Poll says Gordon Smith’s re-election odds are ‘slim’

[depakid]

Source: Portland Tribune

Democrat Jeff Merkley is poised to topple incumbent Republican Gordon Smith in Oregon’s contentious U.S. Senate race, according to Portland pollster Tim Hibbitts. Merkley, the Oregon House of Representatives speaker from Portland, leads Smith 45 percent to 40 percent, according to an Oct. 23-25 poll for the Portland Tribune and Fox 12. Constitution Party candidate Dave Brownlow has the support of 3 percent of Oregon voters.

“As of now, Jeff Merkley’s the favorite,” said Hibbitts, one of Oregon’s most respected nonpartisan pollsters.
Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc. interviewed 500 registered voters around the state. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent.

Hibbitts pointed out there have been eight other polls of the race in the last month, and seven concluded Merkley has a comparable lead. “I think (Smith’s) chances of winning are slim,” Hibbitts said. He stressed that the race is not over, but Merkley has the momentum, and many Oregonians have already voted. “There isn’t a thing (Smith) can do differently with a week to go,” Hibbitts said. “I think the cake is baked.”

<snip>

In one ominous sign for Smith, Merkley has pulled even with him outside Multnomah, Washington and Clackamas counties and the Willamette Valley south of Portland. Those areas include eastern, central and southern Oregon as well as the coast.

Read more: http://www.portlandtribune.com/news/story.php?story_id=...

[saltpoint]

1. Good. I won't miss Gordon Smith one bit.

And Merkley is a strong candidate.

Recommended.

[gratuitous]

2. Oh, wouldn't that be delicious

The polls are pretty consistently against Mr. Smith, who hasn't been above 50% all election season, which is usually the bright line that indicates an incumbent in trouble. Included in the race is third party candidate Dave Brownlow bleeding off a crucial few percent of Smith's usual votes, and it looks very good for Merkley.

It looks like for the first time Oregonians aren't buying Smith's "moderate" bullshit. It's worked with depressing regularity in two previous elections, but this time around Oregonians seem to prefer the genuine Democratic article rather than Smith's ersatz skin.

[codjh9]

3. Excellent! I think OR and NM will both have 2 Dems instead of 1-1, and that's the way it should be!

[Ferret Mike]

27. Actually two Pacific Green candidates would be better.

But then again, like you I am biased, I am proud to be a Green.

[Stargazer09]

4. That's great news!

I voted for Merkley, and I hope that Smith loses this election. It's time for a change!

[Tutonic]

5. Good. Change you can believe in.

[swishyfeet]

6. Merkley will ride Obama's coat tails...

If non-stop disgusting negative ads from Smith haven't given him a lead yet, nothing will.

I especially love how Smith is also running attack ads at the independent candidate, as if someone voting 3rd party gives a flying crap about what Gordon Smith thinks.

[funflower]

12. Right. Like your Constitution Party type is going to believe Brownlow is "liberal."

Apparently, the repubs' strategy is to pull most or all of the Constitution Party faithful into the republican camp. Time to go pack peas, Gordo!

[davidinalameda]

7. I thought this was about the current British PM

it's been a LONG day

[LeftishBrit]

17. Me too, that's why I clicked on the thread.

I was a bit puzzled as the election isn't soon. Unfortunately, Gordon Brown might well lose (not that I love him; I just love the Tories even less!); though recent polls have suggested that the gap between Labour and Tories is decreasing a bit.

[xxqqqzme]

22. I came here for the exact same reason.

[WheelWalker]

8. Yes. The cake is baked, indeed.

[depakid]

10. The fact that Merkley's polling close to even in rural areas suggests Smith is done

Republicans for statewide office need BIG margins there and decent ones in the Willamette Valley to offset Portland metro and Eugene.

[Pastiche423]

9. I was part of one of those polls

My 1st poll ever!

We are going all blue!

[MissB]

18. Pretty sure I was, too.

Long poll, maybe 5 minutes.

[Oldenuff]

11. WOOOOHOOOO!!

This is good news to hear!!It won't bother me a bit to see him gone...gone...gone.


(I'm actually not fan of Wyden either,I'd like to see him replaced as well.)

[funflower]

13. No thanks to Ron Wyden, who is busy covering his own back side as usual. n/t

Wish he'd retire so Blumenauer could have his seat.

[Ferret Mike]

14. The Repugs did in the Tiger of the Senate, Wayne Morse in 1968 - so this payback is long due.

The dumb rich Mormon is toast. Oregon is Obama and Merkley country.

[depakid]

15. The guy who narrowly defeated Morse, Bob Packwood- resigned in disgrace

but, you're right- it'll be damn nice if progressives can capture that seat again. 'Bout time.

[Ferret Mike]

16. Yes, I know all about Packrat

I am from Eugene, Oregon and met former Senator Morse in 1972 when he was running against Hatfield to try to return to the Senate. We still were stuck with Packrat way too long, and Wayne Lyman Morse was just not another senator.

It's still one of my pet resentments, I'll feed it if I want to.

http://farm1.static.flickr.com/48/132404273_f8f083a95f....

Statue of Wayne Morse at Lane County Courthouse in the Wayne Morse Free Speech Plaza.

[David__77]

19. With mail-ins, isn't it even more assured?

I mean, haven't most people mailed or filled out their ballots at this point, or no?

[davepdx]

20. The number of ballots returned so far are fewer than they were in 2004.

The official number of ballots returned as of the end of Oct. 27th were 522,188 (cumulative return of 24%). The number of ballots returned as of the same point in the process during the general election in 2004 was 644,753 (cumulative return of 30%). Call your friends to make sure they have voted.

You can check the daily return statistics here and the historical return statistics here.

[depakid]

25. That's likely due to the ballot measures

A factor that's been overlooked with respect to early returns is that there are a LOT of confusing and conflicting initiatives on the the 2008 ballot.

Considerably more- and more complicated ones than were on the ballot in 2004.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Oregon_ballot_meas...

People in Oregon frequently discuss these measures among themselves, to sort out how to vote.

One can see evidence of this (as well as the confusion and uncertainty) in the comments under relevant articles in Oregon papers.

It's pretty fair supposition that many people who know how they're voting on the presidential and senate races are still undecided or haven't sat down to review the 12 separate statewide measures- along with whatever local measures they have.

[davepdx]

26. I believe that you are right about the ballot measures causing

a delay in the ballot returns. Before I read your reply I had been talking with a friend of mine at the Democratic Party of Oregon downtown and he said the same thing that you said regarding the ballot measures. We had 26 ballot measures in 2000 and the return rates were lower than this year at this point in the ballot return cycle. There were 8 ballot measures in 2004 and the return rate was higher than this year at this point in the ballot return cycle. Your point is well taken about how complicated the ballot measures are this year compared to 2004.

[stubtoe]

21. No, because ballots are not opened till 8:00pm Election Day.

Until then, all eggs remain unhatched. But the buzz about a Gordo defeat is sweet music to anticipate a win by!

[Parche]

23. I Voted For Merkley Last Week!!!

I love our vote by male!!!!!

[BadGimp]

24. The attack ads have reached the level of intolerable

The GOP and Smith are carpet bombing the airwaves trying to slime Merkley.

To be fair the Dems and Merkley are doing the same to Smith but with a little more class.

Last night I literally turned off the TV during the Lakers, Blazers game. To be fair the Blazers were getting smacked around pretty good by the Lakers.

Not a good night.