Obama lead on McCain grows to 12 points (Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby)

[UpInArms]

Source: Reuters

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama's lead over Republican rival John McCain has grown to 12 points in the U.S. presidential race, with crucial independent and women voters increasingly moving to his side, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Thursday.

With less than two weeks before the November 4 election, Obama leads McCain 52 percent to 40 percent among likely voters in the latest three-day tracking poll, which had a margin of error of 2.9 points.

Obama has made steady gains over the last four days and has tripled his lead on McCain in the past week of polling.

"Obama's expansion is really across the board," pollster John Zogby said. "It seems to be among almost every demographic group."

The Illinois senator saw his lead among women -- who are expected to play a decisive role in this election -- increase to 18 points from 16 points on Wednesday.

And independent voters, who have been the target of intense campaign efforts by both sides, have now swung behind Obama by a 30-point margin, 59 percent to 29 percent.

Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE49J0...

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That AP thing is just pathetic

[bluestateguy]

1. This is not accurate

Zogby only has Obama up by 11.9%.

Liberal media bias again!

[Hope And Change]

3. LOL.

[Enthusiast]

6. This could be a ploy

to get our voters to stay home. But, I love those numbers.

[machI]

9. Good news is Good news, let's take it and run. n/t

[Liberal_in_LA]

2. 12 point lead among 'likely voters'...that's a landslide in the making

[ksimons]

4. keep thinking that the polling formula will be re-written after this election nt

[shotten99]

5. Zogby should be embarrassed

I do like his numbers though.
0 faith in them however.

[RBInMaine]

7. Zogby is often inaccurate, but this does basically match the trend of other polls.

[tclambert]

14. But is the trend additive or multiplicative?

3% to 12% in three days is +9%, or 4x. If we go with +9% every three days, then 15 days puts it at +45% on election day (Obama 72.5%, McCain 27.5%). If we go with 4x, then we get +3072%.

I'm predicting a slight increase in Obama's lead, but nothing like either of those exercises in waterboarding statistics. My prediction is based on campaign capabilities from here on in. No more debates. Massive fundraising advantage for Obama. 30 minute block of TV time bought by Obama, unmatched by McCain. More local offices operating for Obama in most battleground states than for McCain. 3 to 1 advantage in TV ads for Obama in some battleground states. And the Palin effect. All of that in Obama's favor adds up to some increase, but not +3072%.

[Royal Oak Rog]

8. I've been following his poll also

He was at 3 points on Monday. His numbers are insane, but I do like the trend!

[mwb970]

10. The Columbus Dispatch has an article today featuring the AP poll.

"McCain and Obama Running Tight Race" is the headline. The first five paragraphs are all about the "tightening race" and the current "neck and neck polling" from AP. Then, in the sixth paragraph, they briefly mention other reputable polls that have Obama ahead by 9, 10, and 14 points before returning to the AP poll. There is no mention of why the story focuses on the outlier instead of on the mainstream polling.

The Dispatch has also been running columns by the emetic Jonah Goldberg just about every day now. As you may know, every single column by the Doughy Pantload can be summarized as "Republicans good, Democrats bad", including today's steaming pile, headlined "Media Show Disdain For Joe the Plumber".

On top of this blatant media bias, we have to listen to constant whining from the McCain camp about the unfair "liberal media". They must not read the Dispatch, the only newpaper available in Columbus.

[tclambert]

11. Zogby interactive is the really unreliable one.

This is the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll, not their interactive one. FiveThirtyEight.com rates Zogby's regular poll about middle of the road (a +2.16 Pollster Introduced Error vs. average of +1.97). But Zogby interactive had over twice the error (+5.73 PIE). Can't find AP on Mr. Silver's list. I took a brief look at the AP poll's data. "All respondents" favored Obama by 47 to 37, a ten point spread. Somehow they converted this to a "likely voter" spread of 44 to 43.

Oh, wait, this just in. An AP poll of flying monkeys show the Wicked Witch of the West leading by a substantial margin.

[tblue37]

12. And yet in this morning's paper I see that the one outlier

poll, the one with obviously suspect demographics, that has them running neck and neck is being touted as evidence that Mccain has tightened the race since the debates, making it a toss-up. They really are working overtime to make it possible to steal the election.

I am so worried that they will manage to steal it--or at least to steal some of the House and Senate seats to prevent a filibuster-proof (and Lieberdweeb-proof) majority.

If they do steal it, I fear riots and repression--even martial law. The fact that there have been so many reports of votes flipped to McCain (but of course NEVER to Obama!) really scares me, since in a normal, functional society that would be the main news headline 24/7, but here in our Third World country, only avid internet readers ever hear about it.

[lazyriver]

13. Good news. Let's hope it's 20% by election day. Every percentage point

will make it that much harder for them to steal.

[Tyler Generation]

15. Na-Uh, this is lies from the librul media

The race is tightening!

[Maineman]

16. Polls do not count. People must VOTE.

[DeepModem Mom]

17. K&R

[Mark E. Smith]

18. AP = Absolutely Perplexed