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U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible

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Hugabear (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Wed Jan-14-09 12:08 PM
Original message
U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible
Source: El Paso Times

EL PASO - Mexico is one of two countries that "bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse," according to a report by the U.S. Joint Forces Command on worldwide security threats.

The command's "Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)" report, which contains projections of global threats and potential next wars, puts Pakistan on the same level as Mexico. "In terms of worse-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico.

"The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and press by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone."

Read more: http://www.elpasotimes.com/newupdated/ci_11444354



Thank god Bush is almost out of here! I trust Obama to deal with this situation much more than I would that fucking warmonger.

How many of these problems could be solved if everyone just decriminalized drugs?
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   Replies to this thread
   So does the military rule this country or not. Do you see any mention of  higher class   Jan-14-09 12:19 PM   #1 
   Its been possible for years. The rich are killing the poor more  Acadia Blue   Jan-14-09 12:24 PM   #2 
   What the hell is a "Marxian Model"?  Dr.Phool   Jan-14-09 01:04 PM   #11 
      "Marxist" is the political line.  igil   Jan-14-09 04:13 PM   #21 
         ...describing "the cartel" class vs "the mule" class nt  ohio2007   Jan-17-09 11:14 AM   #50 
   another result of..  naaman fletcher   Jan-14-09 12:28 PM   #3 
   There's no reason for Mexico to be even a 2nd rate country, as you put it.  yardwork   Jan-14-09 02:11 PM   #16 
   Mexico has been busy lending the US money for mayhem everywhere . . .  defendandprotect   Jan-18-09 12:57 AM   #53 
   It isn't that simple.  caseymoz   Jan-14-09 04:46 PM   #22 
   I don't get your point....  naaman fletcher   Jan-15-09 09:48 AM   #35 
   Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications  saigon68   Jan-15-09 02:21 PM   #43 
   the primary reason for Mexico's instability is U.S. drug policy...  mike_c   Jan-14-09 12:28 PM   #4 
   That and they have their own oligarchy to deal with.  RUMMYisFROSTED   Jan-15-09 09:16 AM   #33 
   Drug trafficking could not possibly exist . . .  defendandprotect   Jan-18-09 12:59 AM   #54 
   Decriminalize marijuana and tax it. Man would that help the economy.  HopeHoops   Jan-14-09 12:29 PM   #5 
   why just marijuana?  naaman fletcher   Jan-14-09 12:31 PM   #6 
   I don't know if I would encourage drugs like heroin, meth  Paint It Black   Jan-14-09 12:34 PM   #7 
   well i agree..  naaman fletcher   Jan-14-09 12:40 PM   #8 
   Most people don't like that stuff  Warpy   Jan-14-09 12:42 PM   #9 
   Give me Librium or give me Meth! -n\t  coalition_unwilling   Jan-15-09 09:28 AM   #34 
   Nope, just pot.  PassingFair   Jan-15-09 10:52 AM   #37 
      Legalizing pot alone would have no impact on the prohibition-related violence  High Plains   Jan-16-09 02:19 PM   #47 
         This report is a bit melodramatic.  High Plains   Jan-16-09 02:21 PM   #48 
   $50,000 per year, per prisoner --- release all drug offenders . . .  defendandprotect   Jan-18-09 01:01 AM   #55 
   Not helped by their last round  edwardlindy   Jan-14-09 01:04 PM   #10 
   Don't those Chicano's know that NAFTA solved everything so they can stop quibling  sasquatch   Jan-14-09 01:06 PM   #12 
   What do American nationals of Mexican descent (Chicanos) have to do with this?  readmoreoften   Jan-15-09 01:30 AM   #27 
      Fuck Columbus or who ever named the two continents "America"  nolabels   Jan-16-09 11:35 AM   #45 
   Big Money  bongbong   Jan-14-09 01:37 PM   #13 
   I completely concur with your stance  pointblank   Jan-14-09 04:12 PM   #20 
   Big Prison and Big Law Enforcement are far more responsible than alcohol & tobacco  Nevernose   Jan-14-09 11:49 PM   #24 
      Big Money Redux  bongbong   Jan-15-09 08:40 AM   #32 
         Actually, it's not that hard to brew your own beer.  Coventina   Jan-15-09 11:04 AM   #39 
            The degree of difficulty  bongbong   Jan-15-09 11:26 AM   #40 
   Criminals minds are criminal minds...  Lagomorph   Jan-14-09 01:38 PM   #14 
   With no non-violent drug offenders clogging our prison system...  DCKit   Jan-14-09 02:16 PM   #17 
   LOL. Like the huge increase in kidnapping after Prohibition was repealed?  tabasco   Jan-15-09 10:50 AM   #36 
   Nonsense . . . and we should decriminalize marijuana --  defendandprotect   Jan-18-09 01:05 AM   #56 
   I think the U.S. is at risk for a rapid and sudden collapse.  hunter   Jan-14-09 02:07 PM   #15 
   Nice try, folks, but you're not going to be able to drum up business  TOJ   Jan-14-09 02:20 PM   #18 
   The output of Mexico's Cantarell oil field has fallen 62% from its peak in 2004  GliderGuider   Jan-14-09 02:22 PM   #19 
   Indeed. Oil revenues account for 40% of the Mexican govt. income  NickB79   Jan-15-09 04:31 AM   #30 
   Opens the door for US "intervention"  djp2   Jan-14-09 11:40 PM   #23 
   US elites probably like the current nation-state situation: it allows them  struggle4progress   Jan-15-09 02:19 AM   #29 
      Good point!  ShadesOfGrey   Jan-15-09 10:58 AM   #38 
   What sort of "American response?" Bombing, shock and awe?  IndianaGreen   Jan-14-09 11:58 PM   #25 
   Of course...  djp2   Jan-15-09 02:08 AM   #28 
   Is the JOE report publicly available? (nt)  Posteritatis   Jan-15-09 12:31 AM   #26 
   yes  lanlady   Jan-15-09 06:55 AM   #31 
      Thanks! (nt)  Posteritatis   Jan-15-09 01:17 PM   #41 
   I am reposting something I wrote in 2007 I think is very relevant to this subject.  robertpaulsen   Jan-15-09 02:14 PM   #42 
   If there is a revolution in MX, hopefully it is socialist one.  roamer65   Jan-17-09 11:21 AM   #51 
   Well it is incredibly corrupt...  MellowDem   Jan-15-09 07:42 PM   #44 
   They are just now realizing this???  4dsc   Jan-16-09 11:42 AM   #46 
   Unemployed Man Caught With New Hummer & $1.2 Million ( Mexico ? )  ohio2007   Jan-17-09 11:12 AM   #49 
   We wouldn't have anything to do with the "criminal gangs" or the "Drug Cartels" . . .  defendandprotect   Jan-18-09 12:54 AM   #52 
 
