Prediction markets now betting big on Obama

[UpInArms]

Source: Reuters

WASHINGTON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Traders betting on future events in the political prediction markets are overwhelmingly predicting a Barack Obama victory in the U.S. presidential election, giving the Illinois Democrat a better than 80 percent chance of winning.

The traders were betting on Wednesday that Republican presidential candidate John McCain had less than a 20 percent chance of victory, a big change from a month ago, when the Arizona senator was seen as having a 47 percent chance of capturing the White House.

The drop in McCain's fortunes in the predictions markets coincides with the global financial crisis and the U.S. presidential debates. Obama is seen by many as the stronger candidate on economic issues, and polls showed many believed he won the first two debates.

Opinion polling in the U.S. presidential race has shown a shift toward Obama during the same period.

On the Dublin-based Intrade predictions markets on Wednesday, traders in Obama contracts were giving him an 82 percent chance of winning the election. Traders in McCain contracts were giving him a 17 percent chance of victory.

Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1535032520081016

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[Richard D]

1. Wonder what it'll be tomorrow

Probably 90 percent or more.

[AndyTiedye]

2. Intrade has Obama at 84.1 Now

[jimlup]

3. Here's one we can all play with funny money!

http://news.us.newsfutures.com/market/market.html?symbol=PREZADEM&rand=170#chart\\

You can sign up to get $3000 play money. It's fun and you get to make a bunch of play money when Barack wins!

[truthisfreedom]

4. I thought it was poignant when McCain shook Barack's hand tonight after the debate

and thanked him profusely. I think McCain knows it's over and he was thanking Barack for not embarrassing him or humiliating him in any way.

[Raschel]

5. I think McCain was just trying to show manners because he was slammed in the last debate.