AP NewsBreak: Nuke agency says Iran can make bomb

[Dr_Willie_Feelgood]

Source: AP (Via Google News)

VIENNA — Experts at the world's top atomic watchdog are in agreement that Tehran has the ability to make a nuclear bomb and is on the way to developing a missile system able to carry an atomic warhead, according to a secret report seen by The Associated Press.

The document drafted by senior officials at the International Atomic Energy Agency is the clearest indication yet that the agency's leaders share Washington's views on Iran's weapon-making capabilities.

It appears to be the so-called "secret annex" on Iran's nuclear program that Washington says is being withheld by the IAEA's chief.

The document says Iran has "sufficient information" to build a bomb. It says Iran is likely to "overcome problems" on developing a delivery system.

Read more: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hXROT...

---

Cheney, the Israelis, the ASSociated Press, and the IAEA all in bed together. They want that war action something fierce!

Did anyone bring any condoms for this cluster*bleep*?

[Xipe Totec]

1. a secret report seen by The Associated Press...

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

50. Intrepid cub reporter, Ron Fournier.

[dipsydoodle]

54. Dismissed by IAEA today - Friday

Usual old AP bollocks.

[tomm2thumbs]

2. sounds familiar, in a 'Saddam Has Weapons of Mass Destruction' sort of way - echo, echo... echo....

and we thought learning stories like 'the boy who cried wolf' when we were children was pointless.

oh those stories speak volumes

[Wizard777]

3. Uh, I thought this was contrary to Washington's views?

Vienna and AP are aware that Dick Cheney is no longer "Washington?"

[TheCoxwain]

4. Perfect stick for the chicken hawks to beat Obama with.

[Hissyspit]

5. ??

http://www.newsweek.com/id/215529

Intelligence Agencies Say No New Nukes in Iran
Secret updates to White House challenge European and Israeli assessments.
 
By Mark Hosenball | Newsweek Web Exclusive
Sep 16, 2009
 
The U.S. intelligence community is reporting to the White House that Iran has not restarted its nuclear-weapons development program, two counterproliferation officials tell NEWSWEEK. U.S. agencies had previously said that Tehran halted the program in 2003.

The officials, who asked for anonymity when discussing sensitive information, said that U.S. intelligence agencies have informed policymakers at the White House and other agencies that the status of Iranian work on development and production of a nuclear bomb has not changed since the formal National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran's "Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities" in November 2007. Public portions of that report stated that U.S. intelligence agencies had "high confidence" that, as of early 2003, Iranian military units were pursuing development of a nuclear bomb, but that in the fall of that year Iran "halted its nuclear weapons program." The document said that while U.S. agencies believed the Iranian government "at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons," U.S. intelligence as of mid-2007 still had "moderate confidence" that it had not restarted weapons-development efforts.

One of the two officials said that the Obama administration has now worked out a system in which intelligence agencies provide top policymakers, including the president, with regular updates on intelligence judgments like the conclusions in the 2007 Iran NIE. According to the two officials, the latest update to policymakers has been that as of now—two years after the period covered by the 2007 NIE—U.S. intelligence agencies still believe Iran has not resumed nuclear-weapons development work. "That's the conclusion, but it's one that—like every other—is constantly checked and reassessed, both to take account of new information and to test old assumptions," one of the officials told NEWSWEEK. It is not clear whether U.S. agencies' confidence in this judgment has grown at all since the 2007 statement.

[Soylent Brice]

6. wow. how contradictory... nt/

[gauguin57]

13. Astonishingly contradictory!

How bizarre!

[Igel]

55. Let's assume the "secret report" is true.

Show me the contradiction.

Secret report: Iran has the information necessary to make a nuclear bomb; it's working on missile capability.

CIA: Iran isn't working on a nuclear bomb.

Actually, the conclusion of the first part of the report was proferred as a reason for Iran's suspending development work a few years ago. Development requires two things: Knowledge and materials. Most of the work was on developing the knowledge, with work towards procuring materials involving building centrifuges so as to enrich uranium. The latter work has continued. Of course, you can enrich uranium to reactor grade or weapons grade, with the former being a step on the way to the latter--saying whether or not it *is* just a step on the way to the latter depends on acquiring more information about Iran or making the right assumptions. Note that you can 'say' a valid inference or a claim.

Nevertheless, there's no contradiction in saying that Iran's not working on increasing their knowledge for making a bomb and saying they already have sufficient knowledge to build a bomb. Well, at least theoretically sufficient.