peacetalksforall (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Wed Jan-14-09 12:19 PM
Response to Original message
1. So does the military rule this country or not. Do you see any mention of
Edited on Wed Jan-14-09 12:23 PM by higher class
the 'next administration' here? I promise this - if anything is prettied up for attacking Mexico, they will also attack Cuba. Just because they can.

To the citizens of this country who always have to attempt to keep us in a state of submission for fear to our borders -

Try peace. Imagine peace. Go after the criminals, not the innocents.

Try it - it will buy all of us a better future.

Everytime I hear a warning like this it makes me wonder what new weapons will need to be tested around the time of the prediction and fear gear.
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Acadia Blue (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Wed Jan-14-09 12:24 PM
Response to Original message
2. Its been possible for years. The rich are killing the poor more
and more by paying starvation wages. Its a classic Marxian modle.
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Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Wed Jan-14-09 01:04 PM
Response to Reply #2
11. What the hell is a "Marxian Model"?
And what are you talking about?
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Igel (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Wed Jan-14-09 04:13 PM
Response to Reply #11
21. "Marxist" is the political line.
A Marxist model would be one followed by his adherents or proposed by Marxists, as well as in keeping with Marx's theories themselves. It's a bit more ambiguous that it needs to be.

"Marxian" is more in accord with Marx's theories, without regard to his followers. It's a less ambiguous term.

Google "Marxian model" and see what pops up.

