In Illinois poll, Kerry's cruising

[gristy]

http://www.suntimes.com/output/news/cst-nws-poll07.html

BY KRISTEN MCQUEARY AND STEVE SCHMADEKE

If Illinois is a good indicator, President Bush must convince more voters they're better off than they were four years ago to win a second term.

In a survey conducted by the Daily Southtown, the Chicago Sun-Times' sister newspaper, 50 percent of likely primary voters said they are not better off today -- a direct correlation to their presidential preference. Three out of four voters who feel they're worse off picked U.S. Sen. John Kerry over Bush.

Overall, Kerry -- who is expected to visit Chicago on Tuesday -- continues to lead Bush in Illinois 52 percent to 39 percent.

more...

[Racenut20]

1. 52% not high enough. Need more work.

Need to carry Illinois across to Iowa, Missouri, and Arkansas.

[gristy]

3. You're right: Gore beat Bush 55% to 43% in Illinois in 2000

This poll isn't much of an improvement over that result.

You can get past election results here: www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/

[alcuno]

5. Except 9% of voters are unaccounted for in this poll.

If it breaks, 5-4, Kerry has 57% and * has 43%.

[gristy]

8. And Nader got 2% in 2000

So this poll result would represent NO improvement over 2000. WHAT IS IT WITH THESE PEOPLE????????????

[starroute]

15. Bush might not get much more than that 39%

There was another thread earlier today (I think the one about Florida) saying that the incumbent's figures in the early polls tend to be very close to their final result and that the undecideds generally break towardes the challenger. I'd never seen that before, but if it's true, the implications could be huge.

[northernsoul]

13. don't forget WI and MN

sadly, I don't know if I can guarantee my state as a lock for the good guys this fall.

[4dsc]

2. Is this another media ploy

I am wondering if the media isn't trying to manipulate voters here.. Show the Kerry is leading will make democrat's feel more comfortable and perhaps not make the effort come November..

[gristy]

4. I don't think so. I think he really is leading.

[alcuno]

6. * never comes to Illinois.

Maybe he's been here twice for five minutes in the past three years. The Republicans have written off Illinois. But people WILL vote in November because they can't stand * and because of the senate race.

[Arugula Latte]

17. And isn't if funny

how you NEVER hear a word about how the Repubs have "lost" Northern states such as Illinois and New Jersey and Washington with their extremism (and are in the process of losing Arizona and New Mexico), but all we ever hear about is how the Democrats have blown it because no one in the South will vote for them. The South, the South, the South! (Say as in "Marcia, Marcia, Marcia!")

[Kira]

7. where will he be on Tuesday?

Can anyone go see him?

[ramapo]

9. These polls are dangerous

Take no comfort from these polls. It is way too early. The Bush propaganda campaign hasn't begun in earnest.

Everyone of us must everyday do all we can using our time, money, and expertise to help John Kerry defeat Bush.

[Journeyman]

11. Only one poll matters. . .

the one we'll all participate in November 2.

"Eye on the prize."

[PROGRESSIVE1]

10. Illinois 58% Kerry/41% Bushler in November.

:kick:

[stanwyck]

12. I'm at O'Hare right now

waiting for my flight back to Atlanta after a few days in downstate, rural Illinois. I'm very encouraged by what I've heard from people here. My conservative hometown sounds more like Kerry country these days. The farmers don't like Bush, my savings and loan CEO brother doesn't like Bush, my retired schoolteacher father doesn't like Bush, and even my crazy sister doesn't like Bush. Which is hardly an endorsement of Kerry. But I do feel very encouraged by the talk of the last few days.

[nodehopper]

14. Illinois is not a very good indicator

It's in the fairly conservative Midwest, but it's one of the most solidly Democratic midwestern states. It always goes Democrat, both in temrs of state politics and on a national level.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

16. True, Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are the least conservative....

Midwestern states.