Democrats headed toward big gains in House, Senate

[onehandle]

Source: AP

WASHINGTON – Democrats are on track for sizable gains in both houses of Congress on Nov. 4, according to strategists in both parties, although only improbable Southern victories can produce the 60-vote Senate majority they covet to help them pass priority legislation.

A poor economy, President Bush's unpopularity, a lopsided advantage in fundraising and Barack Obama's robust organizational effort in key states are all aiding Democrats in the final days of the congressional campaign.

"I don't think anybody realized it was going to be this tough" for Republicans, Sen. John Ensign, chairman of the party's senatorial campaign committee said recently. "We're dealing with an unpopular president (and) we have a financial crisis," he added.

"You've got Republican incumbent members of the Congress" trying to run away from Bush's economic policies, said Maryland Rep. Chris Van Hollen, who chairs the House Democratic campaign committee. "And they can't run fast enough. I think it will catch up with many of them."

Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081025/ap_on_el_ge/congres...

[mwb970]

1. "I don't think anybody realized it was going to be this tough," he says.

How could they not realize this? It's like "Who would have thought they would fly airplanes into buildings?"

[proReality]

2. I'm all for Democrats gaining seats, but...

I have to wonder how many of them are Blue Dog Dems. I know the one in my district, who is apparently running slightly ahead of his Republican opponent, is definitely Repub Lite.

[Lucky Luciano]

3. Blue dogs are ok in the senate because being filibuster-proof

is critical.

[AndyTiedye]

4. As Long as the "Blue Dogs" Actually Vote With Us

That has been a problem in the past.

[Stevepol]

5. Dems should not count their chickens before they hatch: Diebold counts the actual chickens.

[ProgressiveEconomist]

6. K&R. A 60-seat Senate majority is almost in sight, according to the article.

We currently have a 51-seat majority (counting Sanders and Lieberman).

Three turnovers of open seats are pretty much in the bag:
1 VA: (Open - R)
2 NM: (Open - R)
3 CO: (Open - R)

Four R incumbents outside the South are in deep trouble:
4 NH: (Sununu - R)
5 MN: (Coleman - R)
6 OR: (Smith - R)
7 AK: (Stevens - R)

Thus a 60 seat majority wihout Lieberman would require 3 victories in 4 Southern states that may be in play:
8 NC: (Dole - R)
9 GA: (Chambliss - R)
10 MS: (Wicker - R)
11 KY: (McConnell - R)

IMO, Dole is the most vulnerable of the four. If Chambliss falls too, Lieberman will be able to trade whatever he wants for cloture every time. Only if Wicker and/or McConnell lose too do Democrats get to kick Joe L to the curb.

[Hawkowl]

7. Not so fast...

Expect the dems to recruit other moderate rethuglican turncoats for Lieberman's spot. At least one of the remaining republican senators will switch parties if offered a powerful committee chairmanship. I'm surprised I haven't heard this mentioned before. In any case I expect the dems to kick Lieberman to the curb.

[Dark]

8. Maybe they should've thought about that when they staunchly supported bush in everthing.

n/t