New Study: Global Temperatures to Rise 9 Degrees by 2100

[tex-wyo-dem]

Source: Reuters

A new study, which researchers have called "the most exhaustive end-to-end analysis of climate change impacts yet performed", predicts that global warming could be twice as bad as previous estimates had suggested.

Published this month in the Journal of Climate, the MIT-based research found a 90% probability that worldwide surface temperatures will rise at least 9 degrees by 2100.

Pulling from a variety of data sources back in 2007, the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) projected temperature increases anywhere from 2 to 11 degrees by the end of the century. Now due to this new data, it looks like the higher range of that projection may be closer to the truth.

<...>

In other words, as our models become increasingly more accurate compared to previous models, global warming reveals itself as more acute rather than less. And it becomes much more apparent just how large of an impact human-induced factors can have on climate change.

Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/mnCarbonEmissions/idUS148975034620090522

[tomm2thumbs]

1. I wish there was a way to prove to the idiots that this is the case - time will do that

but only after it is too late to backtrack from the results. Oh, that's right, it is God's plan. Well, then perhaps so is terrorism. Duh

[liberal N proud]

2. Good, I am getting tired of these cold winters and springs

:sarcasm:

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:sarcasm:

[kestrel91316]

3. Oh, well, it's been fun while it lasted. At least I'll be dead by mid-century.

[Birthmark]

4. I'm way ahead of you

Hey! Wait! That's not good, is it? :)

[kestrel91316]

12. Granted, mid-century is really optimistic for me, lol.

[Birthmark]

20. I think I'll last a long time if...

...I can figure out how to fail to die. It seems tough, but I enjoy a challenge.

[villager]

5. well, that's it then, isn't it?

For the biosphere as we've known it...human "civilization," etc...

[Birthmark]

7. Yes, that is it. IF...

...we don't do something pretty quickly. Yeah, I know. That seems pretty unlikely. It's not like the Earth will be uninhabital by humans, but it's unlikely that they'll be 6 billion of us left by 2100, imo.

I'm 51 yet I fully expect to see the Great Dying begin in my lifetime.

[edbermac]

6. I'll be 144 years old by then.

They'd better fix it by then, seniors can't handle very hot weather.

[Birthmark]

8. I'll help you out.

I'll only be 143. :)

[slackmaster]

23. And I will turn...

142 that year.

:hi:

[Birthmark]

33. Good. You can help me. :) eom

[Uncle Joe]

9. Hotter than hell, but not as pleasant.

I wonder if their models took a major global methane release in to account?

"The new study was done using 400 applications of a computer model, which included looking at complicated factors such as atmospheric, oceanic and biological systems data, as well as global economic activity. A similar 2003 study had predicted a mere- but still significant- 4 degree increase in global temperatures by 2100, but those models weren't nearly as comprehensive, and they didn't take into consideration economic factors."

Thanks for the thread, tex-wyo-dem.

[Birthmark]

11. As far as I can tell, the answer to your question...

...is "no." http://climateprogress.org/2009/04/29/nature-climate-crunch/

[Javaman]

15. Which means, that the massive methane release will probably happen oh so much sooner.

flash over. poof!!! we are all crispy critters.

we had a good run. did some cool things.

I think we should start sending out cryptic messages into space ala LOST in hopes of attracting alien tv stars to saves us.

[Birthmark]

19. Well, what I'm doing...

...is looking for a small plot of ground to set up a sustainable life-style. Not so much for me since I'll be dead before the real show starts, but for my descendants. I think people with foresight should begin doing that now while it's still relatively cheap and relatively easy.

[Javaman]

21. have you read, "the road"?

granted that was dealing with a nuclear disaster, but given the global warming, it really won't be much different.

[Fearless]

10. Bye bye polar bears.

[glitch]

13. Most species won't be able to adapt fast enough for such a rapid change. nt

[Javaman]

14. What do you mean, bye bye polar bears??

It means bye bye, us.

[Fearless]

22. It means civil unrest in warm climates as water shortages take place.

It means the American Southwest will run out of water. It means that the Amazon rain forest will turn to dust and the Sahara will expand into DRC and points south. The polar ice caps will melt causing large sections of tectonic plates to rise causing the sea level to rise drowning some of the most populous cities on Earth including London, New York, the Californian coast, Singapore, Rome, Lisbon, and potentially Paris. Polar bears and other animals will disappear because they can't adapt quickly enough (for them specifically to the rapid loss of Arctic ice).

