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Which presidential polls were most accurate?

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DeepModem Mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-05-08 10:01 PM
Original message
Which presidential polls were most accurate?
Source: Houston Chronicle

The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.

The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on pollster.com.

On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama's strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points -- 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama's final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two -- Rasmussen and Pew -- were spot on.

Here is the list --

1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
6T. ARG (10/25-27)*
8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)
8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
13. FOX (11/1-2)
14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
18. Marist College (11/3)
19. CBS (10/31-11/2)
20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
23. Newsweek (10/22-23)

Read more: http://blogs.chron.com/txpotomac/2008/11/the_list_which...
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msongs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-05-08 10:04 PM
Response to Original message
1. didn't 538.com have it correct to the tenths??? nt
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DeepModem Mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-05-08 10:07 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Yes, I think they were accurate, but this study apparently doesn't include 538. nt
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Texas Mom Donating Member (45 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-05-08 11:38 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. 538 NOT a pollster
It analyzes others' polls and runs statistical probabilities.
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DeepModem Mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-06-08 12:11 AM
Response to Reply #4
7. Thanks, Texas Mom -- welcome to DU!!!
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defendandprotect Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-05-08 10:21 PM
Response to Original message
3. Actually, I'm inclined to think they underestimated Obama's popularity ...
Edited on Wed Nov-05-08 10:21 PM by defendandprotect
and overestimated McCain's ...

How did all of this jibe with EXIT POLLS --- ???
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elocs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-05-08 11:41 PM
Response to Original message
5. Thanks, I was wondering about this exact question. Let's remember it for next time. n/t
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alfredo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-05-08 11:41 PM
Response to Original message
6. Rasmussen's daily tracking was excellent.
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Catch22Dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-06-08 06:21 AM
Response to Original message
8. Nate Silver deserves a lot of credit too
Nate is not a pollster, so obviously shouldn't be included on a list of pollsters, but his analysis of the polls on fivethirtyeight.com should be commended. He tweaked his model early and often and made it extremely accurate. In the end, this is his model vs. the final outcome.

Nate's final map:


Actual outcome:
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DeepModem Mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-06-08 08:52 AM
Response to Reply #8
9. Thanks, Catch22Dem! Nate is amazing. nt
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customerserviceguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-06-08 09:37 AM
Response to Reply #8
10. I was curious who was most accurate in state-by-state polls
and this seems to have answered the question. Only Indiana' flip from red to blue did not get accounted for by the above model.

Still, it would be fun to see a statistical analysis of the the percentages projected for each state, and an overall ranking of accuracy on that level.
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stanwyck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-06-08 03:32 PM
Response to Original message
11. But Sean and Drudge assured us "the most accurate
is TIPP/IBD". Yep. For the two weeks proceeding the election, Hannity and Drudge kept the drumbeat going that "the most accurate poll TIPP/IBD" had the race within 2 pts.
Damn. Those guys are almost never wrong about anything.
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