Venezuela would stop oil to U.S. if invaded -Chavez

[Robbien]

By Pascal Fletcher

CARACAS, Venezuela(Reuters) - Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez warned the U.S. government Sunday that if it tried to invade Venezuela or impose a trade blockade against his country, he would shut off Venezuelan oil supplies to the United States.

Although the context Chavez gave was hypothetical, it was the first time the outspoken Venezuelan leader had publicly mentioned the possibility of cutting off oil supplies to the United States. Venezuela is among the four top suppliers of crude and oil products to the U.S. market.

"Mr. Bush must know that if he gets the mad idea of trying to blockade Venezuela, or, even worse, of invading Venezuela, if that happened, the people of the United States should know that not a drop of oil would reach them from Venezuela, not a drop more," Chavez told tens of thousands of cheering supporters

<snip>

Chavez said that if the U.S. government tried to confiscate Venezuelan oil refineries in the United States, run by the Citgo affiliate of the state oil firm Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), he could do the same to U.S. oil operations in his country. "There are plenty of American installations here," he said. Chavez said U.S. oil magnates were manipulating Bush "like a puppet" and added the United States wanted to "get its hands on PDVSA."

http://www.forbes.com/business/newswire/2004/02/29/rtr1...

comment: Appears that Chavez is sending a warning shot over the bow after Bush&Co toppled Haiti. Chavez is not cowed. Ha!

[fearnobush]

1. Chavez has had enough of the BFEE.

In his speech, Chavez also called Bush an "asshole" for, he said, supporting a short-lived coup in 2002 that briefly toppled him.

[never cry wolf]

2. The more I learn of Chavez the more I like him

I just hope he doesn't have a death wish, the guys he's bucking play for keeps.

[Robbien]

4. I believe he has already passed the "trial by fire"

and he has got the advantage since he is sitting on top of a whole lot of oil.

hi steve,
looking forward to this weekend's DU gettogether. It will be good to get away from the RWingers here.

[deadliving]

8. Chavez is a God!

We need him here in the US to help us like he is helping his people at home!

[SangamonTaylor]

32. you all need to do some reading up on Chavez

he's a brutal dictator who took over the country once in a coup with his paramilitary forces.

However, that said, *'s policy toward Chavez has been nil....much like John Edwards said, * tends to ignore situations in our own hemisphere (and around the world) until they reach the critical point.

[Dirk39]

39. I did read everything...

he was supported by the Sovietunion, did sell injections to criminals in the USA, to inject innocent american christians with the posion of communism. He did burn down schools, raped catholic women, allowed millions of gays to marry, burned the american flag, electrified Jimi Hendrix guitar...

He's evil, and he doesn't allow a free market society that makes everybody happy. He's worse than Saddam, Stalin and Hitler.

Any "reading up" I've missed?
We're not allowed to read books here in Germany, help me with some valued information! Are there any underground news sources in Germany, spreading the truth like the oppressed democratic liberal free Fox-News?
Help me, I'm desperate!
He did steal my SUV, and none of the communist media did report this!
Help me get back my SUV and my freedom!

And they're still telling these lies about me and my fair sisters, descending from monkeys once. I'm so tired of this communist propaganda. Why do they hate us for our freedom?

Fair and balanced in Germany,
Dirk

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

40. Indeed.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

41. What the hell are you talking about?

I would love to read what you claim to have read. First of all he attempted a bloodless coup once while he was in the armed forces. There were no "paramilitaries". I think you're confusing Venezuela w/ Colombia. If I saw such a rich country turned into shit by a bunch of elitist racist bastards that ruled for a whole century and kept 80% of the people in poverty. Second of all if he were such a "brutal dictator all his opponents and their financiers would be dead or in jail. Do you have any documentation of any of this. I suggest you do some reading into how he has made health care available to rural and poor urban areas, loans for small businesses, farming land, community policing, after school programs, over a million children illiterate children getting education, etc, etc. People in Latin America are tired of being pawns in the USA's imperialist games. I can only hope we get 100 Hugo Chavez's And Lula Da Silvas. It is amazing to me how so many so called progressives in this site recycle all this disinformation just because CNN or Telemundo told them. I suggest you do a lot more reading before suggesting it to anyone.

