STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday August 3, 2009

[Demeter]

Source: DU

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday August 3, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 4

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 31, 2009

Dow... 9,171.61 +17.15 +0.19%
Nasdaq...1,978.50 -5.80 -0.29%
S&P 500... 987.48 +0.73 +0.07%
Gold future... 955.80 +18.50 +1.97%
10-Yr Bond... 3.48 -0.13 -3.63%
30-Year Bond 4.30 -0.11 -2.58%

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

Handy Links - Market Data and News:
Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance
    Google Finance    LayoffDaily

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
    Brad DeLong    Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman

---

This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.


No link yet.

---

No, your eyes do not deceive you! I'm starting this early, because the way things are going, I have no idea when or if I could post on Monday morning. I think Demeter bit off more than she can chew, this time....

[AnneD]

1. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: first recommendation evah...

As I mentioned on WEE, this week will be popping. Lots of happy talk going on so you know the shit is about to hit the fan.
Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Demeter]

9. Congratulations, AnneD!

Just goes to show, we marketeers never sleep...

[AnneD]

40. Some one has to watch the money....

Last night on PBS An American Experience- they covered the Depression. It was worth a view.

www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/crash/



it is about an hour, but an hour well spent for us younger financial wonks.

JK Galbraith is on there along with some good first person interviews.

My song choice....Paper Moon.

never feel a thing is real
When I'm away from you
Out of your embrace
The world's a temporary parking place

Mmm, mm, mm, mm
A bubble for a minute
Mmm, mm, mm, mm
You smile, the bubble has a rainbow in it

Say, its only a paper moon
Sailing over a cardboard sea
But it wouldn't be make-believe
If you believed in me

Yes, it's only a canvas sky
Hanging over a muslin tree
But it wouldn't be make-believe
If you believed in me

Without your love
It's a honky-tonk parade
Without your love
It's a melody played in a penny arcade

It's a Barnum and Bailey world
Just as phony as it can be
But it wouldn't be make-believe
If you believed in me

[Demeter]

45. Watching It Is About All I Get To Do!

[truedelphi]

52. Great choice for a song to describe the economy

That "Paper Moon" is definitely real for the affluent portion of our nation.

Now is the time to buy.

A person has to know what they are doing though - because this "recovery" is another jobless economy, and therefore will evaporate at some point.

What will determine who is wise and who is foolish is who gets out the day before the "recovery" goes sour.

I give it three years tops.

[Pirate Smile]

2. Well, news for Monday has already started coming out like Ford's sales for July so why not post it

now. :)

[Demeter]

4. Be my guest!

[Demeter]

3. Good Morning All! Ozy Sends His Greetings from an Undisclosed Location

Well, it's morning somewhere!

As promised, I'm starting the thread for Ozy today. I'm starting it a bit early, because I don't expect to be anywhere near a computer in the morning, due to some overcommitment on my part in the employment area.

It should be a commitment, for sure. Next time, talk me out of it. Please!

[rfranklin]

13. It's morning in Oz....

Approriately enough trading has already started in Oz (Australia)


Australia's S&P/ASX 200 inched up 0.1% to 4,249.40, while South Korea's Kospi was flat at 1,557.65. New Zealand's NZX 50 gained 0.5% to 3,030.65.


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-stocks-post-small-gains-nissan-lifts-nikkei-2009-08-02

[Hugin]

17. Morning Demeter.

:hi:

Nice to see SMW up with the early birds! :)

[JNelson6563]

22. Many thanks Demeter!

I don't post here ofren but always check the Stock thread. Thank you for posting in Ozy's absence. :toast:

Julie

[Demeter]

5. Reports Due Today

Aug 03 10:00 Construction Spending Jun NA -0.6% -0.9%
Aug 03 10:00 ISM Index Jul NA 46.5 44.8
Aug 03 14:00 Auto Sales Jul NA NA 3.4M
Aug 03 14:00 Truck Sales Jul NA NA 3.8M

[Demeter]

6. The Latest on Oil

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Demeter]

8. Shell and Exxon profits tumble

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/95ff0f4a-7d3b-11de-b8ee-00144feabdc0.html

By Ed Crooks and Javier Blas in London

Published: July 30 2009 20:16 | Last updated: July 31 2009 01:17

Profits at two of the world’s biggest oil companies, ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell, have plummeted after tumbling international oil prices and weaker demand for energy battered revenues.

Exxon, the largest US oil group, and Shell, the biggest in Europe, on Thursday unveiled post-tax profits for the second quarter that were roughly a third of those a year ago.

Peter Voser, Shell’s chief executive who took over at the beginning of the month, warned that the company would need to make “substantial” job cuts to restore earnings. He said the company faced soft demand, excess capacity and high costs. “Conditions are likely to remain challenging for some time, and we are not banking on a quick recovery,” said Mr Voser.

Rex Tillerson, Exxon’s chairman and chief executive, said: “Global economic conditions continue to impact the energy industry both in the volatility of commodity prices and reduced demand for products.”

Both companies blamed the global economic crisis and softer demand for the collapse in their revenues. The steep fall in profits follows a slide in oil prices from last year’s record high of $147 a barrel to a low of $32. On Thursday, US benchmark crude West Texas Intermediate settled at $66.92 a barrel.

The effects of volatile prices were evident in Exxon’s 66 per cent drop in net income to $3.95bn, the steepest fall in profits for more than a decade, and Shell’s 70 per cent decline in post-tax profit to $3.24bn.

[UpInArms]

27. Oil at one-month high above $71 on economy prospects (it's really about the dollar)

but the lie goes on and on ...

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE56T3EA20090803?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil rose to a one-month high to top $71 a barrel on Monday as positive Chinese economic data and firmer equities bolstered hopes of economic recovery and higher energy demand <MKTS/GLOB>.

U.S. crude added $1.80 to $71.25 a barrel by 1128 GMT, having hit an intra-day high of $71.30, the highest since July 1 according to Reuters charts. Brent crude gained $1.37 to $73.07.

