STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday September 17

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday September 17, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 6

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 16, 2009

Dow... 9,791.71 +108.30 (+1.12%)
Nasdaq... 2,133.15 +30.51 (+1.45%)
S&P 500... 1,068.76 +16.13 (+1.53%)
Gold future... 1,020 +13.90 (+1.38%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.47 +0.02 (+0.55%)
30-Year Bond 4.26 -0.01 (-0.19%)

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

The Year of the Ox or the Year of Fat Tails?
BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

While 2009 is the year of the Ox according to the Chinese calendar, it would seem that renaming it to the “year of fat tails” would be more appropriate. We have witnessed many events this year that one does not typically see on a day to day basis. For example, how many times does one witness the S&P 500 losing more than half its market cap? There have been times in the past where the S&P 500 will lose 50% of its value, though a decline of that magnitude typically takes place over years. The sell off that occurred in 2008 and into 2009 was truly a generational decline, not only in terms of its magnitude but also its ferocity. The decline in the markets was so quick and dramatic that the S&P 500 was 39.6% below its declining 200 day moving average (200d MA) at the November 2008 lows, and 36.1% below at the March 9th lows. The 2008/2009 decline was the second example of the S&P 500 being more than 35% below its 200d MA in 100 years, with the other example being during the Great Depression.

.....

Oil: Is it a Currency or a Commodity?

In addition to the statistical outlier that the November 2008 and March 2009 lows were for the S&P 500 relative to its 200d MA, there appears yet another statistical oddity, one that is remaining far out on the distribution curve and doesn’t seem to be interested in returning to normal. What I am referring to is the correlation between oil and the USD and the Euro. As the USD was selling off sharply last year it appeared as though oil was acting as an inflation hedge, or anti-USD hedge, as the decline in the USD was fueling commodity prices. You can see this dynamic when looking at crude oil prices which have been moving in lock step to the Euro, which makes up 57.6% of the USD Index.

-see chart-

The movements between oil and the Euro became incredibly linked in 2008 and have remained well above normal values. Going back to 1990, the correlation between crude oil and the Euro has fluctuated between being slightly negatively correlated (-0.20) to slightly positively correlated (+0.20), though this changed in a dramatic way in 2008. Once oil broke the psychological $100/barrel mark speculative fevers began to heat up where the run up in oil prices to $145/barrel was not entirely due to fundamental factors. You can see this below where the correlation between oil and the Euro jumped in the middle of 2008 as the USD was plunging and investors were using both oil and the Euro as a USD hedge. The correlation between oil and the Euro rose as oil broke above $100/barrel, but actually peaked during the deleveraging panic into November as the USD rallied strongly and both oil and the Euro sold off.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Building Permits Aug
Briefing.com 575K
Consensus 598K
Prior 564K

08:30 Housing Starts Aug
Briefing.com 570K
Consensus 583K
Prior 581K

08:30 Initial Claims 09/12
Briefing.com 565K
Consensus 555K
Prior 550K

08:30 Continuing Claims 09/05
Briefing.com 6000K
Consensus 6100K
Prior 6088K

10:00 Philadelphia Fed Sep
Briefing.com 10.0
Consensus 8.0
Prior 4.2

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/Econo...

[ozymandius]

5. First-time jobless claims expected to rise

WASHINGTON – The number of newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment benefits likely rose last week, evidence that jobs remain scarce.

Wall Street economists forecast that first-time claims for unemployment insurance rose to a seasonally-adjusted 555,000 last week from 550,000 the previous week, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters. The number of people remaining on the jobless benefit rolls also is expected to increase slightly, to 6.1 million from 6.09 million.

The Labor Department report scheduled for Thursday comes even as the Federal Reserve said Wednesday that production by the nation's factories, mines and utilities increased for the second straight month in August, the latest sign the economy is recovering. Inflation, meanwhile, remains essentially nonexistent, as prices rose only modestly last month.

Still, the economy isn't improving fast enough to spur greater hiring. Jobless benefit claims have trended down since topping 670,000 in early April, but remain far above the 325,000 per week associated with a healthy economy.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090917/ap_on_bi_ge/us_econ...

[UpInArms]

26. Initial Claims @ 545,000 - last wk rev'd up 7,000

U.S. initial jobless claims fall 12,000 to 545,000
8:30am Today

U.S. initial jobless claims lowest since July 11
8:30am Today

U.S. continuing claims rise 129,000 to 6.23M
8:30am Today

U.S. 4-week continuing claims lowest since April
8:30am Today

U.S. total jobless claims 9.53M vs. 9.68M
8:30am Today

U.S. Aug. housing starts up 1.5% to 598,000
8:30am Today

U.S. Aug. housing starts close to 600,000 expected
8:30am Today

[Hugin]

40. Today's reports are a true monument to the ...

">" shaped recovery.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil holds above $72 on signs US economy improving

SINGAPORE – Oil prices held above $72 a barrel Thursday in Asia amid signs the U.S. economy, the world's largest consumer of crude, has stopped shrinking.

