STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday August 24

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday August 24, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 6

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 21, 2009

Dow... 9,505.96 +155.91 (+1.64%)
Nasdaq... 2,020.90 +31.68 (+1.59%)
S&P 500... 1,026.13 +18.76 (+1.86%)
Gold future... 954.70 +13.00 (+1.38%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.56 +0.13 (+3.76%)
30-Year Bond 4.37 +0.13 (+3.00%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

An Important "Conference Call"?
BY BRIAN PRETTI

Boy, are we getting a number of mixed messages these days. Like trying to navigate the current environment isn’t tough enough already, right? Sheesh. A month or so back we were treated to the surprising current period optimism from the Duke/CFO Magazine quarterly CFO survey. These folks have had a good short-term historical track record, so we at least listen when they speak. Next, maybe a month-plus back we were served up the Business Roundtable CEO Survey which was very much subdued in comparison to their CFO brethren. A tick up in confidence? Sure, but nothing to write home about and nowhere even close to the magnitude of the snap back in optimism from the CFO office. Well wouldn’t you know it, now comes the quarterly Conference Board version of the CEO business confidence index and point blank, it’s a near moon shot to the upside. Admittedly rebounding from a near record low, the survey shot up 25 points for the current quarter. In the entirety of the history shown in the chart below, this is the second best quarterly gain on record. The best (26 points) came in the quarter after 9/11 for very obvious reasons. As I may have mentioned when looking at this survey in past years, we’ve only seen these near vertical kind of moon shot advances in this survey very near the conclusions of official US recessions over the last three decades (the time for which data is available). Take this for what you will, but the Conference Board CEO participants are quite the much happier bunch as of late. And given their track record, we need to at least acknowledge and listen.

-chart-

If there are any flies in the ointment of this survey, it’s the fact that the bulk of CEO’s were more optimistic about future results due to cost reductions in their respective businesses. Here’s a direct quote from the report.

“Among chief executive officers who expect profits to increase, 56 percent believe cost reductions will drive profits up, while 33 percent cite market/demand growth as the main source of improvement. Only 7 percent cite new technology as a driver of growth and the remaining 4 percent cite price increases.”

In recent months I have tried to extensively address the fact that reported corporate revenues were the key and relatively disturbing issue in aggregate 2Q earnings reports. The year over year drop in so many top lines of global behemoth corporations was nothing short of breathtaking. Couple that with the lack of forward guidance for many and the question becomes, for how many quarters can corporations cost cut their way to “beating the numbers”? And this brings up a key point about the present. Can the US economy recover and begin to grow based on cost cutting? In a primarily credit and consumption based economy of the moment where the greatest corporate cost is labor (and the one cost that is being attacked the hardest), cost cutting may boost corporate bottom lines for a number of quarters, but what about corporate customers that in a sense are their very employees?

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[fasttense]

11. CEOs are happy because their staggering cuts to payrolls and jobs

are creating profits (Wall Street loves to see people laid off).

But...Are they eating the goose that's laying their golden eggs?

Without good paying jobs, will the economy ever really recover? There is a continual trend down in GDP as seen in the last graph at the link. There are ups and downs, but it's one step up and two steps down. The last graph at the link shows a downward trend in GDP since 1977.

CEOs have basically fired their way to profits but those profits will only continue if Wall Street continues to over value corporate stocks AND, this is the BIG IF, if Americans can continue to purchase at their current rate.

With jobs disappearing faster than consumers are spending, how long can the largest consumer market in the history of the world continue to buy up products even at this anemic rate? Corporations are wiping out their customers by firing their employees, how long can they do it before there are very few customers remaining?

[Demeter]

28. Why Shouldn't CEOs BE Happy? They Have Uncle Sugar Supporting Them

No need to even PRETEND to produce a product anymore. No employees, raw materials, capital equipment, or even lobbyists needed anymore. It's all gravy.

[ozymandius]

2. no goobermental reports today n/t

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices climb above $74 on recovery hopes

BANGKOK – Oil prices climbed above $74 a barrel Monday in Asia amid spreading optimism about a global economic recovery.

Expectations that demand for energy will grow were spurred by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke who said Friday that the U.S. economy is reviving.

.....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for September delivery added 2.43 cents to $2.0199 a gallon and heating oil for September delivery added 1.28 cents to $1.9177 a gallon. Natural gas for September delivery fell 2.9 cents to $2.775 per 1,000 cubic feat after tumbling another 14.1 Friday.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Roubini warns of double-dip recession: report

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Nouriel Roubini, one of the few economists who accurately predicted the magnitude of the world's recent financial troubles, sees a "big risk" of a double-dip recession, according to an opinion piece posted on the Financial Times' website on Sunday.

.....

Yet he warned that policymakers face a "damned if they do and damned if they don't" conundrum in trying to unwind their massive fiscal and monetary stimuli to keep the global economy from toppling into a depression.

He said that if policymakers try to fight rising budget deficits by raising taxes and cutting spending, they could undermine any recovery.

On the other hand, he said if they maintain large deficits, worries about excessive inflation will grow, causing bond yields and borrowing rates to rise and perhaps choking off economic growth.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090823/bs_nm/us_roubini_doubledip_recession

[Hugin]

9. "... raising taxes and cutting spending, they could undermine any recovery."

No worries, the Investment Banks Oil Speculators Energy Companies already have that underway.

[ozymandius]

10. My question is: raising taxes on which income bracket?

How much harm to the economy would raising taxes on the income brackets that have enjoyed public policy over eight years that stuffs money into their pockets?

[Hugin]

14. You mean the group who already has more than they can possibly spend?

That group?

[ozymandius]

15. Exactly.

I am talking about the group that has a stupid amount of money.

[Tansy_Gold]

33. I could be wrong, but it seems to me that until that happens

Nothing will change.

The cycle of pouring all the profits into a few greedy hands has to be broken for the recession/depression to halt. It's not something that can be balanced the way it is. It's not like they can say okay, now we've got enough, now we'll let things go back to normal. Things CAN'T go back to "normal" unless and until the imbalance is corrected.

The safe way to do that is to initiate a tax-based redistribution.

The unsafe way is the FR part of FRSPs.



Tansy Gold

[Roland99]

21. Whoever it is on CNBC replacing Becky this morning reluctantly agreed w/Roubini

that's something I guess.

[OverDone]

74. .

I'm thinking a quadrupole dip, which would get the DOW to about 1000. Then we will just be starting the depression haha

[ozymandius]

5. Final weekend of clunkers program draws big crowds

From Vermont to California, exhausted but appreciative car dealers watched their lots grow empty as crowds rushed to trade in gas guzzlers during the final weekend of the popular Cash for Clunkers program.

The hectic pace of the $3 billion rebate program accelerated in the final weekend, after the government announced the program would end at 8 p.m. EDT Monday, two weeks earlier than expected.

Adding to the urgency, some dealers had said they would stop Cash for Clunkers sales even earlier to make sure the government reimbursed them for the rebates — or because they didn't have enough eligible cars left.

.....

Cash for Clunkers has been wildly successful in spurring new-car sales and getting gas-guzzling models off the road, though some energy experts have said the pollution reduction is too small to be cost-effective. Customers receive rebates of between $3,500 and $4,500, depending on the improvement in fuel efficiency from their old vehicle to their new one. As of early Friday, nearly half a million cars had been sold through the program.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090823/ap_on_bi_ge/us_clunkers_final_weekend

[Demeter]

29. I Can't Wait to See How Many Dealers Go Under

because the govt. doesn't come through, and the dealers who sold all those cars, giving away their profits in expectation that Uncle Sugar would pay them....

[Dr.Phool]

42. I went past a Chevy dealer and a Ford dealer yesterday afternoon.

No crowds. To be honest, I couldn't tell if they were open or not.

