U.S., Mexico face shortage of H1N1 flu vaccine

[steven johnson]

Source: LA Times

By Thomas H. Maugh II and Ken Ellingwood
October 17, 2009

Reporting from Los Angeles and Mexico City - As the so-called swine flu sweeps through the Northern Hemisphere once again, U.S. officials on Friday downplayed the impact of vaccine shortages, and Mexican officials stressed good hygiene and prompt medical treatment for flu-type symptoms.

Officials at the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had expected about 40 million doses of the swine flu vaccine to be distributed by the end of the month, but it looks as though a maximum of 28 million to 30 million doses will actually be shipped, said Dr. Anne Schuchat, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. That's about 25% fewer than expected.

"Vaccine production is pretty complex, and it is taking a bit longer than we would hope," she said at a news conference Friday.

In particular, growing the virus in eggs has not yielded as much antigen -- the crucial component of the vaccine -- as is normally obtained with the seasonal flu.



Read more: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-sci-s...

---

This could be a really mean flu season with the significant death rates in pregnant women, young children, healthy adults and a shortage of vaccine.

[dixiegrrrrl]

1. All the people who do not want to take the vaccine can relax now

as can the "mandatory vaccinations" paranoia.

[Lasher]

2. Let's see, 300M Americans, 30M doses.

Yep, we just might see the Darwin theory play out right before our eyes.

[WriteDown]

14. We GAVE it away....

http://www.france24.com/en/20090918-rich-countries-dona...

[Lasher]

16. WTF???

What a piece of shit this is! Fuck them, whatever happened to putting Americans' interests first?

“We will have enough vaccine for every American who wants it,” White House spokesman Reid Cherlin said.

And that was just a month ago when he said that. Fuck him!

So did we give away 10% of the 195 million doses we ordered or 10% of the 30 million doses we're supposed to get? And who pays for these donated doses we're not going to get? Wait, let me guess...

[WriteDown]

17. Bingo...

I wonder what the definition of "every american" is.

[Warpy]

27. Look at it this way

Americans who get bacterial superinfections like pneumonia after the flu can to to a drug store and get a course of antibiotics. Most won't need to be hospitalized, just stay at home and cough until it's gone.

Compare that to the countries we gave the shots to. Those folks don't often have drugstores and if they do, they can't afford them. If they get antibiotics, they don't take the full dose and save half for the next problem, insuring they grow antibiotic resistant bacteria. In these days of jet travel, those resistant bugs are going to end up back here eventually.

Giving 10% of the vaccine supply to the developing world is enlightened self interest.

The 30 million doses we have are just a start, with more supplies on the way as the manufacturing continues. A shortage is just what we needed, by the way, to get people on the fence over antivax hysteria to want the shot instead of toying with the idea of skipping it.

[WriteDown]

28. Assuming you don't die from the flu or pneumonia first...

Then you'll just have to accept that you were sacrificed for the "greater good" aka "grand scheme."

[Warpy]

29. Everything in medicine is evaluated by a risk versus benefit equation

The risk is slight because the first shipment of vaccine is being triaged to the people most in need of it: front line health care workers, pregnant women, young people. Every vaccinated person who is immune means probably ten people who won't get exposed during the prodromal stage of the illness.

More vaccine is on its way, making the risk even smaller.

News of a shortage is also encouraging people to get it, that's the psychology of any shortage of any commodity, something that will reduce overall risk even more.

Remember, the real flu season doesn't start until the end of next month, when people are confined indoors most of the time. That will give plenty of time for more supply to arrive and more people to be immunized.

[Lasher]

30. Oh well, just as long as it promotes our enlightened self interest.

The swine flu doesn't follow the 'real flu season'. That's why we're calling other virus infections the 'seasonal flu'. So your reasoning is flawed when you point to a direct relationship in that respect. However, it does look like H1N1 might be timed the same as a coincidence.

You predict H1N1 sufferers will find recovery in a trip to the drugstore and a few days at home. I hope it plays out that way but your scenario assumes the swine flu will not morph into something more deadly. If this occurs we will regret having given away any vaccine for popularity points with others.

[Warpy]

31. Anything is possible

including having the swine flu morph into something totally benign.

The charity toward undeveloped nations reflects dealing with things as they are, not as they might or might not become in the future.

[Lasher]

32. All of this reflects things as they might become.

Like you said, the virus might morph into something benign. Might not. So charity toward undeveloped nations is based on what might or might not happen. See, that's the way the future works.