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ohio2007 (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Jan-17-09 11:14 AM
Response to Reply #21
50. ...describing "the cartel" class vs "the mule" class nt
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naaman fletcher (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Wed Jan-14-09 12:28 PM
Response to Original message
3. another result of..
The war on drugs. If not for the WOD, Mexico would just be another 2nd rate country, but now it is the home of the massive drug gangs who effectively rule it. Free the world, end the WOD.
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yardwork (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Wed Jan-14-09 02:11 PM
Response to Reply #3
16. There's no reason for Mexico to be even a 2nd rate country, as you put it.
It's a relatively large country with vast natural resources, including several very fertile growing zones. Mexico should be a wealthy first-world country. We can look to long-time U.S. policy for many of the reasons it's not.
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defendandprotect Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sun Jan-18-09 12:57 AM
Response to Reply #16
53. Mexico has been busy lending the US money for mayhem everywhere . . .
while NEVER investing in its own citizens -- jobs -- whatever ---

They are at our total disposal --

and the US is also on its way to be a GOP "third world nation" ---
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caseymoz Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Wed Jan-14-09 04:46 PM
Response to Reply #3
22. It isn't that simple.

You're still going to have the same murderous criminals running the drug trade, at least for a few generations, and addictive drugs are must-have for the addicts, and demand isn't going to go down. Neither of those are going to change with legalization.

I wouldn't say that ending the War on Drugs wouldn't be a right step, but it's hardly a complete solution to the problem.

Actually, given the horrible downturn in the economy and the fact that all the states are buckling under it, the WOD might be effectively over now anyway.
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naaman fletcher (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Thu Jan-15-09 09:48 AM
Response to Reply #22
35. I don't get your point....
All the drug dealers add is a willingness to sell a drug that is illegal. If they were legal, corporations would sell them legally. For example, when Prohibition was repealed, the Al Capone types went out of business. Same thing would happen here.
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saigon68 Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Thu Jan-15-09 02:21 PM
Response to Reply #3
43. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications
War is coming
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mike_c Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Wed Jan-14-09 12:28 PM
Response to Original message
4. the primary reason for Mexico's instability is U.S. drug policy...
...combined with U.S. drug demand. What's the definition of insanity, again?
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RUMMYisFROSTED (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Thu Jan-15-09 09:16 AM
Response to Reply #4
33. That and they have their own oligarchy to deal with.
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defendandprotect Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sun Jan-18-09 12:59 AM
Response to Reply #4
54. Drug trafficking could not possibly exist . . .
Edited on Sun Jan-18-09 01:00 AM by defendandprotect
without the corruption of elected officials and police enforcement ---

The Drug War is a filthy lie intended to enrich a few and destroy and co-opt

other nations. It's as handy as religion for that!!
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HopeHoops Donating Member (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Wed Jan-14-09 12:29 PM
Response to Original message
5. Decriminalize marijuana and tax it. Man would that help the economy.
And it would keep so many people out of jail for minor drug offenses with mandatory sentences, not to mention early release for violent offenders to ease overcrowding!

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naaman fletcher (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Wed Jan-14-09 12:31 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. why just marijuana?
do it for all drugs.
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Hugabear (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Wed Jan-14-09 12:34 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. I don't know if I would encourage drugs like heroin, meth
But I sure as hell wouldn't criminalize them either. But marijuana really isn't that bad, certainly no worse than tobacco or alcohol, and does have some benefits.
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naaman fletcher (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Wed Jan-14-09 12:40 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. well i agree..
That MJ is no big deal, but stuff like what is going on in Mexico, the violations of our rights, the gangland wars, etc. Are due to cocaine rather than marijuana.
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Warpy Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Wed Jan-14-09 12:42 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. Most people don't like that stuff
So many of us went through the drug years in the 60s and so few of us wound up addicted that the whole premise of the drug war is shot through of holes right there.

My own experience with hospitalized patients suggests that 3 days is enough for most people taking powerful narcotics. After that, they just want to get back to normal, thanks, even if it means more pain.

The per capita addiction rate has not decreased since the drug war was declared in the early years of the last century when opiates had been freely available to everyone over the counter.

Finally, nobody disputes meth is a bad drug. However, most people would choose the less harmful drugs were they available and the few unhappy souls who go down the meth road would serve as examples of what not to do.

The bottom line to the drug war is that we lost, the drugs won. No junkie is deprived for long. I can point to two open air drug supermarkets within walking distance of my own house. Legalizing it so that anybody can walk into a Walgreen's and pick up his drug of choice at a reliable dose and not cut with trash like cement dust or worse will take every bit of profit out of street drugs and collapse the gangs, here and abroad.

