Labour gaining on Tories, poll shows

[IndianaGreen]

Source: The Guardian

Labour gaining on Tories, poll shows

Matthew Taylor
The Guardian, Tuesday December 9 2008

Labour has closed the gap on the Conservatives and cemented its position as the party most trusted to deal with the recession, according to a poll published today.

Voters prefer Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling over David Cameron and George Osborne by 40% to 31%, with a six-point jump in their lead since the pre-budget report on November 24.

The Populus poll for the Times also showed an improvement in Labour's overall standing with the Conservative lead narrowing to 4% - its lowest in a Populus poll since March. It also recorded a marked drop in Labour voters considering switching to the Tories.

According to the poll the Conservatives are on 39%, down 2%, Labour on 35%, unchanged from November, and the Liberal Democrats on 17%, up one.

Last week an ICM poll for the Guardian had the Tories extending their lead over Labour to 15 points and led to speculation that Brown's handling of the economic crisis was not going down well with voters. ICM found that while people picked Labour over the Conservatives as the best party to manage the economy, the Tories were still in an election-winning position, with strong opposition to more borrowing and tax rises. Based on last week's ICM figures the Conservatives could expect to win around 380 seats, enough for a comfortable majority. Labour would win about 210 seats, 140 fewer than it holds today.


Read more: http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/dec/09/labour-c...

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Gordon Brown lacks the charisma of a David Cameron. I don't see Labour winning, despite this poll.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

1. I couldn't say for sure either way

though a Hung Parliament may well be result after the next election (that is when no political party holds a majority of seats).

David Cameron is a Blair clone in Tory-blue colours. He lacks the intellect of Gordon Brown, but the failed promises, the Wars, and the right-ward shift of New Labour counts against the Labour Party.

The surge in Labour's poll rating is working class voters coming back after the cut in national sales tax and the increase in the upper tax rate from 40% to 45%.

Another thing is that Labour has stolen a match on the Tories on economic policy. The Tories are stuck in the monetarist mindset and cannot follow Labour's economic move to the Left, and this has paralysed the Tories somewhat.

[Idealism]

2. George Osborne is a typical Conservative

I heard a few lectures from the LSE where he did nothing but criticize Brown attempting to (rightly) increase public spending during a particularly nasty recession; he is like many Conservatives in this country still are even today: "small government" hypocrites who readily will spend, yet denounce you in doing so.

[LeftishBrit]

5. Yes. Can't stand him.

He combines the modern Thatcher-influenced site of Conservativism with a now mostly-outdated variety: he is a very young aristocrat who got into politics because he came from a Top Family, not because of any merit or experience. Common in Tories 50 years ago, but unusual now.

Anyway I wouldn't trust him with the economy.

[LeftishBrit]

4. Good summary

I don't think that any party will have a huge majority next time. But a lot can happen in a year and a half, and I certainly hope that Cameron won't get in. (The good news about Cameron is that he isn't Thatcher. The bad news is that he *is* Blair.)

The mess with the economy has contributed to an 'anti-incumbent mood', to use an American expression, and Brown is suffering from that, as well as from his party's real failures.

[T_i_B]

3. If the stimulus and the bail-out works....

then Brown may still have a chance at the next election, otherwise Labour are going to be in big trouble.

[muriel_volestrangler]

6. The polls are all over the place

18th Nov, Ipsos Mori: Con 40%, Lab 37% (says 2 months before that, the Tory lead was 28%)
29th Nov, ICM: Con 45%, Lab 30%
30th Nov, Ipsos Mori: Con 43%, Lab 32%
2nd Dec, ComRes: Con 37%, Lab 36%

And now this one. Either public opinion is changing at the slightest whim, or the polls aren't doing a good job of random sampling.

[T_i_B]

7. Probably best to wait till the polls settle down.

Won't stop bloggers gloating the moment any poll swings in their parties favour though.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

8. they are all over the place

YouGov poll from 25th November has Conservatives leading by 4%, which would translate into a Hung Parliament.

CON 40
LAB 36
LD 14

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention/youg...

[IndianaGreen]

9. You are right, the polls show the confusion of the British public

as they are hit by the same economic fiasco that is hitting us across the pond. If this were a strict personality contest, Cameron would win easily.