Gallup Daily: Obama Lead Among Likely Voters 5 to 7 Points - Now up 50% to 45% in traditional model

[RedSpartan]

Source: Gallup

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama holds a statistically significant lead over John McCain in both Gallup likely voter models, according to Oct. 27-29 Gallup Poll Daily tracking. In the traditional model, which defines likely voters based on current voting intention and past voting behavior, Obama holds a 50% to 45% lead. In the expanded model, in which only current voting intentions are considered, his lead is 51% to 44%.


Read more: http://www.gallup.com/poll/111658/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Le...

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Gallup's "traditional" likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous elections.



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Gallup's "expanded" likely voter model determines likely voters based only on current voting intentions. This estimate would take into account higher turnout among groups of voters traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and minorities.



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Gallup Daily election tracking reports the percentage of registered voters who say they would support each candidate if the presidential election were held today.



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[lojack]

1. Put a fork in it...

... FINALLY, it's done. Can't wait until Nov. 5th.

[BayjanDem]

5. I hate these numbers

Not because O is leading. But I'm concerned about even 1 person thinking it's in the bag and staying home on Tuesday.

[tclambert]

8. I think over-confidence and despair cancel each other out.

Lazy people will find a reason not to vote. If they think the election is out of reach, the over-confident may stay home, but so will the ones in despair. A really close election might bring out a few more voters. But not if it rains. Democracy called on account of weather. Sad.

There's also the historic factor. A vote for Obama will be historic. Maybe that cancels the Bradley effect. Sometimes I wonder if all these "effects" are just made-up rationalizations by pollsters to explain their errors.

[melody]

9. 2 friends with depression actually decided to vote BECAUSE of the good numbers

Not everyone is compelled by the same forces. Inertia is a serious problem with depressed folk.

[DemsUnited]

2. 5 - 7% really sounds about right. Here's hoping Obama keeps this stable through Nov 4!

[UnrepentantUnitarian]

3. "Solid....solid as Barack!"

At this critical moment, no significant movement. Obama keeps his 50 percent, and even those ridiculous "traditional" numbers have recently moved up from 2 percent to 5.

[DemNoir]

4. Oh darn

That traditional LV was the last thread of hope for the wingnuts.

Looks like this is another.

GALLUP SHOCK

[yellowcanine]

6. Unchanged since early October.........

[tclambert]

7. You, sir, or puppy, got it right.

The national tracking numbers are right back where they were at the beginning. The wiggling in those lines appears to be just noise in the signal. All those debates didn't change anything.

At the state polling level, though, Obama keeps improving his electoral position. Slow but steady. A state here, a state there. The electoral vote will be in the landslide, even watershed range.