As for the second--that they've been enhancing their payload delivery systems, the missile-defense announcement of recent days could be seen as supporting this "secret annex". Or not. It depends what you mean by "missile"--short-, medium-, or long-range? While the press reported a bit of misdirection in saying there's no evidence Iran poses an "imminent" threat in long-range capability (something that nobody had seriously claimed), the reports about Obama's reorienting missile defense from long-range to short- and medium-range missile defense do say Iran's been working on short- and medium-range missile capabilities.

Okay, in summary: 1. Secret report says they have enough knowledge. CIA says they're not working on that aspect of it. No contradiction, they plausibly describe the same situation in two different yet complementary ways.
2. Secret report says that they're working on overcoming challenges in delivery system. Obama administration's CIA says that Iran's not an imminent long-range threat, but is or shortly will be a short- and medium-range threat. Secret report and Obama's CIA say essentially the same thing.
3. CIA says they're not working on producing the materiel for production of a nuclear bomb, a statement that says much more about Iran's intent than their activities. Secret report is mute on the topic. No contradiction is possible.

[maddezmom]

7. thank you was just looking for that to post

[tomm2thumbs]

8. oh dear - 'he said, she said, they said, you said, I said, who said, me said, it said....'

...I don't know who to believe - let's just scare America and make some money off it.

[indimuse]

15. who said

[pinto]

10. Good info.

[lagavulin]

16. No wonder 2/3rds of people believe the news media is biased or inaccurate

Poll: Media is biased, inaccurate, influenced by elites

/BTW, thanks Hissyspit...I was just about to look for that link (not to mention the hoarde of other reports to the same effect over the last few years...)

[struggle4progress]

43. IAEA denies report it is sure Iran seeking atom bomb

Published: 09.17.09, 23:01 / Israel News

The UN nuclear watchdog said it had no proof that Iran has or once had a covert atomic bomb program, dismissing a news report that it had concluded Iran was on its way to producing nuclear weapons. The International Atomic Energy Agency reaffirmed IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei's warning that allegations the agency was sitting on undeniable evidence of Iranian bomb work were "politically motivated and baseless." (Reuters)

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3778697,00.ht...

[Unvanguard]

49. Separate issues.

Does Iran have the capacity to develop nuclear weaponry? The IAEA says yes.

Is Iran actively developing nuclear weaponry? US intelligence says no.

[Hissyspit]

61. It's a stupid article. It's deliberately conflating.

[Selatius]

9. This could give Israeli hawks the green light to bomb Iran. All hell would break loose... nt

[debbierlus]

11. Oh god. Here we go again.

[FarCenter]

12. Lots of countries "have the ability to make a bomb"

It doesn't mean that they have a program in place to do so.

After all, this is 65 year old technology.

[marmar]

14. The Military-Industrial Complex wants that missile defense shield over Europe badly, don't they?

[bemildred]

17. This is a very Orwellian piece of propaganda:

Intelligence Agencies Say No New Nukes in Iran

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

[bc3000]

18. Does everyone here really think that Iran is NOT trying to become a nuclear power?

I find that rather hard to believe.

I can understand that people do not want more war, but is being disingenuous about Iran's intentions the way to go about that? We should try to ascertain the truth, and then decide on a course of action.

If you do not feel war would be justified even if Iran becomes a nuclear power, then you are entitled to that point of view. But it seems like people around here want the evidence to fit their goals, reminiscent of George Bush's strategy for going to war in Iraq.

[bemildred]

19. Yeah, I actually think that.

What is your evidence to the contrary?

[IndianaGreen]

20. blah, blah, blah, WMD, blah, blah, blah

Who cares? Iran is not a threat to anyone, and this WMD fearmongering is getting very old. How many GIs have died in Iraq on account of a WMD lie?

[New Dawn]

21. ASSoCIAted Press

[bemildred]

22. AEA denies report it is sure Iran is seeking bomb

VIENNA — The UN atomic watchdog said Thursday it has no concrete proof that there is or has been a nuclear weapons programme in Iran.

The International Atomic Energy Agency rejected a US media report which claimed its experts believed Tehran had the ability to make a nuclear bomb and was on the way to developing a missile system able to carry an atomic warhead.

"With respect to a recent media report, the IAEA reiterates that it has no concrete proof that there is or has been a nuclear weapon programme in Iran," a statement said.

According to the media report, the proof was contained in a so-called "secret annex" to the IAEA's latest report on Iran, but was deliberately being withheld by the agency's director general Mohamed ElBaradei.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hpiO...

