CDC: About 1 in 6 Americans Have Had Swine Flu

[steven johnson]

Source: Associated Press

Swine flu has sickened about 50 million Americans, and killed about 10,000, according to new estimates released by federal health officials on Thursday.

That means about 1 in 6 Americans have had the illness, said Dr. Thomas Frieden, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The estimates are for the first seven months of the pandemic, from April through mid-November. The new numbers are a big jump from previous estimates, which said swine flu had sickened 22 million Americans and killed about 4,000 through mid-October.

The CDC also estimates that nearly 200,000 people were hospitalized through mid-November -- about the same amount that occurs normally in an entire winter flu season.



Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2009/12/10/health/AP-US-MED-Swine-Flu.html

---

The swine flu has been much harder on younger healthier people in the US than the usual winter flu. It has been much harder on Native American and Eskimos than in the past. The largest proportion of reported swine flu hospitalizations and deaths have been in the non-elderly, three-quarters of the deaths were people ages 18 to 64. About 80 percent of those deaths were in people ages 20 through 59, and 45 percent were obese.

Apparently the second wave of swine flu has peaked but there is concern that if not enough people get immunized, there won't be enough herd immunity to prevent a third wave of flu and the subsequent deaths.

[geckosfeet]

1. Not where I live. Unless it is grossly undiagnosed.

[onehandle]

8. My doctor says that regular flu and colds have been widely wrongly diagnosed as H1N1. nt

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

22. This is in Atlanta, where you say H1N1 doesn't exist?

[onehandle]

26. Yes. That's exactly what I said.

I said that H1N1 doesn't exist in Atlanta. You quoted me exactly.

:eyes:

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

29. So H1N1 has been a problem in Atlanta? Thanks for clearing that up.

[CreekDog]

32. wow you rely on your doctor's opinion to come up with a conclusion he/she wouldn't even support

just wow. :wtf:

[onehandle]

36. I was kidding about that conclusion.

Thus the rolling eyes.

The other poster put those words in my mouth.

[CreekDog]

41. ok

:hi:

[onehandle]

42. No prob.

Next time I'll use the sarcasm tag too.

:)

[CreekDog]

43. well, let's not do anything rash

:sarcasm: *-1

:rofl: :hi:

[N_E_1 for Tennis]

2. Not here also! Michigan

this is just bs. Get the shot and ........ what you get the flu?
wash your hands, take echinacea get on with life, wash your hands.
I'm in the cleaning biz, get into peoples houses every day.
in 25 years have never had the flu.
WASH YOUR HANDS.

Swine flu and the "shots" are just more fear mongering.

Michigan.

[Mithreal]

9. Your DNA and environment are identical to everyone else's right?

I agree on using natural products and washing hands.

[kestrel91316]

11. Wrong. Flu shots are VERY effective against the strains they are designed for.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

13. I'm sorry that's just uninformed. Vaccines are an effective tool against many infectious diseases.

[CreekDog]

27. you aren't a scientist or a doctor

i'm willing to bet lots on that.

[Warpy]

3. It's hit really hard here in NM

with much more than 1/6 being infected, so far. It's spread like wildfire through schools, especially, where it's been making the rounds since late September.

This is a low population state but I'll bet we're skewing the percentage upward.

[CreekDog]

28. I think we are getting clobbered here in CA

And I've been sick as a dog this week. Not sure if H1N1, although the coughing was horrendous and the fever came on like lightning (to almost 103 in 1 hr).

[stray cat]

4. In NY definitely

[Fearless]

5. Not it.

[BadgerKid]

6. No speculation of third wave in article.

Who's concerned exactly?

People become immune from having had it or getting vaccinated. Once enough people are immune, it would make sense the rate of spreading would slow down.

[kestrel91316]

12. In the CDC press conference today (they have a weekly H1N1 PC)

Dr whatshisname was saying how they honestly don't know if there will be a third wave or not. They just have to keep vaccinating and hope enough are immune from that and actual infection that the virus can no longer propagate through the population.

IMHO, 1 in 6 isn't enough herd immunity to stop it. And many of those 1 in 6 may not have had the H1N1 flu, but something else.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

18. It would be nice to know the true numbers.

Using Tamiflu and Relenza prophylactically will also complicate the estimates.

[CreekDog]

30. because not that many are getting the H1N1 vaccine

heck, even the high risk groups can't seem to get the vaccine all the time.

oh, and also knuckleheads who don't have the medical knowledge to brush my cat are scaring people about the dangers of a vaccine they don't and won't try to understand.

[kestrel91316]

40. Enough are getting it that supplies are still getting snapped up as quick as

the manufacturers can ship it out.

I am glad that so many will have immunity prior to the Christmas travel period.

[onehandle]

7. Good God. I don't know a single person in Atlanta that has had it.

Hmm...

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

16. So you think what Obama has ordered the CDC to stir up fear to help the drug companies?

Let's hear your latest conspiracy theory. They are always entertaining.

[Mojorabbit]

25. Well ten thousand people have died since April in the US

so I imagine a much larger number have been hospitalized and even more have had a mild case...And flu season is still on going.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/11/health/11flu.html?_r=2&hp
Swine Flu Death Toll at 10,000 Since April


Article Tools Sponsored By
By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr.
Published: December 10, 2009

Federal health officials said Thursday that almost 10,000 people had died of swine flu since April, a significant jump from mortality numbers released last month.

Times Topics: Swine Flu

A month ago, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that only about 4,000 had died.

Officials also said that 50 million Americans, one sixth of the country, had caught the disease, and that 213,000 people had been sick enough to be hospitalized.

Several flu experts said they were not shocked by the sudden jump because the new figures were as of Nov. 14, when this fall’s wave of swine flu cases was reaching its peak.