"We are getting close to the resistance area for crude oil and we need the continued support of equities," said Olivier Jakob, analyst at Petromatrix. "As long as this continues, the dips are going to be bought."

European shares hit a new high for 2009, led by banks. .EU

The latest gain in oil prices brings oil within sight of the 2009 high of $73.38 set in June, where Jakob and other analysts who use past price moves to predict direction see key resistance that prices could struggle to rally beyond.

On Friday, crude rallied almost 4 percent as data showed the U.S. economy shrank at a smaller-than-expected 1 percent annualized pace in the second quarter, raising hopes the recession was easing.

...more...

[Demeter]

7. Wall Street profits from trades with Fed

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e84383dc-7f8c-11de-85dc-00144feabdc0.html

By Henny Sender in New York

Published: August 2 2009 23:04 | Last updated: August 2 2009 23:04

Wall Street banks are reaping outsized profits by trading with the Federal Reserve, raising questions about whether the central bank is driving hard enough bargains in its dealings with private sector counterparties, officials and industry executives say.

The Fed has emerged as one of Wall Street’s biggest customers during the financial crisis, buying massive amounts of securities to help stabilise the markets. In some cases, such as the market for mortgage-backed securities, the Fed buys more bonds than any other party.

However, the Fed is not a typical market player. In the interests of transparency, it often announces its intention to buy particular securities in advance. A former Fed official said this strategy enables banks to sell these securities to the Fed at an inflated price.

The resulting profits represent a relatively hidden form of support for banks, and Wall Street has geared up to take advantage. Barclays, for example, e-mails clients with news on the Fed’s balance sheet, detailing the share of the market in particular securities held by the Fed.

“You can make big money trading with the government,” said an executive at one leading investment management firm. “The government is a huge buyer and seller and Wall Street has all the pricing power.”

A former official of the US Treasury and the Fed said the situation had reached the point that “everyone games them. Their transparency hurts them. Everyone picks their pocket.”

The central bank’s approach to securities purchases was defended by William Dudley, president of the New York Fed, which is responsible for market operations. “We believe that opting for transparency is a greater good,” he said. “If we didn’t have transparency, we’d be criticised on other grounds.”

However, another official familiar with the matter said the central bank “has heard that dealers load up on securities to sell to the Fed. There is concern, but policy goals override other considerations.”

Barney Frank, chairman of the House financial services committee, said the potential profiteering may be part of the price for stabilising the financial system.

“You can’t rescue the credit system without benefiting some of the people in it.” Still, Mr Frank said Congress would be watching. “We don’t want the Fed to drive the hardest possible bargain, but we don’t want them to get ripped off.”

The growing Fed activity has coincided with a general widening of market spreads – the difference between bid and offer prices – as the number of market participants declines. Wider spreads enable banks, in their capacity as market-makers, to make more profit...

Brad Hintz, an analyst at AllianceBernstein, said he doubted that spreads would ever return to those levels, a development that could be pleasing to the Fed.

“They want to help Wall Street make money,” he said.

[Demeter]

10. Bernanke explains Fed’s new openness

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/111737c2-7d35-11de-b8ee-00144feabdc0.html

By Edward Luce in Washington

Published: July 30 2009 19:19 | Last updated: July 30 2009 21:41

Ben Bernanke has explained his decision to turn the normally secretive US Federal Reserve into something of an open house, saying his unusually large number of recent public appearances are the result of the “extraordinary” times the country faces.

The Fed chairman has turned up at everything from a 60 Minutes television interview to a Kansas City town hall session over the past few weeks, prompting some to wonder if he is trying to ensure he is re­appointed when his four-year term ends in January.

However, Mr Bernanke said he was answering a clear public need. “Normally Fed chairmen don’t do this kind of thing because we want to avoid causing near-term market volatility as people try to anticipate our next FOMC meeting,” he told the Financial Times this week.

“But this is an extraordinary period. We want to answer the questions we know people have about what hit them in this economic crisis, what the Fed is doing about it and how we expect economic developments to play out.”

The Fed’s new openness is well timed. This week, as the debate continues over the bank’s role in the financial crisis and proposed prudential powers, Gallup showed it is held in lower esteem than the Internal Revenue Service.

More seriously, there is a populist headwind in Congress among some lawmakers who want to remove the Fed’s monetary independence.

Cynics believe Mr Bernanke is using this public relations outreach to ensure he is reappointed next January. But Mr Bernanke says the goal is to educate the public about what the Fed does at a time when it keeps getting caught in the crossfire over its role in the crisis and its future prudential powers. The first question Mr Bernanke received last Sunday was from a social worker who wanted to know what the Fed actually did. The softly spoken chairman told another questioner that he did not wish to be the “chairman who presided over the second Great Depression”.

One bill, backed by Ron Paul, the maverick Republican, has 250 co-sponsors and would, in the Fed’s view, rob it of autonomy by giving auditors the right to look at its monetary policy decisions.

As a result, since January Mr Bernanke has made himself available to Capitol Hill, giving 11 public testimonies, holding 25 one-to-one meetings with lawmakers and meeting nine groups from both parties.

Mr Bernanke’s outreach completes a revolution in the way the Fed does business that began under his predecessor, Alan Greenspan. Until the early 1990s, the Fed did not even communicate the results of its monetary policy meetings, leaving it up to markets to work out what interest rate decision it had made. Today, it publishes full minutes from the meetings.

Mr Bernanke, who had a 75 per cent approval rating from international investors in a Bloomberg poll last week, faces a gruelling autumn when Congress looks at controversial proposals to give new powers to the Fed as a systemic risk regulator.

The chairman’s personal standing remains high. “I would be astonished if Ben isn’t re­appointed,” says Alice Rivlin, a former vice-chairman of the Fed. “He has become very good at interacting with people beyond the usual circles and he is good at avoiding traditional Fed-speak.”

