Gallup Daily: Obama’s Lead Widens Some on All Bases

[Faygo Kid]

Source: Gallup

PRINCETON, NJ, Oct. 31 -- The political landscape could be improving for Barack Obama in the waning days of the campaign. Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Oct. 28-30 shows him with an eight percentage point lead over John McCain among traditional likely voters -- 51% to 43% -- his largest margin to date using this historical Gallup Poll voter model.

Since Tuesday, McCain's support among traditional likely voters has dropped by four points (from 47% to 43%), Obama's has risen by two points (from 49% to 51%), and the percentage of undecided voters has increased from 4% to 6%.

Thursday night's interviews are the first conducted entirely after Obama's widely viewed 30-minute prime-time campaign ad, which ran on several television networks Wednesday evening. Obama held a substantial lead over McCain in last night's polling, however no greater than what Gallup found on Wednesday.

Obama's lead among expanded likely voters is only slightly greater than that seen among traditional likely voters. He now leads McCain by nine-points, 52% to 43%, using this looser definition that does not factor in whether respondents have voted in past elections, but strictly relies on their reported level of interest and intention to vote in the 2008 election.


Read more: http://www.gallup.com/poll/111679/Gallup-Daily-Obamas-L...

[kestrel91316]

1. Watch the MSM report this as the race tightening further.

[goodboy]

2. man...when you break 50 among likely voters, it's about the best news. (nt)

[progressoid]

3. Bullshit - This morning Fox told me that McCain tied Obama in the white Catholic group.

We're dooooomed.

[stoge18]

4. To quote Butthead, with some liberties taken:

"Of course it's true Beavis, I saw it on Fox News."

[norepubsin08]

12. I heard from one conservative local newscaster

That McCain leads overwhelmingly with White, Upper Middleclass, Surburban, Anit-abortion Catholics

[progressoid]

15. They must all have read the same memo.

I heard a variation on the radio this morning too. Then again on Faux Newz when I saw the TV.

[VaYallaDawg]

19. Especially those born on Wednesdays.

[Kierkegaard]

20. Were they left or right handed?

[barbtries]

39. lol

that is so funny...

[jimmybama]

5. WATCHOUT!!!

McCain still leads 99.1 to Obama's .9 % in a poll of dumbshit,
religious extremists, racist,redneck bigots and wackos!!! They
are the ones that elected Bush. TWICE!!!!!

[Claire Beth]

6. welcome to DU!

[olddad56]

13. you forgot to mention the voting machines in you list

[On the Road]

36. Actually, It Looks Like

Barack's gaining a lot of ground in that segment, too.

[marew]

7. I am just so frigging scared!

I cannot emotionally go through what I did after the last two presidential elections. I was so depressed. Please, it can't happen again!

[bdamomma]

18. I feel the same way, but remember the repigs are desperate

and the media is in the back pockets of these slimeballs so they will say anything. I hate those polls but one thing I know Obama is ahead.

[Fluffdaddy]

27. I hear you buddy. I did not read a paper or watch the news for weeks after 2004

[xxqqqzme]

29. I can't even watch

Recount on HBO. Too painful.

[stanwyck]

33. I couldn't watch it, either. Considering the aftermath

of the Florida debacle, it's just too agonizing to watch.

[demosincebirth]

30. I lost interest in any type of news for months.

[RedSpartan]

8. Gallup Daily: Obama’s Lead Widens Some on All Bases

Source: Gallup

PRINCETON, NJ -- The political landscape could be improving for Barack Obama in the waning days of the campaign. Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Oct. 28-30 shows him with an eight percentage point lead over John McCain among traditional likely voters -- 51% to 43% -- his largest margin to date using this historical Gallup Poll voter model.


Read more: http://www.gallup.com/poll/111679/Gallup-Daily-Obamas-L...

---

Gallup's "traditional" likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous elections.



-------------------------------------------

Gallup's "expanded" likely voter model determines likely voters based only on current voting intentions. This estimate would take into account higher turnout among groups of voters traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and minorities.



-------------------------------------------

Gallup Daily election tracking reports the percentage of registered voters who say they would support each candidate if the presidential election were held today.



-------------------------------------------

[hurtsolong]

9. Traditional LV +8, Expanded LV +9, RV +11

If this is tightening, I don't know what is NOT!