[tclambert]

76. On Sunday? Surely the car dealers would not work on the Lord's Day!

They'd all head for the nearest bar to get licker'd up!

[mnhtnbb]

66. Did you forget that sarcasm thingie? Or do you believe

the dealers won't be paid?

[Demeter]

69. I've Seen Too Much Stupid and Too Much Ugly

to think that there's going to be a happy ending here.

[tclambert]

75. Now, did it get people to buy cars who weren't going to buy cars, or did it just shift sales

around a bit? I asked that of a co-worker who traded in an old pickup for a new Chevy Cobalt (net gain for him about 10 mpg, which may translate into a few hundred dollars worth of gasoline per year). He said he probably would not have bought a new car without the C4C program. So, according to my poll, Cash for Clunkers was 100% effective! (Fun with Statistics 101.)

My friend said they asked that very question on a little survey they had him do as part of the deal. We won't get the results of these surveys until they process the paperwork on all the deals. That will probably take a few weeks to a few months.

Meanwhile, the car sale figures for August should be ver-r-r-ry interesting. September, too. I expect sales up for August, down from that in September. But how much?

[ozymandius]

83. Seasonal adjustments in sales stats will also be useless.

This year is shaping up to be an outlier in terms of seasonally adjusted anything. Unemployment stats were up-ended with GM's bankruptcy and Chrysler's sale during periods of the year when we normally would have had factories at normal (though much reduced, market induced) operation.

[ozymandius]

6. Senator Seeks Broad SEC Market Study

Sen. Ted Kaufman (D., Del.) is expected on Monday to call for the Securities and Exchange Commission to review all forms of current stock-market structure, signaling the broadest statement yet from a legislator in the continuing debate over the growth in high-frequency trading, a lightning-fast, computer-based trading technique.

In a letter reviewed by Dow Jones Newswires to be sent to SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro on Monday, Mr. Kaufman said regulatory moves in the past decade have had the unintended consequence of making the stock market too fragmented, possibly giving high-speed traders an advantage over retail investors. Mr. Kaufman wrote that there are now a series of potential conflicts of interest on Wall Street trading desks trying to serve both retail clients and high-frequency firms.

.....

Ms. Schapiro has set her agency's sights on dark pools, private venues where large blocks of securities are traded anonymously; and flash orders, which give some market participants on certain stock platforms a chance to act on stock orders before they are routed to other venues for filling. An increase in the use of both has been at the center of regulators and congressional leaders' growing concern about high-frequency trading.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125108149844652889.html

---

Now - we're getting somewhere. The outcome of this investigation will be absolutely fascinating.

[Demeter]

30. The Solution is Quite Simple--Meaning It Will Never Happen

Revert to honest open sales. No black pools, no flash trading, no derivatives, pay for quality and get it. And lots more regulation.

[ozymandius]

7. Euro zone industrial orders rise in June

LONDON -- Industrial orders in the 16-nation euro zone rose 3.1 percent in June from the quarter before, official data showed Monday, suggesting the manufacturing sector could be emerging from recession.

The European statistics agency Eurostat said new orders - a key gauge of industry's future growth - rose in both France and Germany, which emerged from recession in the second quarter, as well as Ireland, which has been among the hardest-hit by the global economic crisis.

.....

The picture was gloomier across the wider 27-nation European Union, where industrial orders were down 0.4 percent on the month, and 24 percent on the year.

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2009/08/24/business-eu-eu-economy_6807551.html

[fasttense]

16. So if you only look at 16 nations, 59%, it looks like things are improving but if you look at

27 nations things are continuing to decline at about 24% per year.

[ozymandius]

8. Foreign Firms Show Interest in Failed U.S. Banks

The sale of the operations of failed Guaranty Bank in Texas on Friday to the U.S. division of a Spanish bank signals that foreign banks can succeed in the auctions for collapsed U.S. lenders.

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA on Friday became the first foreign company to buy a failed U.S. bank in this crisis; on Friday, federal regulators shut down Guaranty.

Other foreign banks with a U.S. presence interested in gobbling up failing U.S. banks include French bank BNP Paribas SA through its San Francisco subsidiary, Bank of the West; Toronto-Dominion Bank, through its Portland, Maine, subsidiary, TD Bank; and Rabobank, the El Centro, Calif., subsidiary of Rabobank Group of Utrecht, Netherlands.

Any additional capital to help cushion the blow to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the financial system from bank failures would be welcome. So far, 106 banks have failed in the two years since the financial crisis erupted, 81 this year and 25 in 2008. The failures are depleting the FDIC's insurance fund.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125107229558052583.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

[Hugin]

12. Healthcare insurers get upper hand (LAT)

Thanks to DUer quantass for pointing out this article.

Obama's overhaul fight is being won by the industry, experts say. The end result may be a financial 'bonanza.'

Meanwhile, companies would probably see a benefit by providing less insurance "per premium dollar," Hunter said.

"It would be quite a windfall," said Wendell Potter, a former executive at Cigna insurance company who has become an industry whistle-blower.

Consumer and labor advocates acknowledged the industry's lobbying success.

In the first half of 2009, the health service and HMO sector spent nearly $35 million lobbying Congress, the White House and federal healthcare offices, according to data from the Center for Responsive Politics.

With more than 900 lobbyists, that sector -- whose top spenders are insurance giants UnitedHealth, Blue Cross Blue Shield and Aetna -- was poised to spend more than in 2008, a record lobbying year.

UnitedHealth spent the most, $2.5 million in the first half of 2009, and hired some of Washington's most prominent political players, including Tom Daschle, the former Senate majority leader who served as an informal health policy advisor to Obama.

"They have beaten us six ways to Sunday," said Gerald Shea of the AFL-CIO. "Any time we want to make a small change to provide cost relief, they find a way to make it more profitable."


More... http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-healthcare-insurers24-2009aug24,0,2392720.story

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

I'll say it once again... If I had wanted Romney Care, I would have voted for Romney.

[Roland99]

22. Something like 7 lobbyists per lawmaker? Sad. (and a self-promoting notice)

Wrote this up last night:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=6376396&mesg_id=6376396

[ozymandius]

24. +1 in your Rec basket.

Good to see you, Roland. How is the new gig suiting you?

[Roland99]

26. Thanks and hi!

Things are still going well. Just got my daughter off to school for her first day of high school here in FL. She's nervous and missing friends back home but I bet she'll have some things to tell me when she gets home today! :-)

[Tansy_Gold]

38. Good to see you!

Sounds like all is going well. Good for you, and good for us who need to know all is not hopeless out there!

:hi:


Tansy Gold

[Hugin]

54. Wow... 92 recces.

Good job, Roland! :D

[tclambert]

78. Saw that post. It was great.

Capitalism by itself doesn't work. Socialism by itself, at least Soviet-style socialism by itself, doesn't work. What we need is a hybrid system, combining the strengths of the two. Socialism to protect the poor and the working class, capitalism to encourage the working class and the entrepreneur class to excel. I would like to see an intelligent, rational discussion of where the boundaries should be. (No teabaggers, ideologues, nor anyone named Palin (except Michael Palin) should participate.)

[Roland99]

82. Hear! Hear!

[ozymandius]

13. Harvard’s Mendillo Increases Cash, Sees Diminished Fund Returns

Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Harvard University’s chief executive officer for endowments, Jane Mendillo, is breaking with past strategy and setting aside cash to increase investment options, as the wealthiest U.S. school prepares for a decline in returns.

“I’d like us to be strategic investors and I’d like us to be able to respond to whatever needs the university might have,” Mendillo, who took over the fund in July 2008, said in an interview in her Boston office. “Based on those two things, being able to access some small pocket of cash is important.”