Not giving cash to bad guys who chop their enemies' heads off is a good thing. For those who don't know, this is what is happening during the drug wars in Mexico, not just among them heathen Ay rabs.

Declaring sin of any type illegal does not work. It just makes sin more popular.
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coalition_unwilling (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Thu Jan-15-09 09:28 AM
Response to Reply #7
34. Give me Librium or give me Meth! -n\t
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PassingFair Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Thu Jan-15-09 10:52 AM
Response to Reply #6
37. Nope, just pot.
No slippery slope...

Just stop there.
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High Plains (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Fri Jan-16-09 02:19 PM
Response to Reply #37
47. Legalizing pot alone would have no impact on the prohibition-related violence
in Mexico. Those cartels got fat off cocaine, and to a lesser degree, heroin and meth. They provide the drugs America loves to hate, or it hates to love?
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High Plains (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Fri Jan-16-09 02:21 PM
Response to Reply #47
48. This report is a bit melodramatic.
The Mexican state is not on the verge of collapse. It may be being subverted by the tons of money the cartels use to buy politicians, but the Mexican government isn't going anywhere.
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defendandprotect Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sun Jan-18-09 01:01 AM
Response to Reply #5
55. $50,000 per year, per prisoner --- release all drug offenders . . .
and put them into the medical system for addiction ---

This prison system --- bigger than China's now -- is a threat to every citizen in US.

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dipsydoodle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Donate to DU! Wed Jan-14-09 01:04 PM
Response to Original message
10. Not helped by their last round
of hooky elections.
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sasquatch Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Wed Jan-14-09 01:06 PM
Response to Original message
12. Don't those Chicano's know that NAFTA solved everything so they can stop quibling
Edited on Wed Jan-14-09 01:06 PM by sasquatch
:sarcasm:
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readmoreoften (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Thu Jan-15-09 01:30 AM
Response to Reply #12
27. What do American nationals of Mexican descent (Chicanos) have to do with this?
:shrug:
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nolabels (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Fri Jan-16-09 11:35 AM
Response to Reply #27
45. Fuck Columbus or who ever named the two continents "America"
People who cling to the ownership society are being replaced by a reinvented society to represent them for something different, may the new fangled way work out better for us all :toast:
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bongbong (258 posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Wed Jan-14-09 01:37 PM
Response to Original message
13. Big Money
The tobacco and alcohol industries will make sure pot is never legalized, no matter how many deaths occur because of the "War On Drugs".

Just remember that OMY (One More Yacht) for a Fatcat is much, much more important than deaths of peons. I believe the currently ratio is 1/100 ...

meaning that a 1 inch increase in the length of the yacht that a fatcat can afford is worth 100 peon deaths. Thus, if a fatcat gets enough money so that his 4th yacht, for example, is 10 feet longer than his 3rd yacht, it is OK to "spend" 1200 peon's lives on it.
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pointblank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Wed Jan-14-09 04:12 PM
Response to Reply #13
20. I completely concur with your stance
Edited on Wed Jan-14-09 04:13 PM by pointblank
except for the math...its off.

The peon ratio today is much higher...experts estimate it to possibly be as high as 500 to 1. I personally believe it is higher than that...

You are using outdated data from the 70's, when the peon ratio hit a plateau and then began to rise quite alarmingly in the 80's, until the early 90's when we actually saw the start of a small decline in the ratio; This decline was completely negated, however, when we saw it spike sharply beginning in 2000 with the entrance of the Bush cartel.

}(
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Nevernose Donating Member (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Wed Jan-14-09 11:49 PM
Response to Reply #13
24. Big Prison and Big Law Enforcement are far more responsible than alcohol & tobacco
Big Prison and Big Law Enforcement are far more responsible than alcohol & tobacco -- same amount of money, ten times the political pull.
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bongbong (258 posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Thu Jan-15-09 08:40 AM
Response to Reply #24
32. Big Money Redux
Yes, the "law enforcement" lobbies are also a problem, but I believe the biggest offender is the legal intoxicant industry. Reason? You can easily grow your own pot, but it is hard to brew your own beer or make your own spirits, and harder x 100 to make your own tobacco.

If pot was legal, the sales of tobacco would drop by 1/2 overnight, and the sales of alcohol would drop by >1/2 overnight (overnight meaning in a year or less :-)
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Coventina (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Thu Jan-15-09 11:04 AM
Response to Reply #32
39. Actually, it's not that hard to brew your own beer.
Several of my friends do it.