Considering all reasonably possible scenarios, I think it's in my rational self interest not to die.

[Warpy]

33. Let's see, a tiny chance of death now

versus a larger chance down the road because of the way things work in the third world.

There's a reason non medical people don't make medical decisions. They tend to get scared and selfish.

[Lasher]

34. This non medical person decides which medical people to listen to.

I prefer those who know the difference between H1N1 and the seasonal flu.

[Warpy]

35. Obviously you don't

Since this discussion was about H1N1 and not the seasonal flu.

[Lasher]

36. Aha! You have chosen to employ the 'nener nener' gambit.

Well played, sir. Well played!

[LeftishBrit]

20. I don't think the world's poor should be the scapegoat for inadequate production...

And it was pretty obvious from the beginning that, whatever anyone said, there wouldn't be enough flu vaccine for everyone. Here, in the UK, either. It was always going to need to be rationed to some degree and targeted to the greatest risk groups. Which is one reason why all the right-wingers' (and some DU-ers') paranoia about 'mandatory vaccines' and 'marshal law' is so ridiculous.

[WriteDown]

21. Countries need to take care of our their own citizens first!

We can no longer be stewards or the world or the world police. That time has ended.

[uppityperson]

25. AMERIKA AMERIKA AMERIKA FIRST!!!!!!111

[LeftishBrit]

37. Apart from all other considerations, viruses don't respect national borders and citizenship laws

If the flu spreads seriously in countries where medical care is poor, and where lots of other diseases are prevalent, then this will increase the rate of spread *everywhere*, and also increase the risk of the virus developing resistance to treatment, and possibly even recombining with other flu viruses to become more deadly.

What America chooses to do here is not up to me; but I am very glad that the UK is contributing vaccines to developing countries, as are some other Europaean countries. Countries cannot be isolationist in response to what is already an international pandemic - unless our countries are also prepared to ban all travel during the duration of the pandemic, and that clearly isn't going to happen.

[uppityperson]

24. Very cool, thanks for posting that link as I'd missed it.

[winyanstaz]

3. Well I am happy to donate my flu shot to someone who wants it...

and Good luck to everyone

[Ian David]

4. Vaccines will corrupt your precious bodily fluids.

If you're afraid of being vaccinated, that's okay. Do whatever you want. I won't try to change your mind.

Save the vaccines for the smart people those who are not afraid of vaccination.

Right now, the bottleneck to providing "herd immunity" is not the segment of the population who are fucking morons concerned about the safety of vaccines.

The bottleneck is the SUPPLY of vaccines.

Therefore, I have absolutely ZERO problem with not talking complete and total fucking morons those who are concerned into being vaccinated this year.

There is a limited number of vaccines available.

Talking morons concerned people into being vaccinated will not increase the number of people in the population who will be vaccinated.

So, let Natural Selection take its course.

[northernlights]

7. herd immunity does not require 100% vaccination

The percentage varies among pathogens, depending on how easily they are spread.

In general, influenza viruses require 95% vaccination of a population to reach the threshold for herd immunity.

And either way, the people who choose to decline the vaccination were never a threat to those who choose to vaccinate. So I don't understand your angst.

[Ian David]

10. Of course you wouldn't. n/t

[kestrel91316]

15. People who choose not to be vaccinated are a THREAT TO THOSE

WOULD LIKE TO BE VACCINATED BUT CANNOT, FOR VARIOUS REASONS, particularly medical. You know, people with major pre-existing illnesses, transplant patients or other surgery patients too soon after surgery, etc.

The unvaccinated are a direct threat to the weakest among us. Hope they're proud to be Typhoid Marys.

[northernlights]

19. I don't expect to find transplant patients, surgery patients or

other immune-compromised patients wandering around my office, the supermarket, the classroom I share with 1 other distance student. And my university and office have both asked that anybody sick just stay home. They've both tried to get a supply of vaccine and so far come up empty.


Besides which, as you well know by now, unless you've been hiding under a rock, there will not be sufficient vaccine to go around. There are over 300M citizens in the US, and there will be less than 30M vaccines available by the end of the month. Have you even seen projections beyond that?

I'm in a low priority, low risk group, as are you. We will be last in line to get vaccinated. What are you planning to do -- beat somebody over the head to steal their place in line, lest you become known as a typhoid mary?

And btw, as you well know, this is hardly typhus.

[LeftishBrit]

22. Although I'm pro-vaccination, I don't think that the argument is applicable in this case...

because there is likely to be insufficient vaccine available. Not everyone will be able to get the jab, even if they want it.