Benchmark crude for October delivery was down 35 cents to $72.16 a barrel at midday Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

.....

Inventory data from the Energy Information Agency on Wednesday was mixed. Crude supplies dropped 4.7 million barrels last week, but gasoline stocks increased by 500,000 barrels and inventories of distillate fuels used for diesel fuel and heating oil rose by 2.2 million barrels.

.....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for October delivery was steady at $1.85 a gallon, and heating oil fell 0.78 cent to $1.82 a gallon. Natural gas dropped 2.0 cents to $3.74 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Panel begins inquiry into financial meltdown

WASHINGTON – Four months after its creation, a congressionally appointed panel modeled after the 9/11 Commission and the Iraq Study Group is opening a 15-month investigation into the causes of last year's economy-crippling financial collapse.

The 10-member, bipartisan Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission holds its first meeting Thursday. With a budget of $5 million, its instructions are to submit findings to lawmakers by December 2010, long after Congress hopes to have a new regulations in place for preventing another Wall Street meltdown.

.....

The panel's executive director is Thomas Greene, a high-profile lawyer who was the lead attorney in a California case against the tobacco industry that resulted in a $26 billion settlement. Greene also brought several civil cases against Enron and worked on an antitrust case against Microsoft, according to a biography released by the panel.

Both the White House and Democratic leaders in Congress said at the start of this year that overhauling how the government regulates banks and related financial businesses was a top priority. But that effort is bogged down in partisan bickering as well as differences between the Obama administration and key Democrats in Congress on what the new regulatory structure should be.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090917/ap_on_go_co/us_fina...

[AnneD]

17. Thomas Greene looks like a promising choice...

to unravel this ball of yarn-not spin it.

[tclambert]

27. So the recommendations of the bipartisan commission will come out AFTER new regulations

are expected to be put in place? It reminds me of "The Tick," who oftentimes saved the day just after the nick of time. Or "Team America--World Police," who left Paris in ruins saving it from terrorists.

[Ghost Dog]

33. "modeled after the 9/11 Commission and the Iraq Study Group"

says it all.

[Tansy_Gold]

37. "Says it all"

. . . . . and no one does a damn thing.






TG

[Hugin]

38. But... But... But... The little box saying it's been investigated has been checked!

Doesn't that make you feel all warm'n fuzzy inside! :selfhug:

[Tansy_Gold]

62. Little boxes made of ticky tacky

No, I don't feel all warm 'n' fuzzy inside.

We lost Mary Travers yesterday, and I spent too much time last night and this morning watching PP&M videos and crying and wishing I hadn't got rid of my guitar. It's gonna be a helluva long time before I feel warm and fuzzy about anything.

Especially this bullshit.


If religion were a thing that money could buy
The rich would live and the poor would die.


I hate these fuckers. I hate the fat rat bastards who think they're entitled to all the winnings and I hate the evil rat bastards who rig the game in their favor


Come senators, congressmen please heed the call
Don't stand in the doorway don't block up the hall
For he that gets hurt will be he who has stalled


It's not just their sense of justice that seems to have disappeared; it's their simple humanity.


Tell me who is the savage
Who is the savior
When a people are ravaged
By hatred and greed


It's got to stop. Somehow or other, it's got to stop. And "they" aren't going to do it. I guess it's up to us.

Tomorrow's breeze now, blows clear and loud;
I'm off my knees now, I'm standing proud.



On Peter Paul & Mary's website -- http://www.peterpaulandmary.com / -- Peter and Paul have written their comments on Mary's passing. One passage from Noel Paul Stookey served as a wake up call to me.

"sometimes frustratingly dismissive, i seldom heard her say she was sorry, yet she often displayed an immense generosity that would surprise even herself. witty, politically savvy, she was the master/mistress of the cutting exit line. once i was attempting to defend ronald reagan's educational policy. she interrupted me with "oh, for heaven's sake, do your homework!", turned on her heel and walked away. need i say it turned out she was right?"


Mary Travers was an I-told-you-so-er.

Don't let the light go out!
It's lasted for so many years!
Don't let the light go out!
Let it shine through our love and our tears.




Tansy Gold

[Hugin]

63. Very nice, Tansy_Gold.

[AnneD]

44. They will find the culprits....

but won't do anything. They are so afraid to do special prosecutors any more. So instead of setting limits for special prosecutors-they have stopped investigating and prosecuting all together.

I like Greene's pedigree but your right, if they don't do anything with the info, why wasted time and tax payer money.

[tclambert]

48. It's also patterned after the Pecora Commission that studied the causes of the Great Depression

and led to the Glass-Steagall Act (1933).

Which was repealed by the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (1999).

Somebody didn't pay attention in history class.