I really doubt that one half of drinkers would suddenly turn to pot if pot were legalized.
I've tried pot, it doesn't "do it" for me. I like alcohol (in moderate amounts). I suspect that most people by their early 20's have found their "drug of choice" and are probably going to stick with it.

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bongbong (258 posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Thu Jan-15-09 11:26 AM
Response to Reply #39
40. The degree of difficulty
I've had plenty of home-brewed beer (from friends, not my own). Yes, it isn't hard to make your own beer, but you have to buy the equipment or make it. Then you have to make about 20 kegs before you get a decent brew :-). Basically, it takes some work.

Now, compare that amount of work to sprinkling some seeds in the ground. Remember, it is a weed and grows quite easily. Again, not something I've done myself, but have sampled the fruits of friends' labors, although not in many a moon. I am now approaching old-fart-hood.

I agree with your point that some people would stick with alcohol; I probably would myself. So, perhaps my estimate of half is too high...but it would still be significant...which is why I think the legal intoxicants lobbies are a major force behind prolonging the endless "War On Drugs"
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Lagomorph Donating Member (912 posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Wed Jan-14-09 01:38 PM
Response to Original message
14. Criminals minds are criminal minds...
If we decriminalize drugs, they'll turn to kidnapping, prostitution, piracy, theft, robbery or whatever let's them keep ALL the money without doing any of that humble, boring work.

These are people who will simply not submit to anybody's authority, ever.

Just the same, it would save the U.S. a bundle.
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DCKit Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Wed Jan-14-09 02:16 PM
Response to Reply #14
17. With no non-violent drug offenders clogging our prison system...
(not to mention the courts) there'd be plenty of room for the kidnappers, pirates, theives and robbers. Of course prostitution should also be legalized.

By not needing to expend disproportionate resources investigating victimless crime, current staffing and funding levels of law enforcement would be more than adequate to clamp down on actual crime and repopulate the prison system with deserving candidates.

If only the amount of money, materials and manpower dedicated to hunting out patches of ditchweed, grow houses and small-time pot dealers across the country were rededicated to actual crime, actual criminals have reason to feel real fear and fewer people would ever begin a life of crime.

I don't see a downside.
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tabasco Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Thu Jan-15-09 10:50 AM
Response to Reply #14
36. LOL. Like the huge increase in kidnapping after Prohibition was repealed?
I can't find that in the history books.

They just went more into the illegal drug business.
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defendandprotect Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sun Jan-18-09 01:05 AM
Response to Reply #14
56. Nonsense . . . and we should decriminalize marijuana --
And, btw, what difference if they existed on welfare -- ???

It would still be cheaper than supporting prisons, guards, etc. and $50,000 per year

per prisoner!!!

PLUS, what do you have after they've spent a few years in jail --- perhaps a more

accomplished criminal???

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hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Wed Jan-14-09 02:07 PM
Response to Original message
15. I think the U.S. is at risk for a rapid and sudden collapse.
Probably more so than Mexico.

Mexico is pretty close to the ground already, and will be easily absorbed into an emerging Latin American power structure.

We're a very tall empire with a rotting foundation. When we collapse it won't be pretty.
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Doctor_J Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Wed Jan-14-09 02:20 PM
Response to Original message
18. Nice try, folks, but you're not going to be able to drum up business
any more. you work for us starting next week, not the other way around.
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GliderGuider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Donate to DU! Wed Jan-14-09 02:22 PM
Response to Original message
19. The output of Mexico's Cantarell oil field has fallen 62% from its peak in 2004
Edited on Wed Jan-14-09 02:23 PM by GliderGuider
How much of the rise of the drug cartels has been driven by the creeping impoverishment of Mexico due their crashing oil supply? I know the situation is more complex than that, but let's not forget about Peak Oil.
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NickB79 (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Thu Jan-15-09 04:31 AM
Response to Reply #19
30. Indeed. Oil revenues account for 40% of the Mexican govt. income
The drop in oil prices has hurt them badly already. The peaking of their major oil fields prevents them from simply pumping more oil to offset the falling prices. The lower prices also make it prohibitive to drill and exploit smaller, more costly oil fields they have left.

