Liberals sliding toward a debacle - Toronto Star

[Screaming Lord Byron]

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1078873816536&call_pageid=968332188774&col=968350116467

OTTAWA—A tour of the political trenches of Ontario and Quebec these days reveals a federal Liberal party in much bigger trouble than is visible from inside the Parliament Hill bubble.

While the daily opposition attacks on the government over the sponsorship scandal have been losing steam, the milder climate in the House of Commons is as misleading as the March sunshine when it comes to assessing whether voters are ready to warm up to the Liberals again.

On the ground, the ingredients of a potential Liberal debacle in the next election are slowly but surely coming together.

Unless they soon start singing from the same hymn book, Paul Martin and his Liberals are poised to lose a sizeable chunk of their Central Canada seats and — at the very least — their capacity to form a majority government.

A brief survey of the government's prime political territory reveals acrimonious divisions within Liberal ranks.

Among these is a serious erosion of public faith in the ethics of the ruling party; widespread government denial that it needs to clean up its house; and an opposition that is getting its act together in a way few observers anticipated only six months ago.

The last time all those conditions were united for the Liberals was in the lead-up to the '84 election lost to Brian Mulroney.

The kind of bloodletting seen in Hamilton and Mississauga over the weekend is a symptom of a larger malaise, borne out of a needlessly heavy-handed transition from the Chrétien to the Martin era.

In the summer of 1984, the Ontario federal Liberals had also spent much of the immediate pre-writ period fighting each other.

Then, too, lingering leadership scores within the ruling party were settled through messy local nomination battles.

There are other ominous parallels.

In 1984, the end-of-reign patronage appointments of then prime minister Pierre Trudeau poisoned the election well for his successor John Turner.

Now, the sponsorship mess left behind by Jean Chrétien stands to corrode Martin's election chances.

[alexwcovington]

1. But will power shift to the Conservatives or the NDP?

Probably the conservatives. Though a guy can hope.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

2. I'm not sure I totally agree with her premise.

It's only three months since the media was convinced Martin would win 180+ seats, I'm not sure Ms Hebert isn't over-compensating. Or maybe I just can't keep up with whatever the percieved wisdom is.

[alexwcovington]

4. I would.

This sponsorship scandal is the stuff that collapses governments.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

5. Possibly. The picture is too confused right now for me to make guesses.

I'd give it a month or so to see how the polls absorb events, and see where the dust settles.

[Spazito]

3. Geez, the blood fued between Martin and Chretien continues....

and that's not good. I suspect any lost votes will be split three ways between the NDP, the New Conservatives and the Bloc Quebequois who may, interestingly enough, take over the official opposition status given how many seats Quebec has and, if it is a minority Liberal government, hold the balance of power. The only thing I know for sure is: Buckle your seatbelts, this is going to be a bumpy ride!

[Screaming Lord Byron]

6. We'll have a more accurate picture at the end of the month.

Four reasons -
New Tory Leader
The Budget
The candidate selection process will be mostly over, so we'll know who's running where.
The Electorate will have had time to take in and contemplate recent events.

[Spazito]

7. In one sense, I am glad that there will be a real fight this election...

I dislike blowouts by any party. When it is close, we, as voters, get to have a real look at what each party is doing, promising, etc. I hope it is close but not a minority government unless, by some strange method, the Conservatives take more seats. If that happens, which I doubt, then I would want a minority government.

I really like Jack Layton, he is one of the best the NDP has had in a while, I wish him luck and hope the NDP does well this election!

[ConcernedCanuk]

8. Martin sealed his fate by ousting Sheila Copps In my opinion

.
.
.

First of all, it is a VERY nasty image when the new Prime Minister, who was the MINISTER OF FINANCE, pleads ignorance to a whole mess of financial *questions*

Martin may well be another of our "Shortest" holder of our Prime Ministers' Position.

And to basically "oust" Sheila Copps, well let me put it in my own words -

He (Martin)has created a very dangerous enemy when he needs all the friends he can get

and even if Sheila is "just blowing smoke", which personally I doubt,

She will not go away quietly

And

The Liberals have already lost any chance to stay in power as a majority, which is GOOD in my opinion

I'd like to see the NDP the Bloc, the Greens, etc to get in there and help clean up Canada's Politics

I hate to say it, but our PC's and Libs haven't done THAT great of a job in the last decade or two -

Just my Humble Opinion

[Minstrel Boy]

9. One thing about the Liberal purge.

If it hadn't happened, Martin would have been saddled with the same old faces he'd inherited from the Chretien years. Tactically, there's a great deal of logic in making a clear break with the past (though it could have been cleaner), to renew the Liberals in the eyes of the voters, even if it was mostly cosmetic. More so because of the auditor's report.

It was a damned if he did, damned if he didn't kinda situation.

[Moderator]

10. Screaming Lord Byron

Per DU copyright rules
please post only four
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DU Moderator

[TrogL]

11. Consider the source

The Toronto Star is one baby step to the left of the Sun.