But man will endure. We are not that easily disposed of. Look to civil unrest in all temperate and tropical climates. Look for more powerful hurricanes, more damaging floods, and even more snow in places that didn't normally get that much snow because of the increase of moisture in the atmosphere.

Afterward, we can be sure of one thing... the human race will still be here... but the disparity between the rich and the poor will be even greater.

[Lorien]

24. We'll endure the world wars over remaining resources?

maybe a few will, but not many. Living on a completely trashed planet is hardly a life that would be WORTH living.

[Fearless]

32. The human race already lives in its own squalor in a majority of the world, it would only continue.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

37. Bye, bye everyone.

[Javaman]

16. So if a few people survive. what will the earth look like in 200 years?

How much will recover? Will there be enough animals to hunt? will there be farmable land?

[JohnWxy]

17. Based on all the data that has been coming in showing the climate models aren't

forecasting accurately the acceleration of Global warming, I figured that the previous estimates for temps by 2100 would likely be achieved by 2060 - 2070. This is pretty much in line with that guesstimate.

This is why people need to realize we have to start making some appreciable reductions to CO2 emissions in the next 6 to 10 years. This is why HYbrid cars getting a 10% - 20% reduction in 20 years will NOT be enough. By then it will all be over.

Recommended.

[mikelgb]

18. meh I'll only live til 2082 at the most

[Lorien]

25. But we'll see plenty of starvation, drought, storms, and war over resources

well before then, so it's hardly a matter of "meh".

[ColbertWatcher]

26. How long will it be before some GOPer tries to discredit math? n/t

[Rage for Order]

27. Well, they've already proven that their models aren't accurate

Otherwise they would have predicted this in their 2003 models. How do we know this one is accurate given that they now say they missed the mark by more than 100% (they said 4 degrees before, now they say 9 degrees) in their previous model? What other variables did they neglect to include in this climate model?

Tell you what: predict the weather correctly for June 10, 2009 in NY, LA, Paris, Hong Kong, and Moscow. Prove to me that this model can accurately predict the weather on a small scale, with many fewer variables than a 90 year climate window, and I'll be more apt to take this model's predictions at face value.

Of course, this isn't to say that we shouldn't take reasonable measures to reduce pollution and emissions, but I'm not panicking over this report.

[Uncle Joe]

30. Climate or macro scale observation is easier to predict

than micro timed weather, I couldn't and they couldn't tell you what the weather will be June 10, in NY, LA, Paris, Hong Kong and Moscow, maybe rain, sunny, could be overcast or windy.

But I and they could tell you that June 10, 2009 will more likely be warmer than Jan. 10, 2010 in those places, conversely the opposite is true for regions in the Southern Hemisphere.

Speaking of models, in general they advance and become more accurate as additional information becomes known and technology advances, the Wright Brothers could only fly a few hundred yards in their model, within a decade or so men were shooting and bombing from the sky, after another decade Lindberg flew solo across the Atlantic, thus I would put more credence or faith in current models than previous ones.

In short, follow the trends of the models.

[tabasco]

35. I remember when scientists predicted the ocean's fishing banks could become depleted by overfishing

Right-wingers screeched it was just more liberal, environmental nonsense.

You sound like one of them.

[Rage for Order]

38. What do fishing banks have to do with this study?

Oh, that's right...nothing :eyes:

These researchers have yet to predict anything correctly, and until they do I'll take their alarmist report, designed to get them more funding via government grants, with a grain of salt.

[patriotvoice]

28. Care to bet on it? http://www.longbets.org/

I'll wager $5,000 US 2009 dollars that this prediction will NOT come true.

[Sin]

29. This was out in 2007 ish i think

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pm6hkAPxWqQ

All the parts are up on youtube I think
Six Degrees Could Change The World.

Give it a watch if ya haven't seen it already.

[Doctor_J]

31. My dirt nap will be nice and warm

no blanket needed.

[JI7]

34. hopefully an asteroid will hit and wipe out humanity before then

[defendandprotect]

36. Here in NJ we're officially 25 degrees above normal . . .

that was the report 5 years or so ago here . . .

And, I'd say we're close to 30 degrees over now --

And, I'd also point out that generally all of the Global Warming predictions

underestimated the damage and the urgency and the timing. Glaciers are collapsing

long before their estimates.


Also keep in mind that Global Warming has a 50 year delay ...

so we're now only up to 1959 in feeling the effects of the damage we have done.

Think of how many more cars were being put on the road during that period --

how much more oil spewed into the atmosphere!