Caught between a rock and a hard place.
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djp2 (198 posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Wed Jan-14-09 11:40 PM
Response to Original message
23. Opens the door for US "intervention"
US then can move in (invade) to secure our borders, etc...and eventually take over Mexico. and make Mexico part of United North America!!! Just what they want to happen!
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struggle4progress Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Donate to DU! Thu Jan-15-09 02:19 AM
Response to Reply #23
29. US elites probably like the current nation-state situation: it allows them
a plentiful supply of cheap Mexican laborers who can be deported back to Mexico if they begin to fight for their rights here
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ShadesOfGrey (646 posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Thu Jan-15-09 10:58 AM
Response to Reply #29
38. Good point!

The US Elites found a new form of slavery and will not let it be tampered with.
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IndianaGreen Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Wed Jan-14-09 11:58 PM
Response to Original message
25. What sort of "American response?" Bombing, shock and awe?
America has a dismal record when it comes to intervention in other countries. Haven't we learned yet?
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djp2 (198 posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Thu Jan-15-09 02:08 AM
Response to Reply #25
28. Of course...
...helpful intervention.. which will lead to a puppet government, which will then join in the North American Union.
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Posteritatis (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Thu Jan-15-09 12:31 AM
Response to Original message
26. Is the JOE report publicly available? (nt)
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lanlady Donating Member (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Thu Jan-15-09 06:55 AM
Response to Reply #26
31. yes
It can be downloaded here and elsewhere:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/2...
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Posteritatis (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Thu Jan-15-09 01:17 PM
Response to Reply #31
41. Thanks! (nt)
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robertpaulsen (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Thu Jan-15-09 02:14 PM
Response to Original message
42. I am reposting something I wrote in 2007 I think is very relevant to this subject.
robertpaulsen (1000+ posts) Sat Jul-14-07 07:54 PM
Original message
We need to wake up to what's going on in Mexico NOW.

For about the last month or so, I have been watching with increasing concern dangerous developments in Mexico. Not just regarding the election being stolen from AMLO, increasingly violent escalation between drug cartels and government forces, or even the flight of economic refugees across the US/Mexico border. In my opinion, these are all symptoms of one overriding political and economic problem: oil depletion. In 2004, oil production peaked in Mexico and by almost all accounts, the decline is not going to be gradual:

Mexico: Peak Oil in Action

There is a present-day example of the World Problematique unfolding on the North American continent. It involves Peak Oil, climate change, food scarcity and socioeconomic instability. It brings the nature of the problems the world will face over the next few decades into stark relief.
The Scenario

* Mexico's biggest oil field is Cantarell. Its 2 million barrel per day output was responsible for 60% of Mexico's production, and all its oil exports to the United States.
* Those oil exports account for 40% of Mexico's public funding.
* Cantarell's output is known to be crashing (see graphic above). Production has declined by 25% in the last year and is predicted to be down about 60% from its peak by the end of 2007. The field will probably lose over 75% of its production capacity by the end of 2008.
* When this happens Mexico's economy will probably implode.
* The United States currently exports about 20% of its corn crop.
* Next year, 20% of the United States' corn crop is going to be used for ethanol.
* Mexico imports a substantial amount of corn from the United States.
* As Cantarell's output declines, oil exports to the US will drop in lockstep.
* As oil imports drop in the US, the pressure will mount to produce more ethanol as a substitute.
* As more corn is bought by the American ethanol industry, US corn exports, especially to Mexico, will slide.
* At the same time the probability is high that Global Warming will result in higher temperatures in Mexico, a country already at temperature risk.
* Rising temperatures will bring more drought conditions and a drop in Mexico's own corn production.
* Now you have a country with a decimated economy and declining food. This is a recipe for massive migration.
* The migration moves North as it has in the past, but this time in enormous numbers.
* As the economic refugees cross the border what do they find?
* In January, 2006, KBR (a subsidiary of Halliburton) was given a $385M contract to build a string of very large detention camps in the United States...

Peak oil, global warming, food, biofuels and authoritarianism — all rolled up into one neat but ugly little package. Coming to a border near you within 3 years.

snip

The Spectre of Revolution

When contemplating Mexico's future you should always remember her past. Mexican history is full of revolutionary episodes: the War of Independence of 1810; the Mexican Civil War or War of Reform of 1857; the Mexican Revolution of 1910; the Zapatista actions in Chiapas in 1994; and the recent violent confrontations in Oaxaca.