[fasttense]

5. The best health care in the world, and we have a shortage of vaccine?

What, did suddenly millions of uncounted people appear? Vaccine makers can't count? Drug makers decided to quit making a profit?

More likely the invisible, magical, mystery hand of the free market doesn't really work when it comes to life and death necessities.

[WriteDown]

13. May be easier if we weren't GIVING IT AWAY!

http://www.france24.com/en/20090918-rich-countries-dona...

[Robb]

6. Read this paragraph:

"Despite the current low production, however, there are no plans to use adjuvants -- chemicals added to increase the immune response to the antigen -- to extend the supply of the pandemic H1N1 vaccine, said Dr. Jesse Goodman of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Many people who are reluctant to get vaccinated believe, mistakenly, that the adjuvants are toxic."

Congratulations anti-vax people, you've had an effect.

[northernlights]

8. the adjuvant they purchased has a bad history

It is an unapproved, new adjuvant that was in development years ago and it's the defense department's refusal to investigate problems that turned up following it's supposed nonuse when vaccinating for one of the Iraq wars, along with a track record of causing serious problems for people with allergies or auto-immune disorders (I forget which) that has led to concerns about it. It supposedly was not used in the Iraq vaccinations, but titers related to it turned up in Iraq war vets I think with Iraq war syndrome. Despite one federal depts. concerns that were repeatedly raised, the issue was buried. The pharma involved denied that their vaccine was contaminated with the adjuvant. But there was no other source possible for the titers.

I am a med lab tech student and not anti-vax per se, but after reading how it works from a biochemical/physiological standpoint and reading the history, I decided I would not vax if they used that particular class of adjuvant. The problem is the old, tried and true (and approved) adjuvant interacts with the virions themselves, to make it easier for the immune system to see the virus, so it responds earlier on in the infection. But it only stretches the vax supply a small amount. The new class of adjuvants they are tinkering with are intended to stretch supplies further, but they actually interact with and effect the immune system itself and in many people that can be devastating.

I'll see if I can find the article...it was a real eye-opener.

[dixiegrrrrl]

11. If you could find the article, I would love to see it posted.

In 1998, as a practicing Social Worker, I was encouraged to get Hep. B shots, a series of 3.
Cheap agency only gave us 2, couple of months apart.
Within weeks of the shots, I became ill, with Chronic Fatigue symptoms, and finally was diagnosed with "Fibromyalgia". Had to quit my career in 2002.
Later researched the vaccine. Squalene.

A study published in the 2000 American Journal of Pathology found that squalene "can trigger chronic, immune-mediated joint-specific inflammation.” Results raised questions about adjuvants and their role in rheumatoid arthritis and chronic inflammatory diseases.
Much later, I read: Routine use of the hepatitis B vaccine for all newborns began in 2002.

A few minutes ago I found this:
Swine Vaccination Additives for 2009

While the current batch of swine and seasonal flu vaccines won't contain adjuvants, the multi-dose vials of most inactivated (injected) H1N1 swine flu vaccines will contain the preservative Thimerosal. The live virus nasal spray however, will not contain Thimerosal or the unlicensed adjuvant that may be later added to inactivated H1N1 vaccines.
More at:
http://public-healthcare-issues.suite101.com/article.cf...

[northernlights]

12. see my post #9 nt

[northernlights]

9. GOA: Questions About the Presence of Squalene Antibodies in Veterans can Be REsolved

March 29, 1999
The Honorable Jack Metcalf
House of Representatives
Dear Mr. Metcalf:
You expressed concern about reports that the blood samples of some ill
Gulf War-era veterans contained antibodies for squalene1—a component of
adjuvant formulations used in some experimental vaccines but not in any
licensed vaccines.2 As requested, we identified whether (1) the
Department of Defense (DOD) or the National Institutes of Health (NIH)
performed or sponsored research using squalene, (2) DOD considered
using adjuvant formulations in vaccines administered to Gulf War-era
veterans, and (3) any research has detected the presence of squalene in ill
Gulf War-era veterans.



http://www.gao.gov/archive/1999/ns99005.pdf

[dixiegrrrrl]

23. Interesting. The report admits using foreign nationals as guinea pigs.

Claims they were volunteers.
I have heard/read of how those "volunteers" were collected.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

26. Ah, anti-vaccer material.

Find another source.

[JonQ]

18. Wasn't there a post earlier extolling the production of H1N1 vaccines

as proof of the efficiency and compassion of the government?

That person may want to retract that statement.