[Ghost Dog]

6. LEAP/E2020: Global systemic crisis: In pursuit of the impossible recovery

- Public announcement GEAB N°37 (Septembre 16, 2009) -

Before this summer, LEAP/E2020's team announced that there would be no recovery in sight in September 2009, and not until summer 2010 in any event. Well indeed, contrary to the claims of the media, and financial and political circles, we confirm our anticipation.

The slowdown in the speed of collapse of the global economy, at the origin of all the « good news » (1), is only due to the world's enormous public financial effort of the last twelve months (2). But the « time saved » using taxpayers' money around the world should have been dedicated to redesigning the international monetary system at the heart of the current systemic crisis (3). Yet, besides a few cosmetic considerations (4) and huge gifts to US and European banks, nothing serious has been undertaken, and, when it comes to the future, the « every man for himself » rule prevails (5).

Now, as summer 2009 comes to a close, and as the three rogue waves start impacting the global economy hard (unemployment (6), bankruptcies (7) and monetary shocks (8)), the time to mend the system, or to prepare for a soft transition towards a new global system, is over (9). The first signs of a major decoupling (10) are beginning to appear: the rest of the world is rapidly moving away from the Dollar zone. As shown by the chart below, there is a 95 percent chance that 1,000 billion new USDs will be printed in a very near future... not very attractive for the Dollar zone.

Inconsistent statistics reflect a chaotic world economy
We are heading straight to the phase of geopolitical dislocation expected to begin in the fourth quarter of 2009 (11). In this issue of the GEAB, our team analyses the trends at work (real estate market, srategic issues…) within the current chaos resulting from a flood of unchecked public expenditure and a persistently uncontrolled financial system in a context of growingly inconsistent statistics. Paradoxically, dislocation has become, according to our researchers, the only way to economic recovery (a recovery that will take place around a global architecture and interaction between economic, social and financial spheres profoundly different from anything we knew in past decades. Our team believes that the first features of the “post-crisis world” should begin to appear by summer 2010 and, in the coming months, they will dedicate themselves to their identification.

Meanwhile, as anticipated in the previous editions of the GEAB, no one can now construct a true picture of today’s global economic situation as macroeconomic figures are more and more contradictory or simply absurd (12). Measurement data and instruments have been so manipulated (13) and limited to a volatile US Dollar as sole benchmark (14), that no government, international organisation or bank (15) can now tell in which direction the global system is heading. The media reflect this chaos and contribute to their readers’/auditors’/viewers’ bewilderment: depending on the day, or even the hour, that they give contradictory news on finance, economy or currency. Policy makers, entrepreneurs, employees,… economists or analysts… are reduced to Pascal’s wager (16) to assess what will happen in future months.

/Summary continues... http://leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-37-is-available!-Global-syste...

[ozymandius]

7. GLOBAL MARKETS: European Stocks Build Gains For Fourth Day

LONDON (Dow Jones)--European stocks rose for a fourth consecutive session Thursday, with appetite for risk on a high as investors bet that a global economic rebound is underway.

.....

At 0755 GMT, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index was up 0.7% at 246.55, London's FTSE 100 index up 0.8% at 5165.46, Frankfurt's DAX index 0.7% higher at 5742.28, and the CAC-40 index in Paris up 0.6% at 3839.40.

.....

The positive tone helped Asian stocks push higher, with resource and energy stocks boosted by strength in metals and crude oil prices. Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 1.7% with South Korea's Kospi Composite 0.7% higher. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index added 1.7%.

.....

Also of note, the Bank of Japan decided to keep its key interest rate unchanged at an ultra-low 0.1%, while upgrading its assessment of the economy for the first time since July, offering further confidence to the region.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090917-703071.htm...

[fasttense]

10. All the world's bank/stock/insurance firms love them some of that non-reform Baucus bill. n/t

[Ghost Dog]

13. Euro zone trade surplus shows surprise growth

The euro zone's trade surplus grew more than expected in July as exports contracted much less than imports year-on-year and rose from the previous month while imports fell, Eurostat data showed today.

The seasonally unadjusted trade surplus in the 16-country area totalled €12.6 billion ($18.6 billion), compared with a €3.5 billion deficit a year before as exports fell 19 per cent year-on-year and imports plunged 30 per cent.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected a trade surplus of €5.2 billion. Eurostat revised up the June surplus to €5.4 billion from €4.6 billion.

The European Union's statistics office said that adjusted for seasonal factors, the trade balance was €6.8 billion, up from €2.3 billion in June and €1.5 billion in May.

Seasonally adjusted exports grew by 4.1 per cent in July against June, the second consecutive month of gains after June's 0.9 per cent increase over May - a sign of improvement in external demand for euro zone goods.

Seasonally adjusted imports, however, fell 0.3 per cent against June after a 0.2 per cent rise in June against May, pointing to continued weakness in domestic demand.

/.. http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0917/...


What the reports I've seen so far don't point out is that, year-on-year, July imports were down 25% while exports were down 22%: http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&articleid=75287...

[AnneD]

18. Are you guys....

having a jobless recovery too?

[Ghost Dog]

32. Unemployment increasing most everywhere

with worse to come...