[Igel]

56. C'mon.

If I were a lawyer, I'd ask, "If you have no concrete proof, what do you have? Circumstantial evidence that points to this as a likely conclusion? Do you have proof that is not 'concrete' under some definition of the term?'

It's annoying when people manipulate pragmatic implicature for their own purposes. Really, we should teach Grice, if not Stalnaker and Roberts, in 9th grade English.

[bemildred]

59. You have a report that says they have proof, and their denial that they have proof.

You don't see public political discourse get much clearer than that. I mean I see your point about that locution, but frankly that sort of thing is more the rule than the exception, and more often than not it seems like stupidity, or some sort of rhetorical contagion, rather than guile.

[bemildred]

23. Iran 'does not need' nuclear arms

The Iranian president has said his country sees no need for nuclear weapons, while insisting Iran will not abandon its pursuit of nuclear energy.

In an interview with US network NBC Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did not explicitly rule out the possibility that Iran would acquire nuclear weapons.

He said simply that such weapons were "not a part of our programs and plans".

Meanwhile, Iranian security forces were on alert ahead of an annual rally expected to draw opposition leaders.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8262174.stm

[bemildred]

24. Ahmadinejad: Iran will never stop nuclear program

WASHINGTON, Sept 17 (Reuters) - Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Thursday that Iran would "never" abandon its disputed nuclear program to appease Western critics.

In an NBC-TV interview, the Iranian leader also did not offer a direct response when asked whether there were any conditions under which Iran would develop a nuclear weapon.

"We don't need nuclear weapons," Ahmadinejad said, speaking through an interpreter.

"We do not see any need for such weapons. And the conditions around the world are moving to favor our ideas," Ahmadinejad added.

http://www.reuters.com/article/vcCandidateFeed1/idUSN17...

[bemildred]

25. Barak Says Nuke - Armed Iran Couldn't Destroy Israel

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - A nuclear-armed Iran would not be capable of destroying Israel, Defence Minister Ehud Barak said Thursday in remarks that departed from long-running Israeli arguments about the threat posed by its foe.

"Right now, Iran does not have a bomb. Even if it did, this would not make it a threat to Israel's existence. Israel can lay waste to Iran," Barak said in a transcript of a newspaper interview obtained by Reuters before publication Friday.

Israeli leaders have repeatedly sounded alarms over Iran's atomic ambitions, pointing at President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's calls for the Jewish state to be "wiped off the map" and support for Islamist guerrilla groups arrayed along Israel's borders.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a right-winger who brought the centre-left Barak into his coalition government, said he saw "eye to eye" with the Defence minister -- signalling a possible change in Israel's official rhetoric as world powers prepare to revive diplomatic engagement with Iran next month.

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2009/09/17/world/interna...

[Lagomorph]

26. The cat is out of the bag.

There will be no stopping proliferation.

In smaller countries, nuclear accidents could contaminate the entire country.

[tocqueville]

27. AP NewsBreak: Nuke agency says Iran can make bomb

Source: AP

By GEORGE JAHN, Associated Press Writer George Jahn, Associated Press Writer – 39 mins ago

VIENNA – Iran experts at the U.N nuclear monitoring agency believe Tehran has the ability to make a nuclear bomb and worked on developing a missile system that can carry an atomic warhead, according to a confidential report seen by The Associated Press.

The document drafted by senior officials at the International Atomic Energy Agency is the clearest indication yet that those officials share Washington's views on Iran's weapon-making capabilities and missile technology — even if they have not made those views public.

The document, titled "Possible Military Dimension of Iran's Nuclear Program," appeared to be the so-called IAEA "secret annex" on Iran's alleged nuclear arms program that the U.S., France, Israel and other IAEA members say is being withheld by agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei — claims the nuclear watchdog denies.

It is a record of IAEA findings since the agency began probing Iran's nuclear program in 2007 and has been continuously updated.

Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090918/ap_on_re_eu/eu_iran...

---

very long and detailed document

[IndianaGreen]

28. blah, blah, blah, WMD, blah, blah, blah

Who cares? Iran is not a threat to anyone, and this WMD fearmongering is getting very old. How many GIs have died in Iraq on account of a WMD lie?

[tocqueville]

30. ElBaradei was against the war in Iraq and this isn't leaked in the US, but Europe nt

[lib2DaBone]

31. Yellowcake from Niger... and purple fingers

The Niger uranium forgeries refers to forged documents initially revealed by Italian Military intelligence. These documents purport to depict an attempt by the regime of Saddam Hussein in Iraq to purchase "yellowcake" uranium ore from Niger during the Iraq disarmament crisis.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niger_uranium_forgeries

[tocqueville]

33. Iran has its own mines nt

[Psephos]

40. Nukes in the hands of election-stealing ultrafundamentalist theocrat racists...what could go wrong?

Not much, I'm sure.

