December Job Losses Off The Charts

[leveymg]

Source: 247wallst.com, Reuters

http://www.247wallst.com/2009/01/adp-sees-decemb.html

January 07, 2009


This is a revised number with new methodology, but ADP's job loss number predictions for December are off the chart. ADP had previously been under expectations where Wall Street economists were 500,000 non-farm payroll losses. This new revised target from ADP is now showing that ADP expects to see a contraction in total jobs by a whopping 693,000 in December.

The breakdown is as follows:

* Small businesses -281,000
* Medium businesses -321,000
* Large businesses -91,000

OR BY SECTOR

* Goods-producing sector -220,000
* Service-providing sector -473,000

As ADP stated: Beginning this month, the ADP Report will incorporate methodological improvements intended to improve the correspondence between the nonfarm private employment estimates shown in the ADP Report and estimates published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation Report.

Please be advised that ADP has still been very questionable on its estimates. It does offer some insight, but its numbers have fluctuated wildly in good times and in bad times when compared to the BLS data.

Jon C. Ogg
January 7, 2009

Even India's tech sector is slumping badly, as everybody recalibrates their data. Corporate fraud and overinflated earnings are a global problem. The rosy picture of economic recovery we all received during the Bush era seems to have been a Big Lie. The whole world now looks to be going down together.

http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSN02ELLSNA20090107

Stock futures drop before ADP jobs data
Wed Jan 7, 2009 8:03am EST

By Ellis Mnyandu

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stock index futures fell on Wednesday due to caution ahead of an economic report likely to show further deterioration in the labor market.

Investors also worried that the corporate profit outlook would stay bleak for a while even as Washington pushes for a plan to revive the world's largest economy.

The ADP National Employment Report is due at 8:15 a.m., two days before the key U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for December.

Sentiment also took a knock on a revelation that India's Satyam Computer Services (SAY.N) (SATY.BO) falsely inflated earnings for years. The news sent India's main equity index SENSEX plunging 7 percent.

The fraud at the major business software and back-office services company could add to investor anxieties about the integrity of the markets

Read more: http://www.247wallst.com/2009/01/adp-sees-decemb.html

[alcibiades_mystery]

1. Dubya's going-away present

Fuck you, Bushie.

[cullen2382]

2. my husband's hours were just cut

down to 32 a week. He works for a small, custom made cabinetry business in Atlanta. That takes 110 a week away from our family of four when times are already tight. Could be worse, instead of cutting everyone's hours, his boss could have cut out an employee or two. If things don't pick up soon though I'm not sure his boss will still have a business to work at. I go to University full time and work part time as a waitress. I see a very good chance of unemployment in his future and double shifts in mine on top of schoolwork and trying to spend some time with my family. Something has got to be done.

[acmavm]

3. Mine have been cut too. Hard telling from one week to the next

what I'll get.

I got 32 for the past TWO weeks total.

[Dr.Phool]

4. If ADP's numbers are bad. You can believe they're catastrophic.

ADP is always wrong. And they're always wrong towards the rosy side.

[Muttocracy]

7. uh oh. nt

[Baby Snooks]

5. It's getting worse...

The next six months will probably be looked back on as the second Great Depression. The question is whether the majority of Americans will survive this one. Some already are not. Six months may turn into six years.

We have a complicit Congress that seems intent on bailing out crooks instead of holding them accountable. We are still "by the corporation, for the corporation."

I have a friend who was pompous about it all the past several years. She had worked hard, saved well. People were just lazy. And then she lost her retirement to bad investments. She's too old to go back to work and "recoup it" and she's a Democrat who is now faced with the reality.

It's not just the Republicans who have taken the "let them eat cake" attitude. It's quite a few Democrats as well. Maybe when they only have the cake left things will change.

The rest of us do not have a voice. That has been made perfectly clear by Congress. Stimulating Wall Street is not stimulating our economy. It is merely stimulating the economy of Wall Street.

[LiberalEsto]

6. My husband got laid off Dec. 23

This is the first time in his 24 year career as an IT professional.
I haven't had any work since October. I'm a part time copywriter.

My daughter told me that her friends are giving up apartments and moving back with their parents to help their financially struggling families.

It was hard finding work during the 1975 recession, and again in 1990-91. But I've never seen things look this bad before.

[JCMach1]

8. Shocking! They change how it is counted just before Obama arrives!

:grr:

[Delphinus]

9. Not only do these people lose their jobs,

more than likely they lose their health insurance, if they're lucky enough to be receiving it from their employers. Sure there's COBRA, but when you're unemployed, who the hell can afford it?

[DemReadingDU]

10. What's it going to be in January/February?

When all those retail/restaurant business are bankrupt and laying off thousands more.

[TomClash]

11. ADP is crap

But the numbers are bad and will be bad for the first two quarters of 2009. Most businesses are having trouble getting paid even when they do ship goods or provide services. The MSM does not help matters by exhorting people to spend less - that simply causes more contraction and further job cuts.

This is Capital's fault. There was too much of it around due to the ridiculous tax cuts and souped up war economy and absurdly low capital gains tax rate. That led to some ridiculous investment strategies and bubbles. Too little attention has been paid to the fact that the economy had excess capital.

[Doctor_J]

12. But he kept us safe

Starting on Sep 12, 2001