Harvard is seeking to avoid a repeat of last year’s cash squeeze, caused by losses on derivatives used to protect the university against rising interest rates. With the value of endowment assets tumbling along with financial markets, the school sold $2.5 billion of bonds in December, cut jobs and postponed building projects.

The endowment was fully invested in past years and borrowed to amplify gains, with leverage equal to 3 percent of assets as of last year. Hard-to-sell investments such as private equity and real estate accounted for about 30 percent of holdings.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ab2Oee1IbMtg

---

Of course, the greatest drop in earnings occurred during Larry Summers' disastrous tenure as Harvard's president.

[Demeter]

31. But That's Okay. Larry Got Another Gig

thought of which is doing nothing for my already soured stomach...

[Tansy_Gold]

39. Have I already said Larry Summers is a dickwad?

I just absolutely can't stand that man thing.



TG

[Po_d Mainiac]

43. I don't think so. U might want to repeat it!

:donut:

[Demeter]

56. He's the Rodney Dangerfield of Economics

can't get no respect!

[Tansy_Gold]

60. Rodney Dangerfield was funny, sometimes.

Larry Summers is dangerous, always.

He don't deserve no respect.

dickwad.





Tansy Gold

[ozymandius]

17. UBS Faces Gruebel Gloom Until 2011 as Withdrawals Curb Recovery

Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- In 24 hours UBS AG settled a six- month tax dispute with the U.S. and freed itself from partial ownership by the Swiss government. Investors applauded, sending the shares up 11 percent in Zurich trading.

Now Switzerland’s largest bank by assets is bracing for a cold shower. It must stop rich clients from fleeing, rebuild its investment-banking division and return to profit after 38.5 billion francs ($36.4 billion) of losses over the past eight quarters. Meeting those challenges may take years.

.....

Chief Executive Officer Oswald J. Gruebel, who came out of retirement to run UBS in February, has refrained from saying when the bank will produce a profit or halt withdrawals by wealthy customers. In his six-month tenure, he has already announced 7,500 job cuts, sold a Brazilian unit, replaced three executive board members and tapped investors for 3.8 billion francs to bolster capital.

A reversal in withdrawals will probably lag behind a financial turnaround at the bank, Gruebel, 65, told analysts and reporters on Aug. 4. Outflows may persist after UBS lost client advisers and as regulatory pressures reduce growth prospects for wealth management, he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aFevt49MrIQ0

---

I wonder if anyone at UBS has ceremoniously punched Phil Gramm in the crotch yet?

[Tansy_Gold]

40. Why stand on ceremony? n/t

[AnneD]

70. Tansy....

you are in rare form.

First day of school and I am just now getting here. Luck to you daughter Roland.

[Tansy_Gold]

72. Well, see, I *have* to stand on ceremony.

Or at least on *something* because I'm short and I wouldn't be able to reach if I didn't stand on something. . . ..

:evilgrin:


Tansy Gold

[tclambert]

79. You don't have to reach very high to punch Phil Gramm in the crotch.

Follow-through is important. Remember to aim past your target. And keep your wrist lined up!

[AnneD]

87. Also thumb placement is essential....

thums are out over the index finger.

[Festivito]

18. Debt: 08/20/2009 11,720,828,555,380.16 (UP 2,596,153,054.10) (Up 1 and 1.5B$.)

(Debt up a billion, FICA side up one and a half billion.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,385,126,904,158.71 + 4,335,701,651,221.45
UP 1,088,553,104.23 + UP 1,507,599,949.87

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.77, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,135,142 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,161.8.
A family of three owes $114,485.39. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 4,981,577,517.98.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,985,262,014.38.
The average for the last 31 days would be 3,856,705,175.21.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 147 reports in 212 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.39B$ per report, 5.16B$/day so far.
There were 222 reports in 324 days of FY2009 averaging 7.64B$ per report, 5.23B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,249 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.4 and 18.3T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/20/2009 11,720,828,555,380.16 BHO (UP 1,093,951,506,467.08 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,696,103,658,467.70 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/31/2009 +095,534,108,940.65 ------------**********
08/03/2009 -005,083,538,887.00 -- Mon
08/04/2009 -000,056,382,262.77 ----
08/05/2009 +000,017,974,078.47 ------------*******
08/06/2009 -000,578,106,269.92 ---
08/07/2009 +000,290,467,707.81 ------------********
08/10/2009 +000,222,135,743.03 ------------******** Mon
08/11/2009 +000,246,752,500.45 ------------********
08/12/2009 +000,081,638,592.29 ------------*******
08/13/2009 +004,096,319,823.99 ------------*********
08/14/2009 +000,017,806,259.60 ------------*******
08/17/2009 +012,224,191,599.44 ------------********** Mon
08/18/2009 +036,282,270,009.21 ------------**********
08/19/2009 +000,703,521,737.77 ------------********
08/20/2009 +001,088,553,104.23 ------------*********

145,087,712,677.25 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power.
Since then US borrowed $2,056,196,752,121.09 in last 336 days.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4025421&mesg_id=4026826

[ozymandius]

20. Every twelve seconds we net gain a another American...

That certainly puts a new perspective on the weekly initial unemployment claims.

[Festivito]

67. I need to update more often. It's down to 10 seconds now. /nt

[tclambert]

80. Maybe if you'd get a vasectomy, it would slow down a bit.

Hmmm, birth control as an economic solution . . . Condoms for C-- ?

Couldn't finish that punch line. Sorry.

[Festivito]

68. Debt: 08/21/2009 11,719,258,192,538.99 (DOWN 1,570,362,841.17) (Up 1/3B$, FICA down 1.9B$.)

(Debt up one third of a billion, while the FICA side goes down a tenth less than two billion.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,385,460,451,439.75 + 4,333,797,741,099.24
UP 333,547,281.04 + DOWN 1,903,910,122.21

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.76, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,236,981 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 08/24/2009 13:24 -> 307,261,605
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,144.04.
A family of three owes $114,432.11. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 4,787,257,227.22.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,829,805,781.78.
The average for the last 31 days would be 3,706,263,659.78.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 148 reports in 213 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.13B$/day so far.
There were 223 reports in 325 days of FY2009 averaging 7.60B$ per report, 5.21B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,248 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.4 and 18.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/21/2009 11,719,258,192,538.99 BHO (UP 1,092,381,143,625.91 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,694,533,295,626.50 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
08/03/2009 -005,083,538,887.00 -- Mon
08/04/2009 -000,056,382,262.77 ----
08/05/2009 +000,017,974,078.47 ------------*******
08/06/2009 -000,578,106,269.92 ---
08/07/2009 +000,290,467,707.81 ------------********
08/10/2009 +000,222,135,743.03 ------------******** Mon
08/11/2009 +000,246,752,500.45 ------------********
08/12/2009 +000,081,638,592.29 ------------*******
08/13/2009 +004,096,319,823.99 ------------*********
08/14/2009 +000,017,806,259.60 ------------*******
08/17/2009 +012,224,191,599.44 ------------********** Mon
08/18/2009 +036,282,270,009.21 ------------**********
08/19/2009 +000,703,521,737.77 ------------********
08/20/2009 +001,088,553,104.23 ------------*********
08/21/2009 +000,333,547,281.04 ------------********

49,887,151,017.64 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power.
Since then US borrowed $2,054,626,389,279.92 in last 337 days.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4029565&mesg_id=4029594

[ozymandius]

19. CIT Debt Sold to Widows Has Fine Print Pimco Resists

Aug. 21 (Bloomberg) -- As the world’s biggest bond investors cut off funding to CIT Group Inc., the commercial lender turned to retirees for debt financing.