[alittlelark]

3. I believe we get a good % of our oil from Venezuela

This is scary - and incredibly brave. This JUNTA has no morals. And I don't know if the logical majority here in the US can stop him - at least not for the next 9 months.

Chavez is the new Che

[hang a left]

14. This guy, and I love him, has just painted a bullseye right on

his forehead. I hope Hugo has trusted people around him at all times.

[saigon68]

28. Unfortunately he will be next to go

Mark my words

[SangamonTaylor]

33. he deserves to go

I'm surprised at how so many are supporting Chavez.

Does anyone remember the oil strike in early 2003 and how Chavez 'handled' it?

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

35. He deserves to go? Sez who?

Tell us how did he handle that US backed "strike". The people that orchestrated this bullshit were comfortably hiding in Miami while their actions were destroying the economy. At least according my Venezuelan friend who was there at the time. When the people decide he has to go they can vote him out. It's not for a bunch of corrupt gringos (who hold fake elections right here in the USA) to decide. For 80 these people have had one screwed up "leader" after another. Now finally someone gives a damn about the poor and we're supposed to believe all this neo-liberal propaganda, PLEASE.

[alittlelark]

37. Uhhh, Yeah

Go back from whence you came.

[homelandpunk]

43. haha..... I'm laughing out loud. He handled the BFEE

in 2003....that is what i remember.
What do you remember?

[kalian]

5. Go Chavez!

[deadliving]

6. You go Hugo!!!!

Please help raise the cost of oil to the US tenfold!

We need and deserve to pay more so the rich and greedy will drive less. Please help support Chavez and his goals!!!!

[truhavoc]

9. I appreciate you trying to make a point

But I live in Ohio, and am a regional manager for Lowes. I have to travel between six states and have to use my own car with $300/per reimbursement. If gas was increased "tenfold" it would cripple the economy even worse, and I would be barely able to perform my duties economically. Take your hatred for SUV drivers out elsewhere, I drive a toyota hyrid for christ's sake!

[pinniped]

12. Look at it on the bright side. chimpy AWOL will suffer more in the polls.

n/t

[truhavoc]

25. I want * out of office as much as anyone

Ideals such as this are exactly the root of stereotypes the right casts on democrats. That we don't care what happens, what is bad for america is good for democrats is what they say. I've suffered my fair share during this economic downturn, but if it came down to it I would rather see another four years of Bush than a completely crippled job market and America being even worse off.

[Voltaire99]

16. I agree with truhavoc

Everyone except "the rich and greedy" will suffer if gas prices increase tenfold.

[anarchy1999]

18. No Pain = No Gain.

Only when consumers here start to feel real pain will they start to become active and to want change. I'm sorry you only get $300. Won't they give you an increase to offset higher prices?

Sorry, I'm not sorry at all. Go to your superiors, take action.

[truhavoc]

26. You overestimate the public

You have this vision of the people rising up in revolt, but if gas prices say doubled, Bush would play it off as a cost of fighting terrorism and people would take it. I don't know if you remember directly after 9/11 but that night people around here were at gas stations paying around $3-$4 per gallon for gas.

Also this is the same sort of ideals that the right employs with taxes, especially local issues. They misuse our money, so vote the levy down and they will be forced to change. No they will make cuts that make the situation even worse.

[SammyWinstonJack]

27. Careful what you wish for

"The rich and greedy will drive less." I highly doubt that. Mostly likely those who can least afford a tenfold increase will be the ones who drive less.

[FloridaPat]

7. I talked to some people that lived in Venezuela last December.

They said there was a lot of talk about Al Quada being in Venezuela, but I couldn't get the answer as to who is saying it. Don't forget, Bush still has blanket authority to invade any country that harbors al Quada.

[einniv]

11. Where did he get that blanket authority?

I don't remember him getting any blanket authority.

[Tinoire]

15. LMAO! Rumsfeld about 6 months ago had declared there was

Al-Queda in Haiti. Will have to find those links!