[onehandle]

29. Israel will toast them long before they are anywhere near capable. nt

[bemildred]

32. Dupe:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

[tocqueville]

36. OK sorry didn't see it. Delete.

[bemildred]

38. No problem, they will be combined is all ...

I hate to have past discussions get lost.

[bemildred]

34. Soltanieh: Iran's nuclear talks with West are a 'new window of opportunity'

Iran's ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency Ali Asghar Soltanieh said the upcoming nuclear talks with the West pose a "real, new window of opportunity" and suggested that Teheran is prepared to address concerns about its nuclear intentions.

In an interview with the Washington Post published on Thursday, Soltanieh warned against attempts to intimidate his country with threats of new sanctions and reiterated that Iran has a basic right to pursue peaceful nuclear power.

"This is the best course of action, and this is a real, new window of opportunity that is being opened by the Iranian nation," Soltanieh reportedly said of the nuclear talks Iran is set to hold with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, the UK, China, France, Russia and the US, as well as Germany.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=125319814886...

[struggle4progress]

46. U.S. and Iran will come to the table

The Obama administration has said the United States will participate with five other nations in formal talks with Iran over its nuclear program ...

http://www.caller.com/news/2009/sep/18/us-and-iran-will...

[grytpype]

35. IAEA says this isn't true

[bemildred]

37. Intelligence Agencies Say No New Nukes in Iran

Secret updates to White House challenge European and Israeli assessments.

The U.S. intelligence community is reporting to the White House that Iran has not restarted its nuclear-weapons development program, two counterproliferation officials tell NEWSWEEK. U.S. agencies had previously said that Tehran halted the program in 2003.

The officials, who asked for anonymity when discussing sensitive information, said that U.S. intelligence agencies have informed policymakers at the White House and other agencies that the status of Iranian work on development and production of a nuclear bomb has not changed since the formal National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran's "Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities" in November 2007. Public portions of that report stated that U.S. intelligence agencies had "high confidence" that, as of early 2003, Iranian military units were pursuing development of a nuclear bomb, but that in the fall of that year Iran "halted its nuclear weapons program." The document said that while U.S. agencies believed the Iranian government "at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons," U.S. intelligence as of mid-2007 still had "moderate confidence" that it had not restarted weapons-development efforts.

One of the two officials said that the Obama administration has now worked out a system in which intelligence agencies provide top policymakers, including the president, with regular updates on intelligence judgments like the conclusions in the 2007 Iran NIE. According to the two officials, the latest update to policymakers has been that as of now—two years after the period covered by the 2007 NIE—U.S. intelligence agencies still believe Iran has not resumed nuclear-weapons development work. "That's the conclusion, but it's one that—like every other—is constantly checked and reassessed, both to take account of new information and to test old assumptions," one of the officials told NEWSWEEK. It is not clear whether U.S. agencies' confidence in this judgment has grown at all since the 2007 statement.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/215529

[Purveyor]

39. "confidential report seen by The Associated Press." I stopped reading right here... eom

[The abyss]

41. Why down rate this message – or for that matter any other message?

This is news and is part and parcel to this week's events, as noted by other posters.

Combine it – do whatever.

This “un-recommend” feature has no added bearing that I am able to discern.

[Prometheus Bound]

42. Because it's AP propaganda.

[struggle4progress]

45. IAEA says it's not true. DC says it's not true. Moscow says it's not true. Paris says it's not true.

Tehran says it's not true. Why give it any credence at all?

[Psephos]

47. "Tehran says it's not true" ??? Who believes anything they say after what happened in June?

Besides you, I mean.

[struggle4progress]

60. Multiple independent sources appear to contradict the AP report. The fact, that

most of us don't much like the Iranian theocracy (for good reason), isn't really relevant to the question Is the AP report accurate?

It is my view -- which you apparently do not share -- that in the end, a careful analysis, based on actual facts, will produce better results than knee-jerking to propaganda. In the case of Iran, there is no need to indulge in fantasy: many actual facts (such as execution rates, or the legal status of women, or the idiotic holocaust denials of certain leading politicians there) provide good reasons to dislike the regime

[Psephos]

62. Ok, I'll tone down the 'tude a bit...I do hear you

In fact, I agree fully with your view "that in the end, a careful analysis, based on actual facts, will produce better results than knee-jerking to propaganda."