What recovery (excluding, temporarily, financials)?

[ozymandius]

8. BofA board members subpoenaed

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo issued subpoenas to five Bank of America board members on Wednesday, as part of his investigation into the bank's purchase of Merrill Lynch a year ago, a source close to the investigation told CNN.

The names of the directors were not disclosed.

Cuomo's probe has so far revealed that Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke allegedly asked former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to threaten Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) CEO Ken Lewis with a change in management should Bank of America pull out of its deal to buy Merrill.

.....

Cuomo's office has yet to take action in its investigation, although it remains possible that formal charges could be brought against the company or its executives at some point in the next few weeks.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/16/news/companies/bank_of_...

---

Just like the SEC and BoA dust-up: This is not the America I know. It gives me the vapors to think that white collar types could be heading to prison for their deeds.

[AnneD]

19. RUT ROW RAGGY......

Suicide alert!!!!!

[tclambert]

22. But if CEOs can go to prison, who will be above the law?

[Tansy_Gold]

29. boooosh and cheeeney, paulson and bernanke, geithner and summers

for starters.





TG

[tclambert]

49. Whew. For awhile there, I thought the law and order nuts were going to win,

what with their crazy "No one is above the law" slogan. They obviously hate America. Everybody knows we have the best justice system money can buy.

[AnneD]

61. And Congress too

don't you know. Good congressmen like lobbyist don't come cheap.

[ozymandius]

9. Volcker Sees ‘Long Slog’ for U.S. Economy, Seeks Bank Limits

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Paul Volcker, the former Federal Reserve chairman who’s an economic adviser to President Barack Obama, said there’s a “long way to go” before the economy returns to pre-recession levels.

“It will be a long slog -- a matter of years -- with the risk of some relapses along the way,” Volcker said yesterday at a financial conference in Beverly Hills, California. While Volcker said he sees signs that the economy is in the “early stages of recovery,” he also warned that “it is way too soon to resume business as usual.”

.....

Banking Limits

In his speech, Volcker urged limits on the activities of banks that are considered “too big to fail,” going beyond what other officials in the Obama administration have advocated.

“I do not think it reasonable that public money --taxpayer money -- be indirectly available to support risk-prone capital market activities simply because they are housed within a commercial banking organization,” Volcker said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alf...

[AnneD]

15. Morning Marketeers...

and lurkers. What I want to know is whose is up at this hour checking market watch with me as I am #3 today. Ozy is up having coffee, but I bet Demeter is out what with being up in the ER last night (wishes for swift recovery to your daughter hon). So who is the other insomniac?

Volcker wins my Iron Arrow Award (the second time it has been awarded) for his outstanding straight talk. He is the person I would most want to handle my money. He gets it this year (over Elizabeth Warren) due to his advanced age. Look for her to be tapped next year.

With all that Volcker savvy about economics-it is a damn shame the Obama administration has taken the advice of those cuckoos from Goldman Sacs, Geitner, and Summers. And to carry the analogy further, they are nothing more than changelings-places into the eagles nest. And like young cuckoos, they shove the legitimate eagles heir hatchlings out of the nest. The parent unwittingly feed these interlopers as their own. It is a trick the lazy cuckoos have learned to survive. The sooner the eagles realize this-the greater their chances of survival is insured. Guess I have stretched that analogy to the limits.

Yesterday was a good day in the AnneD household (although I had a sucky day at work). We paid off another loan (yeah) and hubby finally got a settlement offer for the car accident that happened over a year ago (the one that could have killed him but totaled hid car and broke his arm). They were originally wanted to do a no fault when each party was equally to blame but we refused (she ran a red light and nearly T boned hubby). They finally offered 15K and we will settled. One third will go to the attorney and 1/3rd will go for the Docs so they are happy. We get 5k-which is not that much for all the hassle we went though (is there really enough compensation for THAT). But all we ever wanted was to be made whole and that comes pretty close to doing that. So now we have some found money. Too bad gold and silver are overpriced now. Hubby gave it to me to deal with. I will probably fill up the emergency fund with some then just park the rest for a while in some CD's with some good interest until we decide what to do. We do not part with money so easily these days, especially with things being as they are. We want assurances that our money doesn't evaporate in thin air.

Well, happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[ozymandius]

66. Elizabeth Warren will emerge as "the one that got away". Or -

"the Treasury Secretary we wish we'd had".

I offer my congratulations, such as they are, on your settlement. I think your idea to sock it away is very sound. Probably what Volcker would do too.

[Demeter]

67. Congrats on the Payoff!

You are too good for this country, you know.

[Festivito]

11. Debt: 09/15/2009 11,834,190,645,301.05 (UP 41,575,172,029.26) (Both up.)

(Debt up a good bit, nothing to write home about. Good day to all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,522,853,517,308.98 + 4,311,337,127,992.07
UP 34,695,222,864.03 + UP 6,879,949,165.23

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=n...