[Demeter]

11. US regulator criticises Obama bank plan

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/55fb2b66-7c66-11de-a7bf-00144feabdc0.html

By Francesco Guerrera and Joanna Chung in Washington

Published: July 29 2009 23:30 | Last updated: July 29 2009 23:30

The Obama administration’s plan to give US states more power to protect consumers from unfair banking practices would make it more difficult and costly for large lenders to operate across the country, a financial regulator has warned.

John Dugan, who oversees national banks as comptroller of the currency, told the Financial Times that the proposals to create a federal consumer protection agency and give states more leeway to crack down on unfair practices would have negative “ramifications for companies operating across state lines”.

Mr Dugan, who faces the loss of some of his powers if the plan is implemented, argued that repealing the 145-year-old system that gives federal banking rules precedence over state laws would confuse banks and discourage them from offering consumer products across the country.

“To have a single set of standards has been very beneficial to developing and innovating products,” Mr Dugan said, adding that he wanted to keep national banks “immune” from state regulation.

The remarks by the head of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which is part of the Treasury, the department behind the proposed rules, shows the political high stakes surrounding the post-crisis regulatory framework.

Since the plan was announced by Tim Geithner, Treasury secretary, in June, Congress, regulators, banks and large companies such as General Electric have been trying to influence the final shape of any new laws.

Some lawmakers have opposed the administration’s plans to give the Federal Reserve powers to police all financial groups whose failure could endanger the system, and banks have criticised the new consumer agency.

As part of a system introduced during the civil war, federal rules enforced by the OCC override state law. The administration plan, however, would enable the new consumer agency to draft minimum consumer protection standards, leaving states free to adopt more stringent rules.

Mr Dugan said this would cause legal uncertainty and additional red tape for banks, creating a situation akin to the state-based regulation of insurance – a system that has been criticised for its complexity and bureaucracy.

Treasury officials argue that the new system would balance federal and state regulations and prevent large banks from using national rules to get around tough state consumer laws. Before the crisis, the OCC was criticised for using its powers to “pre-empt” state laws cracking down on predatory lending practices, particularly to subprime borrowers.

In 2003, Mr Dugan’s predecessor John Hawke used pre-emption powers to decree that a predatory lending law in Georgia did not apply to national banks – a move seen as a warning to other states not to interfere in the regulation of US-wide institutions.

Mr Dugan said the problem was not national regulation but lax credit standards by non-bank mortgage lenders, which can be regulated at state level.

[Demeter]

12. Lithuania may need IMF loan, says president

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2bdd421a-7d29-11de-b8ee-00144feabdc0.html

By Gideon Rachman in Vilnius and Andrew Ward in Stockholm

Published: July 30 2009 18:05 | Last updated: July 30 2009 18:05

Lithuania’s new president has admitted that her country could be forced to seek help from the International Monetary Fund if it fails in efforts to raise more money from foreign capital markets to prop up its teetering economy.

Dalia Grybauskaite, who became Lithuania’s first woman president when she was sworn in this month, said the finance ministry was considering “one more shot” at raising money this year after a €500m ($703m, £427m) bond issue in June.

However, in an interview with the Financial Times, she acknowledged that an IMF loan might prove necessary “if external conditions will not allow Lithuania to refinance our debts . . . if the markets are closed”.

Lithuania has so far resisted following the example of neighbouring Latvia, which received a €7.5bn emergency loan from the IMF and European Union in December, as the Baltic countries have plunged into deep recession.

But this week’s announcement of a steeper-than-expected 22 per cent drop in second quarter gross domestic product has increased doubts over Lithuania’s ability to weather the storm without international support.

Ms Grybauskaite, a martial arts black belt nicknamed the “Iron Lady”, was elected by a landslide margin in May on a promise to rebuild the economy and increase government transparency.

She took an early step to tackle the country’s ballooning budget deficit on Thursday by signing a law that would reduce public sector pay by an average of 5 per cent – the second such cut this year. The IMF said it was an important move that would help place “the country’s budget finances on a sounder longer-term footing and was necessary to address tight financing conditions”.

All three Baltic countries – Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia – are in the grips of deep recession after their over-heated economies fell victim to the global credit crunch. The downturn followed an era of rapid growth since the trio, all former Soviet states, joined the EU in 2004.

Each of the Baltic trio is battling to avoid a currency devaluation that would break their prized peg to the euro – a central pillar of economic policy in the region as the countries strive for membership of the single currency.

Speculation has mounted in financial markets that all three will be forced to devalue to make their economies more competitive. However, Ms Grybauskaite, a former finance minister and EU budget commissioner, ruled out such a move.

The fate of the Baltic economies is being watched across Europe amid fears that they could trigger devaluations and defaults in eastern and central Europe.

Sweden and other Nordic countries are especially sensitive because their banks expanded aggressively in the region and now face a rising tide of bad loans.

[Festivito]

14. Debt: 07/30/2009 11,581,201,791,282.14 (DOWN 30,015,543,818.92) (Both down.)

(Debt goes down heartily, FICA goes down goodly. Good evening and a full good day to all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,240,039,191,481.46 + 4,341,162,599,800.68
DOWN 26,031,384,097.19 + DOWN 3,984,159,721.73

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.77, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 306,983,942 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $37,725.76.
A family of three owes $113,177.27. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 1,562,019,341.34.
The average for the last 30 days would be 1,197,548,161.69.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 132 reports in 191 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging -0.51B$ per report, -0.24B$/day so far.
There were 207 reports in 303 days of FY2009 averaging 7.52B$ per report, 5.14B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,270 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.1 and 18.1T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/30/2009 11,581,201,791,282.14 BHO (UP 954,324,742,369.06 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,556,476,894,369.70 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/10/2009 -000,364,273,300.28 ---
07/13/2009 -000,000,617,291.42 ------ Mon
07/14/2009 +000,244,233,965.61 ------------********
07/15/2009 +057,721,794,648.52 ------------**********
07/16/2009 +016,136,405,834.08 ------------**********
07/17/2009 +000,062,427,388.38 ------------*******
07/20/2009 +000,171,809,229.69 ------------******** Mon
07/21/2009 -000,321,987,025.18 ---
07/22/2009 +000,261,059,305.61 ------------********
07/23/2009 +010,040,233,982.08 ------------**********
07/24/2009 -000,124,358,216.07 ---
07/27/2009 +000,077,777,899.40 ------------******* Mon
07/28/2009 +000,420,333,618.55 ------------********
07/29/2009 +000,733,026,310.02 ------------********
07/30/2009 -026,031,384,097.19 -