The previous estimate of 4,000 deaths, issued last month, was only through mid-October. By next month, deaths should not have risen quite as abruptly because the fall wave is tapering off and hospitals have fewer people in intensive care, experts said.

“I’m not surprised,” said Lone Simonsen, an epidemiologist at George Washington University’s School of Public Health. “This includes most of the fall wave.”

How many will ultimately die of the H1N1 flu depends heavily on whether there is a third wave in January, as happened in the 1918 and 1957 pandemics, and on whether the virus changes to be more lethal or drug-resistant.
more at link

[onehandle]

38. I believe it. I have just not come in contact with it.

I'm pretty happy about that actually.

[CreekDog]

31. Sounds scientific

:sarcasm:

[onehandle]

37. Look, I was just telling you what I personally have witnessed.

I am not saying there is no H1N1, just that people I know have not had it.

[dixiegrrrrl]

10. Bull. The CDC announced months ago it was not even COUNTING

swine cases, it was not requiring Dr.s to report them, and it was "assuming" any flu like deaths
it did hear of were swine flu.
There are many stories on how the CDC massaged the figures.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

14. Got some links?

[dixiegrrrrl]

20. Here...

CBS news:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/10/21/cbsnews_investigates/main5404829.shtml

"In late July, the CDC abruptly advised states to stop testing for H1N1 flu, and stopped counting individual cases. The rationale given for the CDC guidance to forego testing and tracking individual cases was: why waste resources testing for H1N1 flu when the government has already confirmed there's an epidemic?

Some public health officials privately disagreed with the decision to stop testing and counting, telling CBS News that continued tracking of this new and possibly changing virus was important because H1N1 has a different epidemiology, affects younger people more than seasonal flu and has been shown to have a higher case fatality rate than other flu virus strains.

CBS News learned that the decision to stop counting H1N1 flu cases was made so hastily that states weren't given the opportunity to provide input. Instead, on July 24, the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists, CSTE, issued the following notice to state public health officials on behalf of the CDC:
"Attached are the Q&As that will be posted on the CDC website tomorrow explaining why CDC is no longer reporting case counts for novel H1N1. CDC would have liked to have run these by you for input but unfortunately there was not enough time before these needed to be posted (emphasis added)."

When CDC did not provide us with the material, we filed a Freedom of Information request with the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). More than two months later, the request has not been fulfilled. We also asked CDC for state-by-state test results prior to halting of testing and tracking, but CDC was again, initially, unresponsive.
While we waited for CDC to provide the data, which it eventually did, we asked all 50 states for their statistics on state lab-confirmed H1N1 prior to the halt of individual testing and counting in July. The results reveal a pattern that surprised a number of health care professionals we consulted. The vast majority of cases were negative for H1N1 as well as seasonal flu, despite the fact that many states were specifically testing patients deemed to be most likely to have H1N1 flu, based on symptoms and risk factors, such as travel to Mexico.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

21. How did they come up with these these 27 Laboratory-Confirmed 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pediatric Deaths..

for week 46 (Nov. 15-21)?

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/updates/us/112709.htm

[Mojorabbit]

19. I believe they are testing all hospitalized patients

that die of flu like symoptoms. If this has changed I sure would appreciate a link. I agree that they did quit trying to test everyone on the street with flu like sx. Too expensive though the data would have been nice to have.

[du_grad]

34. This is correct

We are performing Flu PCR testing in our laboratory (referred to in the literature as RT-PCR). I believe that any hospitalized patient is having testing sent for the H1N1 Novel PCR testing. Regular Flu PCR testing only differentiates between A and B flu, of which H1N1 is a type A. The H1N1 Novel is a strain of H1N1 that must have further testing done. Regular H1N1 is included in the seasonal flu shot. The H1N1 vaccine is for the "novel" strain.

They are tracking hospitalized patients much more closely. Our testing has dropped way off from October. We were getting almost all positives for Type A flu back then. It was inferred that, since seasonal flu had not presented yet, that these Type A's were all H1N1 Novel. Many states, especially the Southwest, have been hit much harder than we have been in Ohio, I believe. I subscribe to a microbiology List-serv and California, in particular, had LOTS of cases. PCR subtyping is being performed at CDC designated laboratories, usually state health departments.

More information on the CDC page, which is very informative.

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/
http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/update.htm - latest update on Dec. 4 here
http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/diagnosis/ - information on testing (technical)

[unblock]

15. me among them. not fun.

first week was like a really bad cold.
second week was better, like a lingering cold that wouldn't quite go away.
then, once i was battered down and weary from two weeks of sickness, i got hit with 5 solid days of 102-104 fever.

mild fever sucks hard enough, but a 104 fever is something else entirely, nevermind for 5 days.

on the bright side, at least i'm innoculated now....

[Raine]

17. Same here

I had it during most of the summer, just when I thought I was over it it hit me again. :-(

[Sheltiemama]

23. I got my swine flu shot last week.

I'd gotten my seasonal shot in October. I can't tell you how relieved I was.

[CreekDog]

33. i got the cold that lasted then turned into a cough that wouldn't quit

then right when the cough let up, got slammed with the fever, though I took NSAIDs before it got over 103. although the fever wasn't as long lasting as yours.

this is not fun, i hate to imagine what you went through. i feel like i was run over.

[unblock]

35. my temp was WITH tylenol!

[daleo]

24. I am pretty sure I had it

I was lucky, as my case was very mild.

[Jennicut]

39. I got my H1N1 shot a long time ago, being a diabetic. Someone I went to high school with died from

it. I am taking no chances. This person was 34 years old. Those of us with weak immune systems should take it. I had a slightly sore arm and that was it.