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.76, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,452,981 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 08/24/2009 13:24 -> 307,261,605
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,491.06.
A family of three owes $115,473.18. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 7,828,931,525.01.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,480,252,067.51.
The average for the last 32 days would be 5,137,736,313.29.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 163 reports in 238 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.36B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 238 reports in 350 days of FY2009 averaging 7.60B$ per report, 5.17B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,223 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.5 and 18.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
09/15/2009 11,834,190,645,301.05 BHO (UP 1,207,313,596,387.97 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,809,465,748,388.60 so far this fiscal year, broken down below:
Borrowed in FY2009: 0,602,152,152,000.59 in part from time during Bush reign.
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,207,313,596,387.97 in part since Obama takes over.


LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
08/24/2009 +000,472,040,908.69 ------------******** Mon
08/25/2009 +000,287,748,587.67 ------------********
08/26/2009 -000,466,043,865.86 ---
08/27/2009 +008,131,449,864.04 ------------*********
08/28/2009 +000,123,059,531.85 ------------********
09/01/2009 +087,210,147,628.98 ------------********** Tue
09/02/2009 +000,313,556,741.81 ------------********
09/03/2009 -005,471,580,596.27 --
09/04/2009 +000,000,664,126.38 ------------*****
09/08/2009 -000,191,031,319.46 --- Tue
09/09/2009 +000,137,837,081.44 ------------********
09/10/2009 +012,326,876,265.82 ------------**********
09/11/2009 +000,017,033,887.43 ------------*******
09/14/2009 -000,193,915,837.32 --- Mon
09/15/2009 +034,695,222,864.03 ------------**********

137,393,065,869.23 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

[Festivito]

53. Debt: 09/16/2009 11,827,966,342,208.43 (DOWN 6,224,303,092.62) (Up little, FICA down.)

(Debt up .121 billion, FICA drops over six billion.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,522,975,289,278.60 + 4,304,991,052,929.83
UP 121,771,969.62 + DOWN 6,346,075,062.24

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=n...

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.76, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,461,621 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 08/24/2009 13:24 -> 307,261,605
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,469.73.
A family of three owes $115,409.2. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 7,190,148,133.30.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,272,775,297.75.
The average for the last 33 days would be 4,793,432,088.87.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 164 reports in 239 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.28B$ per report, 5.03B$/day so far.
There were 239 reports in 351 days of FY2009 averaging 7.54B$ per report, 5.14B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,222 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.5 and 18.1T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
09/16/2009 11,827,966,342,208.43 BHO (UP 1,201,089,293,295.35 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,803,241,445,296.00 so far this fiscal year, broken down below:
Borrowed in FY2009: 0,602,152,152,000.59 in part from time during Bush reign.
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,201,089,293,295.35 in part since Obama takes over.


LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
08/25/2009 +000,287,748,587.67 ------------********
08/26/2009 -000,466,043,865.86 ---
08/27/2009 +008,131,449,864.04 ------------*********
08/28/2009 +000,123,059,531.85 ------------********
09/01/2009 +087,210,147,628.98 ------------********** Tue
09/02/2009 +000,313,556,741.81 ------------********
09/03/2009 -005,471,580,596.27 --
09/04/2009 +000,000,664,126.38 ------------*****
09/08/2009 -000,191,031,319.46 --- Tue
09/09/2009 +000,137,837,081.44 ------------********
09/10/2009 +012,326,876,265.82 ------------**********
09/11/2009 +000,017,033,887.43 ------------*******
09/14/2009 -000,193,915,837.32 --- Mon
09/15/2009 +034,695,222,864.03 ------------**********
09/16/2009 +000,121,771,969.62 ------------********

137,042,796,930.16 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

[Robbien]

12. Zero Hedge probed deeper into the story of "ghost fleet of the recession"

and found many more locations where idle ships are parking. There are ghost fleets along almost every single coastline

ZeroHedge has many satellite pictures showing the idle (red) verse active (green) ships. The massive amounts of little red dots is like a pox on the globe. Someone should tell those captains to get their ships moving cause didn't they hear, the recession is over.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/thousands-rusting-ship...

[tclambert]

25. What are the salvage laws again?

If you find a ship deserted, can't you claim it for your own? The law says you must find it in real, though not necessarily immediate, danger. Are any of these ships in the say of a storm? Have any gone adrift? Who wants to put a prize crew together and snag a few?

[Ghost Dog]

35. zerohedge appears to be offline at the moment...

[Robbien]

14. Treasury says will park less funds at Fed

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Treasury Department announced Wednesday that it will sharply cut back on the money that it has parked at the Federal Reserve during the financial crisis.

Treasury has been selling more bonds than it needs and putting the proceeds in an account at the central bank. This has freed up the Fed to loan funds to the market without putting downward pressure on the target Federal funds rate.

In a brief statement, Treasury said that its Supplementary Financing Account at the Fed will be cut over time to $15 billion from $200 billion.

Analysts said that Treasury is taking the action to avoid hitting the federal debt ceiling.

