37 Down, 215 to go: Franken edges to victory in recount

[Mark E. Smith]

Source: The Independent (UK)

Comedian in epic struggle for Minnesota senate seat

By Leonard Doyle in Washington
Thursday, 4 December 2008

The former Saturday Night Live comedian Al Franken took the lead
yesterday in a recount of the virtually tied US Senate race in Minnesota.

The Democrats are banking on victory to strengthen their Senate
majority and help turn President-elect Barack Obama's ambitious agenda
of reform into law with minimum delay.

Mr.Franken's campaign announced that, for the first since the recount
began, he had pulled ahead of the Republican Senator, Norm Coleman.

(later ..)

In Minnesota, Mr. Franken's campaign claimed he was ahead of Mr
Coleman by 22 votes. There are 138,000 ballots left to count, with 94.3
per cent of the vote already counted. Thousands of ballots remain in
limbo following changes.

Read more: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/37-dow...

---

To see Norman "Stack O' Hair" Coleman defeated would be about as
good as it gets.

[minnesota_liberal]

1. This story is 1 day old.

As of this morning (12/4/08, 1300 GMT / 0700 CST), 97.58% of ballots have been counted. This according to the Recount page of the MN Secretary of State website: http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/SenateRecount.as...

The page also shows Franken currently ahead in the recount by 11,170 votes, but that number is highly misleading. Ballots not yet recounted are not included, nor are those that have been "challenged" - whether frivolously or for good reason.

The main phase of the recount will finish 12/5/08 and by my calculation, there are 70,664 more Nov 4 ballots yet to be recounted.

If the yet unrecounted ballots are from precincts where 3rd party candidates take their usual 16% and Coleman has an 18% margin on Franken, then Coleman pulls back into the lead.

As for the "challenged" ballots (currently numbering more than 6,000), it's anyone's guess what will happen to them.

And then there's the issue of improperly disallowed absentee ballots.

It's looking better for Franken than it was 3 weeks ago, but there are still many unknowns and it's way too early to celebrate.

[Mark E. Smith]

2. Um, this story is dated 12/4

.. as is yours.

[minnesota_liberal]

3. Check the recount percentage.

[druidity33]

4. thank you...

there is a lot of misinformed rhetoric currently floating around on this board regarding the SoS website totals. Have you posted a thread here about the current situation as an informed Minnesotan? I've been going to TPM for news on this, but mostly they've just reprinted the 2 campaigns Press Releases and talked to Silver.

Anything look weird to you? Any surprises?

[minnesota_liberal]

5. my sources

Besides the SoS website, I've checked these two fairly often:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com /

http://www.mnprogressiveproject.com /

I've given up on the local newspaper (Star Tribune) since they endorsed Coleman and have been unabashedly biased in his favor during the campaign and throughout the recount process.

I consider myself well informed but don't have any inside information and haven't made any OPs on the subject.

[depakid]

6. According to a commentator in the NY Times, the election might be determined by drawing lots!

...in some precincts, we have not just a recount but a re-recount. Both auditors and recounters were hypervigilant to possible sources of error, and yet they disagree on their tallies by about 20 thousandths of a percent.

In an ordinary race, errors this tiny wouldn’t be a problem. But the Coleman-Franken race is so close that this error rate is more than double the margin between the two camps. And that’s just taking into account the precincts where there are no challenges. Throw in the weirdo ballots with lizard people, stray marks and indecipherable dots, and the error rate grows even more. Throw in the missing ballots, and the situation is hopeless. In truth, the counting errors dwarf the tiny numerical difference in votes between the two candidates. If, at the end of the recount, Mr. Coleman or Mr. Franken is ahead by a few dozen or a few hundred votes, that would be because of errors rather than voter preference.

Minnesota’s instruments for counting votes are simply too crude to determine the winner in a race this tight. This is not the state’s fault. In fact, Minnesota’s election laws, procedures and equipment are among the best in the country. The problem is that a voting system that is based on physically recounting chits of paper is inherently error-prone, and in a close election like this, the errors are too large for the process to determine a winner. Even though, at the end of the recount, it will seem as if one candidate has won by a hair, the outcome will really be a statistical tie.

Luckily, Minnesota’s electoral law has a provision for ties. After all the counting and recounting, if the vote is statistically tied, the state should invoke the section of the law that requires the victor to be chosen by lot. It’s hard to swallow, but the right way to end the senatorial race between Mr. Coleman and Mr. Franken will be to flip a coin.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/04/opinion/04seife.html

Wow.