The effect of NAFTA on the lives of the Mexican poor has been devastating. In an echo of the enclosure movement in Britain many have been forced off land they traditionally occupied, either by economic circumstances or legislation. A good overview of Mexican agrarian history, including the impact of NAFTA, is available in this FAO document.

The 100+ year-old push-pull effect of the US economy on Mexican migration is a very well documented historical phenomenon. This time, circumstances are somewhat different. Many Mexican campesinos — subsistence farmers that either owned their own land or held it jointly in a collective called an ejido — were forced off their land due to NAFTA rules that allowed the dumping of highly subsidized, below market-priced US corn on the Mexican market. The land is still there, but now sits idle. In the event of a severe economic downturn there would likely be a large movement to return to the land as well as increased northward migration.

Cantarell's crash and PEMEX's impending bankruptcy present a political crisis of the first magnitude for Mexico's elite and threaten the stability of the small middle class. This crisis presents a great opportunity for the long downtrodden majority to gain power as has happened in Bolivia, Ecuador and Venezuela. Conditions will be ripe for a resurgence of revolutionary sentiment in Mexico, which will probably take the form of an import of the Bolivarian Revolution championed by Hugo Chavez.

Of course, having such an incendiary political movement on their very doorstep will not sit well with the American industrial/political establishment. The probability of direct American political, economic and even military involvement in Mexican affairs as a result should not be lightly dismissed.


more...

http://www.paulchefurka.com/Mexico%20and%20the%20Proble...


This is a perfect recipe for recession in America and revolution in Mexico. If those numbers are correct expect that stew to come to a boil before Dumbya leaves office in January 2009. As you can see, the pot is already starting to simmer:


Mexico: A Nation-State Dissolves?
Posted by jeffvail on July 12, 2007 - 10:00am

In my annual new years predictions, I said that the most significant, and surprising, development of 2007 would be the collapse of both Mexico’s economy and its very existence as a viable Nation-State. While there hasn’t been a spectacular, single event confirming my prediction, there has been a steady erosion on all fronts—with five months left in the year, I’m not yet willing to push back my prediction of Mexico’s “collapse” to 2008. The decline of the Mexican Nation-State is a bellwether for the massively complex network of geopolitical influences sometimes termed above ground factors. It provides some insight into how symptoms of oil scarcity already being felt in poorer parts of the world will increasingly spill over into our own back yard…

snip

Before I highlight the specific events that are undermining the Mexican Nation-State, let me talk first for a moment about what it means for a Nation-State to collapse, an important topic as it’s an experience that will become increasingly common over the next decade. When a Nation-State collapses, the cities don’t all catch on fire simultaneously whilst roving hoards pillage the countryside and the population starves. Nation-State collapse is not the apocalypse—it is exactly what it suggests to be: the collapse of the notional union of Nation and State under one central, viable government. Nation-State collapse also doesn’t suggest that there will no longer be Nation-States. It is my prediction that there will be a Mexico, an Iraq, etc. for quite a long time. What collapse does mean is that the importance of Nation-States will decline sharply, as they become increasingly ineffectual both domestically and internationally. Nor does the decline of the Nation-State mean the decline of Nationalism and similar identifying sentiments. Quite the opposite: as States increasingly fail to care for their constituent Nations, those Nations will become increasingly susceptible to the black shirts and brown shirts of history, but these movements will be increasingly dissociated from States, more similar in organizational model to al-Qa’ida than to Nazi Germany. (See The New Map, a paper that I presented at the 2006 Yale International Law Conference, for an overview of this notion of the end of the Nation-State)

Mexico’s Oil Production is Collapsing

Production from Mexico’s Cantarell field is collapsing, and production from new fields are not making up the difference. It appears very likely that Mexico has permanently passed its peak oil production. On top of that, domestic consumption is rising, creating the classic Export Land effect: declining production and rising domestic consumption equal accelerated declines in exports. Taxes from these export revenues generate the largest share of revenue for the federal government. Recent reductions in the tax rate that the government applies to PEMEX, the state oil company, shows that this key source of revenue is failing. The collapse of Mexican oil production has been extensively discussed elsewhere—here it is only my aim to highlight this as a component in the collapse of the Mexican Nation-State, and the positive feedback loops between the two events.

snip
Mexico’s Monopoly on Violence is Collapsing

Not that Mexico was ever a poster-child for civic safety and effective policing, but the situation has grown considerably worse in the past year. There are mass desertions among the federal police. Outright infantry battles between crime organizations and the government are becoming a common occurrence. Hundreds, perhaps thousands, of police, judges, government officials, and reporters have been assassinated over the past few years. What control the federal government continues to exercise in states such as Sonora, Sinaloa, and Nuevo Leon is mainly due to the fact that crime organizations don’t want to actually take over the territory—they already experience the benefits of acting as a sovereign government without the burdens, and they’re happy to leave those burdens to the “official” government.

more...