Oh their warped sense of humor knows NO limits!

[Valkyrie55]

10. How bout that?

WOW!!! Someone with the courage to stand up to Bush. I'd say John Kerry could learn something from this guy.

[Voltaire99]

17. Good point.

Alas, I fear that a Kerry White House would be as likely to invade Venezuela as Bush. One of Kerry's national security advisers is the noxious Rand Beers, whose resumé includes Drug War aerial fumigation of Columbia and a court deposition declaring links between Al Qaeda and FARC. Another adviser is the corporate oil slickster Richard Morningstar.

For more on this pair, see:
http://www.counterpunch.com/cockburn02202004.html

[pescao]

29. also he was on the iran-contra congressional hearings i think

http://www.johnkerry.com/pressroom/speeches/spc_2003_12...

...

We need a President who can take us back to America’s rightful path in the world because President Bush has taken us so far off course.  Whether it is failing to support a new Afghanistan or supporting a failed coup in Venezuela, whether it is pushing the world away on the Kyoto treaty or pushing the world into danger over North Korea, this Administration’s go-it-alone attitude has endangered our interests and enraged those who should be our friends.

...

[pinniped]

13. President Chavez also said chimpy wasn't even the "real" president...

Which we all know to be the case.

[ctex]

19. This is pretty much an empty threat by Chavez

Oil exports are a very high percentage of Venezuela's national income -- its economy would eventually collapse without oil exports. So it is safe to assume that Venezuela will continue to export oil which means that the world-wide supply/demand balance will be largely unaffected. The new buyer's of Venezuelan crude wil be be buying less of other countries crude which will then be available for purchase by US refiners.

A second point: much of Venezuela's crude is of fairly low quality and is of low value to many refiners. It is worth the most to refiners operating complex refineries with a lot of upgrading capacity. Most large US refineries are of this type (especially those owned by CITGO which is why PDVSA bought CITGO), but many European and most third-world refineries are not. This means that Venezuela would have to heavily discount (say $2-3/barrel) its oil to make it worthwhile for the typical European or Latin American refiner to use the crude now going to the US.

Of couse US refiners would also suffer because of higher shipping costs and perhaps also from paying a quality premium for the replacement crude. Even if the dollar hits suffered by the US and Venezuela are comparable the percentage impact on the Venezuelan economy will be several orders of magnitude greater.

[tedzbear]

22. Maybe so, but...

Even if he turned off the tap for only one week our economy would grind to a halt before his would.

And contrary to your post, the United States isn't the only regular Venezuela customer. They will still be able to sell enough elsewhere to get by for some time. Meanwhile the USA's gas will rise to $5 a gallon and our economy will implode.

Don't kid yourself. Our oil companies are plenty nervous about Chavez's rebellious attitude. I see a coup in the cards.

[ctex]

44. The tap was off for more than a week last year and the US economy survived

Do the arithmetic. Assuming the market price of oil is some reflection of its value, one can easily calculate what Venezuela loses on a percentage basis versus what the US would lose. It no contest -- Venezuela craters long before the US.

Venezuela's GDP was $132 billion in 2002 or 1/80 of the US GDP of $10.45 trillion. The US takes about one-half of Venezuela's oil exports or about 1.3 million barrels per day. A one month suspension of Venezuelan exports to the US (by throttling back exports) costs them about $1 billion dollars (31 days x 1.3 millon bbls x $25/bbl) or 0.8% of their annual GDP (ignoring multiplier effects). The same $1 billion dollars would be 0.01%, a miniscule portion of the US GDP (the US economy would suffer, not so much from a lack of crude, but from higher prices needed to entice more production from other suppliers).

[Barkley]

23. Which oil companies we can boycott if the U.S. does invade Venezuela?

Or perhaps we can target just one.

[hatrack]

31. China will happily buy any oil Venezuela has in the event of a stoppage

The Chinese economy has already driven the price of cold-rolled sheet steel up to $600 per ton, and their energy demand and usage are exploding. They'd be glad to buy whatever oil Venezuela has.