[The Stranger]

9. What's weird is that we keep having these freakishly close elections.

How in the fuck can millions of people divide so evenly? It is mind-boggling.

[grantcart]

13. the election gods have a good sense of humor

that is why Franken is going to win this by either one vote or 69.

[grantcart]

12. And then the Senate would have the final say lol

[dysfunctional press]

14. what do they mean by "statistically tied"..?

is that only in the case of an EXACT tie...? or is there some statistical measure that's used to determine it?


besides- doesn't the u.s. senate itself ultimately have the authority over how a tie would be resolved in this race...?

[MasonJar]

7. Oh, please Lord, let that phony get the ax. I am heartbroken that

we didn't defeat Chambliss. I hate that sorry ass after what he and his machines did to Cleland. If the third party guy had not run, Franken would have won in a landslide. Of course he had every right to run, but maybe it will not send Coleman back to the Senate. I am crossing my fingers and everything else.

[CitizenPatriot]

10. and what he did to the sugary refinery workers

and his horrific ads against Martin, calling him soft on crime against children when Martin's own daughter was kidnapped. UGH. I figure Chambliss exists to remind us of what a GOP victory would look like. Best not to let the pain die away completely, lest we forget the destruction. So, thanks to the ethics-violating, golf-playing (when he should be in session dealing with 9/11, etc), draft-dodging chambliss for filling this role so well.

[Mark E. Smith]

8. Norm Coleman during his brief tenure as a roadie for Grand Funk Railroad

[ElsewheresDaughter]

15. he looked even creepier back then

[Ishoutandscream2]

16. To this old freak, he looked pretty cool

What the hell happened? How did he become a Repuke?

[Mark E. Smith]

17. It gets worse ...

Norm was also a campus anti-war activist.

[Ishoutandscream2]

19. What a crying shame.

As he grew older, he lost his mind. Sad.

[StopTheNeoCons]

11. At thisa site, Franken leads by a substantial margin

http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/SenateR...

[Mudoria]

18. It's too bad they couldn't have just had a runoff election

It would have been a lot simpler and odds are the result would have been more clear. This is just a mess of monumental proportions regardless of who wins.

[depakid]

21. So much for the claim that Minnesota has the best election laws in the country...

[cloudythescribbler]

20. Here's some current info, less than 15 minutes ago from Franken Campaign

Franken camp as of now claims TEN vote lead ...
apparently taking into account the 133 vote fiasco that took place after the info in the OP was released.

Here's a current email from the Al Franken camp. The time stamp on the email is:

Date: 12/04/2008 1:11:57 P.M. Eastern Standard Time



Dear Friend,

I wanted to share the latest news on the recount here in Minnesota: Our latest internal report has Al Franken leading Norm Coleman by 10 votes with some 56,000 ballots left to be included in the hand count.

Now, that number is going to change between now and the end of the recount - but we're confident that when all the votes have been counted, Al Franken will be the next Senator from Minnesota.

But ensuring that every vote is counted will require constant vigilance and a tough stance from our campaign. Already, we've seen ballots going missing, absentee votes improperly rejected, and the Coleman campaign attempting to game the system by challenging hundreds of extra ballots (which, by the way, is the reason some published reports falsely suggest Coleman is leading by several hundred votes).

We won't let anyone disenfranchise Minnesota voters. That's why we have Franken observers at every recount table. That's why we've kept our campaign headquarters running at full power around the clock. That's why we've built a team of recount experts ready to defend voters' rights at every turn.

And that's why we still need your help.

Your contribution - of $20, $50, $100, or whatever you can afford - enables us to equip thousands of volunteers, keep our headquarters open, pay legal bills, and ensure that every single vote is counted fairly.

PLEASE CLICK HERE TO MAKE A CONTRIBUTION TODAY!

This could wind up being the closest Senate race in U.S. history. Today, I'm happy to report that Al Franken is in the lead - and we think we'll net even more votes when the state canvassing board examines challenged ballots in the next phase, scheduled to begin on December 16.

But at the end of the day, it will come down to just a few votes. And our ability to ensure that no Minnesotan is disenfranchised depends on what resources we can bring to bear. In other words, it depends on you.

PLEASE MAKE A CONTRIBUTION TO OUR RECOUNT FUND TODAY!

Thank you again for everything you've done so far. I'll keep you posted on developments on the recount as the process continues.

Yours truly,

Stephanie Schriock
Campaign Manager
Al Franken for Senate

[Rhiannon12866]

22. Great news! Thank you!

I hope so much that Al wins! *fingers crossed*

I just can't see how anyone in their right mind would vote for Norm Coleman...