59,026,482,251.80 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,916,569,988,023.07 in last 315 days.
That's 1,917B$ in 315 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 188% of that highest year ever only in 315 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 315 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3994354&mesg_id=3994398

[Festivito]

60. Debt: 07/31/2009 11,669,251,349,504.65 (UP 88,049,558,222.51) (Up 95B.)

(Debt goes up a lot for a day. FICA drops, end of month.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,335,573,300,422.11 + 4,333,678,049,082.54
UP 95,534,108,940.65 + DOWN 7,484,550,718.14

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.77, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 306,991,142 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,011.69.
A family of three owes $114,035.06. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 6,555,591,618.11.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,025,953,573.89.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 133 reports in 192 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging -0.12B$ per report, 0.03B$/day so far.
There were 208 reports in 304 days of FY2009 averaging 7.91B$ per report, 5.41B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,269 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.4 and 18.5T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/31/2009 11,669,251,349,504.65 BHO (UP 1,042,374,300,591.57 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,644,526,452,592.20 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/13/2009 -000,000,617,291.42 ------ Mon
07/14/2009 +000,244,233,965.61 ------------********
07/15/2009 +057,721,794,648.52 ------------**********
07/16/2009 +016,136,405,834.08 ------------**********
07/17/2009 +000,062,427,388.38 ------------*******
07/20/2009 +000,171,809,229.69 ------------******** Mon
07/21/2009 -000,321,987,025.18 ---
07/22/2009 +000,261,059,305.61 ------------********
07/23/2009 +010,040,233,982.08 ------------**********
07/24/2009 -000,124,358,216.07 ---
07/27/2009 +000,077,777,899.40 ------------******* Mon
07/28/2009 +000,420,333,618.55 ------------********
07/29/2009 +000,733,026,310.02 ------------********
07/30/2009 -026,031,384,097.19 -
07/31/2009 +095,534,108,940.65 ------------**********

154,924,864,492.73 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $2,004,619,546,245.58 in last 316 days.
That's 2,005B$ in 316 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 197% of that highest year ever only in 316 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 316 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3997660&mesg_id=3997819

[bain_sidhe]

15. Being the night owl and late-riser that I am

First time EVAH that I've gotten to rec this thread before it hits double digits! But I confess, I thought my eyes *were* deceiving me at first.

[Karenina]

16. bttt!

[Hugin]

18. Futures up @ ~ 05:46 ET...

DJIA 9,206.00 80.00
S&P 500 994.40 10.00
NASDAQ 100 1,622.00 20.00

[Hugin]

19. Oil jumps above $70 on optimism demand to recover (AP)

By ALEX KENNEDY (AP) – 1 hour ago

SINGAPORE — Oil prices leapt above $70 a barrel Monday in Asia on investor expectations a recovering global economy will boost crude demand.

Benchmark crude for September delivery was up $1.12 to $70.57 a barrel by late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Friday, the contract rose $2.51 to settle at $69.45.

Oil prices seesawed last week before surging Thursday and Friday as investors bet that crude demand, which has been tepid this summer, will eventually pick up as the economy improves.

"Optimism for economic recovery is fighting the weak fundamentals, and right now the optimism is holding the upper hand," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore.

Crude also has followed gains in global stocks. Most Asian indexes rose Monday.

Prices may test an eight-month high of $73.23 a barrel in the coming days, but dismal consumer sentiment in the U.S. will likely weigh on demand and send prices back into the $60s, Shum said.

"It will be difficult for oil prices to sustain in the $70s given the weak fundamentals," he said.

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Way to kill any recovery with "optimism", oil guys and big investment banks! :eyes:

[TheWatcher]

20. The Economic News is Fabricated, the Economy Itself is Fabricated

And the Market is Fake, Manipulated, and dangerously unstable.

This is all going to end at some point.

But for now, the Criminal Mafia is firmly in control.

All we can do is watch, and watch The Sheep Population follow it all off a cliff.

Books are going to be written about this time in history.

For now, we are but Observers, and Witnesses to that History.

Hopefully we will be survivors.

Maybe a couple of us will be the authors of those Books. :)

Good Luck to everyone.

We are going to need it.

[hamerfan]

21. Thank you, Watcher!

You have given voice to my innermost thoughts on this financial debacle we face soon. Too many games, too many people looking for short-term profits for themselves, zero hard economic good news, and NO JOBS!
As always, best of luck to all of us.....
hamerfan

[Warpy]

35. I find myself equally pessimistic

because the systemic problems in this economy have still not been addressed.

There is nothing supporting this economy but debt, hot air, and wishful thinking. Some of the debt has defaulted, but most of it is still out there and bleeding money away from the consumer economy, 2/3 of the economy as a whole.

I don't see everything being sunny in the garden until everything is re regulated and obscene wealth taxed away from the robber class.

[Demeter]

44. I think about how Copernicus Revolutionized Religion

by pulling the props out from under The Ptolemaic system which theorized about the universe revolving about the earth, and bent itself out of shape trying to prove it. The Catholic Church hasn't been the same since.

