UP 2,430,080,000,540.34 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,147,128,045,941.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,668,134,409,437.14 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
05/18/2010 +000,360,533,772.20 ------------******** Tue
05/19/2010 +000,208,812,715.15 ------------********
05/20/2010 +010,103,129,083.31 ------------**********
05/21/2010 +000,263,393,058.28 ------------********
05/24/2010 +000,371,674,396.55 ------------******** Mon
05/25/2010 +000,937,216,055.27 ------------********
05/26/2010 +001,057,190,066.84 ------------*********
05/27/2010 +015,241,764,354.27 ------------**********
05/28/2010 -000,294,414,430.12 ---
06/01/2010 +078,359,726,143.31 ------------********** Tue
06/02/2010 +000,523,171,733.61 ------------********
06/03/2010 +004,027,515,403.86 ------------*********
06/04/2010 +000,194,136,067.09 ------------********
06/07/2010 +000,055,958,918.33 ------------******* Mon
06/08/2010 -000,061,366,300.19 ----

111,348,441,037.76 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4419350&mesg_id=4420352
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-10 04:00 PM
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71. EUR under $1.20.
wow.
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