Treasury has asked Congress to pass an increase in the debt ceiling, but lawmakers have taken no action. The ceiling is expected to be reached in mid-October.

Until Congress acts, Treasury must take some creative steps to avoid hitting the ceiling. Today's action frees up $185 billion worth of debt issuing capacity.

Fed officials said the decision would have no impact on policy.

Analysts have said the Treasury program would be a helpful tool when the central bank decides to mop up reserves.

Treasury would have to expand the amount of funds in its account at the Fed. This would drain some reserves from the system.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasury-says-will-par...

[AnneD]

20. Never trust....

a skinny chef. When they won't even test their own cooking.......can't wait to see what happens next.

[tclambert]

28. Now that you mention it, Chef Ramsay isn't exactly portly. Hmmm.

Screaming insults at aspiring chefs must burn a lot of calories.

[mbperrin]

24. Thanks for this; my students are studying Adam Smith and water transport

next week. When the cheapest form of transport has unused capacity, class, what does that indicate about shipment of goods, ergo production of goods, ergo wealth of nations?

The student is to complete the exercise.

[DemReadingDU]

16. Above, in the Handy Links - Market Data and News:

Please note that the Bank and Credit Union links have been updated with data from June 2009. More institutions are showing higher Troubled Asset Ratios when compared to March 2009

Find Troubled Asset Ratio for Banks
http://banktracker.investigativereportingworkshop.org/b... /

Find Troubled Asset Ratio for Credit Unions
http://banktracker.investigativereportingworkshop.org/c... /

[DemReadingDU]

55. MSNBC: Is your bank ‘underwater’?

9/16/09 Is your bank ‘underwater’? Check its debt level
Look up any U.S. bank in the BankTracker from msnbc.com and American U.
States where more banks are carrying bad debt
See Map at link

More U.S. banks have moved into deep water, loaded down by troubled loans on real estate, according to a new analysis by msnbc.com and the Investigative Reporting Workshop at American University in Washington.

At the end of 2007, only 10 banks had more troubled loans than capital and reserves. That number rose to 77 by June 2008, then nearly doubled to 144 at the end of 2008. It reached 237 at the end of the first quarter of 2009. And now stands at 297 at the end of the second quarter. Still, that's only 3.6 percent of all 8,204 banks insured by the Deposit Insurance Corp.

Here are three ways to check the health of your bank:

* See how much bad debt the nation's 400 largest banks are carrying.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29619236/ns/business-us_bus... /

* Check a list of banks with high levels of troubled loans.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29619237/ns/business-us_bus... /

* Look up any bank or credit union by name on the updated BankTracker site from American University.
http://banktracker.investigativereportingworkshop.org / methodology
http://banktracker.investigativereportingworkshop.org/b... / banks
http://banktracker.investigativereportingworkshop.org/c... / credit unions

While the troubled asset ratio is not a predictor of bank failure, 84 of the 92 banks that have failed so far this year had ratios greater than 100 percent in their last quarter, American University reported.

more...
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32651151

[UpInArms]

21. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 76.286 Change +0.003 (0.00%)

British Pound Advances Even as Retail Sales Fails to Impress, Euro Hits Fresh Yearly High

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_brie...

The British pound advanced against the U.S. dollar for the second day but, the overnight rally was tempered as U.K. retail sales unexpectedly held flat in August, and the slump in private-sector spending paired with the rise in unemployment may drag on the exchange rate going forward as investors weigh the prospects for a sustainable recovery. Nevertheless, as the GBP/USD continues to find near-term support at the 20-Day SMA (1.6415) this week, the rebound in risk appetite is likely to push the pair higher as investors move into higher yielding assets, and the pound-dollar may continue to retrace the sell-off from the previous week as market sentiment improves.

Consumer spending in the U.K. held flat amid expectations for a 0.1% rise after increasing 0.2% in July, while the annual rate of consumption jumped 2.1% from the previous year. The breakdown of the report showed demands for clothing and footwear slumped 1.3% in August, with non-food store sales falling 0.6% during the month, while discretionary spending on food increased 0.7% from July. The data foreshadows a weakening outlook for the region as private-sector consumption accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, and households may continue to scale back on spending going into the following year as they face a weakening labor market paired with tightening credit conditions. At the same time, a survey by the Bank of England showed Britons anticipate inflation to grow 2.4% over the next 12 months, which remains unchanged from May, while 48% of the general public anticipates the central bank to increase the interest rate in 2010. As a result, the stickiness in the inflation outlook paired with expectations for higher borrowing costs may lead the BoE to hold a neutral policy stance going into the following year, and increased speculation for a rate hike in 2010 is likely to drive the exchange rate higher over the coming months as investors weigh the outlook for future policy.