Now we have to pull the props out from under: Unregulated Capitalism, Greed is Good, Elections For Sale, Might Makes Right, Not Invented Here, Not With MY Money, You Don't, and a host of other economic fallacies, and let the chips fall where they may.



http://www.newworldencyclopedia.org/entry/Nicolaus_Copernicus

Nicolaus Copernicus

Nicolaus Copernicus (February 19, 1473 – May 24, 1543) was one of the great polymaths of his age. He was a mathematician, astronomer, jurist, physician, classical scholar, governor, administrator, diplomat, economist, and soldier. Amid his extensive accomplishments, he treated astronomy as an avocation. But it is for his work in astronomy and cosmology that he has been remembered and accorded a place as one of the most important scientific figures in human history. He provided the first modern formulation of a heliocentric (Sun-centered) theory of the solar system in his epochal book, De revolutionibus orbium coelestium (On the Revolutions of the Heavenly Spheres). That change, often known as the Copernican revolution, had important and far-reaching implications for not only science and cosmology but also theology, philosophy, and culture, and for the relationship between religion and science. Copernicus' concept marked a scientific revolution. Some equate it with the initiation of "the scientific revolution."<1>


And may I point out, for the record, he was 100% Polish, just like yours truly? So, they quibble and say he was a German born in Poland...with no defensible borders, Poland was the crossroads for the genetic pool...

"Copernicus worked for years with the Prussian Diet on monetary reform and published some studies about the value of money. As governor of Warmia, he administered taxes and dealt out justice. It was at this time (beginning in 1519, the year of Thomas Gresham's birth) that Copernicus came up with one of the earliest iterations of the theory now known as Gresham's Law. During these years, he also traveled extensively on government business and as a diplomat on behalf of the prince-bishop of Warmia."

"The Copernican system can be summarized in seven propositions, as Copernicus himself collected them in a Compendium of De revolutionibus that was found and published in 1878. These propositions are:

1. There is no one center in the universe.
2. The Earth's center is not the center of the universe.
3. The center of the universe is near the Sun.
4. The distance from the Earth to the Sun is imperceptible compared with the distance to the stars.
5. The rotation of the Earth accounts for the apparent daily rotation of the stars.
6. The apparent annual cycle of movements of the Sun is caused by the Earth revolving around the Sun.
7. The apparent retrograde motion of the planets is caused by the motion of the Earth, from which one observes."

"Besides its importance to science, astronomy, and cosmology, the Copernican revolution also had profound implications for religion, theology, and philosophy. Jose Wudka (1998) describes this as: "It is hard to estimate the importance of this work: it challenged the age-long views of the way the universe worked and the preponderance of the Earth and, by extension, of human beings. ... All the reassurances of the cosmology of the Middle Ages were gone, and a new view of the world, less secure and comfortable, came into being. Despite these 'problems' and the many critics the model attracted, the system was soon accepted by the best minds of the time such as Galileo."<3>"

So, all we have to do is prove that the earth does not revolve about Goldman Sachs!

[KoKo]

38. "GDP Worse, Not Better,Than Expected" (Bill King via Barry Ritholtz)

Bill King notes in the Think Tank that GDP was actually worse than consensus expected.

How is a minus 1% worse than a minus 1.5% ? He looks at the first half of 2009, and blames the Q1 revisions:

“We will again utilize basic math to illustrate the scam. If Q4 08 GDP was 100 units, and Q1 09 was reported at -5.5% and Q2 09 GDP was expected to be -1.5%, the expectation was for GDP of 100 units minus 5.5% or 94.5 units, minus 1.5% or 93.08 units.

With the revision of Q1 09 GDP to -6.4% the Q1 GDP units become 100 minus 6.4% or 93.6 units. So Q2 is minus 1% or 92.664. Ergo aggregate GDP was worse than expected!”

The 0.5% GDP beat comes on top of a 0.9% downward revision. Hence, the net surprise was a compounded negative 0.4%.

And that’s before the likely downward revisions to Q2 . . .

-snip-

Once again beancounters ‘fooled’ with inflation to produce higher GDP than warranted.

John Williams: The relatively narrower quarterly contraction in the second quarter reflected the impact of greater weakness being thrown back into the first quarter, in revision, and the use of artificially reduced inflation. The implicit price deflator for the second quarter was 0.2% versus a revised 1.9% (was 2.8%) in the first quarter.

Last week we complained that despite records in fiscal stimulus, Fed largesse, nationalization and rigging of markets the best that can be said is the pace of economic decline is slowing.

Despite a 10.9% surge in federal government spending and virtually no inflation adjustment all that beancounters could fabricate (June data is still incomplete) is a 1% ‘official’ decline in GDP.

David Rosenberg echoes our observation: Imagine, government transfers to the household sector exploded at a 33% annual rate, while tax payments imploded at a 33% annual rate and the best we can do is a -1.2% annualized decline in consumer spending in real terms and flat in nominal terms?…In the absence of the fiscal largesse, it is quite conceivable that consumer spending would have shrunk at a 10% annual rate last quarter!”

And, it is not just labour income that is still in deflation mode. Practically all forms of income are deflating from a year ago — interest income is down 4.5%, dividend income is down 23.0% and proprietary income is down 8.0%. The only income that is really going up is the income from Uncle Sam, which is up more than 10.0% and we have reached a point where a record of nearly one-fifth of personal income is being accounted for by paychecks out of Washington…

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/king-report-gdp-follies/

[Roland99]

24. Strong bank earnings in London fueling buying frenzy here this morning

more money staying at the top.

[nc4bo]

33. Crickey! The stockmarket is breaking records!?11eleven1!

Nc4bo's husband has only worked 3 contracts since January. It is now August and winter's coming fast. None of those contracts were enough to carry us for more than 2-3 weeks.

But the stock market is having orgasms.

Folks keep telling us that the odor we're smelling isn't really crap but damned if it smells like crap. If it smells like crap than it MUST BE crap.

:wtf:

[DemReadingDU]

23. #17

That's my highest rec ever. Good morning to all!

and Thanks to Demeter for starting the thread during Ozy's absence!

[UpInArms]

25. dollar watch (it's dumpster dive time!)