CIT sold $827 million of debentures designed specifically for individuals between December 2007 and March 2008. At the time, “disruptions” in credit markets led to “the loss of access” to unsecured debt markets, “historically significant sources of liquidity for the company,” the New York-based company said in a July 21 regulatory filing.

.....

The retail bond market typically lets companies sell debt at lower yields than institutional investors would demand. Yet when a company’s fortunes deteriorate, the notes may trade at higher relative yields because it’s difficult to sell them.

.....

CIT’s $7.69 million of 6.75 percent of so-called InterNotes due March 2011 trade at 48 cents on the dollar to yield 64 percent, according to Trace, Finra’s bond-price reporting system. That yield is 26 percentage points more than the company’s $750 million of 5.6 percent securities that mature one month later, which were targeted to institutions. Those securities trade at 62 cents to yield 38 percent.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=am8X0llUPR_Q

[ozymandius]

23. Ritholtz: Yahoo Finance vs Google Finance

This is interesting since I use both portals to find information that I post here every day. This is mostly chart data with some embedded commentary.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/yahoo-finance-vs-google-finance/

I agree, mostly, with Ritholtz in that Yahoo has the heaviest content volume. Google, however, has made significant strides toward improving its content volume and technicals features.

[DemReadingDU]

25. great toon today! n/t

[Demeter]

27. Morning, Ozy!

If you have a weak stomach, or just don't want to be totally polluted by mind sickness, avoid the top Ten Conservatives this week. They posted hate mail to DU, and I may never eat again.

This was a weekend of further unraveling of the snarled ball of yearn that is our global economy. I am gratified that people are starting to be identified, indicted, and convicted. There's a long way to go, though. How many members did the GOP have at its peak? I'm not saying ALL of them are criminal, and some of the rest may not even be mentally ill, just accidentally confused. The sane have since migrated, explaining the rapid drop off in GOP membership.

And then there is the Business Class. Graduates of top-rated B schools may not all be crooks...or GOP, for that matter. But if I had to look for perps, that's where I'd start!

I'm hoping that by the middle of the week, things will go back to livable...

On edit: snarled ball of yearn? Well, it's poetic, in a way.

[ozymandius]

32. Good morning.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

Dang! Those were some hurtful e-mails. This week's posting should be a lesson to those who believe that it's okay to mix computer access, a thirteen year-old and everclear.

I love the special message to DUer poster SickofDummycrats - :rofl:

Please have a better day than these people are having. :hi:

[Dr.Phool]

44. I'm not sure I can handle it.

I check out my old hometown, Cleveland Plain Dealer ( www.cleveland.com ) every day. They have comments to all of their stories. I wonder if mommy knows junior is on the computer and sniffing glue in the basement. It gets vile. Connie Shultz, the wife of Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown is a columnist. You should see the hatred come out when she writes.

[wovenpaint]

37. I love the poetic "snarled ball of yearn"

:rofl:
As a knitter and spinner, I can vouch for that-we yearn to use it, but it sure can take forever to unravel the tangled mess!
(I think our collective economies are the epitome of that analogy-blech)
Thanks for the morning chuckle...
:hi:

[DemReadingDU]

34. NYT Editorial: About Your 401(k)

a key quote...

8/24/09 Editorial: About Your 401(k)


"Pre-retirement payouts from 401(k)’s and universal I.R.A.’s should be discouraged"


full editorial...
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/24/opinion/24mon1.html?_r=1

*************

With an upcoming major downturn of the market, does anyone think that the government would totally nix the early withdrawal option?

[Demeter]

57. They Wouldn't Dare

some things have got to be sacred, still.

[DemReadingDU]

63. I think they would

Rumors elsewhere around the blogosphere.

[UpInArms]

35. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 78.095 Change +0.055 (+0.07%)

US Dollar Faces Another Plunge, How Will Fundamentals Shape Things?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/eur_fundamentals/US_Dollar_Faces_Another_Plunge__1250906570670.html

The US dollar ended this past week in a precarious position. After four consecutive days of selling pressure (the currency’s worst trend since the end of May), the greenback once again finds itself within arm’s reach of its yearly lows. The market has flirted with renewing the dollar’s bear trend for nearly two months now. It is only a matter of time and speculation before the world’s reserve currency finds direction once again – especially as the global recovery gathers traction and the scales between risk and reward tilt towards higher returns. In determining what may be the ultimate catalyst for a renewed trend, we have to determine what traders are more concerned about: risk appetite or growth potential. Investor sentiment is notoriously difficult to gauge as it is notoriously fickle and often sparked by innocuous factors that quickly snowball through speculation. However, there is a good chance that, in the end, both paths may lead back to growth.

Through the worst of the financial crisis, the US dollar garnered a clear distinction as a safe haven through its reserve status and the liquidity of the government debt that backed it. Whether this title still fits or not, the dollar’s flight-to-safety quality continues to drag it down while equities, commodities and other popular ‘risky’ asset classes rally. In the short-term, this designation may in fact benefit the currency. While we have seen investor sentiment steadily rise over the months, with the S&P 500 just recently hit new highs for the year; there are signs that optimism is flagging. Taking a look at the volume data that accompanies the steady trend in equities, there is a clearly diminishing trend in conviction behind this move. Considering the risks just beneath the surface of this speculatively-fueled recovery, it is no surprise that doubt is developing. Since the worst of the financial crisis depressed investment levels to oversold conditions, we have seen a natural rebound turn into an impromptu bull trend on the foundation that the global economy is returning to growth. However, the early signs of recovery that market participants have attached themselves to are merely evidence that the recession is easing and stability is returning. Policy officials and economists have unanimously warned that expansion through the next year will stagnate; but speculation has built off of its own momentum. Eventually, these divergent assessments have to realign - and it isn’t the nature of growth projections to suddenly change. However, with statistics like rising unemployment, strained credit availability and the US already facing the most bank failures in a year since 1992 (through August nonetheless); there are plenty of catalysts to spark a wave of fear.

Looking outside of the simple measure of the appetite for and aversion to risk, we also have to consider the dollar’s relationship to this fundamental qualifier. The currency has been labeled a safe haven partly as a holdover from the panic-stage of the crisis through the end of 2008 and partly due to its loose monetary policy approach in the face of what some market participants consider a clear recovery (a situation which would likely suppress growth and yields). However, if indeed the global recovery will stagnate through the near-term, maintaining its fiscal stimulus, guarantees and bailout loans may actually encourage a faster return to sustainable growth. In the days ahead, the market will find a better sense of the United State’s standing in the race to recovery. Second readings of German, UK and US 2Q GDP numbers will provide important updates on the component data behind the headline readings. Consumer spending, capital investment and exports will be critical in evaluating the pace of recovery beyond the three months ending in June. Among the other notable economic listings on the docket, consumer confidence, personal income and spending figures will measure the health of an economic group that accounts for approximately 70 percent of GDP. Another notable contribution could be made housing. This past week, existing home sales marked their biggest jump on record, but due to a sharp drop in prices due to foreclosures and at the consequence of rising inventories. A genuine recovery in this vital source of wealth and employment depends on credit and consumer health.



...more...

Euro Pulls Back to Halt Four-Day Rally, British Pound Continues to Hold Narrow Range

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Euro_Pulls_Back_to_Halt_1251109129169.html

The Euro failed to push above 1.4400 once again, and pared the overnight advance to slip to a low of 1.4281 on Monday to halt the four-day rally. At the same time, the economic docket reinforce an improved outlook for the region as new industrial orders surged in July to top market expectations however, as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet sees a ‘very bumpy road ahead,’ fears of a slower recovery may continue to drag on the exchange rate as investors weigh the outlook for future policy.