The EUR/USD advanced for the fourth consecutive day and rose to a fresh yearly high of 1.4770 however, as the pair remains heavily overbought, the pair may retrace the overnight rally as the RSI holds above 73. Meanwhile, the economic docket showed the Euro-Zone trade surplus widened for the fourth consecutive month in July to EUR 12.6B in July from a revised reading of EUR 5.4B, following a 4.1% in exports, while the seasonally adjusted reading increased to EUR 6.8B from EUR 2.3B in the previous. At the same time, construction outputs slumped 2.0% in July to mark the third consecutive decline, with the annualized rate tumbling 10.8% from the previous year, and the outlook for future growth remains uncertain as businesses continue to scale back on production and employment to weather the downturn in global trade.

The U.S. dollar continued to lose ground against its currency counterparts as investors scaled back demands for safe-haven flows, and the greenback may face increased selling pressures over the next few hours of trading as equity futures foreshadow a higher open for the North American session. Nevertheless, housing starts are forecasted to increase to 598K in August from 581K, while building permits are projected to rise to 583K during the same period, and the data is likely to encourage an improved outlook for the world’s largest economy as the housing market begins to normalize. At the same time, initial jobless claims are projected to rise to 557K in the week ending September 12, while continuing claims for unemployment benefits are anticipated to hit 6100K during the first week of the month, and the data may weigh on the outlook for future growth as the Federal Reserve anticipates the annual rate of unemployment to hit 10% by the end of the year.

...more...

Dollar Marks a New Low for the Year as Carry Interest Builds

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Dollar_Marks_a_New_Lo...



The Economy and the Credit Market



Reflecting the building fundamental and speculative pressure behind the US currency and assets, the dollar (on a trade-weighted basis) has fallen for nine consecutive sessions. This is the worst trend for the FX Market’s most liquid security in at least 10 years. Trying to forecast the path the battered currency takes from here on, we have to look at the same factors that drove it down to its current lull. Assessing the situation from an absolute stand point, data does suggest that the financial markets have thawed and the economy is returning to positive growth at a brisk pace. However, speculating on the direction of the dollar is a practice in comparative valuation. Traders are more concerned with how quickly the US economy is recovering compared to its industrialized peers. And, though growth potential is at the root of most fundamental concerns surrounding the currency market; traders are more specifically interested in the outlook for return. As confidence in a recovery builds, the benchmark US three month Libor rate has fallen to a record low that puts the key yield at a discount to even its Japanese and Swiss counterparts. With risk appetite steadily rising and trillions of dollars of wealth still on the sidelines, the dollar future looks dim for the beleaguered currency.

A Closer Look at Financial and Consumer Conditions



Financial markets seem to be functioning at the same level as before the financial crisis struck. However, there are key disconnects that are preventing a return to normal that we have grown used to through the first of the decade. While liquidity has thawed to at the banking level and Libor rates have tumbled across the board, there is still limited access to credit for consumers and small businesses. In turn, the Federal Government is prompted to maintain its extremely loose monetary policy in hopes that the assistance will eventually trickle down; but in the meantime, the dollar suffers for its low yields. Foreclosures are still high, earnings artificially inflated and leverage is once again excessive – stability is fragile.



If there is one thing going for the US, it is the economic outlook. Though the financial markets are distorted by the government’s incredible stimulus efforts, the economy is nonetheless benefiting with an impressive rebound that will soon turn the US back on to growth. However, how solid this trend in expansion will be in the near term is the question that more investors should be asking. Treasury Secretary Geithner said in his testimony before the TARP panel that the recession is “very likely” passed; but he also said the subsequent period of growth will “feel” very week. Data confirms this. Adding to the anchor on spending seen in rising unemployment, the Census Bureau reported poverty was at its highest level in 12 years.

...more...

[UpInArms]

23. Dubai World says suing ex-CEO of unit for fraud

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE58G0...

DUBAI (Reuters) - Dubai World, a Dubai government holding company, filed a lawsuit in the United States this week against the former head of a subsidiary it accuses of fraud costing the United Arab Emirates firm millions of dollars.

"This complaint is based on a sinister plan that was orchestrated and carried out by defendant Herve Jaubert," said the court document. The suit was filed on Tuesday.

Jaubert was the chief executive of Dubai World subsidiary Exomos, which was established in 2004 to design and manufacture submarines, Dubai World said in a separate statement.

"Dubai World is fully confident that the U.S. court will come to the same conclusion as a Dubai court did in April 2009: that Mr. Jaubert misrepresented his ability to design and build submarines to obtain his position as CEO of Exomos, and then used that position to steal millions of dollars from Dubai World," the firm said in the statement.

"The company is accusing him of fraud, theft and related charges linked to his time as CEO of Dubai World subsidiary Exomos," it said, adding that the lawsuit was being filed in Florida because that is where Jaubert had fled to from the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

...more...

submarines?

[tclambert]

30. Is it too early to start talking about Dow 10,000?

We're about 2% away. One really good day, or a few reasonably good days and we could see it. Next week maybe? Or does a number with so many zeroes scare investors? (Did somebody say that's not rational? So? Since when does rationality rule the stock market? It's an applied psychology game.)