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 78.055 Change -0.094 (-0.12%)

FX Technical Weekly

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio2/FX_Technical_Weekly_1249073615960.html

A US dollar breakdown is underway. The buck has traded at 2009 lows against the AUD, NZD, and CAD in recent days and the EUR, GBP, and CHF should follow suit. The next EURUSD bull leg will likely see a test of the December 2008 high of 1.4720.



Classical Outlook: Price action remains extremely choppy with the market whipsawing between 1.4000 and 1.4340 in recent trade. However, at this point it appears as though bulls are winning out, with any pullbacks easily met by intense buying. A closer look at the weekly suggests that we are on the verge of another major upside break following consolidation since May, which if broken, would project gains towards 1.5000. Look for a break above 1.4340 and close above the 100-Week SMA to confirm.

...more...

US Dollar Reversal and Breakout a Matter of Time - But When?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/eur_fundamentals/US_Dollar_Reversal_and_Breakout_1249076151484.html

The US Dollar finished the week lower against foreign counterparts, but it failed to break below key range-lows despite sharp S&P rallies and fairly disappointing domestic economic developments. The highly-anticipated US Gross Domestic Product showed that the economy contracted less than expected in the second quarter of the year, but noteworthy downward revisions to earlier figures clearly dampened optimism on growth. Government data showed that the economy saw its worst quarter-on-quarter performance in 27 years in Q1. The slower rate of contraction in Q2 may have calmed some nerves, but truly dismal Personal Consumption figures underlined that consumers—the engine of earlier economic growth—remains heavily subdued. The upcoming week brings infamous Non Farm Payrolls data to the fore, and it will be critical to watch for any signs that the US Dollar could finally break its range versus major forex counterparts.

Week in and week out we have discussed potential scenarios for a US Dollar breakout, but FX markets have shown little willingness to push the USD beyond its trading channel through directionless summer trade. Of course, forex market volatility tends to be mean-reverting over the medium-to-long run. Lengthy periods of consolidation most often lead to sharp breakouts, but the timing of said shift remains anything but clear. Forex options markets volatility expectations are near their lowest levels since August, 2008. Anecdotal evidence tells us that trading volumes have fallen sharply through the summer—theoretically making it easier for a big traders to force volatility. Yet few have shown the appetite for moving markets, and we anxiously await signs that the US dollar may finally break out of its consolidative range.

Can the US Non Farm Payrolls report and other key data releases finally break us from our recent range? We will certainly know the answer to this question once the coming week is through, but it is worthwhile to discuss possible scenarios in which the US Dollar could finally move sustainably higher or lower against the Euro and other key counterparts. Consensus forecasts imply that markets expect broad improvements in key NFP and similarly market-moving ISM Manufacturing and Services results. Given the general uptrend in equity markets and general economic mood, such predictions come of little surprise. Yet lofty expectations leave significant room for disappointment, and the very fact that the S&P 500 has rallied so substantially through recent weeks leaves it at risk for a noteworthy correction.

Forex futures and options data shows that traders remain extremely net-short the US Dollar, and our bias remains bullish as a result. The key difficulty remains the timing of any such correction, as market sentiment can remain at extremes for extended stretches. In other words, we know it’s all a matter of time. Given enough of it, we may expect the Greenback to finally break above the Euro 1.4350 mark or below 1.3800. Given enough time, traders will unwind extremely one-sided US Dollar short positions and bring a noteworthy correction. Whether that may be in the week ahead is anyone’s guess, however, and it will be critical to watch for signs of a sustained reversal. Said signal could come from the S&P 500 and other key financial market risk barometers.



...more...

(edited 'cause I needed to?)

[UpInArms]

26. Markit Group under U.S. DoJ scrutiny

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSBNG25747620090803

Aug 3 (Reuters) - Market data provider Markit Group Ltd is being probed by the U.S. Justice Department for possible anticompetitive practices, Bloomberg news agency said, citing people familiar with the matter.

The Justice Department is scrutinising Markit's practices ranging from restricting which trades can be cleared and requiring clients to buy bundled services, the agency said.

Markit, in exchange for granting use of its benchmark indexes, told a swaps clearing house customer to purchase a pricing service, the report said, citing a person with knowledge of the transaction.

The Justice Department could not be immediately reached for comment by Reuters, outside of regular U.S. business hours.

...more...

[UpInArms]

28. Survey shows Goldman's reputation damaged: report

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE57201P20090803?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investment bank Goldman Sachs' (GS.N) reputation among both the general public and financially sophisticated Americans has been damaged by the events of the past year, the Financial Times reported on Sunday, citing research conducted for the paper.

The paper said a survey of 17,000 Americans by Brand Asset Consulting found that Goldman's stature had suffered in 2008 and 2009.

While long-time rival Morgan Stanley (MS.N) also suffered a decline in stature in the survey, respondents liked and respected Morgan Stanley more than Goldman, the paper said.

The biggest U.S. investment bank has faced a torrent of unwanted publicity including an unflattering spread in Rolling Stone magazine, which accused the bank of having a key role in various market bubbles stretching back to the 1920s.

...a bit more...

[UpInArms]

29. Phibro (Shitibank trading arm) in talks to part with Citigroup: report ($100 million/yr CEO)

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE5711S520090802?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Andrew Hall, the trader behind Phibro LLC, the energy trading arm of beleaguered bank Citigroup, is quietly pushing for a "quiet divorce" from his parent company and has had preliminary talks with one possible suitor, The New York Times reported on Sunday.

Citigroup said in a statement, "We are evaluating the best way forward for our stakeholders." A company spokeswoman declined to comment specifically on the talks referred to in the Times' story.

Phibro has been in the spotlight after the White House criticized a reported $100 million pay plan for Hall as "out of whack."

Citigroup said in its statement that the Phibro unit operates under a pay-for-performance contract, with compensation determined at the end of the year as a percentage of the profits the business earns for Citi.