[tekisui]

10. Hop on the bandwagon! Not much time left!

[Hokie]

11. Gallup is an important poll becasue of the sample size

As someone astutely posted this morning pollsters really want these final polls to be correct because they are staking their good reputations on these numbers. They get graded on Tuesday. Gallup's 3 day sample size is just under 3000. Lots of the other polls that get all kinds of attention have much smaller sample sizes of around 500. I find it fascinating that Obama's led in registered voters has been almost constant and all McCain gains the last week were in the likely voter numbers. Now the numbers are starting to converge and that is another thing that gives me confidence that the real number is 8 - 10 points.

[davidlynch]

14. This Is Very Bad News for Freepers--Very Bad Day Indeed n/t

[jennied]

16. :)

[louis-t]

17. Sad when your candidate has to lead by 10

to make sure the stolen votes, suppressed votes, discarded registrations, rigged machines, lack of machines in urban areas, purged voter rolls, and attemps to misinform are overcome.

[montanto]

21. and even at 10 we're still scared shitless.

[dennysp]

23. It is what it is. That's all. No more. Feels good, though.

[Deep13]

22. You folks in MO, FL, CO, OH, MT, VA and NC know what to do!

Those are states trending our way, but they are not "in the bag."

Also, there is a chance to take IN and ND too. If it wasn't McC's home state, AZ would be in the barely-blue column.

[bsiebs]

24. uhh...CA is in the bag...count on it

Not too sure yet about Prop 8, but Obama has nothing to worry about in California

On Edit: OK, you changed it from CA to CO ... THAT makes sense.. but I feel pretty good about him winning CO as well

[Deep13]

25. I fixed that. I meant CO. nt

[ChiciB1]

31. Obama Had A VERY VERY Big Rally Here Yesterday In Almost The Reddest

of RED counties in Florida!! Paper says 12,000 turnout and the paper isn't all that kind to Democrats these days!!

McLoonery was here about a week ago, he had around 3,500 so there must be SOMETHING going on! I've lived here for a long, long time, since about 1978 and I have NEVER seen this much support for a National candidate or ANY Democrat in my life!

Total registered Repukes around 118,000 to 85,000 Democrats! Very long lines for early voting and I'm working polls on election day! We shall see! Still my stomach is in knots even THIS EARLY! My anxiety level is giving me an upset stomach and head-ache all the time!

If Obama gets screwed, I know he will FIGHT BACK... but just from my perspective, "we the people" need to FIGHT BACK just as hard! NOT EVER AGAIN will I sit still... I may not have enough money to get to D.C., but REVOLT is something I will NEED to do!!!

[L. Coyote]

26. The BIG NEWS is the polling of early voting.

Obama is winning by such a huge landslide already, Republicans can just stay home on Wed., the day they vote.

"Barack Obama has opened up a 17 point lead in Public Policy Polling’s
final pre-election survey of New Mexico."

PPP: Obama headed for a big win in New Mexico
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

[aquart]

28. Didn't that state go dubiously to Bush last time?

[barbtries]

40. yes

NM was stolen in 2004. greg palast, armed madhouse.

[jeff30997]

32. "undecided voters "

When I see that I can't help it,I want to scream:

WTF are you waiting for to DECIDE ?

But then I remember that some peoples that are included

in this category are the ones who refuse to answer the

poll,to give their opinion.

But for the true "Undecided",4 days before the election,

I still want to shake them and yell:What are you going to do

Tuesday ? Flip a coin? Gee!

[Laelth]

34. How very strange. The number of undecideds increased?

I am guessing those are (R)s who are having second thoughts.

Regardless, good for us!

The United States is a LIBERAL Country.



-Laelth

[Lifelong Protester]

41. Yep, those who can't say it out loud yet...

but like Kristol and Brooks, are going Obama!

[prostock69]

35. What I am praying for.....

Is that Rebpulican voters will be so discouraged with all "elitist" Republicans that are jumping ship left and right and with Faux News' own Neil Cooovooto slamming McCain on his inability to pick a direction in regards to the economy, that they will stay home on election day and concede defeat to Obama. Example: If you know your team is going to lose the football game, would you waste your time going to the game?

[crunchgarcia]

37. This is the finest story I've ever read.

I'm in the middle of Texas. Deep In The Heart Of.

So this is really, really good news.

[barbtries]

38. my son's high school ran the election yesterday

is that called a straw poll? anyhow. 65% OBAMA 35% the other guy.