A report by the European Union’s statistics office showed industrial demands jumped 3.1% in June to mark the biggest rise in 19 months amid expectations for a 1.8% rise, and the data suggests the economic downturn is nearing a bottom as policymakers take unprecedented steps to stem the downside risks for growth and inflation. However, the euro failed to react to the news, and weakened throughout the European trade to hold below 1.4325, Friday’s close. Meanwhile, ECB President Trichet held an improved outlook for the economy at the Federal Reserve summit at Jackson Hole, Wyoming and said that ‘the real economy is starting to get out of the period of freefall,’ and defended the Governing Councils stance on monetary policy by stating that ‘a gradualist approach of this kind may be the most effective antidote to the threat of price stability.’ At the same time, board member Ewald Nowotny forecasts economic activity to remain ‘sluggish’ following the sharp contraction while, Erkki Liikanen expects unemployment to exceed 9.4% in the months ahead, and the caution tone held by the ECB suggests the central bank may take further steps to jump-start the ailing economy as the outlook for future growth remains uncertain.

The British pound pulled back from the intraday high (1.6548) and slipped below the 50-Day moving average to reach a low of 1.6440, and the GBP/USD may continue to hold a narrow range over the near-term as investors weigh the outlook for future policy. Credit Suisse overnight index swaps have fallen after jumping 126.5bp earlier this month, and are up 86bp at the end of August, and the expansion in monetary policy may continue to drag on the exchange rate as investors scale back expectations for a rate hike next year. As a result, we may see the pound-dollar trend sideways throughout the week however, as loans for home purchases are anticipated to rise for the fourth consecutive month in July, expectations for an economic recovery later this year may drive the Sterling higher in September.

The U.S. dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc during the overnight session, but continued to lose ground against the commodity currencies as oil prices continued to hold above $74 a barrel, with market participants moving into higher risk/reward investments. As the economic docket for Monday remains fairly light, the rise in risk appetite may continue to drive the reserve currency lower over the next 24 hours of trading as market sentiment improves. Nevertheless, the Chicago Fed National Activity index is likely to reinforce an enhanced outlook for future growth as economic activity improves however, an unexpectedly decline could weigh on the markets and lead the greenback higher as risk trends continue to dictate price action in the currency market.

...more...

[DemReadingDU]

36. Vanguard: owned by mutual funds

Most investment firms are either publicly traded or privately owned. Vanguard is totally different—it's owned by the mutual funds, which in turn are owned by our clients.

https://personal.vanguard.com/jumppage/simpletruths/partner.html

**********

So if mutual funds go bankrupt, then Vanguard goes bankrupt?

[DemReadingDU]

41. Money as Debt II - Promises Unleashed (1 of 8)

Money as Debt II - Promises Unleashed (1 of 8)

Bailouts, stimulus packages, debt piled upon debt, where will it all end?

How did we get into a situation where there has never been more material wealth & productivity and yet everyone is in debt to bankers?

And now, all of a sudden, the bankers have no money and we the taxpayers, have to rescue them by going even further into debt!

Money as Debt II Explores the baffling, fraudulent and destructive arithmetic of the money system that holds us hostage to a forever growing DEBT...and how we might evolve beyond it into a new era.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_doYllBk5No

Website: Money as Debt
http://www.moneyasdebt.net/

[Epoon]

45. Cantrell Oil field dead by next year.

Without all the associated hyperventilating on Peak Oil, this is interesting.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/157824-mexico-s-declining-oil-production-clarion-call-for-cantarell
Mexico's Declining Oil Production: Clarion Call for Cantarell
The eighth largest oil field in the world will be dead by the end of next year. Shall I repeat that, or did you get it the first time? Like the Time to Die Speech of Rutger Hauer at the end of Blade Runner, the Cantarell complex has surely seen its share of ocean storms, human hopes, and stars since its discovery by a humble fisherman in 1976. If you’re wondering whether that fisherman has a name, the man who saw oil floating on the surface of the ocean as he gathered his nets, the answer is yes: Rudesindo Cantarell.

The days when you could find a supergiant oil field while fishing are over. Cantarell came late, in the oil age. That meant this global giant would receive all the best doctoring modern technology could provide. The result is that Cantarell was pumped out effectively and hard, especially after the technique to re-pressurize the field was adopted. This allowed for a spike high of daily production to be captured for several years, late in its life when a field would otherwise go into gentle decline. The result? Quicker monetization of the oil for the benefit of the Mexican state. But then the price: a catastrophic, fast crash

[Epoon]

46. Some good news, sadly not economic.

Much like David Brin I feel the Golden age is now. This is one more point supporting the assumption.

http://peacecenter.berkeley.edu/greatergood/2009april/Pinker054.php

Why is There Peace?
Our seemingly troubled times are routinely contrasted with idyllic images of hunter-gatherer societies, which allegedly lived in a state of harmony with nature and each other. The doctrine of the noble savage—the idea that humans are peaceable by nature and corrupted by modern institutions—pops up frequently in the writing of public intellectuals like, for example, Spanish philosopher José Ortega y Gasset, who argued that "war is not an instinct but an invention."

But now that social scientists have started to count bodies in different historical periods, they have discovered that the romantic theory gets it backward: Far from causing us to become more violent, something in modernity and its cultural institutions has made us nobler. In fact, our ancestors were far more violent than we are today. Indeed, violence has been in decline over long stretches of history, and today we are probably living in the most peaceful moment of our species' time on earth.

[Epoon]

47. Jail the suckers!

http://market-ticker.org/

America Is Running Out Of Rope

Now let's juxtapose this with the fact that every Congressperson took an oath to defend The Constitution against all enemies, both foreign and domestic.

So riddle me this my fellow Americans: How is it that Bernanke, Paulson, Geithner, and both Presidents Bush and Obama are still free men instead of being housed at GITMO? How is it that on that fateful night in September of 2008 when Bernanke and Paulson "briefed" Congress and demanded $700 billion in random and a blank check to back-door an unlimited amount in "guarantees" and "pass-throughs" to their banking buddies the Sargeant At Arms was not immediately called to place these goons under arrest pending indictment and prosecution?

The next question is equally obvious and leads one down some pretty disturbing paths: If there is NOT ONE man or woman Congress who will discharge THEIR oath of office, is there anyone left in this country who took an identical oath that will?

The worst part is that it didn't end with payment of the ransom. No, the banks didn't come clean, they didn't clear their balance sheets, they didn't take their losses using the backstop they had managed to secure through threat of imminent economic doom.

[DemReadingDU]

49. Yes, indeed

Thanks for all your links here, and on the weekend thread
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x473758


And welcome to DU!
:hi:

[Epoon]

50. Thank you and a couple more

http://stopmebeforeivoteagain.org/
Tough times for the comprador liberals
By Al Schumann on Sunday August 23 12:12 PM

On the same July day that the UC Board of Regents cut $813 million from UC budgets - setting in motion pay cuts, layoffs and campus cutbacks - the board quietly approved pay raises, stipends and other benefits for more than two dozen executives.

University officials were quick to characterize the increased pay in a positive light.

"It's really a story about cost savings," said Barbara French, a UCSF spokeswoman, adding that three people on her campus who won hefty pay increases took on new duties and deserved to be compensated.

It's the same ethos as the bankster bonuses and pay raises. None of them do anything for the essential functions of their institutions that couldn't be done better and cheaper by employees who have hit one of the institutional social glass ceilings. The only exceptional things these minor league compradors have to offer are their connections to each other, driven by the conviction that entrenchment is a socially beneficial entitlement. In good times, when the institutions are flush with paper wealth, there's some grumbling over that, easily dismissed as ressentiment by the anteroom clowns. In harder times, for everyone else, the elaborately fussified ad hominem dismissals get a little nastier, and the vulgar realities of chicken plucking gain immediacy.

http://www.counterpunch.org/
Neoliberalism, Charter Schools and the Chicago Model
Obama and Duncan's Education Policy:
Like Bush's, Only Worse

What the Obama administration is doing, in tandem with the Secretary of Education Arne Duncan, is part and parcel of typical neo-liberal policy making: wielding federal stimulus funds as a financial weapon to force all states to increase the amount of charter schools they host as well as force those states that do not have them to pass legislation authorizing them. Through financial arm-twisting at a time of disastrous economic crisis, the Obama administration plans to use the power of the federal government to create a much larger national market for charter school providers, be they for profit or non-profit, virtual charters, EMOs or single operators.