"We're confident in the value these types of profit-sharing arrangements bring to the company and its shareholders as they directly align compensation with performance and include appropriate clawback and risk-sharing provisions," Citigroup said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

30. China reliance a risk for commodities: Roubini

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE5720MG20090803?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

KALGOORLIE, Australia (Reuters) - China may have overstocked on commodities, risking a slowdown in buying and a correction in prices in the second half of this year, top economist Nouriel Roubini said on Monday, also reiterating that the global recession would continue until year-end.

Roubini, a New York University professor and one of the few economists who predicted the magnitude of the financial crisis, said he expected most commodity prices to continue a gradual recovery in step with rising general economic growth.

"The recession will continue to the end of the year," Roubini said at the Diggers and Dealers mining conference in Western Australia. But he added: "As the global economy moves toward growth as opposed to a recession, you are going to see further increases in commodity prices, especially next year."

Still, he warned there was still a risk of a second slump.

"In the short term there has been a massive stockpiling of commodities by China," he said. "My concern is that China might have accumulated an inventory of commodities that is probably excessive to the growth of their own economy."

China went on a buying spree after the global collapse in demand for oil, metals and other industrial staples, bulking up its domestic government inventories and snatching up overseas assets from Australia to Africa to Canada to safeguard growth.

...more...

[Demeter]

37. The Year Will End Before the "Recession" Does

and perhaps another 2 or 3 or 12 more years will pass before all the crooks have been removed from power.

[truedelphi]

63. You are more hopeful than I about crooks being

Removed.

We now see the wholesale conversion of people who voted for the person who saw to it that the Geithner Bernanke crooks were installed, and these voters are not wanting to question anything beneath the surface.

And now they are satisfied with the pleasant memes thrown their way - just as people who voted for Bush still believe that the war in Iraq helped the women and the children there.

So too will most who voted for Obama believe in these fake economic rallies, and the miserable sack of poop health care legislation won't be seen forwhat it really is: a mandate to buy a defective product from the criminal class.

[UpInArms]

31. WUHBPH -Housing could take another turn downward: Greenspan

WUHBPH (Washed Up Has Been Partisan Hack)

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE5710W420090802?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Sunday that signs of stabilization and increased confidence in the economy could be dashed if home prices were to take another turn downward.

Greenspan told ABC's "This Week With George Stephanopoulos" that he didn't believe that a steep drop was in store, but home prices had stabilized only temporarily.

"It is possible that could get a second wave down," Greenspan said. "Under those conditions, we would get a very significant change in the underlying confidence in the consumer area," as foreclosures rise and more home values fall below their mortgage levels.

[DemReadingDU]

32. Greenspan: government will impose value-added tax to raise revenue

8/2/09 Geithner: Economy healing, but deficit must go down

Geithner refused to rule out future tax increases, saying President Barack Obama's administration would take whatever steps were necessary to reduce the deficit once the economy recovers. Greenspan said he believed the government eventually will impose some kind of value-added tax to raise revenue. A value-added tax is assessed on the transfer of goods and services from production to delivery, with consumers ultimately paying higher prices. It differs from a sales tax, which is directly assessed on consumers when they buy something. Greenspan called a value-added tax "the least worst solution," saying it "the only thing that raises revenue in significant quantities without significantly impacting the economy."

more...
http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/08/02/geithner.economy/


More people jobless, less taxes for the government, so now they want to raise taxes!!! How can taxes be raised for people having no income, no job, no savings? They can't buy anything anyway, and most probably won't have credit cards either.

[clixtox]

34. Pure genius! I am in awe. How do they do it? Tax the consumers more...

tax the distributers and the manufacturers again and that's the "least worst solution"!

Amazing!

That is absolutely insane.

The sheeple are bound to start wising up when they stop living like Americans and start living more like third world peons and peasants.

TAX THE SUPER RICH AND THE UBER RICH until it hurts.

A confiscatory inheritance tax for all very large estates.

Tax corporations on gross and net receipts and their real estate vigorously, "marked to market".

Tax extractive mining, timber, coal and other such industries on their gross and net receipts.

Etc, etc.

Expecting the bamboozled victims of the system to fund their own repression is beyond hubris, but the sheeple are so clueless now.

Screwing working folks is becoming more difficult as their numbers plunge.

Something has to give... And give!

[Warpy]

36. That's all Greenscam ever thinks: clobber the working class

The man had an absolute hissy fit every time the minimum wage was inched up, even though it's lagged far behind inflation since the 70s. It's why Congress allowed the minimum wage to stagnate for nearly a decade.

Greenspan would do well to put "Atlas Shrugged" down and read some history, which is full of starving peasants sick of being starved and letting his class know about it violently.

[Demeter]

46. Go All Religious On the Obscenely Greedy

Tell them: (King James Bible)

But he that knew not, and did commit things worthy of stripes, shall be beaten with few stripes. For unto whomsoever much is given, of him shall be much required: and to whom men have committed much, of him they will ask the more.


In short, Pay Up, Dudes!

[amandabeech]

39. Getting out of Iraq and Afghanistan, and closing some of our myriad ot

military bases around the world would help considerably. Why not consider that?

[Dr.Phool]

42. Hey! Stop trying to inject sanity into the debate!

To quote the Marx Brothers, "Everybody knows there ain't no Sanity Clause".

[amandabeech]

43. LOL!!!!

Maybe Obama should add a new cabinet department: The Department of Sanity.

Would that help?

[Demeter]

47. That Sounds More Like the 3 Stooges, But You Are Correct!

... from a scene in the Marx Brothers' 1935 movie A Night at the Opera.


Groucho Marx is attempting to explain the intricacies of a business contract to Chico Marx. When Groucho mentions the Sanity Clause, Chico responds, "You can't fool me, there ain't no sanity clause."

[amandabeech]

61. LOL! n/t

[AnneD]

48. I have wondered many a time......

what will happen when Johnny comes marching home-to this economy. All these unemployed, some unstable, all knowing how to use weapons. The mind boggles. Revolutions have started like this.

Maybe they want the troops exactly where they are.

[Demeter]

49. Will they Have that Luxury?

It's not like the troops are living off the host countries like parasites. they are government employees, bought and paid very poorly, too.