[CatholicEdHead]

31. Why go for just 10K? 30K was supposedly ahead of us for last year

http://www.amazon.com/Dow-2008-Different-This-Time/dp/1...

[Hissyspit]

34. "Why The Housing Bubble Will Not Bust"

LOL

http://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d.html/ref=mp_bxgy_p_dp_y/1...

[tclambert]

51. How proud Zuccaro and Lereah must be to have written such books.

The titles of their sequels will start with "Um, What I Meant to Say Was . . ."

[tclambert]

56. No 10K today. Dow slightly down at the bell.

[Hugin]

36. The Perfect Storm ('toon)!

Ah, Ben Sargent... One of the best!

[MattSh]

39. Shoulda been a pirate flag on that boat though... n/t

[Hugin]

41. I agree.

Would've been a nice touch. However, they couldn't have done it without the help of their Uncle... Sam.

[DoBotherMe]

42. K&R n/t

[Demeter]

43. Kid Update

The Kid came out of surgery minus one massively swollen, perforated, inflamed gall bladder, about 11:30 PM. She has tubes going everywhere, but she is still herself, under all the medication.

I left the hospital and started throwing papers, with frequent 10 minute naps to keep form crashing. Got 5 hours sleep, and now have to start picking up the pieces. the hospital wants me sitting there, providing comfort and care....well, they don't run into autism every day of the week, so it's understandable.

I'm so tired, I thought it was Friday today. talk about a time warp!

[AnneD]

45. Because I am a School Nurse...

at my PRN job at the hospital, I always got the pedi pts and special needs kids. But they would cut back my pt load to deal with the special needs. Sounds like they can't do that there. Hope you can get at least some sleep other wise you won't be much good. Thank goodness it is over. Get some documentation and charting just in case you have to go through any more hassles with CPS or APS. Ask your lawyer friend. It might come in handy some day.

[Demeter]

46. I'm Sorry, What Did You Say?

Help, I've been acronyzed!

[Dr.Phool]

47. Yes, you have been. FWIW,

The Alphabetization of America. Aka, TAA.

But, if you don't take her advice, Tansy will pull out the I.T.Y.S. stamp.

Good luck to you and your daughter. I hope she has a speedy recovery.

[AnneD]

58. This might expand your vocabulary.....

http://www.techdictionary.com/chat.html The American Version

http://www.webwasp.co.uk/define/SMS-text/a/index.php The British Version

[AnneD]

57. Sorry hon....

PT or PTS = patients
PEDI or PEDS = pediatrics
APS = adult protective services
CPS = child protective services

sorry for the shorthand...my daughter laughs when I send her a recipe...it's all in Nurse short hand but I write pinches and smidgens in grams and drams...

glad to see you up.

[tclambert]

52. I looked it up, CPS stands for Crane, Poole and Schmidt

the law firm on Boston Legal.

APS could be Attending Physician Statement. Would that make CPS Consulting Physician Statement? Please AnneD, we need translation into Earth human language.

Removal of the Gall Bladder will necessitate changes to the diet as digesting fat will become more difficult. Lots to learn. One of my brothers lost his decades ago. ("Lost?" Must have been in a wild card game.) He's still fat and annoyingly Republican. Lost the bladder but he still has his gall.

[AnneD]

59. And I have known folks that have lost....

bladders and they are still pissers but the ones that get me the most are the folks that have lost some of their bowel...they can still be shits. Oh that Nurse humour just pops out randomly. We just refer to those folks as code brown or code yellow. We are too polite.

[tclambert]

54. pedi pts = pediactric patients

PRN = practicing registered nurse.

Still got me stumped on CPS. Capsular polysaccharides? Cysteine proteases?

pedi pts could = pedicure paints = toenail polish.

[AnneD]

60. PRN

per diem....casual worker. Not as nice as it sounds, the floor is short handed and needs 3 more nurses but you are the only extra hand they sent.

[DemReadingDU]

50. Hope she recovers soon from the surgery

and you too, from lack of sleep, and stress.

[Hugin]

64. ...

[ozymandius]

65. My dear, I hope this hardship passes quickly.

You have my wholehearted support. Let me now if you need backup on the WE thread. Love to your child.

[Demeter]

68. I did a Lot of Prep Work, While Waiting at the Family Surgery Room

The University had internet terminals, so I sorted through most of the backed up email and bookmarked the pieces to post...

The system wouldn't let me play Evony, so that was the next best thing...

And of course, Peter, Paul and especially Mary will be the theme this weekend. It's like losing our Mother Teresa.

[AnneD]

69. With all the execs committing suicide....

I was thinking of a suicide weekend. An introspection of sorts. Not the boozed and drugged overdoses of Hollywood but that of culture....in art(Van Gogh), philosophy (Socrates), music (Theme from M*A*S*H Suicide is Painless), literature (Sylvia Plath). File that for maybe next weekend-after all Autumn and early Winter is a time of reflection.