[slack]

20. It's a Bush-tactic

if you don't know what to do, take a foreign aggressor. 3/4 of the world would be against usa. so it's cheap to take bush as the evil guy. venezuela got many problems. I don't think an invasion from usa is one of them. It's the same game like Al-Kaida.
But I have to say, it's nice to hear somebody like Chavez who talk clear and loud: your president is an asshole!
Ok. stop thinking from europe. *g*

[bushisanidiot]

21. Baby Bush Only Invades Countries That Are Weak and An Easy Win

er.. countries with democratically elected leaders too. He prefers to install dictators that he can prop up to be used for political purposes later (saddam/iraq)

[Barkley]

24. The New World Order: If you're not Afghanistan or Iraq ...

You're next!

[Moderator]

30. Kick!

[Barkley]

34. March Madness in L.A.

March 1 :
EMERGENCY RESPONSE DEMONSTRATION TODAY!
Protest U.S.-Led Coup in Haiti!
No U.S. Occupation of Haiti!
5PM Monday
Westwood Federal Building
Veteran at Wilshire


March 3:
PROTEST BUSH IN LA!
Bush will be in Los Angeles Wednesday to
raise money for his re-election campaign.
5-7PM Shrine Auditorium
Jefferson at Figueroa


March 20:
BRING THE TROOPS HOME NOW
Global Day of Action
First Anniversary of the US Iraq Invasion of Iraq
Assemble 12 Noon at Hollywood and Vine.

[Imajika]

36. Completely empty threat..

"Venezuela would stop oil to U.S. if invaded -Chavez"

If Venezuela were invaded by the US, it would lose it's oil production facilities in the first hours.

The US would seize everything having to do with oil production, refining and exporting in the first phase of any invasion to prevent any damage or intentional sabatage.

My guess is that Chavez is preparing for the National Electoral Council to reject as invalid the signatures gathered for the national referendum which could end his rule. If and when that occurs, which I believe I've read could be as early as next week, it could spark the beginning of a violent civil war in that country.

The opposition to Chavez is claiming that his cronies on the Council are doing everything they can do to prevent the referendum. Last I heard James Carville was helping the opposition unify and oust Chavez by attacking the economy rather than Chavez personally.

If the Council rejects the referendum, Chavez probably assumes the US will claim he manipulated events to thwart the referendum. If that does indeed happen, Chavez may believe the US will intervene in Venezuela directly with military forces - which may be correct.

I think Chavez is on thin ice. I suspect a majority of the people in Venezuela are tired of Chavez and would vote him out. I can only guess that he is a hero to some on DU because he is quasi-marxist Castro apologist.

All Chavez's bluster aside, if the US really invaded they would topple Chavez in hours. What segments of the Venezuelan military remained loyal to Chavez would be crushed rather quickly.

Saying that, even if the US enjoyed temporary support in Venezuela for getting rid of Chavez, it would still cause more damage than it is worth unless Chavez can be proven to have manipulated the referendum process and the world community joins the US - which is unlikely to happen. Unless a real threat to the US is present, America should keep its nose out of other nations affairs as much as possible.

Still though, Chavez is a thug in my opinion, I am glad Carville has assisted the opposition, and I suspect Mr. Chavez will be out of power sooner rather than later, one way or another.

Imajika

edited for spelling

[bvar22]

38. I'm curious.

What would you do if a foreign government was supporting a group inside the US to overthrow our democratically elected government.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

42. James Carville can kiss our collective asses.

Of all the Venezuelans I know only the rich elitist racist ones refer to Mr Chavez this way (the equivalent of Bush's base here). The other ones that come from more modest means and have suffered under previous administrations, appreciate the man and what he has tried to do. You seem to assume that the US can actually commit another crime such as invading just because they feel like it. Out of all this nonsense the only thing I agree with is that the USA should keep its nose out of the rest of America's business. But of course how can they let all that oil under the control of uncivilized people. Try and overthrow Bush with the help of an outside country and you'll probably be sending post card from Guantanamo. When was the last time Venezuela invaded and occupied anyone? I think no one on this rogue nation of hours should be lecturing others about their government unless they are somehow planning to overthrow the terrorist that have been running Washington for years.

Me