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2752

Then there was this in yesterday's LA Times:

Mexican troops to guard energy sites
Guerrilla attacks on pipelines have caused fuel shortages for factories.
By Héctor Tobar, Times Staff Writer
July 13, 2007


MEXICO CITY — Mexican President Felipe Calderon has dispatched a new 5,000-strong elite military unit to guard strategic sites, including oil refineries and hydroelectric dams, in the wake of guerrilla attacks on pipelines operated by the national oil and gas company, Pemex, according to news reports Thursday.

Business leaders said as many as 1,000 factories and other businesses in the Guanajuato-Queretaro region of central Mexico have been forced to shut down or reduce operations this week because of fuel shortages caused by attacks this month.

The leftist Popular Revolutionary Army, or EPR, claimed responsibility for the attacks Tuesday, saying they were in retaliation for the disappearance of two of their militants last year in the southern state of Oaxaca.

The EPR communique said the rebels had bombed three pipelines and a switching station in Queretaro and Guanajuato states. The explosions severed natural gas pipelines and a crude oil pipeline that links storage facilities in the Gulf of Mexico port of Poza Rica to a refinery in Salamanca, in Guanajuato, reducing fuel supplies in the region.

more...

http://articles.latimes.com/2007/jul/13/world/fg-pemex1...

You heard it here first, Mexico is going to be THE campaign issue by summer of 2008 and we better be prepared to deal with this humanely to counter the racism and/or xenophobia of the Rethugs. As you can see from the bold section on KBR's detention camps and with the increased use of PMCs by the neo-cons, they already have a plan to deal with this situation.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

While I may have been off with my prediction that this would be a campaign issue, this is still a MAJOR CRISIS that we need to be aware of. The opportunity for us to deal with the situation humanely is greater under an Obama administration, but we still have the problem that the detention camps are privately owned by KBR. If Kellogg, Brown and Root decided to hire Blackwater thugs for their detention center security, I'm not sure what legal recourse AG Holder would have to stop it until or unless abuses were proven. Not to mention the abuses we will see in the rise of hate crimes in the general populace, Lou Dobbs having an apoplectic fit 24/7, etc. We're going to have our hands full.
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roamer65 (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Jan-17-09 11:21 AM
Response to Reply #42
51. If there is a revolution in MX, hopefully it is socialist one.
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MellowDem (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Thu Jan-15-09 07:42 PM
Response to Original message
44. Well it is incredibly corrupt...
but as long as the US acts as a safety valve for hundreds of thousands of Mexicans every year, I think things will stay calm. And everyone wins! :sarcasm:
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4dsc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Fri Jan-16-09 11:42 AM
Response to Original message
46. They are just now realizing this???
Heck, the people at theoildrum.com were talking about this back in Sept of 2007..

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2752

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ohio2007 (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sat Jan-17-09 11:12 AM
Response to Original message
49. Unemployed Man Caught With New Hummer & $1.2 Million ( Mexico ? )

Unemployed Man Caught With New Hummer & $1.2 Million


MEXICO: Police stopped a suspicious vehicle transiting in a run-down slum and found $73,000 U.S. cash, a 14k gold-plated Ak-47, $1.2 million in pure-grade cocaine, and several bullet-proof vests inside. The man claimed he was an unemployed factory worker, he was detained under suspicion of being a drug dealer or a cartel hitman.
-

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=2f4_1232206803

high chee-wa-wa
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defendandprotect Donating Member (1000+ posts)  Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Sun Jan-18-09 12:54 AM
Response to Original message
52. We wouldn't have anything to do with the "criminal gangs" or the "Drug Cartels" . . .
Edited on Sun Jan-18-09 12:55 AM by defendandprotect
by any chance ... would we???

Watch out Canada . . . !!!

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