Well said. That could be posted to the benefit of all on many threads here on DU.

My problem with Iran (and by that, I mean its government) is that it's not only authoritarian, arrogant, theocratic, and fundamentalist, but it also is mendacious when dealing with its own people (election theft is the ultimate breach of faith), and it destabilizes the Middle East with its clandestine support of Syria, Hamas, and AQI, and its constant threatening language about Israel. What they've done in Iraq is particularly galling. The IEDs supplied by Iraq have blown the limbs or worse off thousands of US military. Arab states in the region are nervous as hell about the Iranians getting nukes, and will race to develop their own to tamp down the influence Iran will enjoy. A nuclear arms race in the Middle East is simply nightmarish.

So the idea that Iran is clean as a whistle regarding nukes completely controverts their well-established behavior patterns, and takes an extraordinary disregard of human nature to buy. I can't go there. I'm not naive. Because the issue is literally Armageddon-style weaponry, to be held by people who explicitly have stated they are here on Earth to usher in their idea of Armageddon and cleanse the way for the reappearance of the 12th Imam - an apocalyptic occurrence - I think any errors in judgment should be on the side of prudence. It's bizarre to me to see the defense of bad regimes' "right" to nukes here on DU. When did progressives abandon the idea that we must do everything possible to lessen the chance of nuclear war?

I would, ahem, prefer not to see nuclear war while I am alive, and it will only take one nutjob with either an official or a smuggled nuke to bring the fire to us all.

That's my opinion. I am willing to modify it or reverse it should contrary facts come to light. Is the AP report accurate? Time will tell.

[The abyss]

48. I don’t give it any credence.

It is obviously propaganda.

I guess I just don’t understand unrecommending. Discuss it, pick it apart, and point out the obvious. Recommend based upon original content or poster’s comments. Unrecommend I just don’t get.

Thanks for the explanation!

[struggle4progress]

44. No proof Iran has, or ever had nuke weapons program: ElBaradei

NEW YORK – There is no concrete proof that Iran has or ever had a nuclear weapons program, according to the chief of the IAEA – Mohamed ElBaradei.

He was refuting press reports that the International Atomic Energy Agency – a U.N. watchdog – is witholding evidence of a nuke program by Iran.

Speaking at the IAEA’s Board of Governors meeting last week, ElBaradei stressed that allegations that the agency is withholding information on Iran are both politically motivated and completely baseless ...

http://www.vancouverite.com/2009/09/18/no-proof-iran-ha...

[and-justice-for-all]

51. Yeah, so....

India has them, Israel has them, Pakistan has them, Russia has them....

and who the fuck are we to tell another country what they can and can not do?

[Mosby]

52. Report: Iran can make nuclear bomb

Senior officials at the UN nuclear monitoring agency believe Tehran has the ability to make a nuclear bomb and worked on developing a missile system that can carry an atomic warhead, according to a confidential report seen by the Associated Press news agency.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) later issued a statement, saying it had "no concrete proof" of a covert nuclear weapons programme.

The AP said the classified document, titled Possible Military Dimension of Iran's Nuclear Programme, appeared to be a "secret annex" - detailing evidence of Iranian nuclear "weaponisation" that the US, France, Israel and other IAEA members say is being withheld by agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei - claims the UN nuclear watchdog denies.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2009/09/20...

[dipsydoodle]

53. IAEA Denies Report It Is Sure Iran Seeking Atom Bomb

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

A lot has happened between Thursday and today.

[tabasco]

57. Star Wars profiteers churning out the news these days.

Very impressive propaganda machine they have!

[Mosby]

58. 'Defiant Iran risks further isolation'

Iran's continued defiance on the nuclear issue will lead to more isolation and economic pressure on Teheran, Reuters quoted US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton as saying on Friday.

"There will be accompanying costs for Iran's continued defiance: more isolation and economic pressure, less possibility of progress for the people of Iran," Clinton said in a speech at the Brookings Institution.

"We have made clear our desire to resolve issues with Iran diplomatically. Iran must now decide whether to join us in this effort," she added.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=125319814965...

[TankLV]

63. Well - if Kevin Costner can make bad movies, I guess others can, too!

It's only fair...

[joshcryer]

64. Seeing the responses to this thread remind me of the reports about NK and how people claimed they...

...were bullshit.

I'm not saying I think Iran is making nukes. But it is clear that their nuclear program was not intended for power generation.