This is deeply troubling, for many states which do not want charter schools or have found the experiment to be less than adequate and in fact damaging to kids and funding, for traditional public schools will now be forced to choose stimulus money over policy, a form of economic extortion and increased federal and corporate control over decision making, especially at a time when many of these states are literally financial insolvent. This is another example of how disaster politics operates, only this time the disaster is not a natural disaster but an economic disaster that threatens public policies.
Ohio’s Corrupt Charter Schools

Public school advocates, specifically in the state of Ohio where charter school corruption is rampant, but elsewhere as well, say charter schools drain essential resources needed for public schools. Ohio’s Governor Strickland has called them "a destructive influence" on public education for a number of reasons. Consequently, the Governor tried two years ago to restrict the growth of charter schools but failed. This time, however, through a formula in his current budget bill for 2009, he would cut their funding by about 20 per cent and would deny them the chance to get extra government money. Instead he would make this funding available to public schools in Ohio's poorest traditional public school districts. Virtual online charter schools, the fastest growing sector of the charter school market, would face much larger cuts under the Governor’s proposed budget. When asked about Governor Strickland’s position on cutting charter school funding as it pertains to his own, Obama responded by skirting the issues Strickland raised and alluded instead to the bad-apple analogy:

“I know that part of his concern was prompted by some bad experiences with charters in Ohio that weren't up to snuff.”


http://dissidentvoice.org/2009/08/the-obstacles-to-real-health-care-reform-private-insurers-and-big-phrma/
The Obstacles to Real Health Care Reform: Private Insurers and Big PhRMA
In almost the same breath on August 17, the White House effectively dropped a real public option (that likely never existed) while Obama was telling the Veterans of Foreign Wars (VFW) that the Pentagon will escalate the Afghanistan/Pakistan war into a long-term conflict that will assure “more difficult days ahead.” He did so in defiance of international and Constitutional law, the lives and welfare of American forces, millions in both target countries, and lied at the same time saying: “This is not a war of choice. This is a war of necessity” in plain contradiction of the fact that in October 2001, US forces launched a long-planned premeditated attack against a non-belligerent country posing no threat to America.

Obama’s Central Asia agenda matches his domestic arrogance against the rights and welfare of millions of Americans. Denying them real health care reform is one of many ways he defiles the public interest in deference to the corporate ones he serves.

On financial matters, it’s trillions for Wall Street. On “defense,” it’s imperial wars and handouts to weapons and munitions makers, and on public health it’s promoting mass-innoculations of experimental, toxic vaccines and rejecting real health care reform – universal single-payer, the only real kind that all other Western nations provide. But not the richest country in the world more focused on corporate than public welfare.

Simply put, the obstacle to real health reform is the insurance and drug lobby’s stranglehold on Democrat and Republican administrations and Congress. Corporate lawyers draft new laws, sign-off on changes, and industry officials staff the FDA, CDC, and other related agencies, then return to high-paying jobs in the sectors they represent. Public welfare is unconsidered under a system favoring profits, so achieving real reform is near-nil. Whatever, if any legislation, passes, will make a dysfunctional system worse by rationing care, leaving growing millions uninsured, many others underinsured, while enriching insurers, drug companies, and large hospital chains

http://www.counterpunch.org/bacher08242009.html
Westlands Hoards Surplus Water
While Farmers Suffer

The disclosure of the hoarding of water by Westlands occurs as Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, Senator Diane Feinstein and California Legislators, pressured by corporate agribusiness, are pushing for the construction of a peripheral canal to increase water exports to Westlands and southern California. A coalition of fishing groups, Delta family farmers, Indian Tribes and principled environmentalists is fighting the canal, an enormously costly government boondoggle that would result in pushing Central Valley salmon, Delta smelt, longfin smelt, striped bass, green sturgeon and other California Delta fish populations into the abyss of extinction.

On August 18, the California Legislature held a joint hearing of the Assembly Parks and Wildlife and Senate Resources and Water Committees to review a controversial package of five water bills that Jennings describes as a "road map" to the construction of the peripheral canal as Schwarzenegger, Westlands growers and the Latino Water Coalition held a rally pushing for a peripheral canal and more dams at the capitol. Canal opponents, including Barbara Barrigan-Parrilla, campaign director of Restore the Delta, Mark Franco, headman of the Winnemem Wintu Tribe, and Zeke Grader, executive director of the Pacific Coast Federation of Fishermen's Associations, and others at the hearing spoke against the mad rush by the Legislature to push through a package that would result in the destruction of the Delta estuary and its fish.

"The peripheral canal is a big, stupid idea that doesn’t make any sense from a tribal environmental perspective,” Franco said during a rally at the Capitol on July 7. “Building a canal to save the Delta is like a doctor inserting an arterial bypass from your shoulder to your hand– it will cause your elbow to die just like taking water out of the Delta through a peripheral canal will cause the Delta to die.”

During a recent town hall meeting in Fresno featuring Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, the UFW's Arturo Rodriguez was the only member of the meeting panel who didn’t call for the construction of the peripheral canal and more dams or overturning the biological opinions under the Endangered Species Act. In an interview with me, Rodriguez pointed out the contradiction between agribusiness asking for new water infrastructure when farmworkers are denied clean drinking water in the fields.

[DemReadingDU]

53. Thanks, great!

This is why I love reading SMW. There is always a wide selection of articles to read giving a representation of analysis that is not heard on the TV.

[tclambert]

81. "But we never promised not to sell it!"

Lobbyists don't buy "influence," they just buy "access," which they then use to influence lawmakers. Poor people just need to hire better lobbyists.

[Epoon]

48. Hmm

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
When At First You Don't Succeed, Bring In the Reserves



In the H.41 Report, the Fed shows a credit of $11 billion dollars in Gold Stock held primarily in New York, Chicago, Atlanta, and San Francisco, with lesser amounts at each of the Regional Banks. This gold is part of the collateral against the Federal Reserve Notes in circulation, and has been valued at an official rate of $42.22 per troy ounce for many years.

1. Gold held "under earmark" at Federal Reserve Banks for foreign and international accounts is not included in the gold stock of the United States; see table 3.13, line 3. Gold stock is valued at $42.22 per fine troy ounce

By calculation the Fed has 261,511,132 fine troy ounces on its books. If the Fed revalued their gold stock at a more reasonable market price of let's say $1000 per ounce, then this would immediately add $261 billion to the Fed's Balance Sheet IF the gold is really held by the Fed without encumbrances.

One has to wonder why the Fed has never taken the revaluation on its Balance Sheet for gold since the value of $42.22 is so clearly an historic artifact. They perform much more market based calculations for the Special Drawing Rights and their Foreign Exchange holdings. One certainly does not need to sell the gold in order to monetize it, since that has already been accomplished, albeit at a much lower rate.

One can only wonder.

[Demeter]

58. It Probably Isn't Really There Anymore

Or it's been used for collateral so much that the total paper it's backing adds up to market rate.