[amandabeech]

62. An interesting thought.

Love your avatar. She was a great lady.

[truedelphi]

64. I am starting to want the troops where they are.

Talking to the vets I know who have returned, they have a blind mindset that they were in Iraq or Afghanistan "helping women and children." And when they come home, they end up on our police forces, where they torment people in the manner that we witnessed with Gates last week.

Their whole last three or four years has been about responding to authoritative orders and clamping down on any one who protests. If things in our "jobless" recovery society get any worse, and the middle incomed and lower classes finally take to the streets, I would far rather have the troops else where than here.

[spotbird]

41. A regressive tax that impacts

those who can least afford it.

What happened to raising taxes on people making over $250k? Can we at least start there? This low income tax increase is still class warfare, btw.

[Dr.Phool]

50. Tax receipts are on pace to drop 18 percent this year

Tax receipts are on pace to drop 18 percent this year
by Associated Press
Monday August 03, 2009, 1:27 PM

WASHINGTON -- The recession is starving the government of tax revenue, just as the president and Congress are piling a major expansion of health care and other programs on the nation's plate and struggling to find money to pay the tab.

The numbers could hardly be more stark: Tax receipts are on pace to drop 18 percent this year, the biggest single-year decline since the Great Depression, while the federal deficit balloons to a record $1.8 trillion.

Other figures in an Associated Press analysis underscore the recession's impact: Individual income tax receipts are down 22 percent from a year ago. Corporate income taxes are down 57 percent. Social Security tax receipts could drop for only the second time since 1940, and Medicare taxes are on pace to drop for only the third time ever.

The last time the government's revenues were this bleak, the year was 1932 in the midst of the Depression.

"Our tax system is already inadequate to support the promises our government has made," said Eugene Steuerle, a former Treasury Department official in the Reagan administration who is now vice president of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation.

"This just adds to the problem."

While much of Washington is focused on how to pay for new programs such as overhauling health care -- at a cost of $1 trillion over the next decade -- existing programs are feeling the pinch, too.

Social Security is in danger of running out of money earlier than the government projected just a few month ago. Highway, mass transit and airport projects are at risk because fuel and industry taxes are declining.

The national debt already exceeds $11 trillion. And bills just completed by the House would boost domestic agencies' spending by 11 percent in 2010 and military spending by 4 percent.

For this report, the AP analyzed annual tax receipts dating back to the inception of the federal income tax in 1913. Tax receipts for the 2009 budget year were available through June. They were compared to the same period last year. The budget year runs from October to September, meaning there will be three more months of receipts this year.

(More)

http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2009/08/tax_receipts_are_on_pace_to_dr.html

[hamerfan]

51. Dow up 115 points today

On make-believe news!
Why do I feel it's just gonna be that much worse when the truth finally comes out about Wall Street?
Call me Eeyore if you like, but this is not good....
hamerfan

[truedelphi]

53. Thing is, with us plopping some ten trillion bucks into the

Economy, this rally might go on for six months to three years.

Sort of like when the millionaire parents bail out the coke-addled twenty soemthing. That guy feels good paying his bills and keeping the repo man at bay.

But until he really cleans up his act, it is just a pipe dream. With coke in the pipe.

[Demeter]

55. There's No Way The Present Situation Can Hold for 3 Years

What cannot continue, will not continue. And nothing that is producing current "happy" signs is 1) real 2) continuing.

I feel like a philosopher, sometimes, rying to count angels dancing on the head of a pin.

Only there are no angels. And no pin, either.

[hamerfan]

56. Granted, TPTB

will try to prop up the market's "good news" for as long as they can. This will benefit the top investors/wealthy participants, but once "the emperor has no clothes" moment arrives to the average investor, we are toast!
As always, the best of luck to us all....
hamerfan

[TheWatcher]

57. They've done it before. Quite Recently.

They managed to manipulate the Market to all-time highs during the last Bubble, which was March 03-September 08.

I really don't see how they could pull of something similar again though, given the current environment. What are they going to do it WITH? Where is the money, real or imagined, going to come FROM?

What the Dumb-Ass Public should do, instead of drooling, gurgling, and cheering on what obviously is not real but makes them feel good and THINK there is a Recovery, is Asking HOW this could be possible given everything that is occurring in the real Economy DESPITE the Magical Runup in the Stock market.

They should be asking themselves and marching in the streets demanding to know how this could even be POSSIBLE.

but since they love being conned, love being lied to, and love being SLAVES to a lie, they play along with the lie and pretend they are part of the Power Structure. Like they've won some sort of victory and they actually benefit from any of this.

When in actuality they are under the Boot Heels of it.

I don't know what's worse. the people perpetuating and controlling this nonsense, or they Sheep who insist that we all have to go along with it.

This Country is an Asylum.

[truedelphi]

58. Did you find it a bit troubling that

"the President" went on vacation, and rather than this being a time for him to take a week or two off, Geithner goes in in Obama's place to talk to Gregory. (On the SUdnay talk show circuit.)

Who is the real President? Obama or Timmy the Elf, who one day says he would renounce having a world currency, while talking to Congress. Then on the very next day he says, when talking to the Foreign Relations Council, that it might be the way to go.

[TheWatcher]

59. It begs the question doesn't it?

A tidbit that most people dare not let themselves think about is this:

Which Presidential Candidate, out of ALL the Presidential Candidates we have ever had, got the MOST in Campaign Contributions from Wall Street and the Banking Sector?

Why Barack Obama, of course.

I'm sure they were just feeling overly generous, and there is nothing to see there.

Geithner and Bernanke are both Criminals, and belong in prison with Stammerin Hank and Greenspan.

This particular Cabal seems to say one thing, do another, and then say another thing about what they would like to do, when they previously said that they would never do that.

Also, I get very nervous when the President, no matter who he is, goes on "vacation" in August.

I'll just leave it at that.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

54. Buy! Buy! Buy!