[Epoon]

61. I think it is closer to this

Along with this story was one about Gold Paint being counted as a transfer of Gold from the US. I can't find it now.


http://waronyou.com/topics/germanys-gold-is-in-us-custody-bundesbank-confirms/
But Keiser’s documentary may be sensational for getting an acknowledgement from the German central bank, the Bundesbank, that Germany’s gold reserves are actually in the custody of the United States. This is a detail the Bundesbank long has denied to others who have inquired and is potentially a matter of great controversy in Germany. It raises the question of whether the German gold reserves are actually intact at all or whether they have been used by the U.S. government as part of its long-time gold price suppression scheme or have been comingled and diminished with the gold reserves of other countries held in the United States.

While Keiser’s documentary does not identify the Bundesbank spokesman who confirmed the transfer of the German gold reserves to New York, it does provide the date and location of the confirmation: March 17, 2008, at Bundesbank headquarters in Frankfurt. The documentary shows that Keiser was there and got the interview.

[Epoon]

51. Corporate personhood has been challenged in supreme court

Ok I'm lazy and blatantly stole this from REDDIT. Correct me if I posted incorrectly.
If it is a post from a press release is it still limited to four paragraphs?
http://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/9dfod/corporate_personhood_has_been_challenged_in/
On August 1st Democracy Unlimited filed a brief in the U.S. Supreme Court challenging “corporate personhood,” the illegitimate and undemocratic legal doctrine which allows courts to overturn democratically elected laws that attempt to control corporate harm and abuse.

Democracy Unlimited joined the Program on Corporations Law & Democracy, the Women’s International League for Peace & Freedom, Shays2: The Western Massachusetts Committee on Corporations & Democracy, and the Clements Foundation in making the legal argument. The brief was drafted and filed by attorney Jeff Clements, who represented all five organizations in the matter.

The groups filed the brief in the case of Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, urging the Supreme Court not to overturn laws preventing corporations from making political contributions in federal elections. The amicus curiae, or “friend of the court,” brief argues that corporations do not have the same Constitutional rights as people. As such, democratically enacted regulations of corporations do not violate the Constitution’s guarantee of free speech.

“The notion that corporations have the same speech rights as people under our Bill of Rights is contrary to the words, history, spirit and intent of our Constitution,” said Clements. “The organizations that joined to bring these arguments to the Court have worked with others for many years to empower democratic self-government. They remind us that corporations do not vote, speak, or act as people do, but are products of government policy to achieve economic and charitable ends. As such, corporations need not be allowed to influence our elections if Congress and State governments judge that such influence is detrimental to democracy.”

The Supreme Court is considering overturning federal campaign regulations for corporations, originally enacted in 1907, and may soon overrule previous Supreme Court decisions that have upheld the Constitutionality of legislative restrictions on corporate money in politics.

The case now before the Court began when a tax-exempt non-profit corporation calling itself Citizens United challenged the Constitutionality of a federal ban on expenditures for “electioneering communications” by corporations and labor unions within sixty days of an election. The ban is part of the federal Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002. Under the Act, corporations and labor unions may still contribute to Political Action Committees.

Citizens United argued that the restrictions under the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act violated the Constitution as applied to the corporation that sought to distribute an anti-Hillary Clinton movie during the 2008 presidential primaries. A panel of three federal district court judges upheld the regulation of corporate expenditures, and agreed that the Federal Election Commission could enforce the law. The District Court relied on a 2003 Supreme Court case, McConnell v. Federal Election Comm’n, 540 U.S. 93 (2003), that had ruled that the corporate expenditure regulation did not violate the free speech guarantees of the First Amendment. Citizens United appealed to the Supreme Court.

If the Supreme Court overrules Austin and McConnell, First Amendment rights claimed by corporations will be significantly expanded, and local, state, and federal governments will be further restricted in the ability to regulate corporations and corporate influence on our democratic processes.

The brief filed by Democracy Unlimited argues that corporations are legal entities created by state or federal law for economic, charitable or other purposes, and were never intended to be included within the Constitution’s Bill of Rights.

The brief also highlights the fact that the doctrine that corporations are “persons” under the due process and equal protection clauses of the Fourteenth Amendment is doubtful, and an activist federal judiciary should not intervene to prevent elected officials from protecting the integrity of the electoral process.

The Supreme Court will hear further argument in the case in September.

A copy of the amicus brief can be read here: www.clementsllc.com.

For further information contact:

Jeff Clements, Clements Law Office LLC, 978-287-4901, [email protected]

Edit: If you've read this far (thanks!) you might wanna join join this facebook group

or, bookmark the sites http://www.ultimatecivics.com/

http://www.democracyunlimited.org/

http://www.citizensunited.org/

to stay up to date (thanks)

[Hugin]

55. I'm pretty sure Press Releases are exempt from the 4 para rule.

Due to the fact... Somebody wants the whole thing out there.

[Demeter]

59. Good Luck with That

I can see Scalia in action now. Maybe he'd have a stroke over the audacity of reining in corporate bribery....

[Hawkowl]

64. This will fail

The SC will never invalidate corporate person-hood. I think this is merely setting the stage for the first real stage in taking back our country from fascism-- A constitutional amendment banning corporate person hood and explicitly removing limited liability. Until this happens corporations will own the government.

[DemReadingDU]

52. Reuters Felix Salmon: Delusional Wall Street

8/24/09 Stock markets reflect increasingly delusional Wall Street by John Xenakis

The Dow Industrials reached a 2009 high on Friday, but most analysts believe that a major correction is coming. Speaking Friday on PBS's Marketplace, Reuters financial blogger Felix Salmon said the following:

"The markets haven't capitulated yet. They still seem to be in this weird delusional state they've been in for the past few months. And so long as there isn't something absolutely gruesome out there, there's no reason why they shouldn't stay delusional for the foreseeable future. Eventually something is going to set them off. It's going to cause something of a panic, and the panic will snowball, and you're going to see a bunch of selling again."

This quote explains what's going on in the markets today, and what's likely to be coming in the near future.

If you look at what happened last summer, it was almost the same story. The stock market was little changed all summer. Nothing happened until after Labor Day, when the Fannie/Freddie and Lehman crises broke at the same time. That's just how things are in August. Everyone is on vacation or taking the day off. Everyone is on auto-pilot.

If interested, continue reading Xenakis's article for market capitulation, "generational market crash", the five major international financial crises: the 1637 Tulipomania bubble, the South Sea bubble of the 1710s-20s, the bankruptcy of the French monarchy in the 1789, the Panic of 1857, and the 1929 Wall Street crash. Also discussion about short selling, charts and graphs. Very fascinating.

http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi-bin/D.PL?xct=gd.e090824#e090824

[Epoon]

62. NY Fed Launches Interactive Maps Of Economic Collapse

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ny-fed-launches-interactive-maps-economic-collapse
NY Fed Launches Interactive Maps Of Economic Collapse
The kind folks at the New York Fed have launched a useful service whereby citizens can look at the collapse of the credit economy in real, interactive time as they buy Fannie, Freddie and Citi stock (which at last check had a pro forma market cap higher than Bank of America).

The link for the maps can be found here in case anyone needs ongoing confirmation of the prevlance of red shoots.

At first glance, it seems that delinquent auto loans is where much more red is still due, while the bloodletting in mortgages has reached quite epic proportions and shows no sign of abating.

Map itself.
http://data.newyorkfed.org/creditconditions/

[mnhtnbb]

65. Ozy, that cartoon deserves its own thread in GD!

:rofl:

[Robbien]

71. Taylor Bean Files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Taylor, Bean will operate on a “scaled-down basis and begin work recovering, restructuring and possibly liquidating its assets,” the company said today in a statement. The Ocala, Florida-based company also announced the appointment of two new directors, Bill Maloney and Bruce Layman, and the naming of Navigant Capital Advisors’ Neil Luria as restructuring officer.

“This is a very complicated business, and the speed of its collapse has been stunning,” Luria said in the statement. “Much remains to be done, but we are committed to creating and realizing the value of the company’s assets.”

The announcement comes after Taylor Bean was expelled from the ranks of mortgage lenders approved to do business with government-sponsored mortgage agencies earlier this month because of concerns about possible fraud, the government said at the time. Taylor Bean said today it believes the decisions were related to its involvement with Colonial and that it has, or will soon, appeal the actions.

The terminations followed a failed attempt by Taylor Bean to lead an investor group that would pay $300 million for a controlling stake in Colonial, one of its lenders that has since failed and been taken over by BB&T Corp. Taylor Bean said it is in talks with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the receiver for Colonial, about getting access to about 100 accounts frozen by Colonial.

Closely-held Taylor Bean does business across the U.S. through loan brokers and other lenders. It ranked 12th among U.S. mortgage originators in the first half of this year with $17 billion of loans, or 1.7 percent of the total, according to industry newsletter Inside Mortgage Finance. On Aug. 5, the firm said it had fired 2,000 people.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aXTpjNR73TpY


Just to rehash the quality of business Taylor Bean provides:

Nearly 30 percent of the 146,120 FHA-insured mortgages Taylor Bean had in its portfolio were at least 30 days delinquent as of June, according to HUD's Neighborhood Watch Web site. That was the greatest percentage of late mortgages among FHA's 10 largest banks nationwide.

The HUD data also shows that, of Taylor Bean's mortgages, 92 percent originated during the past two years, which made it the fastest-growing FHA underwriter, surpassing Wells Fargo Bank, Chase Home Finance, and Citi Mortgage. That mirrored what many critics of the company said last week, citing that Taylor Bean grew far too fast without enough internal controls.

. . .

Former Taylor Bean employees who spoke to the Star-Banner last week said they knew there were problems with many of the loans they made. They said the company they once worked for lacked the internal controls to ensure the information they had about borrowers was accurate.

They said the company's computer programs keeping track of customer information was riddled with problems and too easily accessible by brokers outside the company, with no checks in place to make sure loan information was accurate. Some former employees said customer information was often inconsistent and inaccurate, leaving some in the company to wonder why many of Taylor Bean's homeowners ever were approved for a mortgage.

http://www.ocala.com/article/20090811/ARTICLES/908111008/1402/NEWS?Title=High-default-risk-seen-on-Taylor-Bean-loans

and

The FHA said in a written statement Tuesday that Taylor Bean failed to submit its required annual financial report and failed to inform the FHA that TBW's independent auditors ended their examination of the company when they found "certain irregular transactions that raised concerns of fraud."

In addition to the loan suspension, the FHA is also recommending that two top company officials be temporarily banned from doing mortgage business with the federal government.

The FHA alleges that TBW President Ray Bowman and TBW Chief Executive Officer Paul Allen submitted false or misleading documents to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

http://www.ocala.com/article/20090806/ARTICLES/908061013/1001/NEWS01?Title=Hundreds-left-jobless


And these guys are filing a Chapter 11? A restructuring? They have been barred from making loans and their loan servicing business has been taken over by BoA. All of their employees have been fired with no one left in the place except the execs. There is no money and their name is mud.

What are they going to restructure into?

[Demeter]

84. They Have a Novel Excuse: "The Bank Made Me Do It!"

Maybe they can go into joke=writing instead of mortgage-writing.

[Robbien]

86. Taylor Bean Blames Bankruptcy On Regulation

Taylor Bean & Whitaker Mortgage Corp. has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, saying in a statement Monday that actions by government regulators in the past few weeks have "crippled the company's business operation."

http://bankruptcy.law360.com/registrations/user_registration?article_id=118182&concurrency_check=false


Only CNBC and their viewers will believe that one.

[tclambert]

73. Fannie Mae up a ridiculous amount again today. 50 cents (=42%)

+42% in a single day! My investment has now doubled in value. That's nice, but it is making me nervous. I still haven't figured out why the price has surged in the past few weeks. An AP story quotes an analyst who says there is no discernible reason for it. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fannie-Freddie-shares-soar-as-apf-2692392307.html?x=0&.v=2

"Double, double toil and trouble,
Fire burn, and cauldron bubble . . ."

Did someone say "bubble?" It is possible to make money investing in bubbles. But I'm not sure it is possible to do so intentionally. How do you know a bubble will bubble ahead of it actually bubbling? How do you know it's really a bubble until after it bursts? You can easily see how you could have made money afterward. The trick is to see it before it happens.

Gotta go read my horoscope and call the psychic hotline. (Question 1 for the psychic hotline is always "What were you guys doing on Sept. 10th, 2001? Didn't you get any weird vibes you wanted to warn people about?")

[Robbien]

77. Bundling and tranche-ing loans into AAA securities is on the rise again

Wall Street may have discovered a way out from under the bad debt and risky mortgages that have clogged the financial markets. The would-be solution probably sounds familiar: It's a lot like what got banks in trouble in the first place.

In recent months investment banks have been repackaging old mortgage securities and offering to sell them as new products, a plan that's nearly identical to the complicated investment packages at the heart of the market's collapse.

"There is a little bit of deja vu in this," said Arizona State University economics professor Herbert Kaufman.

But Kaufman said the strategy could help solve one of the lingering problems of the financial meltdown: What to do about hundreds of billions of dollars in mortgages that are still choking the system and making bankers reluctant to make new loans.

These are holdovers from the housing bubble, when home prices soared, banks bought risky mortgages, bundled them with solid mortgages and sold them all as top-rated bonds. With investors eager to buy these bonds, lenders came up with increasingly risky mortgages, sometimes for people who could not afford them. It didn't matter because, in the end, the bonds would all get AAA ratings.

When the housing market tanked, figuring out how much those bonds were worth became nearly impossible. The banks and insurance companies that owned them knew there were still some good mortgages, so they didn't want to sell everything at fire-sale prices. But buyers knew there were many worthless loans, too, so they didn't want to pay full price for the remnants of a real estate bubble

In recent months, banks have tiptoed toward a possible solution, one in which the really good bonds get bundled with some not-quite-so-good bonds. Banks sweeten the deal for investors and, voila, the newly repackaged bonds receive AAA ratings, a stamp of approval that means they're the safest investment you can buy.

"You've now taken what was an A-rated security and made it eligible for AAA treatment," said Richard Reilly, a partner with White & Case in New York.

As for the bottom-of-the-barrel bonds that are left over, those are getting sold off for pennies on the dollar to investors and hedge funds willing to take big risk for the chance of a big reward.

Kaufman said he's optimistic about the recent string of deals because, unlike during the real estate boom, investors in these new bonds know what they're buying.

"We're back to financial engineering, absolutely," he said. "But I think it's being done at least differently than it was before the meltdown."

The sweetener at the heart of the deal is a guarantee: Investors who buy into the really risky pool agree to also take some of the risk away from those who buy into the safer pool. The safe investors get paid first. The risk-taking investors lose money first.

That's how the safe stack of bonds gets it AAA rating, which is crucial to the deal. That rating lets banks sell to pension funds, insurance companies and other investors that are required to hold only top-rated investments.

"There's no voodoo going on here. It's just math," said Sue Allon, chief executive of Allonhill, which helps investors analyze such hard-to-price investments.

Financial gurus call it a "resecuritization of real estate mortgage investment conduits." On Wall Street, it goes by the acronym Re-Remic (it rhymes with epidemic).

"It actually makes a lot of fundamental sense," said Brian Bowes, the head of mortgage trading at Hexagon Securities in New York. "It's taking a bond that doesn't necessarily have a natural buyer and creating two bonds that might have a natural buyer for each."

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-rebirth-of-financial-engineering-2009-8

[Demeter]

85. That's Not Math; That's Just Nuts